We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

[TANGODANCER]

It's all actually very much a true to form basement battle. All the ingredients are in place, raw nerves, butteflies, gripes and most of all knowing our ability to find a banana skin on a dance floor and a penchant for feeling sorry for the opposition if we're winning. Still, what would it be if we were safely settled in mid-table and likely to stay there? How boring....

[Lost Leopard Spot]

It's all actually very much a true to form basement battle. All the ingredients are in place, raw nerves, butteflies, gripes and most of all knowing our ability to find a banana skin on a dance floor and a penchant for feeling sorry for the opposition if we're winning. Still, what would it be if we were safely settled in mid-table and likely to stay there? How boring....

Very true... Very, very true.

[GhostoftheBok]

You might just get me to take boring over insolvent.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Sorry all, been offline over the weekend – and when I wasn’t, T-W was… glad to see it back.

So yeah, what we might call Matchday 39 was a bust. For the first time in maybe two months, nearly everyone else gained points on us - notably Birmingham halving the points gap to three. Thankfully Barnsley were twice hauled back in by Bristol City, the latter in injury time – the sort of gut-wrenching concession that makes fans fear the worst.

The relevant results:
Barnsley 2-2 Bristol City
Cardiff 3-1 Burton
Leeds 2-1 Bolton
Sheff Weds 4-1 Preston
Reading 1-0 QPR
Derby 1-4 Sunderland
Birmingham 1-0 Ipswich
Hull 0-0 Villa

So everyone did better than us apart from Burton, who now slump to the bottom. Sunderland cut their gap to us from 11pts to 8, but with seven games left you’d imagine things would have to get weird fast for them to catch us. Our biggest threats are Birmingham and Barnsley, both of whom we play in the next fortnight, with the onus on our opponents to win.

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And so to Matchday 40, again split over two days.

Burton v Boro (Mon 3pm)
Forest v Barnsley (Mon 3pm)
Sunderland v Wednesday (Mon 3pm)
Villa v Reading (Tue 7.45pm)
Wolves v Hull (Tue 7.45pm)
Bolton v Birmingham (Tue 8pm)

The race got tighter over the weekend and frankly you can see that happening again here. Hull, on 40pts, travel to Wolves; Reading, on 39, go to Villa. We (39) host Birmingham (36) and Barnsley (34) travel to Forest for the sort of fixture a drop-dodging team would hope, as well as need, to win. So if we lose it could end up thusly:

18: 40 Hull
19: 39 Reading
20: 39 Bolton
21: 39 Birmingham
————
22: 37 Barnsley

But this is where we have to see threat as opportunity. Our home game with Birmingham is yer classic six-pointer, and they can go in your favour. Although Garry Monk now has a couple of wins under his belt I suspect Parky might be secretly rather glad (for this game at least) that Birmingham have replaced Cotterill, who would have come to park the bus – a situation we don’t often face and rarely look fluid against. Should we win, and I genuinely think we should, the table would look more like:

18: 42 Bolton
19: 40 Hull
20: 39 Reading
21: 37 Barnsley
————
22: 36 Birmingham

…and suddenly the whole world’s a lot brighter…

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Forest-Barnsley postponed, waterlogged pitch.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Forest-Barnsley postponed, waterlogged pitch.

Which gives Barnsley the game in hand, which frankly I'd prefer they didn't have...

[TANGODANCER]

Forest-Barnsley postponed, waterlogged pitch.

Which gives Barnsley the game in hand, which frankly I'd prefer they didn't have...

But if we win, that may well increase the tension on them...ie, we need to win rather than worry about them...do that and the problem fades, more so if they should lose that game in hand.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Forest-Barnsley postponed, waterlogged pitch.

Which gives Barnsley the game in hand, which frankly I'd prefer they didn't have...

But if we win, that may well increase the tension on them...ie, we need to win rather than worry about them...do that and the problem fades, more so if they should lose that game in hand.

But if we lose, then instead of them having also lost against Sherwood Forest, they have the incentive to gain enough points over us to overtake us. Calculating the opposition's mental state is always going to be a guessing game, but if I were a Tyke I'd definitely be happier today than I was yesterday...

[Edit] ...and I know what you're saying - basically we have it in our own hands. But, sorry, I'm just a natural pessimist.

[jmjhb]

Good for us, as it means Barnsley have an extra midweek game and don't have the points

[GhostoftheBok]

We're not very good, but we've enough about us to stay up. We have to beat Brum tomorrow evening. If we do that, we'll be fine. Lose that game and then we can start panicking again. I think we'll win.

[irie Cee Bee]

We need not be concerned with the results of the other teams below us. Its totally in our hands. We need to take care of the business.

[Bruce Rioja]

Burton 1 up against Boro

[jmjhb]

Sunderland and Burton irrelevant yet?

[malcd1]

Sunderland and Burton irrelevant yet?

8 points behind with 6 games left. It will take a serious change of form for that to happen. They would probably have to win all 6 games for either of them to catch us. Considering Sunderland have won only 6 matches and Burton 7 from 40 games. It should be enough.

Barnsley and Birmingham are our biggest threats. Birmingham especially.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I'm not there yet, because it's dog eat dog, but I'm almost at the point where I'm starting to feel sorry for Sunderland and particularly Burton.

At home to Wednesday, the Mackems went behind to a goal set up by Yer Man Nuhiu, immediately equalised, promptly conceded again and then let in a killer third to the big lad, who's now scored five in three since Parky talked him up - imagine if our manager was in his ear all the time. So for Sunderland all the excitement from that 4-1 at Derby turns to piss and vinegar.

As for Burton, leading for 84 minutes against a play-off side then they let in a 90th-minute equaliser. They've still only won one since New Year's Day.

Both sides are now eight points behind us with six games left (and we have seven). As noted, they're almost (but not quite) no longer the problem; Birmingham and Barnsley are. Personally I don't mind that the Tykes might have a game in hand; points in the bag, etc. And it's still up to us. If we lose to Birmingham, it's a worry, but Barnsley would still be five points behind us. If they win that game in hand, they'd still have to better our record, perhaps by beating us at theirs. If they do that, it's tenbob-threepennybit time. But let's not forget that Barnsley - the team Burton beat – have themselves only won once since New Year's Day... at Birmingham.

[GhostoftheBok]

The bottom 3 will be wanting us to batter Birmingham.

[Prufrock]

They'll have their own bright sparks wanting Birmingham to win so "more teams are drawn into it".

[Bijou Bob]

Our next 2 matches look tough, so tonight's result is somewhat critical. We never do anything at Derby, although they've gone right off the boil of late. Millwall however, haven't lost this year and have won 7 of their last 8 away matches (The other one they drew). They're pushing hard for the play offs, a great achievement for them and will come to our place with a big following looking for all 3 points. The last thing we want is a 4 match run in to the end of the season with the chasing 3 or 4 just a couple of points behind. Our season could come down to Burton and Barnsley away. Exciting, but not ideal!

[Prufrock]

Think we'll get about 45 and that will be enough.

Nervous about tonight, all the results look nailed on depending on when you ask me.

First goal is vital.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

assuming a lower-than-average 45 point safety margin.

Not that much lower: over the last ten years, the average total of the highest-relegated team has been 45.7pts, but in four of the last seven seasons it's been 44 or less, and in three of the last six it's been 41 or less. (Points total of highest-relegated teams, going back: 51, 40, 41, 44, 54, 40, 42, 47, 46, 52.)

Just saying like. A minor point on a small phrase in the middle of a reasonable post.