We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

[Harry Genshaw]

We win tomorrow and I think Sunderland have gone. I was amazed they got fought back to get that decent point at Bristol last week but that aside they've looked like they're in freefall

[Lost Leopard Spot]

This time next week (plus a day) will be the end of February, and all our major opposition will have played 34 games with just 12 games each left to rescue the season.

I've had a quick back-of-the-fag-packet calculation of what our best and worst possible outcomes are for the month of February. This isn't to say that either the worst or the best will be the most likely of outcomes (that's a different calculation that if I could work out and consistently bet on would make me a millionaire). But nevertheless I think it's illuminating:

Best possible outcome leaves us in 18th place, a massive 4 places above relegation and six points clear of the relegation zone. (You will note that is just two more places up the table and only four more points clear than we are now - so although better than we are at present, it doesn't guarantee we won't still plummet if we have a mediocre end to the season)
Nottm Forest 39
Bolton W 36
Barnsley 34
Reading 32
Hull 32
Birmingham 30
Sunderland 28
Burton 26

The worst possible set of results for the last week of February gives us a quite untasty outcome, with us languishing bottom with a four point gap to safety. Note however that even the worst possible outcome still leaves us a good fighting chance to still rescue the season.
Reading 41
Nottm Forest 39
Birmingham 36
Hull 35
Sunderland 34
Burton 32
Barnsley 31
Bolton W 30

My best guesses as to the actual outcomes of the 14 games that involve our closest rivals tells me that it'll be a gnat's whisker over 50% (750/1400) that the best outcomes for us in those games will prevail. So in theory this time next weekish we will be on 33 points hovering very very very close to the dividing line in either 21st or 22nd position. We have a massive fight on our hands, but it's doable.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Saturday didn’t exactly go to plan, but coulda gone a lot worse. Not for the first time, others didn’t capitalise on our misfortune because (whispers) they’re not very good either.

Birmingham 0-1 Millwall - hooray!
Burton 0-0 Forest - keeps Forest theoretically catchable while Burton don’t make great leaps toward us
QPR 2-0 Bolton - well, bugger
Sunderland 0-2 Brentford - very nice, good good

And so your bottom third looks like dis:

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And Tuesday’s fixtures include yet more six-pointers:
BARNSLEY v BURTON
Brentford v BIRMINGHAM
Middlesbrough v HULL
FOREST v READING
BOLTON v SUNDERLAND

I’ve put us last ‘cos we kick off at 8pm, everyone else kicks off at 7.45pm - which might bring its own little intrigue.

Barnsley have the new-gaffer (bounce?) but Burton might fancy being the kind of dinner guests who spill soup on the table cloth. The Brewers are better away than at home, but are still a mixed bag; they won three successive trips to Bolton, Reading and Sheff Weds, then promptly shipped nine at Fulham and Villa – and they also scored one goal in their first seven away games.

Birmingham might also fancy being the latest drop-dodgers to take a point at Brentford; having hosted six of that bottom eight, the Bees have failed to kill off Barnsley (0-0), Burton (1-1), Reading (1-1) and Sunderland (3-3) and lost to Forest (3-4). (The exceptions: they beat us, obviously, and they host Hull on the last day in a game they might well bottle - ask a Donny fan.)

Hull’s 2-0 win at Forest ended a run of five successive single-goal defeats and was only their second away win of the season. Boro aren’t too hot at home, though - although Pulis beat us on his debut, they then struggled against Villa (0-1), Fulham (0-1) and Sheff Weds (0-0) before beating Reading 2-1.

Forest v Reading is a clash of the division’s two worst teams on last-10 form (Forest 0.6ppg, Reading 9.5ppg). While Reading stuck with Stam, Forest twisted for Karanka, and it hasn’t worked yet – those 10 games have yielded just three goals, and although Karanka has only presided over the last six, they’ve only scored in one of them. In all, since beating us they’ve lost their last five home games to nil (Sunderland and Hull among the beneficiaries). Reading have midtable away form and might fancy nicking it at Forest, which would arguably benefit us by keeping them within reach… IF we do our own job. COYWM.

Best-case scenario: 18th with 33pts
Worst-case scenario: 22nd with 30pts

[TANGODANCER]

So, how, why when, are all immaterial on a night when everything goes your way. Lord knows we've had enough when it didn't. Just goes to prove the game is all about goals and little else. City have everything, money, the most expensive players and billionire owners....didn't do them five pence worth of good last night, they lost to Wigan in the F.A.Cup 1-0. Tonight, the result was there for either side to win and we took one chance and held out. Big relief, because it's really in our own hands now. Just hope we have the injury free squad (minus Josh and Robinson) and energy left to carry it on. Poor display ot no, we get the result a precious, precious three points. That's football for you.

[knobpolisher]

April's fixtures of Birmingham milwall Barnsley and burton should be interesting to say the least.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

We're back up to 1ppg, which has been enough in five of the last seven seasons. Points total of highest-relegated teams, going back: 51, 40, 41, 44, 54, 40, 42, 47, 46, 52.

Following that logic, you might say 13 more points should do it. We have six more home games – Preston, Villa, Birmingham, Millwall, Wolves and Forest. Wolves are the division’s best away team, Preston the third best, Villa currently seventh and on form – but Birmingham are second-bottom of that away table, Millwall 17th, Forest 18th. Nine points from those three games would get us most of the way there, even if we lose at home to the other three.

But even in this (slightly nervy) let’s-get-to-46 hypothesis, that would require four away points. Our seven remaining trips are to Norwich, Reading, Sheff Wed, Leeds, Derby, Barnsley and Burton. Burton are the division’s worst home team, Reading the third-worst, Barnsley the fourth-worst, Norwich the seventh-worst, Wednesday the eighth-worst, Leeds the tenth-worst (Derby are fifth-best).

Our away form this season is, unarguably, shocking:

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For clarity, that record is DDLLLLDDDLLLWLLL, with eight of those defeats being to nil (and another two blanks in the draws: nil-returns are in red). In 10 away games out of 16, we’ve not scored. But we’ve also only got six points from the six games we’ve scored in: the only times we’ve scored more than once, at Forest and Sunderland, we managed to concede three each time to gain just one point out of the six.

What needs to improve, perhaps, is our game management in away games. We’ve only scored first away three times, but of those three we’ve only won at Bramall Lane, allowing both Fulham and Sunderland back in for shares. It’s going to be hard enough getting the lead, we need to make sure we keep it, but if there’s a consolation to be had it’s that we’re about to start playing teams for whom home is far from a fortress. That starts on Saturday at Norwich, who in their last 13 home games have only won 3, only scored 2+ twice and have been held by Burton, Barnsley and Hull. A point there might give us more confidence for the mid-March road double-header to Reading and Sheffield Wednesday, games which could keep us up.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Sunderland aren't "gone" but its hard to make a case that they can win 7 out of their remaining 13 games.

They might not need to: they're only three points below the dots and none of the teams around us are on anything like good form.

In the last-10 form table, Burton are 19th with 9pts (ie 0.9ppg); Hull 20th, Barnsley 21st and Sunderland 22nd are on 7pts; Reading and Forest tie for bottom with 6pts. We're 12th on 14pts, Birmingham 14th on 13pts – so we're on the best form of the bottom eight, and with recent form like that – over almost a quarter of the season – Reading and Forest are drifting toward danger rather than pulling away. That's not to say the Mackems will shoot past them, but while drop-dodgers sometimes manage to get points through sheer desperation, it would be surprising if all of them hit decent form at once.

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What worries me for us is that while I think we'll get enough points to survive, some of the games I'd be (more) confident of us getting those points from are toward the end of the season. It doesn’t take a bipolar personality to see us winning five of the last seven (Birmingham H, Derby A, Millwall H, Barnsley A, Wolves H, Burton A, Forest H) but only picking up two to four points out of the next six (Norwich A, Preston H, Reading A, Sheff Wed A, Villa H, Leeds A). The chances of the good late run happening might be impeded by the panic if the bad run sees us slide back toward, or past, the dots.

Which is why I’d like us to hit the road running this weekend. Our next three trips, to Norwich, Reading and Sheff Wed, are to teams who either don’t excel at home (Norwich are the division’s seventh-worst hosts with 21pts from 16 games) or are on worse last last-10 form than us (Sheff Wed are 15th with 1ppg, Reading 23rd with 0.6ppg).

So: to the rivals. Norwich have a day’s less rest than us and although we worked hard against Sunderland, you can’t imagine Canaries smoking cigars during their trip to Wolves tonight. Here’s hoping they run themselves daft and lose to a crucial late goal, or perhaps get a proper runaround like Birmingham did last night. Then it’s on to the weekend...

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Hull v Sheff Utd (Fri, 7.45pm; others all Sat 3pm)
Birmingham v Barnsley
Burton v Millwall
QPR v Forest
Reading v Derby
Sunderland v Middlesbrough

The weekend starts early with Hull hosting Sheffield United on Friday – we’ll have to swallow pride and become Blades for the evening, although the TV cameras might tempt the home fans into accidentally sabotaging their own team to get at the owners.

Birmingham-Barnsley is another six-pointer in which what we want depends slightly on how we do: a Blues win would help to hold Barnsley’s head under the water, but they might leap over us if we lose.

Buoyed by beating Barnsley, Burton might want it more than Millwall, but the Brewers are still bobbins at home and Miwwaww appear capable of picking off such low-hanging fruit – they’ve won their last three league trips at Leeds, Reading and Birmingham.

QPR-Forest might appear of limited interest – they’re six and four points above us – but if the Rs can see off their visitors then questions will continue to grow around Karanka’s Forest.

Reading have the weekend’s hardest job. Derby are fourth overall and three points off the auto-slots; they’re also the second-best away team, having won 27pts away to Reading’s 13 home points – the division’s third-worst hosts.

The only two teams worse at home than Reading are Burton and Sunderland, and the Mackems host Boro in what might feel like a wake. There’s not much worse after losing a crucial midweek six-pointer than hosting a much better local rival you’ve traditionally regarded as inferior. Boro – who showed little remorse in despatching Hull 3-1 last night – are now just two points off the play-offs; after losing their last two away games 1-0 at Norwich and Cardiff, Pulis will want them reverting to the rather more ruthless form that saw them win their previous three trips 2-1 at Sheff Weds, 3-2 at Preston and 3-0 at QPR.

[malcd1]

Thanks DSB. An interesting read as always but you have not put my mind at rest any.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Norwich have a day’s less rest than us and although we worked hard against Sunderland, you can’t imagine Canaries smoking cigars during their trip to Wolves tonight. Here’s hoping they run themselves daft and lose to a crucial late goal, or perhaps get a proper runaround like Birmingham did last night.

...or, go 2-0 down and then work incredibly hard to snatch a very late draw. Good for morale, but it'd be lovely to be the After The Lord Mayor's Show party-poopers.

Interesting quote from their gaffer post-game (they did indeed have 56% possession): "We control games and look to exhaust opponents. That helps us to score late goals."

Slam-cut to Saturday 4.40pm at Carrow Road...

[knobpolisher]

Pretty useless scoring a late goal when you are two down. Seems like daft comment of the week.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Pretty useless scoring a late goal when you are two down. Seems like daft comment of the week.

Whose, mine or theirs? Their late goal was an equaliser (they'd got one back fairly quickly). I was throwing forward to an imaginary world of us working ourselves to death then conceding anyway...

Bit more research: all season long they haven’t been very good at following midweekers successfully, especially with a homecoming game. As far as I can see, on the 10 occasions they’ve had a weekend game after a midweeker, they’ve only won twice – both away; at home, they’ve drawn twice and lost twice.

• After QPR (H) W –> Villa (A) L
• Charlton (H, LC) W – Millwall (A) L 0-4
• Burton (H) D 0-0 – Sheff U (A) W
• Brentford (A, LC) W – Bristol City (H) D 0-0
• Boro (A) W – Reading (A) W
• Arsenal (H, LC) L – Derby (H) L 1-2
• Wolves (H) L – Bolton (A) L
• Forest (A) L – Preston (H) D 1-1
• Birmingham (A) L – Burton (A) D 0-0
• Chelsea (A, FAC) L – Sheff U (H) L 1-2

This might be a historical accident, and I’m aware I’m laying myself open to parsing the results to suit an argument. But it does seem to be a confluence of patterns – they prefer being away, they’re not very good back to back.

And even if you don’t agree with that reading, here’s another thing. Let’s not forget that last Sunday they had the Old Farm derby at home to Ipswich, equalising in the 95th minute after conceding in the 89th. (After winning at Ipswich in October they lost four on the bounce, including at ours.) In a seven-day stretch of playing a derby, visting the champions-elect and hosting Bolton, we’ll have been the least of their concerns.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Pretty useless scoring a late goal when you are two down. Seems like daft comment of the week.

Whose, mine or theirs? Their late goal was an equaliser (they'd got one back fairly quickly). I was throwing forward to an imaginary world of us working ourselves to death then conceding anyway...

Bit more research: all season long they haven’t been very good at following midweekers successfully, especially with a homecoming game. As far as I can see, on the 10 occasions they’ve had a weekend game after a midweeker, they’ve only won twice – both away; at home, they’ve drawn twice and lost twice.

• After QPR (H) W –> Villa (A) L
• Charlton (H, LC) W – Millwall (A) L 0-4
• Burton (H) D 0-0 – Sheff U (A) W
• Brentford (A, LC) W – Bristol City (H) D 0-0
• Boro (A) W – Reading (A) W
• Arsenal (H, LC) L – Derby (H) L 1-2
• Wolves (H) L – Bolton (A) L
• Forest (A) L – Preston (H) D 1-1
• Birmingham (A) L – Burton (A) D 0-0
• Chelsea (A, FAC) L – Sheff U (H) L 1-2

This might be a historical accident, and I’m aware I’m laying myself open to parsing the results to suit an argument. But it does seem to be a confluence of patterns – they prefer being away, they’re not very good back to back.

And even if you don’t agree with that reading, here’s another thing. Let’s not forget that last Sunday they had the Old Farm derby at home to Ipswich, equalising in the 95th minute after conceding in the 89th. (After winning at Ipswich in October they lost four on the bounce, including at ours.) In a seven-day stretch of playing a derby, visting the champions-elect and hosting Bolton, we’ll have been the least of their concerns.

You're setting us up for a seven nil thrashing, you know that don't you!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

You're setting us up for a seven nil thrashing, you know that don't you!

I think the team have proven themselves quite capable of doing that all by themselves...
I'm just setting myself up for about eight hours in the car (and I know others will have it harder) with at least some hope.

[TANGODANCER]

Hope is rising and I'm ever optimistic, but can't help looking nervously over shoulders. Hull and Barnsley still have games in hand and we could do with a bit more than a couple of points difference. Not all gloom though, because they play each other Tuesday. A draw would be wonderful.....

[Harry Genshaw]

I keep looking at the various permutations but after a tough away game, we're no worse off and a game nearer the end of the season. That'll do for me. Just wish we could have another crack at those first 12 games again now

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

after a tough away game, we're no worse off and a game nearer the end of the season. That'll do for me.

Pretty much sums it up (although obviously I'll bang away at length). Before the weekend's games we were four points above the dots; we're still four points above the dots, having come through a round of fixtures in which we arguably had the hardest task. No bad thing.

Hull 1-0 Sheff Utd – a blow, but hey-ho. Hull are now two points behind us with a game in hand. Blades' next two games are at Reading tomorrow night then hosting Burton on Saturday.
Birmingham 0-2 Barnsley - Barnsley indebted to loanee stickman Oli McBurnie, who scored twice and had a penalty saved. Cotterill escorted down the tunnel at the end as Blues drop back into the dead zone; his quotes are sounding increasingly defeated.
Burton 0-1 Millwall - After midweek win at Barnsley, Brewers register 58% possession, zero shots on target. Their last 13 home games have been W0 D2 L11 (the two draws were 0-0). Their next three trips are to Blades, Wolves and Cardiff.
QPR 2-5 Forest - The weekend's jawdropper: Forest had scored 3 in the last 10. Neither side is safe yet but it'd take a lot to drag them in.
Reading 3-3 Derby - Impressive bouncebackability from the Royals to avoid losing five league games on the bounce for the first time ever. They'd only scored three home goals since November, and none in the last three (all lost). Still only level on points with us though, pending tomorrow night's hosting of Sheffield United.
Sunderland 3-3 Middlesbrough - Another very hard-earned home point but Sunderland slip another point away from safety and after leading twice, their late equaliser is only as third as good as it might have been.

Table, then:

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Up next: Tuesday gets rid of the games in hand with Hull v Barnsley and Reading v Sheffield United. A draw in the Tiger-Tyke clash would be handy, and obviously we'll have to support Blades again, although they've only won one away game in seven.

And that, my friends, will be the end of February, and (depending on tomorrow's result at Hull) we're guaranteed to finish the month in 19th or 20th position. Not bad considering we ended both January and December in 22nd, after being rock-bottom at the end of August, September, October and November. As Harry Genshaw so wisely says, it'll do for me.

[BWFC_Insane]

Its a funny old game down here - Burton win at Barnsley, then Barnsley win at Brum..... Our spirit is undeniable. I doubt any team down there has the ability to grind out results quite like we can, with such scratch teams and so little possession.

The question remains, where will the goals come from to keep us up? We cannot IMHO scrape by on a diet of 1-0s and 0-0s all the way. Ultimately the fine margins only have to drop the other way for a short spell consistently (as they did early on in the season) and you're stuffed.

Recent results and performances have been beyond expectation. I still think if we don't find a striker to offer something else in the free market I struggle to see us scoring enough goals....or consistently relieving enough pressure away from home to get up the pitch and nick the odd goal here and there.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Its a funny old game down here - Burton win at Barnsley, then Barnsley win at Brum..... Our spirit is undeniable. I doubt any team down there has the ability to grind out results quite like we can, with such scratch teams and so little possession.

Yep, it's curious, and dog-eat-dog. And that may be no bad thing.

Form-wise, nobody in the bottom 10 is bursting into brilliance. That might sound obvious – they wouldn't be in the bottom 10, etc – but it's nearly March and nobody's really breaking from the pack. If anybody, it's been us, which is obviously nice.

recentform260218.png (156.44 KiB) Viewed 2994 times

I know we have our problems and you're almost certainly right that we won't always grind out results. But other teams have their problems too and they're not even really starting to grind out those results. For the last month, it's felt like each time we've dropped points, nobody really takes advantage. The tables seem to bear that out – the form tables and the important one, the main table.

As an aside, there’s plenty of six-pointers left, and the old They Can’t Both Win is useful when you’re atop the minigroup. There’s eight games to come between the bottom six:

27/02 Hull-Barnsley
17/03 Birmingham-Hull
03/04 Bolton-Birmingham
07/04 Birmingham-Burton
10/04 Burton-Hull
14/04 Barnsley-Bolton
21/04 Sunderland-Burton
28/04 Burton-Bolton

Burton have 4 six-pointers, two home and two away; us, Birmingham and Hull have 3 each, Barnsley 2 and Sunderland just the 1.

If you add in the four teams above us – and below a significant seven-point gap up to 14th-placed Norwich, the last reasonably conceivable play-off contender (that 7pt gap is the division's largest between two positions: points-wise, Norwich are as close to the play-offs as they are to 15th-placed Forest) – there’s another 13 of these key clashes, so 21 in all:

03/03 Forest-Birmingham
06/03 Reading-Bolton
10/03 QPR-Sunderland
10/03 Wednesday-Bolton
30/03 Reading-QPR
02/04 Forest-Barnsley
07/04 Hull-QPR
10/04 QPR-Wednesday
14/04 Hull-Wednesday
14/04 Reading-Sunderland
21/04 Wednesday-Reading
28/04 QPR-Birmingham
06/05 Bolton-Forest

That’s a total of 6 for us, 5 for Birmingham/Hull/QPR, 4 for Burton/Wednesday/Reading, 3 for Barnsley/Forest/Sunderland.

What all that means is open to discussion. I’d say it means we ought to think we can win six of our last 12 games. And four of them should suffice.

[jmjhb]

6 goals in 10 games for a total yield of 15 points is quite efficient.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT
http://sport.bt.com/football/barnsley-a ... 4254618297