Reconstruction time again: the summer 2018 transfer thread

[BWFC_Insane]

On Villa: Swiss Ramble reckons they've got to shave off £45m this summer, "by cuts in wage bill or player sales."

https://twitter.com/SwissRamble/status/ ... 8983534593 (and thread below it)

I still do not agree with FFP. And Villa's predicament makes no odds to us really.

BUT, it couldn't happen to a less pleasant club. Hope they stagnate for decades.

Swiss Ramble is the expert, but that looks more on the optimistic side to me.

The problem Villa have is that everyone knows they are in a predicament and have to sell, meaning they are in a poor negotiating position and vulnerable to having to accept deals that aren't good for them. Also, Bruce being Bruce, he has loaded the squad with older players, so not many of the squad have much resale value. Grealish is the only player who can bring in a substantial fee, they have to cash in on him now whilst his stock is high. That might bring in £25m-£30m, plus the savings on his wages. The five players out of contract this summer look to be worth a saving of £11m-£12m. That still leaves them without a decent keeper, and without Terry, Hutton, Snodgrass, Grealish and Grabban.

Whether you like FFP or not, you have to say it adds an interesting dynamic to the Championship equation. It might be relevant to us. Bruce usually doesn't have much appetite for managing clubs who aren't able to compete financially. Villa without Bruce and their best five or six players, and with an aging squad, and on a general downer, might well find themselves lower mid table, where we aim to be...

They can cut their wage bill substantially by just releasing those out of contract.

It is going to be interesting times for them, but they'll still be top 6 next season IMHO.

[nelson66]

If we don't get any substantial investment (and I can't see our Ken providing it) than I think finishing anywhere above the relegation places is a great performance next season

[BWFC_Insane]

If we don't get any substantial investment (and I can't see our Ken providing it) than I think finishing anywhere above the relegation places is a great performance next season

Indeed. Likelihood is, if we can't invest in the squad we'll go down. KA has to find a way to free up some cash short term pending longer term large scale investment from external parties. That has to be the mission. Since I cannot see longer term investment from externals happening this side of the new season.

[bristol_Wanderer3]

If we don't get any substantial investment (and I can't see our Ken providing it) than I think finishing anywhere above the relegation places is a great performance next season

Indeed. Likelihood is, if we can't invest in the squad we'll go down. KA has to find a way to free up some cash short term pending longer term large scale investment from external parties. That has to be the mission. Since I cannot see longer term investment from externals happening this side of the new season.

I need convincing that Ken's idea of investment doesn't involve getting money into the club with him retaining his position. It is hard to see anybody investing on that basis if so.

It is looking right now like another almighty struggle. The bookies have us bottom by a distance, hard to disagree with them.

[BWFC_Insane]

If we don't get any substantial investment (and I can't see our Ken providing it) than I think finishing anywhere above the relegation places is a great performance next season

Indeed. Likelihood is, if we can't invest in the squad we'll go down. KA has to find a way to free up some cash short term pending longer term large scale investment from external parties. That has to be the mission. Since I cannot see longer term investment from externals happening this side of the new season.

I need convincing that Ken's idea of investment doesn't involve getting money into the club with him retaining his position. It is hard to see anybody investing on that basis if so.

It is looking right now like another almighty struggle. The bookies have us bottom by a distance, hard to disagree with them.

I think that's his preferred option. I also don't buy that necessarily makes it harder. It might preclude an outright sale, but investment takes many forms. Given Ken's football knowledge I'd be happy if he was still here running it, but we need some money to back it up. Ken needs to make sure he frees some cash from somewhere for next season, whilst he negotiates.

Plenty of investors want limelight, plenty also don't want to run the whole thing. You can achieve both.

[bristol_Wanderer3]

If we don't get any substantial investment (and I can't see our Ken providing it) than I think finishing anywhere above the relegation places is a great performance next season

Indeed. Likelihood is, if we can't invest in the squad we'll go down. KA has to find a way to free up some cash short term pending longer term large scale investment from external parties. That has to be the mission. Since I cannot see longer term investment from externals happening this side of the new season.

I need convincing that Ken's idea of investment doesn't involve getting money into the club with him retaining his position. It is hard to see anybody investing on that basis if so.

It is looking right now like another almighty struggle. The bookies have us bottom by a distance, hard to disagree with them.

I think that's his preferred option. I also don't buy that necessarily makes it harder. It might preclude an outright sale, but investment takes many forms. Given Ken's football knowledge I'd be happy if he was still here running it, but we need some money to back it up. Ken needs to make sure he frees some cash from somewhere for next season, whilst he negotiates.

Plenty of investors want limelight, plenty also don't want to run the whole thing. You can achieve both.

I struggle to think of anyone who would want to put £50m-£100m into anything and have the previous owner keep running it. It takes a lot for me to imagine there is someone out there to put that kind of money into something they have no connection with let alone do that and let the previous owner run it...

[BWFC_Insane]

If we don't get any substantial investment (and I can't see our Ken providing it) than I think finishing anywhere above the relegation places is a great performance next season

Indeed. Likelihood is, if we can't invest in the squad we'll go down. KA has to find a way to free up some cash short term pending longer term large scale investment from external parties. That has to be the mission. Since I cannot see longer term investment from externals happening this side of the new season.

I need convincing that Ken's idea of investment doesn't involve getting money into the club with him retaining his position. It is hard to see anybody investing on that basis if so.

It is looking right now like another almighty struggle. The bookies have us bottom by a distance, hard to disagree with them.

I think that's his preferred option. I also don't buy that necessarily makes it harder. It might preclude an outright sale, but investment takes many forms. Given Ken's football knowledge I'd be happy if he was still here running it, but we need some money to back it up. Ken needs to make sure he frees some cash from somewhere for next season, whilst he negotiates.

Plenty of investors want limelight, plenty also don't want to run the whole thing. You can achieve both.

I struggle to think of anyone who would want to put £50m-£100m into anything and have the previous owner keep running it. It takes a lot for me to imagine there is someone out there to put that kind of money into something they have no connection with let alone do that and let the previous owner run it...

Eddie put well over £100M and didn't want to run it....

Plus we're probably talking about substantially less initially. If Ken is trusted by someone putting money in, I can well imagine he runs it. There are different motivations here, and different scenarios.

[bristol_Wanderer3]

Eddie put well over £100M and didn't want to run it....

Plus we're probably talking about substantially less initially. If Ken is trusted by someone putting money in, I can well imagine he runs it. There are different motivations here, and different scenarios.

Eddie didn't getting involved planning to put £100m in. I think he put something like £14m in when he bought up all the then publicly traded shares. And he had known PG for some time and trusted him.

This is an entirely different scenario, with Ken searching for external investment, and asking £25m for an entity that loses £5m per year even on the current low budget. Any investor has to plan to spend at least £50m, meaning they need to be worth a lot more. How many of those are there? And out of those how many would let Ken stay in his position? I need convincing the answer to the first isn't zero, I can't be convinced the second answer isn't zero.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

On Villa: Swiss Ramble reckons they've got to shave off £45m this summer, "by cuts in wage bill or player sales."

https://twitter.com/SwissRamble/status/ ... 8983534593 (and thread below it)

I still do not agree with FFP. And Villa's predicament makes no odds to us really.

BUT, it couldn't happen to a less pleasant club. Hope they stagnate for decades.

Swiss Ramble is the expert, but that looks more on the optimistic side to me.

The problem Villa have is that everyone knows they are in a predicament and have to sell, meaning they are in a poor negotiating position and vulnerable to having to accept deals that aren't good for them. Also, Bruce being Bruce, he has loaded the squad with older players, so not many of the squad have much resale value. Grealish is the only player who can bring in a substantial fee, they have to cash in on him now whilst his stock is high. That might bring in £25m-£30m, plus the savings on his wages. The five players out of contract this summer look to be worth a saving of £11m-£12m. That still leaves them without a decent keeper, and without Terry, Hutton, Snodgrass, Grealish and Grabban.

Whether you like FFP or not, you have to say it adds an interesting dynamic to the Championship equation. It might be relevant to us. Bruce usually doesn't have much appetite for managing clubs who aren't able to compete financially. Villa without Bruce and their best five or six players, and with an aging squad, and on a general downer, might well find themselves lower mid table, where we aim to be...

They can cut their wage bill substantially by just releasing those out of contract.

It is going to be interesting times for them, but they'll still be top 6 next season IMHO.

They can, but not substantially enough. According to the Birmingham Mail, John Terry's on £4m a year after bonuses. I can't imagine he's on less than Alan Hutton, Chris Samba and Gabby Agbonlahor, so let's say that's £13m-£15m absolute tops. That leaves them £30m short of hitting the suggested FFP target. They can sell Grealish, although probably not for enough. They can stop loaning Premier League players like Snodgrass, Johnstone and Grabban. But if they do that, what sort of squad do they have? And how long is Steve Bruce going to hang around, especially if the fans turn?

Someone crunched the numbers last week on previous play-offs. More than half of non-promoted teams did worse the following year. 14 got relegated, which is only one fewer than subsequently went up via the play-offs. I don't know if Villa will get relegated – although folk said that about Sunderland – but it would not surprise me at all if they're nearer the bottom three than the top three.

And that would confirm to a few other clubs' experience over the last five years: clubs come down, have a go, tighten the belt, drift away. When we came down, we finished 7th, 14th, 18th, 24th. Blackburn, Wolves, Wigan and Sunderland have also dipped another division within five years of leaving the promised land.

Others have just settled into lower-table obscurity:
• Reading went down in 2013, then finished 7th, 19th, 17th, 3rd and 20th
• QPR (2015): 12th, 18th, 16th
• Norwich (2016): 8th then 14th
• Hull (2017) went straight to 17th.

There are other factors at work here, of course, and there are exceptions: seven teams relegated from the PL in the last five seasons have now been promoted, but five of them did it in the first year (three of which were instantly relegated again) and the other two got exactly the right manager in (Jokanovic and Warnock, turning round two teams who were struggling after being relegated in 2014).

Point is, and here's where it starts getting somewhat relevant to us, the teams who come down have got to really go for it in the first year but then, thanks to FFP, slacken off on the spending and salaries. The parachute payments are working to some extent, in that they're helping Premier emigrés get back up via a somewhat unfair fiscal advantage – but it's a brick on elastic.

For us, when we desperately look about for teams to finish above, it's tempting to keep clubs like Boro, Villa and Norwich above us Because Parachute. But it's a short-term thing, and now clubs like Derby are struggling to cope with the very mechanism intended to prop them up.

[nelson66]

Jeff King has been let go

He's just announced on his twitter

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Jeff King has been let go

He's just announced on his twitter

Indeed. For everyone but Bruce:

He'll have to change his bio, header pic and avatar...

[Prufrock]

He'll have to change his bio, header pic and avatar...

Ah... the new PSG.

[jmjhb]

Sounds like he may have turned down a deal because he wanted first team football? Not that it really matters...

[bristol_Wanderer3]

Saw him in his only league start at Bristol City. In the Vela role, he looked competent and didn't look out of place, but equally didn't look like he had that something that was going to consistently create chances or score goals. And didn't look an outstanding athlete. Sort of like Morais without the crossing ability. At 22 it makes sense for him to go lower and get games. Wouldn't surprise me if he has a decent pro career. I wish him well.

[nelson66]

I've got a mate who is an fc-utd fan - where King was sent on loan - going from what he said - King was a cut above anyone else they had on their books

I don't get it - we spend loads on developing players like Jeff King - and then never get a bean for them - just let their contracts run down and never try to sell them

Oscar Threlkeld being a good example

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Sounds like he may have turned down a deal because he wanted first team football? Not that it really matters...

Nah, I suspect he may be making lemonade. He's 23 before Christmas and his last loan was to Division Six North, so I don't think he'd be daft enough to thump Parky's table demanding more gametime. Good luck to him – he might make it down the leagues, seems to have the right attitude and does need a decent run in a senior side at some level, but I doubt we'll spend much time this season bemoaning his absence.

[BWFC_Insane]

I've got a mate who is an fc-utd fan - where King was sent on loan - going from what he said - King was a cut above anyone else they had on their books

I don't get it - we spend loads on developing players like Jeff King - and then never get a bean for them - just let their contracts run down and never try to sell them

Oscar Threlkeld being a good example

I mean he's 22. I'd hope he was a cut above non-league. That's still a long, long way from being able to contribute to a championship side.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

There is a middle ground, in which we sell players to lower-league clubs for low fee with high sell-on clauses. David Norris was the bets example of that. But contractually, things have been a little... tight recently.

[Prufrock]

Sounds like he may have turned down a deal because he wanted first team football? Not that it really matters...

Nah, I suspect he may be making lemonade. He's 23 before Christmas and his last loan was to Division Six North, so I don't think he'd be daft enough to thump Parky's table demanding more gametime. Good luck to him – he might make it down the leagues, seems to have the right attitude and does need a decent run in a senior side at some level, but I doubt we'll spend much time this season bemoaning his absence.

I wouldn't be so sure of that!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Sounds like he may have turned down a deal because he wanted first team football? Not that it really matters...

Nah, I suspect he may be making lemonade. He's 23 before Christmas and his last loan was to Division Six North, so I don't think he'd be daft enough to thump Parky's table demanding more gametime. Good luck to him – he might make it down the leagues, seems to have the right attitude and does need a decent run in a senior side at some level, but I doubt we'll spend much time this season bemoaning his absence.

I wouldn't be so sure of that!

Maybe - put it on the list of things to moan about, we'll get round to it in time