League One, 2022/23

[Harry Genshaw]

Imagine losing to them there. Urgh

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

On another note. If we play Cheltenham at Wembley, imagine paying £50 tickets plus however much in transport and day-out costs - and watching them cheat and dive and waste time.

That's a very different game on that pitch, though.

Unless we go one down.

So let’s not.

[GhostoftheBok]

Unless we go one down.

[Prufrock]

Great news re Cooper, as much so for a potential final against a team we haven’t beaten in thirty years or whatever it is.

As for Dixon, you would have a third choice elder statesman if they had experience to draw off…dixons got nowt!

We might finally score against the c*nts.

[Prufrock]

Unless we go one down.

Honestly still think we'd beat them 10-1 at Wembley. Assuming we had defenders fit. Call it 10-3.

[Prufrock]

Cooper was their player of the season last year and his stats this season were off the scale: per Experimental361, Plymouth's expected goals against is 39, but they've only conceded 29.

Would be interested to know how the young Boro loanee, Sol Brynn, is doing at Swindon Town in terms of comparable stats.

experimental361.com gives figures for teams, not players – but he's ever-present, so:
Swindon have conceded 28, they should have conceded 35.8

League Two club with biggest xGa overachievement is Leyton Orient (conceded 17 vs xGa 27.8 ). Their goalie is Lawrence Vigouroux, who used to play for... Swindon (older fans may remember him letting in a dolly against us at theirs - maybe Parky era?)

He's the daft bastard who paid a fine in about 10,000 1ps isn't he ?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Right, back over here then...
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Interesting that Ipswich – who have only won one in seven games against the other members of the current top six - still have to visit the three teams immediately below them (including, of course, us) plus Posh. Also host form teams Wycombe and Shrewsbury, both of whom are minimal-possession low-block (sorry BWFCi) long-ball teams, so that'll be fascinating.

Derby have still got to visit the top two. The trip to Wednesday is on the last day of the season. Oof.

Barnsley host 6 of the top 9. Weirdly, the only two they've hosted, they've lost 0-3 to - us and Wycombe. Exeter (10th) won 0-2 there too.

Whole lotta top-9 games yet to play...

02/18 Wycombe-Bolton
02/25 Barnsley-Derby, Posh-Plymouth, Shrews-Wycombe
03/04 Derby-Shrews, Wednesday-Posh
03/07 Plymouth-Derby, Shrews-Posh
03/11 Bolton-Ipswich, Barnsley-Plymouth
03/17 Wednesday-Bolton
03/18 Ipswich-Shrews, Wycombe-Barnsley
03/21 Barnsley-Wednesday
03/25 Barnsley-Ipswich, Posh-Derby
04/01 Derby-Ipswich
04/07 Ipswich-Wycombe, Posh-Shrews
04/10 Barnsley-Shrews
04/18 Shrews-Plymouth
04/22 Bolton-Shrews, Posh-Ipswich
04/29 Shrews-Wednesday
05/07 Barnsley-Posh, Wednesday-Derby

[GhostoftheBok]

If you're working for the club on the football side, though, our run-in is what you want. We get to play the two sides immediately above us in 6 pointers to try and reel them in. We also get to play two sides chasing us and knock them out of the play-offs chase.

If you back your key lads to be good enough to play in the league above then you'll fancy putting them up against direct rivals and getting results.

If you're in a title race you want to play the other teams around you, because you are then in control of your own fate.

As fans it's different, because we have no influence; but Evatt will look at that as a chance to beat the Owls and Ipswich to get us right in the mix. He'll also be glad the game are before the run-in, because he can put pressure on them if he wins.

If we can get to within 6 points with 8 games left Evatt will believe he can get top two. If we're too far adrift by then, so be it.

[BWFC_Insane]

Looking at this:

Plymouth have left
Home - Fleetwood, Derby, Charlton, FGR, Bristol Rovers, Lincoln City, Cambridge, Burton
Away - Peterborough, Barnsley, Accrington, Morecambe, Exeter, Shrewsbury, Port Vale

SW have left
Home - MK Dons, Peterborough, Us, Lincoln, Accrington, Exeter, Derby
Away - Charlton, Portsmouth, Barnsley, FGR, Cheltenham, Oxford, Burton, Bristol Rovers, Shrewsbury

In bold are the games that, lets be honest, you'd expect these teams to win.

So that's 10 wins for Plymouth - which gives them 97 points.
11 for Wednesday - which gives them 98 points.

Now - of course - expect to win doesn't = will win. But I've assumed that the other games are all defeats which also seems unlikely. So arguably that will balance out.

But lets take a wobble for Plymouth and they lose a couple of those (and lose all the others too) they get to 91 points. That would be their weakest run of the season with only 1.6ppg. But its not beyond the realms of possibility - though I'd say 'unlikely' at this stage.

So lets say in reality that the bare minimum we need to have any chance of top 2 is 91/92 points which is probably on the low end to be fair but lets say its there....it leaves us needing 10 wins and 2 draws or 11 wins from our remaining 14 games. I don't think that's impossible but I also think its likely that even then thats a few points short of where it will be.

We're not far off needing to win 12 or 13 games out of what's left. Again not impossible - but the longest of long shots I'd say!

[The_Gun]

I note that Accy lost to Wycombe last night and host (relatively) high flying Shrewsbury on Saturday before they play us in the Papa John's.

They are in real trouble at the bottom of the table, and I wonder if they lose again at the weekend whether they might be tempted to rest players vs us? Probably not, but you'd think they will be prioritising staying in the division.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I note that Accy lost to Wycombe last night and host (relatively) high flying Shrewsbury on Saturday before they play us in the Papa John's.

They are in real trouble at the bottom of the table, and I wonder if they lose again at the weekend whether they might be tempted to rest players vs us? Probably not, but you'd think they will be prioritising staying in the division.

Furthermore, on the Saturday after playing us they go to Burton - currently four points above them having played a game more.

[TANGODANCER]

One day/game at a time is the way to go.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

On form. Firstly, sadly I won't be able to update the form-extrapolation tables - a wee problem with my Google account. Should be fixed soon.

Secondly, interesting BWFCi analysis on the top two. Plymouth are searing at home so it's more likely they'll slip away - as they temporarily did last night thanks to a keeper blunder. It might be their home form that gets them over the line. But - and this isn't form extrapolation, but history lessons from this time last year - their wheels fell off completely last spring, during which they went from eyeing the autos to missing the play-offs. I wonder whether that will prey on their minds if say they have a couple of bad results. We've already seen an Ipswich wobble extend itself for months...

[BWFC_Insane]

On form. Firstly, sadly I won't be able to update the form-extrapolation tables - a wee problem with my Google account. Should be fixed soon.

Secondly, interesting BWFCi analysis on the top two. Plymouth are searing at home so it's more likely they'll slip away - as they temporarily did last night thanks to a keeper blunder. It might be their home form that gets them over the line. But - and this isn't form extrapolation, but history lessons from this time last year - their wheels fell off completely last spring, during which they went from eyeing the autos to missing the play-offs. I wonder whether that will prey on their minds if say they have a couple of bad results. We've already seen an Ipswich wobble extend itself for months...

They've got a really good squad IMHO. Better than last season.

If they match their fallaway form from last season in their last 15 games (24 points amassed) it still gives them 91 points...funnily enough!

I'd expect them to do ever so slightly better than that. I think we're looking mid 90's points wise to have a chance - which leaves minimal margin for error.

You never can tell as you say, who'd have thought we'd be above Ipswich (albeit games in hand).

[Prufrock]

I note that Accy lost to Wycombe last night and host (relatively) high flying Shrewsbury on Saturday before they play us in the Papa John's.

They are in real trouble at the bottom of the table, and I wonder if they lose again at the weekend whether they might be tempted to rest players vs us? Probably not, but you'd think they will be prioritising staying in the division.

Furthermore, on the Saturday after playing us they go to Burton - currently four points above them having played a game more.

We were talking about this in the pub last night. Would be nice for someone else to do a Megson against us.

I think we're probably just about third on merit now, but equally wouldn't surprise to be 6th once the games in hand are played. Top 2 is a nice dream but I think we've left ourselves too much to do barring a collapse.

[The_Gun]

I now expect that some combination of the current top seven will ultimately complete the autos and playoff picture. Wycombe and Barnsley look to be separating themselves from the chasing pack, and Shrewsbury I don't expect to keep up.

What a shame that one of the best young midfielders in the division is a Bolton youth product but plays for a rival. Hopefully that's a situation we're now well positioned to avoid in the future.

[BWFC_Insane]

We've got to make the play offs. For sure. No drop off and ensure we can get there. Ideally in a position where the home leg is second.

But who would we want to play? I'd still instinctively want to avoid Derby. Wycombe I'd not fancy too much either.

Ipswich or Barnsley. Its an odd world. Go back to the infamous Barry Knight year....play offs were us, Barnsley, Birmingham and Ipswich.
Ipswich beat us (well them plus Barry) to go on and beat Barnsley in the final.
Potentially could be three of us again with maybe Derby or Wycombe in for Brum or maybe Barnsley or Ipswich even drop out.

Not sure who I'd really have a preference for. Wycombe are the sort of team that frequently upset the odds and on form are the sort who could effectively nullify us home and away and edge a very tight semi. Derby - our record against them is shocking, Warne seems to have the edge on Evatt and it would be a very tight game both legs with maybe one or two chances edging it. Not sure I'd fancy us in that sort of a scrap. Ipswich are falling away and you wonder how stung by another failure to go up automatically they might be. Time for them to right their form yet but still....Barnsley a team that looked like they'd be up there earlier in the season but have struggled a bit more than I expected. I'd be disappointed if we couldn't beat them over two legs now.....

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

On form. Firstly, sadly I won't be able to update the form-extrapolation tables - a wee problem with my Google account. Should be fixed soon.

Secondly, interesting BWFCi analysis on the top two. Plymouth are searing at home so it's more likely they'll slip away - as they temporarily did last night thanks to a keeper blunder. It might be their home form that gets them over the line. But - and this isn't form extrapolation, but history lessons from this time last year - their wheels fell off completely last spring, during which they went from eyeing the autos to missing the play-offs. I wonder whether that will prey on their minds if say they have a couple of bad results. We've already seen an Ipswich wobble extend itself for months...

They've got a really good squad IMHO. Better than last season.

If they match their fallaway form from last season in their last 15 games (24 points amassed) it still gives them 91 points...funnily enough!

Squad largely relies on strikers outperforming xG and goalkeeper massively outperforming xGa. The latter will cease. Let's see. And if they match last season's last-seven games form - LWDLDDL, culminating with a crucial 0-5 at home to MK Dons - then they won't get near 90pts.

But yeah, generally - we need them to wobble in order to catch them, there may not be enough road left.

However, if we go into the playoffs bang in form, it gives us a good chance. Winning becomes habitual. (And like you, I would fear Derby more than any other team.)

[TANGODANCER]

Just to show the unpredictability of football, I remember Stoke supporters touting placards around celebrating them beating us 5-0 before the game. We won 5-0.

[BWFC_Insane]

Just to show the unpredictability of football, I remember Stoke supporters touting placards around celebrating them beating us 5-0 before the game. We won 5-0.

And that was in the midst of a disastrously unforgiveable start to the season where we lost 13 out of the first 16 and were rooted to the bottom.