Gates of heaven or gates of hell? 2016/17 attendances

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Mentioned it on a couple of threads but wondered whether it deserves one of its own: how many do you think we'll get through the turnstiles next season?

It's not just an idle query; given our finances it has to be a very important consideration. In purely economic terms, maximising that revenue stream could go in one of two ways: does the vendor keep prices high in order to squeeze those customers who will remain anyway? Or do they drop the cost in the hope of maintaining decent footfall?

It's interesting to read that Wigan, who are looking disturbingly like getting promoted – despite yesterday's highly amusing loss at dropbound Donny (previously winless in 17) they're six points clear of the playoffs with four to play (although Walsall have a game in hand - Come On You Saddlers, I've always liked Pete Waterman, etc) - are *cutting* the price for every ST next season, with renewals costing £179 and new STs £199.

I do worry that there will be a lack of bums on our seats next season. According to soccerstats.com our average attendance this campaign has been 15,074 (range: 12,681 to 18,423), the division's seventh lowest (Rotherham have the only sub-10k average, then it's Brentford, Huddersfield, Preston, McDons and Blackburn).

But those numbers don't always ring true. The official attendance yesterday was 18,196 of which 4,302 were Boro = 13,894 Bolton fans; that may well be the number of tickets sold, inc STs, but it's Town Hall steps butt-baring time if there were actually 14k in the home sections. (Marc Iles seemed somewhat surprised, while our old friend Batman was quick to respond.)



Obviously it was on Sky, we're already relegated etc etc, but surely it's very possible that all those who aren't coming to games for which they have already paid won't bother renewing next season.

In which case, how many? History can only tell us so much, because there's so many moving parts: macroeconomics (unemployment, demographics, alternative entertainment) change, and so do footballing fortunes (crowds will fluctuate with league position). But this page from European Football Statistics, showing our average attendance by season, makes interesting reading.

The first time we dipped into this division, we were relegated in 1971 with an average of 8706; we then finished 7th with an average of 8173 before GoingUpGoingUpAsChampions with 13928.



When after success under Armfield and Greaves, we slipped back down again - sliding from Second to Fourth under McGovern, Wright and Neal – the attendances took an understandable downward curve. (Again, here be macro and micro: it was the worst-ever time for football attendances generally, and we were in severe sewage financially, selling off half the Embankment to the Co-op.) That first season (1983/84), in which we finished 10th, we averaged 5892; then it was 4951 (finishing 17th), 4847 (18th) and 4851 (21st and down).



The last time we were in the third tier, getting promoted under Bruce Rioch, we averaged 9062 – and that was 50% up on the previous campaign, Phil Neal's last (which wasn't as uniformly bad as you might remember: having just signed Andy Walker we were in the shake-up for a third successive play-off campaign until the high-profile Cup battles with Southampton took their toll; we only won one of the last 11 games, amusingly spiking Stoke's attempted automatic promotion to the Paddock choir's accompaniment of "We'll Meet Again"). Taken as a block, the average attendances for the five-season period passing upwards through the Third Division under Neal and then Rioch were 5528, 7286 (playoffs), 7277 (playoffs), 6030 and 9062 (automatic promotion).



Obviously the average attendance is a broad-brush measurement, and a lot depends on what happens during the season. I suspect the management will be happy that it'll be such a northern-based division, which might mean more away fans and possibly fewer overnight stays away. But last time we were in this division, even a relatively successful season (at much lower ticket prices even considering inflation: I think it was £5 for adults) didn't always get that many through the gates. It's worth a closer perusal of that first Rioch season.

According to Bolton Nuts' version of Alan Sheppard's much-missed bwfcstats.com, we only got a five-figure gate for two of our fist 18 home games that season: 11438 vs Burnley, 11493 vs Wigan; for the visits of Reading, Bournemouth and Hull there were fewer than 5,000 on. Despite the FA Cup run and us winning most home games, interest only really picked up in early April: four of the last five home games were five-figure – Stockport 13773, Swansea on Easter Monday 10854, Chester 8514, Stoke 19238, Preston 21720. Of the total seasonal home attendance of 208426, those last five games account for 74,099 or more than a third; out another way, the average attendance for Rioch's first 18 home league games was 7,462.

To quote the De La Soul sample me and my Paddock pals were listening to at the time, "What does it all mean?" In truth, I'm not sure, but I'm not confident we'll be well-supported next season. While I don't envy the new board's balancing act, I think they have to strongly consider bringing ST prices down: despite the massaged attendance statistics, many fans have self-evidently decided not to bother coming any more. It's possible they, or other waverers, may be tempted by a reasonable ST price, which should at least encourage a few along to witness start of a new era. And to keep them coming back, the manager has to win, and keep winning, and keep us in the promotion hunt. Otherwise we might be back down towards 4,000 rattling round a stadium haunted by memories, and the closing of the upper tiers may become a necessity.

[officer_dibble]

Main thing for me that will impact attendances is winning some bloody games...its so depressing watching us lose week in, week out, season in, season put. 5 years of fecking dire football. Not worth a fiver most of the time.

[Harry Genshaw]

If our opening game is against southern opposition, and it's not been an exciting summer and pre season of comings and goings. I reckon there'd be less than 10000 on. Cost will be a big factor if we're not playing well. Start winning a few though and people will turn up, even at his seasons prices.

Best case scenario I'll predict 12-15,000 attendances.

We do a Blackpool though and it could be 6-9000

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Main thing for me that will impact attendances is winning some bloody games...its so depressing watching us lose week in, week out, season in, season put. 5 years of fecking dire football. Not worth a fiver most of the time.

Which is my worry. It took us a while to "usually" get 10k crowds after six years of improvement (87/88 Div 4 promotion; 88/89 consolidation & Sherpa Van win; 89/90 play-off semis; 90/91 play-off final; 91/92 a lull but 92/93 promotion).

If our opening game is against southern opposition, and it's not been an exciting summer and pre season of comings and goings. I reckon there'd be less than 10000 on. Cost will be a big factor if we're not playing well. Start winning a few though and people will turn up, even at his seasons prices.

If we're playing well, cost will be a factor. If we're playing badly, it will be huge. Not just for that tricky October Tuesday night game against Whothefuck United, but for persuading people to come semi-regularly. Once they lose the habit – a habit which is expensive and frequently frustrating– it takes a lot of badgering (from the club and friends) to get them back.

[Peter Thompson]

Main thing for me that will impact attendances is winning some bloody games...its so depressing watching us lose week in, week out, season in, season put. 5 years of fecking dire football. Not worth a fiver most of the time.

This 100%

The manager appointment & how we play as a team next season is really important, I don't think the fans will put up with the ambling, disjointed, leaderless, half hearted football we have played this season with the likes of Pratley, Moxey, Madine etc..., but if we get a decent manager who can install some real team spirit & passion, bring in some new interested, mentally strong athletic players (inc a couple of strikers) the fans will back the team.

If we start well & the fans can see some positive changes at the club, and players who actually play like they are professional footballers busting a gut to play for the club, playing for 90 mins we will easily get 11,000 / 12,000 home fans, if we start well & win a few early games and get into the top 10 we will get 14,000 IMO - the fans are desperate to see a winning team, who play like a team.

However, if we play like we did this season they will drop to 6,000 / 7,000 IMO, the fans have had enough of the dour, shite served up over the past 4-5 years and won't put up with it in League 1

[Lord Kangana]

Unless we're mired in a relegation dogfight, I'd be looking at something around the 10k mark as an average.

That figure is going to be held up by some local(ish) derbies with quite good away followings (we'll be seen as one of the division's big fish, titter ye not).

Although, if we have a shit pre-season with plenty of goings and not many comings, and then some lame warm-up games, coupled with more bad news on the financial health of the club, expect that number to fall by 1 or 2k.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

We always hear there'll be a crowd spike when we get a new manager. There were supposed to be thousands who'd re-emerge if we binned Megson for a friendly attacking manager. Same happened with Freedman (the famous "I'm not going again until..."), and crowds stayed the same under Lennon even before it turned to ratshit.

We didn't even get 14,000 all that reliably when we were winning under Allardyce in the division above, and since the glory he led us to we've had a decade of downward drift and more losses than wins. But I don't think it's as simple as saying the fans are desperate to see a winning team; I think many of them are drifting away anyway.

[Peter Thompson]

We always hear there'll be a crowd spike when we get a new manager. There were supposed to be thousands who'd re-emerge if we binned Megson for a friendly attacking manager. Same happened with Freedman (the famous "I'm not going again until..."), and crowds stayed the same under Lennon even before it turned to ratshit.

We didn't even get 14,000 all that reliably when we were winning under Allardyce in the division above, and since the glory he led us to we've had a decade of downward drift and more losses than wins. But I don't think it's as simple as saying the fans are desperate to see a winning team; I think many of them are drifting away anyway.

We started to get 14,000 home fans when Lennon 1st came and we started to compete & win a few games, a few who had stayed away over the past few seasons (me included) came back, and I believe would do again if we had a successful team on the pitch.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

We always hear there'll be a crowd spike when we get a new manager. There were supposed to be thousands who'd re-emerge if we binned Megson for a friendly attacking manager. Same happened with Freedman (the famous "I'm not going again until..."), and crowds stayed the same under Lennon even before it turned to ratshit.

We didn't even get 14,000 all that reliably when we were winning under Allardyce in the division above, and since the glory he led us to we've had a decade of downward drift and more losses than wins. But I don't think it's as simple as saying the fans are desperate to see a winning team; I think many of them are drifting away anyway.

We started to get 14,000 home fans when Lennon 1st came and we started to compete & win a few games, a few who had stayed away over the past few seasons (me included) came back, and I believe would do again if we had a successful team on the pitch.

I'm glad that you believe, but I'm not so sure.

The season he was sacked (2014/15), Freedman had five home league games: the attendance didn't dip below 13,630, and the average was 14,807. For comparison, the first five under Lennon attracted an average of 15,232 – in other words, 425 higher. And even that upward blip didn't last: within three months of Lennon arriving we were getting 15,869 against Wolves, then 12,790 against Fulham and 14,230 against Watford. And that's before we started losing...

The average attendance for Lennon's home games last season was 15,731, which was less than the average in Freedman's full season (2013/14) of 16,141; the average in the season before that (Coyle then Freedman) was 18,034. The average continues to go down year on year, and I think it's very optimistic indeed to say it will go up in the lower division.

[TANGODANCER]

New season approaching, new league, new manager and new players (well, all being well, of course). In addition. probably a new generation of supporters too. Time is flying past; ten years since Augustin Azuka Okocha (okay J.J then) graced our turf, five years in November since Gary Speed's sad demise (and eight years since he played for us) eight years since Nicolas Anelka pulled on a shirt for us, the same for Ivan Campo and three years since SuperKev left ( now 39). We've seen Big Sam, Gary Megson, Sammy Lee, Owen Coyle, Dougie Freedman and Neil Lennon all vacate the big blue chair and now, here we are, managerless, playerless, hopeless and in League One. We've lost major stars (cough) like Dan Shitu, Zat Knight and Cid and only seen a decent crowd when the opposition turn out in force. Phil Gartside has passed on, Eddie Davies has sold up and the new owners won the club in a raffle. So then, obviously, the only way is up.....I think....... .

[Athertonian]

Attendances next term wont be much difference from this season. Most have given up this term as a bad job and aired their frustrations earlier in the season. Most came to terms with relegation before Christmas and now look forward to the next one.

All depends on the Season Ticket prices and the mood of the fans pre season. Most I know have given up and put their focusses on a new adventure in league one. Quite a few of our fans wont have experienced this before and could come as a shock.

Seems the club are waiting to appoint a manager before they even announce ST for next season which is different to what the club normally does. A good appointment will mean more tickets sold and a surge of optimism.

[Bijou Bob]

Hands up all those willing to pay 28 quid to watch us play Fleetwood? No? Me neither. If the club increases season ticket prices, I predict average attendances around the 9k mark. If the club acts sensibly and reduces them to Wigan like levels, then 12k could well be on the cards. I suspect the club will act like they're doing us a favour and announce a spectacular "No price rise". Big deal.

The entire ticket process needs looking at. Which matches will be Cat A next year? It's a ridiculous concept in the Championship, let alone League 1.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Hands up all those willing to pay 28 quid to watch us play Fleetwood? No? Me neither. If the club increases season ticket prices, I predict average attendances around the 9k mark. If the club acts sensibly and reduces them to Wigan like levels, then 12k could well be on the cards. I suspect the club will act like they're doing us a favour and announce a spectacular "No price rise". Big deal.

The entire ticket process needs looking at. Which matches will be Cat A next year? It's a ridiculous concept in the Championship, let alone League 1.

Interesting question, that last one. I can see that Sheffield United is a big match by the traditional yardstick, and we'll have some derbies of varying size (Bury, Rochdale, Oldham), but other than that it's bald-men-and-combs: (at the moment) Barnsley, Scunny, Vale, Cov, Southend, Posh, Swindon, Chesterfield, Fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Northampton, Oxford plus three from Walsall-Burton-Bradford-Millwall-Gillingham and two from Bristol Rovers-Accy-Plymouth-Pompey-Wimbledon-Wycombe-Exeter-Orient. Even the clubs that are coming down with us (Charlton, MK Dons) would be lucky to break 1k following.

As well as the ST prices (on which I fully agree with you, Bob), I think the club must also look at the walk-up prices. I've pasted this season's prices below (in case they should somehow disappear from the official site); as ever there's a load of options but in short, it's £15 for a "D-Grade" game - which surely they all count as next season – tiptoeing up to £28-£35 (depending on where you are in the ground) for "A-Grade".

What would you advise they charge for matchday tickets? Personally I'd suggest a cost-benefit analysis on simplifying it; scrap the "grades" of games and return to the system where your preferred stands, not the opposition, dictates the price – so it's cheapest in the North Lower, then the Lofty/West Lower, etc. Say:
£14 in the North Lower
£16 in the Lofty/West Lower wing
£18 in the North Upper (and Lofty Lower centre, Lofty/West Upper wing)
£20 in the Lofty/West Upper centre.

Plus the usual Adult+Kid deals, and how about Sit With A Mate where if two of you renew/buy at the same time you get say 5-10% off? Might turn people into agents for the club, badgering friends into coming along - and if all goes well, that might start helping the atmosphere.

Obviously I have no idea how this will affect cashflow; I haven't got those numbers. But I think we have to play it very canny, and make the deal as attractive as possible.

[Prufrock]

Didn't they kindly "freeze" prices when a dropped from the prem. Another freeze would see folk paying prem prices to watch Rochdale. Hmm.

[LeverEnd]

I think they'll cut prices. They need people back on side. However the new regime is concerning me more by the day so who knows?

[Andy Waller]

If all the matches involve us, surely they're all category "D" games??

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

If all the matches involve us, surely they're all category "D" games??

Bristol City fans might disagree! "There's goals here, lads..."

[BWFC_Insane]

Yep, I've long argued that fans have drifted away not because of a poor manager or form but because we had a spike in attendances as we hit the "glass ceiling" of 6th in the premiership and the folk that started coming but weren't before, have naturally drifted away. There is of course going to be a correlation between results and attendances but DSB is right, simply doing "well" might not be enough to restored attendances entirely.

Cheap season tickets and the like are great, until it hits the income and means your already miniscule budget is virtually zero. Every penny counts now.

[Bijou Bob]

Amazingly, the Supporters trust have remained silent on this so far. The cash projections have gone in to the league, so the club must know how much they're going to charge.

Edit: According to Iles, the prices for next season are with the board for a decision but a reduction is expected.

[Andy Waller]

If all the matches involve us, surely they're all category "D" games??

Bristol City fans might disagree! "There's goals here, lads..."

Unless the categories stand for

A. Abject
B. Bloody rubbish
C. Crap.
D. Dire.