Where will we finish?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

So it's 7pts ahead of the usual pace. Difficult. As I say, teams are on tears.

[officer_dibble]

It is what it is, I’ll be pretty bloody happy if we finish 75+ points. Appreciate me being happy isn’t a barometer for reaching the play offs!

[Worthy4England]

So it's 7pts ahead of the usual pace. Difficult. As I say, teams are on tears.

I suspect, it does sort of explain why folks are coming back with 80 points on the calculator...

[TonyDomingos]

This thread needs a spoiler alert!

[Prufrock]

So it's 7pts ahead of the usual pace. Difficult. As I say, teams are on tears.

Partly explained by the bottom. No-one has stayed up on less than 1ppg in the last decade. We're currently on track for two to do it this season.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Extrapolating recent form now has us finishing between 11th and 9th, between 13pts and 7pts behind.

The pace for the last play-off place is blazing: 81-83pts.

As usual, caveat that teams have to play each other. Portsmouth and Plymouth have 11 games left; 7 of Pompey's and 8 of Argyle's are against top-11 teams.

Whoever gets in the play-offs is really going to deserve it this year. Pretty much everyone is on faintly ludicrous form: over the last 8, for instance, a ridiculous 8 teams in the top 11 are on 2ppg or higher, which is 92-points-winning-title-bothering pace. We're one of them, but there are just too many others.

[Worthy4England]

At this stage, I feel no need to update either of my two previous guesses of 9th, although teams above us not dropping many and our recent form ain't great. Plymouth feel like they're on a flier right now.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

At this stage, I feel no need to update either of my two previous guesses of 9th, although teams above us not dropping many and our recent form ain't great. Plymouth feel like they're on a flier right now.

They’ll need to be, given their fixture list. I’m genuinely intrigued as to what will happen. Couldn’t pick four for the play-offs. Feels like it’s almost any four from eight or nine, not even including us - Wigan aren’t anything like safe from an MK Dons team on a proper roll. These six-pointers will decide it, one way or other.

[GhostoftheBok]

I expected to win tonight. Big issues now in terms of getting top 6.

The fact so many players lost their heads tonight worries me.

[Worthy4England]

At this stage, I feel no need to update either of my two previous guesses of 9th, although teams above us not dropping many and our recent form ain't great. Plymouth feel like they're on a flier right now.

They’ll need to be, given their fixture list. I’m genuinely intrigued as to what will happen. Couldn’t pick four for the play-offs. Feels like it’s almost any four from eight or nine, not even including us - Wigan aren’t anything like safe from an MK Dons team on a proper roll. These six-pointers will decide it, one way or other.

Don't think congested fixture list is as big problem when you're winning as it's made out to be when you're not...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

At this stage, I feel no need to update either of my two previous guesses of 9th, although teams above us not dropping many and our recent form ain't great. Plymouth feel like they're on a flier right now.

They’ll need to be, given their fixture list. I’m genuinely intrigued as to what will happen. Couldn’t pick four for the play-offs. Feels like it’s almost any four from eight or nine, not even including us - Wigan aren’t anything like safe from an MK Dons team on a proper roll. These six-pointers will decide it, one way or other.

Don't think congested fixture list is as big problem when you're winning as it's made out to be when you're not...

Ha! Well, no.

But my point above isn't really about quantity of games (although Pompey are officially, per Opta, the 92's hardest pressers, which will be difficult to keep up). It's quality of opposition.

Plymouth have 11 games left, of which 8 are against top-11 teams. Their record v top-11 teams isn't terrible - W4 D2 L5 - but at 1.27ppg it's a lot lower than their current batting average. They will however be encouraged that the three teams above them (Sunderland, Oxford, McDons) have to travel to Plymouth, and I know from experience that can be a tough journey

Portsmouth v top 11: W4 D2 L7, = 1.07ppg, usually only just above relegation form. Their only 3 home games in their 7 v top-11 teams are Rotherham, Wigan and Wycombe.

None of this is in the service of convincing myself we're going to make it. Just saying they can't all keep flying at the same rate.

[knobpolisher]

I would love to see us promoted but I do fear that at this moment in time of team development its not the right time. Good solid promotion season next year will do me.

[TANGODANCER]

So, effectively, the honest answer to the question is ,we don't have a clue? A bit like, How many will we beat Morecambe by? In short, nobody is dashing to the bookies?

[Worthy4England]

So, effectively, the honest answer to the question is ,we don't have a clue? A bit like, How many will we beat Morecambe by? In short, nobody is dashing to the bookies?

Was there ever any other answer until it's mathematically certain or mathematically not possible? As for the Bookies, I'd already put my bet on this time last year.

[officer_dibble]

club have announced the end of season awards for 1st May if you want to read anything into that…

[nicholaldo]

I would love to see us promoted but I do fear that at this moment in time of team development its not the right time. Good solid promotion season next year will do me.

ll admit to thinking similar despite being in line to win a four-figure sum if we did go up this season. The gulf between the second and third tiers is very large and I wonder if progressing straight from the fourth tier, having begun the process with practically no squad whatsoever and restricted to free transfers, then having to sign half a starting eleven during two consecutive January transfer windows, might leave us too far behind the standard required.

[TANGODANCER]

I would love to see us promoted but I do fear that at this moment in time of team development its not the right time. Good solid promotion season next year will do me.

ll admit to thinking similar despite being in line to win a four-figure sum if we did go up this season. The gulf between the second and third tiers is very large and I wonder if progressing straight from the fourth tier, having begun the process with practically no squad whatsoever and restricted to free transfers, then having to sign half a starting eleven during two consecutive January transfer windows, might leave us too far behind the standard required.

Add all the stress of club owner and financial problems of the last couple of years to that , we're lucky to be doing half as well as we are. Just hope we don't lose too many key players in the interim. Rather not lose Dapo and I hope he isn't suffering from a sense of his own importance, but I'd much rather keep Marlon Fossey of the two. Much depends on so many things, loans not the least of them.

[TANGODANCER]

I expected to win tonight. Big issues now in terms of getting top 6.

The fact so many players lost their heads tonight worries me.

Don't think it was so many rather than a few Ghost. One criminal back pass set a trend for a spell of daftness that we didn't overcome, the stats being the daftest thing of all. Pity Morecambe's manager didn't study them before tooting his flute.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I see Rotherham have lost 2-0 at Burton. Goals from a long throw and a free-kick.

Maybe Burton are good at that.

7th-placed Sunderland are only six points off automatic promotion. They really are gonna be so annoyed when they stay down again.

[GhostoftheBok]

I'm beginning to think that my call of 5th and promoted via the play-offs might not happen.