Should I(E) stay or should I(E) go?

[GhostoftheBok]

4WBs and a "good as Maghoma" MF doesn't sound cheap, but our Swiss contingent tell us they understand what it takes..

I don't understand the "4 wingbacks" bit.

2 wingbacks, serious centre half and a midfielder are the "must haves."

#2 keeper, another mid and a striker with genuine pace are the "would be nices."

Then replacing exits.

I worry what we'll end up with is 1 wingback and a midfielder, then patching up.

[Worthy4England]

Either way, that gets us to 7.

[GhostoftheBok]

Either way, that gets us to 7.

Well, 4-7 with the emphasis probably on 4.

We are carrying 19(?) players into next season. Before we get into squad registration there's limited space there for new arrivals.

Oi, DSB...is Zac Ashwoth a freebie next season, or do we need to register him? Don't make me use google.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Bax
Jones/Cogley - Santos - Toal - Iredale
Dempsey - Sheehan - Tomo
Randy - Charles - Collins

That's not a bad base. Not enough on it's own, but with a whole summer it seems very doable to me.

Decent XI. I would argue CMG could cut in from either flank. As usual, you make a convincing case. But it still feels like we're adding a defender and leaving our 6 as Sheehan, which is not always enough. (I know, you stipulate 'without signings'.) And I would definitely worry about Charles alone up top. He'd be f*cked by half-time.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Oi, DSB...is Zac Ashwoth a freebie next season, or do we need to register him? Don't make me use google.

Nope, born 6/9/02 so he's 21. This season just dying now is also the final underage season for Matheson, Khumbeni, Sithole, Hutchinson and Carty.

[GhostoftheBok]

Nope, born 6/9/02 so he's 21. This season just dying now is also the final underage season for Matheson, Khumbeni, Sithole, Hutchinson and Carty.

So does that mean we currently have zero outfield players we don't need to register? I'm befuddled by birthday cake and wouldn't trust my recall right now.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Nope, born 6/9/02 so he's 21. This season just dying now is also the final underage season for Matheson, Khumbeni, Sithole, Hutchinson and Carty.

So does that mean we currently have zero outfield players we don't need to register? I'm befuddled by birthday cake and wouldn't trust my recall right now.

viewtopic.php?p=1172240#p1172240 - slightly out of date (mid-Feb) but should be relevant. You're looking for two or more asterisks - see footnote for explanation.

[BWFC_Insane]

If we genuinely want to sign Ashworth then once again I think it shows a significant lack of judgement.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Some (but by no means all) of the criticism of Evatt is that he’s our Phil Neal and we just need to find our “new Rioch”. That’s an iconic name to bandy about. What did we mean by it? If we mean someone who, like Bruce, had already taken a team not just out of this division but the one above, they’re vanishingly rare.

I decided to have a look at the managers who have been (unlike Evatt) successfully promoted from this division, and how they did once they moved up a level. It’s… mixed. Excuse the notes format, I haven’t the time or the energy to write it up.

But feel free to tell me which of these “proven” managers you’d want. As far as I can see, there’s only three managers since Brexit who’ve been promoted out of this division and gone on to be promoted again from the Champo. One of them is Chris Wilder, so that's a no. Another is Alex Neil, so that's a possibility. The other would be considerably harder to get - it’s Kieran McKenna, the gold standard of the inexperienced “project manager”, still in his 30s and widely doubted by many fans as he implemented his plans (including our regular and temperate visitor Orton Cake Bingo Bongo).

Maybe those young managers aren't so bad after all. But you never know until you're in it. I just know that if Evatt jumps or is pushed, I'd rather us hire a (judiciously researched) young manager with a plan than a duffer in his anecdotage.

2022/23
Champions: Plymouth – Steven Schumacher. Left for Stoke midseason. T2 PPG: 1.28.
Runners-up: Ipswich - Kieran McKenna. Got them promoted again in 23/24. He’s your Rioch. T2 PPG: 2.09.
Play-offs: Sheffield Wednesday - Darren Moore. Left that summer for second-tier Huddersfield, lasted four months (13% win record), is now at Port Vale. T2 PPG: 1.31 (but about 0.9 at his last two clubs).

2021/22
Champions: Wigan - Leam Richardson. Sacked in November. Went to Rotherham in December. Sacked in April. Tier-two PPG: 0.43.
Runners-up: Rotherham - Paul Warne. Left in September for Derby; finished 7th then 2nd. T2 PPG: 0.87.
Play-offs: Sunderland - Alex Neil. Left for Stoke in August; finished 16th then sacked after 14 months, 20th in table. Tier-2 PPG: 1.41. Won T2 play-offs with Norwich in 2015.

2020/21
Champions: Hull - Grant McCann. Sacked in January by new consortium (club in 19th place). Returned to struggling T2 Peterborough, relegated then sacked in January; then returned to T4 Doncaster, who reached the play-offs. T2 PPG: 1.03.
Runners-up: Peterborough - Darren Ferguson. Sacked in Feb (23rd). Back to Posh, two play-off failures. T2 PPG: 0.97.
Play-offs: Blackpool - Neil Critchley. Kept them up (16th) then jumped to assist Steven Gerrard at Villa. Then managed T2 QPR for two months before being sacked. Back to Blackpool last summer; finished 8th (T3). T2 PPG: 1.19.

2019/20 (Covid-shortened)
Champions: Coventry - Mark Robins. Stayed there; they’ve finished 16th, 12th, 5th and 9th. T2 PPG: 1.31.
RU: Rotherham - Paul Warne. Relegated in 2021, promoted in 2022, thence to Derby. T2 PPG: 0.87.
PO: Wycombe - Gareth Ainsworth. Relegated in 2021, play-off finalists 2022, left for QPR Feb 2023, sacked after six months. T2 PPG: 0.83.

2018/19
Ch: Luton - Mick Harford. Was only really caretaker (post Nathan Jones) and has never since left Luton, in various roles.
RU: Barnsley - Daniel Stendel. Sacked in October. Has since fled to Scotland, France and now Germany. T2 PPG: 0.55.
PO: Charlton - Lee Bowyer. Relegated in May 2020, resigned March 2021. Went to T2 Birmingham in March 2021, sacked July 2022 (after finishing 20th). Now managing Montserrat. T2 PPG: 1.10.

2017/18
Ch: Wigan - Paul Cook. Finished 18th T2, then relegated due to financial points deduction; he resigned. Last six months at Ipswich then started again in non-league with his old club Chesterfield, bringing them back into the league this summer. T2 PPG: 1.21.
RU: Blackburn - Tony Mowbray. Finished 15th T2, then 11h, then left; went to Sunderland, dismissed in 9th. Now at Birmingham, albeit on medical leave. T2 PPG: 1.45.
PO: Rotherham - Paul Warne. Relegated in 2019, promoted in 2020, relegated in 2021, promoted in 2022, left for Derby. T2 PPG: 0.87.

2016/17
Ch: Sheffield United - Chris Wilder. Blades finished 10th then 2nd, then 9th in Prem then 20th before he was sacked. Finished 7th with Boro then sacked in 18th. Short spell at Watford then back to Blades. T2 PPG: 1.59
RU: Bolton - Phil Parkinson. Finished 21st then relegated. Went to T3 Sunderland, finished 7th then sacked in 9th. Then Wrexham - National League play-off failure, then promotion, then T4 promotion again.
PO: Millwall - Neil Harris. Finished 8th T2 then 21st; resigned October 2019, went to T2 Cardiff – finished 5th in 2020, sacked in January 2021. Subsequently at Gillingham and (briefly) Cambridge before returning to Millwall. T2 PPG: 1.34.

[Bertie Wooster]

Alex Neil

[GhostoftheBok]

Alex Neil

Language, please. Children might be reading.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Alex Neil

Whether or not I agree with it, I can see the logic in that. And if he doesn't want to accept?

[officer_dibble]

Depends when Evatt goes. He’ll either do the decent thing and step down now or he’ll go when the board has no choice - run of results against Rotherham, Wigan and Blackpool probably.

[BWFC_Insane]

I realise that lots won’t like my Gareth Ainsworth shout but I do think he’s the sort of manager who would relish moulding a team that scraps for everything and overachieves.

Alex Neil more I think about it is a very good shout. Young still with room to grow. Has a promotion to the championship and premiership under his belt already. Sure he might not fancy it. But I definitely see the logic.

[GhostoftheBok]

Alex Neil more I think about it is a very good shout. Young still with room to grow. Has a promotion to the championship and premiership under his belt already. Sure he might not fancy it. But I definitely see the logic.

Unfortunately, so do I. Thankfully I doubt we can afford his wages.

[Bertie Wooster]

I think he'd take it unless he has better offers in the championship, we are a more attractive proposition than some may think.

If Alex Neil wants to get back into football, I don't think wages would be an issue - great stadium, decent fan base, good chairwomen, ambitious board etc. possibly a decent team if coached / set up correctly etc with a couple of additions (experienced combative leaders one at CB, one in MF)

[Prufrock]

Bax
Jones/Cogley - Santos - Toal - Iredale
Dempsey - Sheehan - Tomo
Randy - Charles - Collins

That's not a bad base. Not enough on it's own, but with a whole summer it seems very doable to me.

Decent XI. I would argue CMG could cut in from either flank. As usual, you make a convincing case. But it still feels like we're adding a defender and leaving our 6 as Sheehan, which is not always enough. (I know, you stipulate 'without signings'.) And I would definitely worry about Charles alone up top. He'd be f*cked by half-time.

Agree on CMG but I doubt we'll see him before Xmas. That plus Randy's, injury history is why I think we'd need two wingers.

On Sheehan, we can't make him grow, but playing with wingers lessens the distance the 8s have to cover (or you play with a 10 and have someone right alongside him). Either way it means he's far less likely to end up the only white shirt within 30 yards trying to hold back the tide.

On Dion, I disagree! I can see the worries in terms of his stature, and first touch/ ability to make the ball stick, but it's no more work, and I'd argue less. Your classic outball as a midfielder or centre half when pressed is your full back. We don't have anyone directly against them. When we're on top, it's been our wingbacks pressing there, we force the out, tidy up and attack again, cue the good bits of this season. But when they're deeper, either because we don't have control or the numerous times in any game when that just happens, it's been the front two doing shuttle runs across to hit full backs (who often in that situation will drop a shoulder, back to the keeper or centre half and out the other side, leading to a shuttle run for the other forward to cover that, and the first one to get back into the middle so they can't play into midfield). That's why they've been shagged after an hour every single game. And why this shape needs four quality fit forwards for every game.

Change to a 433, however you cut it, and the FB isn't the striker's job anymore. Dion's pressing stays contained and we get more minutes out of him. Essentially you press with 3 (or 4 if you want to play a 10 to do that) rather than 2.

[GhostoftheBok]

I think he'd take it unless he has better offers in the championship, we are a more attractive proposition than some may think.

If Alex Neil wants to get back into football, I don't think wages would be an issue - great stadium, decent fan base, good chairwomen, ambitious board etc. possibly a decent team if coached / set up correctly etc with a couple of additions (experienced combative leaders one at CB, one in MF)

Really can't stand the man, but he would probably win football matches.

[Worthy4England]

That would do. I don't want to be his bezzie.

[GhostoftheBok]

Change to a 433, however you cut it, and the FB isn't the striker's job anymore. Dion's pressing stays contained and we get more minutes out of him. Essentially you press with 3 (or 4 if you want to play a 10 to do that) rather than 2.

Dion's phenomenal work rate aside he's not quick enough to run in behind, not big enough to hit directly and not technical enough to come deep.

I think he's a midtable lone forward and a top striker in a 2, though goal return would likely be broadly the same.