We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

[jmjhb]

Millwall are in great form but that has to end sometime.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Bad Easter. Naughty Easter. The feelgood factor of that pre-break Villa win is but a distant memory; without those three points we’d no longer have our destiny in our own hands.

Over the two Easter matchdays, we got zero points, which meant that almost every single one of our rivals did better than us – some significantly so.

MATCHDAY 39
Barnsley 2-2 Bristol City
Cardiff 3-1 Burton
Leeds 2-1 Bolton
Sheff Weds 4-1 Preston
Reading 1-0 QPR
Derby 1-4 Sunderland
Birmingham 1-0 Ipswich
Hull 0-0 Villa

MATCHDAY 40
Burton 1-1 Boro
Sunderland 1-3 Sheff Wed
(Forest P-P Barnsley)
Villa 3-0 Reading
Wolves 2-2 Hull
Bolton 0-1 Birmingham

Barnsley gained a point and a game in hand. Even Burton gained a point on us. Sunderland gained three, while Reading got three to clamber above us on goal difference. Above us, Hull got two from two difficult fixtures (Villa and Wolves) while a Nuhiu-inspired Sheffield Wednesday, who were only two points above us before the break, have roared off through the Forest and over the horizon. No point tracking them in this thread any more unless and until they're in sight.

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And so to this weekend: buckle up, folks.

Barnsley v Sheffield United (Sat 12.45 - all others 3pm)
Birmingham v Burton
Derby v Bolton
Hull v QPR
Reading v Preston

Barnsley host Sheffield United in the Saturday lunchtime kick-off, and with the Blades only a point behind the fourth play-off team Middlesbrough, you’d hope Wilder’s men would be up for the South Yorkshire derby.

Birmingham host Burton and the Brewers are already eight points from safety with six games left, so this must be approaching their last stand. Trouble is, they’re bobbins, and unless the Blues get the yips it’s hard to see past a home win.

Reading host Preston, who are now three points off the play-offs thanks to somehow contriving to lose to Derby. We’ll have to hope Alex Neil will have his lads ready to make up lost ground. Paul Clement has hardly been weaving magic at the MadStad: they beat QPR despite allowing 27 shots on goal (including a penalty) and Villa went one better with 28 attempts on goal (three successful). I fancy Preston to win this, causing fear and loathing in royal Berkshire.

Finally, because they’re only two points above us (and Brum and Reading), Hull host QPR. The Rs have been a curate’s egg this season but they seem to be in productive mood recently: on Monday they came from a goal down to beat Norwich (17 attempts on goal); before that they were howlingly unlucky at Reading (27 attempts), before that they came from 2-0 down to draw at Fulham (13 attempts, more than the home side); before that they won 3-1 at Villa. Hull have also had a couple of good draws against big boys but will they keep their game on against less exciting opponents?

And then there’s us. Derby has not been a happy place for us – in 12 league visits since 1981 we’ve managed four draws and no wins – but neither has it been a happy place for them, recently: for God’s sake, Sunderland won 4-1 there. Since beating Brentford there in early February the Rams have been held at home by Norwich and Leeds, and beaten by Fulham and Sunderland; they’d have lost three home games on the bounce but for an injury-time equaliser against Leeds. And although they won at Preston this weekend, it was an extremely fortunate result: they had 2 attempts to Preston’s 19, and their xG was an astonishingly low 0.1.

None of which means dick unless we play well. But Derby isn’t the impossible game we might have thought when first surveying the run-in – Preston was their first win in nine – and things might be in our favour. I wouldn’t expect Derby to sit deep, and I would expect a better performance then we showed against Birmingham. In fact, I demand it.

[BWFC_Insane]

We've no chance of anything at Derby.

For me we've a 3 game season. Barnsley, Burton and Forest.

Anything we get against Derby, Millwall and Wolves is an absolute bonus.

Think we're going sadly......the writing has been on the wall for some time. Without Madine we have to do too much to get results and although we beat BC and AV - both those games relied on us getting the fine margins and sneaking unexpected wins. Come the crunch at the end of the season we don't have the players to play football. We have a team of grafters, if we can't lump it, we're simply not good enough to break down teams in pressure games. Last night was incredibly telling. We tried. But the quality simply isn't there. Birmingham played simple "knock it long football". We can't do that.

[Prufrock]

Oh will you give it a fecking rest.

You can assume that, unless you say otherwise, we all know you think it's all going to go wrong.

[Prufrock]

The feelgood factor of that pre-break Villa win is but a distant memory; without those three points we’d no longer have our destiny in our own hands.

Boo sir, point of order: yes we would. Still got to play Barnsley.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

The feelgood factor of that pre-break Villa win is but a distant memory; without those three points we’d no longer have our destiny in our own hands.

Boo sir, point of order: yes we would. Still got to play Barnsley.

Good point well made. Claim retracted.

[BWFC_Insane]

assuming a lower-than-average 45 point safety margin.

Not that much lower: over the last ten years, the average total of the highest-relegated team has been 45.7pts, but in four of the last seven seasons it's been 44 or less, and in three of the last six it's been 41 or less. (Points total of highest-relegated teams, going back: 51, 40, 41, 44, 54, 40, 42, 47, 46, 52.)

Just saying like. A minor point on a small phrase in the middle of a reasonable post.

Ah I seem to have been misremembering my average - thought there were more seasons at the 50 mark. Thanks

I think we're squarely in the relegation scrap now. If we turn up - as we did with Villa - I can see us hauling ourselves just over the 45 point margin, but we're blowing more cold than hot at the moment. A few friends who went to the match last night weren't massively glowing in their feedback, ignoring the two penalty calls. I think Iles said that we didn't manage a single shot on target against 10 men until the last 5-10 minutes? Although I have noticed that this is the first time we've lost two league games on the bounce since February, which was immediately followed by a 1-0 win over Sunderland, so here's to hope!

I don't think we're nailed on for relegation as Insano does (sorry chap) but I do think that it's a growing risk with our performances seemingly lessening lately.

Didn't manage a single shot on target period...Brum had 3....

We're not nailed on I accept that. But the writing is on the wall. We're going to have to put in a couple of huge performances and we're getting key injuries. Really hope we can scrape above the line, but last night was a shock to the system.

[Prufrock]

Reading are in big big trouble too. Of their six games left only Ipswich and probably Wednesday have nothing to play for. Cardiff, Preston and Fulham, and Sunderland the other games.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I think Iles said that we didn't manage a single shot on target against 10 men until the last 5-10 minutes? Although I have noticed that this is the first time we've lost two league games on the bounce since February, which was immediately followed by a 1-0 win over Sunderland, so here's to hope!

If he did, he was wrong, according to the BBC's Press Association stats: we didn't manage a single attempt on target all night. All eight efforts were off-beam.

Meanwhile, and speaking of stats, Experimental361 has crunched the numbers again, running the fixtures thousands of times using the quality of chances each club habitually creates and allows (rather than naked results). We're now about (shuts one eye, squints, sticks tongue out of corner of mouth) 25% probable to go down, up from around 8% after the VIlla win; Barnsley are around 42%, presumably clawing back some percentage points from us – Birmingham are now less likely than us to drop. Notably, the model sees it as a four-way shootout for that last relegation slot - the bottom two have about a 4% chance of survival.

https://experimental361.com/2018/04/04/ ... -apr-2018/

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[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Reading are in big big trouble too. Of their six games left only Ipswich and probably Wednesday have nothing to play for. Cardiff, Preston and Fulham, and Sunderland the other games.

Interesting, aye. And the games come thick and fast – there's another round next midweek.

After hosting Preston they travel to Fulham, who are currently five points off automatic promotion. Four days later they host Sunderland, and that could be the day the Mackems mathematically drop, so owt could happen there. Then a week later they're at Wednesday, who are on fine form; then it's Ipswich at home, which looks like a dolly but you never know what Mick Mac might do on his last away game. Then they finish at Cardiff, which is a hound of a closer.

Another thing on Reading: in their two games under Clement they've produced a fifth of frig-all up top. Yes, they beat QPR, somehow, but even by our standards that was the sort of "fine margins" win you can't always repeat. (For comparison, our xG last night was 0.7 to Birmingham's 1.1; at Leeds, it was a statistically pleasing 1.0 to their 2.0.)

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[TANGODANCER]

I'm a bit surprised Parky didn't go for the simple solution last night , particularly second half. Midfield not working, we're one down and it wouldn't matter if that were ten as long as we scored eleven. Last season, Wheater and Beevers scored 15 goals between them; last night I'd have brought Wheater in, forgot about midfield and sent him and Beevers up with Alf. The rest, for what effect they had could stay in in our half, defend (well, seven should be enough surely?) and just wallop ariel bombs over the cabbage patch to the three musketeers. We lost anyway, so why not, they won't have forgotten how to head a ball will they? Doesn't matter really how Barcelona you are or aren't if you lose after all.

It might be worth pointing out that we're still effectively broke, have no players to sell and yet the fans turned out to support in numbers. Pity the players didn't do the same.

[BWFC_Insane]

I'm a bit surprised Parky didn't go for the simple solution last night , particularly second half. Midfield not working, we're one down and it wouldn't matter if that were ten as long as we scored eleven. Last season, Wheater and Beevers scored 15 goals between them; last night I'd have brought Wheater in, forgot about midfield and sent him and Beevers up with Alf. The rest, for what effect they had could stay in in our half, defend (well, seven should be enough surely?) and just wallop ariel bombs over the cabbage patch to the three musketeers. We lost anyway, so why not, they won't have forgotten how to head a ball will they? Doesn't matter really how Barcelona you are or aren't if you lose after all.

It might be worth pointing out that we're still effectively broke, have no players to sell and yet the fans turned out to support in numbers. Pity the players didn't do the same.

Indeed. I thought it odd we aren't chucking Wheater or Beevers up there, I mean when Henry got injured we could have abandoned midfield basically and thrown Wheats on and gone long.

Given we weren't creating anything it was worth a go.

If I have a criticism of Parky its that he's not radical or experimental in situations that demand it. Sam would have thrown Wheats up there and be damned with the criticism it brought. We needed a way to get the ball up there and keep it up there. That offered one such (basic) way.

I'd also like to see Parky be creative now given our midfield crisis. I see it thus. Flanagan looks tidy and can pass a simple ball without being spectacular. Before he came Little was one of our best players. Why not try Flanners in midfield (given Henry and Kirchoff are injured and Derik is poor) and put Little back in at right back?

At Derby we have little to lose and we need something radical. Shift a few around. Robinson left wing for me - we need pace and he has some.

[nelson66]

Too much hand wringing and misery on this thread.... for christs sake get a grip

We are staying up .... I say we are staying up
We are staying up .... I say we are staying up
We are staying up .... I say we are staying up
We are staying up .... I say we are staying up
We are staying up .... I say we are staying up
We are staying up .... I say we are staying up

21st place thats all we need - Barnsley are sinking without trace......Sunderland and Burton are shitter than us....

We are staying up .... I say we are staying up

[Burnden Paddock]

DSB, Insane: Just checked - it now says no shots at all so I either misread after checking late last night, or it's been corrected. Both equally likely

Didn't Noone have a shot blocked very late on, which was going on target? Not that it matters, as we were feckin awful!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

DSB, Insane: Just checked - it now says no shots at all so I either misread after checking late last night, or it's been corrected. Both equally likely

Didn't Noone have a shot blocked very late on, which was going on target? Not that it matters, as we were feckin awful!

Iles described it as going on-target, but the official stats don't. As you say, either way, it's a bald man's comb.

Indeed. I thought it odd we aren't chucking Wheater or Beevers up there, I mean when Henry got injured we could have abandoned midfield basically and thrown Wheats on and gone long.

Given we weren't creating anything it was worth a go.

If I have a criticism of Parky its that he's not radical or experimental in situations that demand it. Sam would have thrown Wheats up there and be damned with the criticism it brought. We needed a way to get the ball up there and keep it up there. That offered one such (basic) way.

I'd also like to see Parky be creative now given our midfield crisis. I see it thus. Flanagan looks tidy and can pass a simple ball without being spectacular. Before he came Little was one of our best players. Why not try Flanners in midfield (given Henry and Kirchoff are injured and Derik is poor) and put Little back in at right back?

At Derby we have little to lose and we need something radical. Shift a few around. Robinson left wing for me - we need pace and he has some.

Interesting. I too was urging Parky to stop sitting on his hands, and to be fair to him he made a change after 56 minutes - just not necessarily the one most might have made, bringing on Noone. (Taking off Derik and dropping Josh deeper made perfect sense.) That's just changing personnel rather than system, and I'd have hoped for us to be looking to change our formation earlier. I know you can't always make a substitution immediately, but they went down to 10 men on 67 minutes and it took another five for Clough to appear: we'd gone four-fifths of the game with one striker at home in a must-win game we were losing. 4-2-3-1 is a nicely balanced formation and I'd retain it for most situations but it won't easily penetrate two deep ranks of four in a low block doggedly defending a lead.

That's made worse because our recent iteration of 4-2-3-1 has two Old-Fashioned Defenders at full-back. I like Taylor when we need solidity but he offers nowt in the oppo half. Flanagan looks dependable too but I'm yet to see any evidence of the attacking brio that saw him nicknamed the Scouse Cafu. Furthermore, since those two settled into the back four we've now conceded in four of five games – only one every time, but that's usually enough to spike our guns when we've gone 17 league games without scoring twice in a match.

I said before the game that I'd rather have Robinson and Little as overlapping full-backs to help stretch Birmingham - either getting in behind them if they attack or getting round the side if they defend. As noted, with Taylor static and Buckley drifting inwards we were doing exactly as Monk would have wanted: coming inside into traffic.

And I still haven't worked out what a Buckley is. What is a Buckley?

Although he may not rapidly switch to Plan B during a game, Parky's proved himself capable of rethinks. Indeed, Iles reports that the manager's last press-conference words were that he has a lot of thinking to do. I hope he restores Robinson and Little to the backline, perhaps reintroducing Wheater (presumably for Burke) for a touch more solidity.

Central midfield will need some thinking, considering the injuries to Henry and Kirchhoff – to be fair to Parky, his third substitution was enforced; inevitably it would have been Wilbraham – and especially because I'd like to restore Pratley to the No.10 role instead of the frankly underwhelming Vela. The captain isn't everyone's cup of tea and he's certainly not my favourite brew but we need him and he works. Someone has worked out that we've won 25 points from the 20 full games he's played, a return of 1.25ppg; in matches he hasn't lasted the 90, that drops to 6pts from 6 games; when he hasn't played at all, it drops to 8pts from 13 games (0.6ppg). Given that we appear unable to avoid the high ball forward even when there's midgets up there, I'd get him back winning possession in their half.

Who plays in the two of the 4-2-3-1 is up for debate. Henry and Kirchhoff would be the best combo but both are injured; Derik stills worries the hell out of most people; Karacan may not have the nous to play there; Vela perhaps could, although it's a while since I heard anyone say anything good about poor old Josh. Flanagan is an interesting shout; it would require some positional retraining, but he'd have the advantage of being able to drop in to either full-back zone as cover.

ALF and Sammy have to play, because they're our best hopes. The remaining slot could go to the Postman, assuming Zach is deemed to have fluffed his audition. But if we're using Morais as a crosser of the ball, we need people willing to attack it.

[Peter Thompson]

I'd also like to see Parky be creative now given our midfield crisis.

I'm not sure if this sentence would ever be associated with Parkinson....

We don't score many goals, basically down to our lack of creativity & attacking intent - ALF has chipped in but why doesn't Parkinson have Obasi on the bench, he must surely be fit enough now to play 30 mins - he has a better pedigree than any of our other strikers, and has pace, something different for the opposition to worry about.

[BWFC_Insane]

I'd also like to see Parky be creative now given our midfield crisis.

I'm not sure if this sentence would ever be associated with Parkinson....

We don't score many goals, basically down to our lack of creativity & attacking intent - ALF has chipped in but why doesn't Parkinson have Obasi on the bench, he must surely be fit enough now to play 30 mins - he has a better pedigree than any of our other strikers, and has pace, something different for the opposition to worry about.

I don't mean "play expansive football". We haven't got that ability. But I'd like to try moving the fit players we've got around. If Derik plays anymore games then for me we're truly fecked. Try Flanagan in there. Try Robinson left wing. Get Morais in for set pieces.

Also if Ameobi plays at Derby that will be madness. The lad needs a rest, he clearly has some health issues going on.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Forest-Barnsley postponed, waterlogged pitch.

Which gives Barnsley the game in hand, which frankly I'd prefer they didn't have...

But if we win, that may well increase the tension on them...ie, we need to win rather than worry about them...do that and the problem fades, more so if they should lose that game in hand.

But if we lose, then instead of them having also lost against Sherwood Forest, they have the incentive to gain enough points over us to overtake us. Calculating the opposition's mental state is always going to be a guessing game, but if I were a Tyke I'd definitely be happier today than I was yesterday...

[Edit] ...and I know what you're saying - basically we have it in our own hands. But, sorry, I'm just a natural pessimist.

Just as I said...

[Lost Leopard Spot]

We've no chance of anything at Derby.

For me we've a 3 game season. Barnsley, Burton and Forest.

Anything we get against Derby, Millwall and Wolves is an absolute bonus.

Think we're going sadly......the writing has been on the wall for some time. Without Madine we have to do too much to get results and although we beat BC and AV - both those games relied on us getting the fine margins and sneaking unexpected wins. Come the crunch at the end of the season we don't have the players to play football. We have a team of grafters, if we can't lump it, we're simply not good enough to break down teams in pressure games. Last night was incredibly telling. We tried. But the quality simply isn't there. Birmingham played simple "knock it long football". We can't do that.

Will you fxck off about Madine... Madine has NOTHING to do with losing to Brum.

[GhostoftheBok]

We've no chance of anything at Derby.

For me we've a 3 game season. Barnsley, Burton and Forest.

Anything we get against Derby, Millwall and Wolves is an absolute bonus.

Think we're going sadly......the writing has been on the wall for some time. Without Madine we have to do too much to get results and although we beat BC and AV - both those games relied on us getting the fine margins and sneaking unexpected wins. Come the crunch at the end of the season we don't have the players to play football. We have a team of grafters, if we can't lump it, we're simply not good enough to break down teams in pressure games. Last night was incredibly telling. We tried. But the quality simply isn't there. Birmingham played simple "knock it long football". We can't do that.

Will you fxck off about Madine... Madine has NOTHING to do with losing to Brum.

Trying to play as though Madine was still up front, when we actually had ALF there, had a lot to do with losing to Brum.