Ken Anderson - Old Owner (Definitely. For Ever ..... )

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Here's a fun game: what do we think is the minimum Ken would let us go to the wall over.

I.e. if he sells the club he gets £x, if he lets it go to the wall, he's likely to recover £x + £y.

What's the lowest we think £y would have to be before it's Goodnight Vienna?

I think if it was simply about £ we wouldn't be in this situation. Ego, drama, death wish, insanity, whatever it is he doesn't appear to be slowing down...

Well. Let's just game play this.
Either he's got no buyer, one buyer or more than one buyer.
If he has multiple buyers he will push it to the absolute wire to squeeze the last shekel out of one of them.
If he has just one buyer, he will pretend he has two in order to squeeze the last shekel out of the one.
If he has no buyer he will play the game to best of his ability to squeeze shekels out of whatever prospects are left (which will probably be to play a long game in order to get a buyer).

[BWFC_Insane]

It's not inevitable that we will go into administration is it? Pay day might make folk twitchy but the takeover can still go ahead without a points deduction in theory can't it?

There are all sorts of scenarios that do not lead to points deductions... Including Kenneth still in charge in nine months time having scraped each and every barrel to come up with the necessary on an emergency basis for each and every time somebody has called "foul" (as he has been doing for two years now...).

That is absolutely not a possibility.

Of course it's a fxcking possibility.
It may be a very low probability in the range of miniscule to tiny, but it is still a fxcking possibility.

Its about as possible as you funding the ever growing ~£10M worth of money's owed by the club and then forking out the ~£800K a month gap in running costs for the next 9 months.

[Worthy4England]

Question is where is "ever growing" coming from. 2017 we showed a small loss £175k. 2018 Anderson is proclaiming a small profit. So since June last year our outgoings have gone from small profit to £800k gap in running costs (that's clearly too high as Anderson hasn't had to pay that every month)....but what the feck has it gone on. I didn't notice much of a player splurge...

[BWFC_Insane]

Question is where is "ever growing" coming from. 2017 we showed a small loss £175k. 2018 Anderson is proclaiming a small profit. So since June last year our outgoings have gone from small profit to £800k gap in running costs (that's clearly too high as Anderson hasn't had to pay that every month)....but what the feck has it gone on. I didn't notice much of a player splurge...

The small profit was achieved due to the sale of Madine. Year before also included player sales.

Monthly losses have been reported at around £800K. Then you have the settling of Blumarble via the ED loan that's another £5M though someone claims £8M is owed in total....(possibly ED was bailing the club out to a greater extent than was known).

You have the money owed to the council (over £1.5M), heathcotes, the police, countless smaller creditors.

Your question is a fair one as to "what on earth have we done" but I suspect player sales covered a multitude of sins...also Ken's history....

[Worthy4England]

Question is where is "ever growing" coming from. 2017 we showed a small loss £175k. 2018 Anderson is proclaiming a small profit. So since June last year our outgoings have gone from small profit to £800k gap in running costs (that's clearly too high as Anderson hasn't had to pay that every month)....but what the feck has it gone on. I didn't notice much of a player splurge...

The small profit was achieved due to the sale of Madine. Year before also included player sales.

Monthly losses have been reported at around £800K. Then you have the settling of Blumarble via the ED loan that's another £5M though someone claims £8M is owed in total....(possibly ED was bailing the club out to a greater extent than was known).

You have the money owed to the council (over £1.5M), heathcotes, the police, countless smaller creditors.

Your question is a fair one as to "what on earth have we done" but I suspect player sales covered a multitude of sins...also Ken's history....

Player sales is certainly part of it. Not showing a £5m income from a player sale on a Revenue of £8/9m is a huge chunk. But even if I take £5m off a "small profit", then I'm still only at half of £800k. I didn't actually see £800k as the "reported monthly losses" - the only context I ever saw it in was when Anderson said he'd have to put that amount in for January's wages (in the next para he talked about putting £1m in again, which I suspect is part of how you get from £5m to £8m) - if that were true then we're losing around £150k per month not £800k per month, but in the previous year, I assume you paid most of your bills...this year we seem to have been ducking all of them.

[Hoboh]

Events in another place are easier to follow and make more sense than Kens mess!

[bristol_Wanderer3]

Question is where is "ever growing" coming from. 2017 we showed a small loss £175k. 2018 Anderson is proclaiming a small profit. So since June last year our outgoings have gone from small profit to £800k gap in running costs (that's clearly too high as Anderson hasn't had to pay that every month)....but what the feck has it gone on. I didn't notice much of a player splurge...

My understanding is:

2017 - Overall loss in accounts was indeed £175k. Comprised as follows:

Operating loss - £13.1m
Interest on loans/other finance charges - £1.9m

Overall loss essentially £15m.

ED (Fildraw) reduced his charge on the books from £15.2m to £10m. So a paper profit of £5.2m.
Profit on selling car parks and offices to Michael James £4.2m
Players sales (Clough and I think Holding) £5.5m.

2018 - Ken stated (when he didn't appear to be lying) that the club was running at an operating loss of £5m-£6m. We sold Madine for £5m plus "over £1m bonus" on Cardiff's promotion. So say £6.25m. Hence small profit.

2019 - The whole thing has gone completely off the rails.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

It's not inevitable that we will go into administration is it? Pay day might make folk twitchy but the takeover can still go ahead without a points deduction in theory can't it?

There are all sorts of scenarios that do not lead to points deductions... Including Kenneth still in charge in nine months time having scraped each and every barrel to come up with the necessary on an emergency basis for each and every time somebody has called "foul" (as he has been doing for two years now...).

That is absolutely not a possibility.

Of course it's a fxcking possibility.
It may be a very low probability in the range of miniscule to tiny, but it is still a fxcking possibility.

Its about as possible as you funding the ever growing ~£10M worth of money's owed by the club and then forking out the ~£800K a month gap in running costs for the next 9 months.

You haven't got a clue what I, or anybody else, can fund. You can have a guess, but you don't KNOW.

[bristol_Wanderer3]

[tweet]As I understand it, for someone to individually trigger admin it takes a good few days. There is a way all qualifying charge holders could appoint immediately, though.[/tweet]

^^ Looks like we can only go into admin before the 28th deadline with Ken's agreement which surely makes it less likely...

[TANGODANCER]

Once, way back, saw a film starring Sean Connery. The plot was the most complicated, tangled spider-web of a mix up that in the end, all the parties involved just gave it up and walked away. It was called, cough.."The Anderson Tapes...

[Worthy4England]

^^ Looks like we can only go into admin before the 28th deadline with Ken's agreement which surely makes it less likely...

Not sure why we keep coming back to Admin - I don't see which of the Creditors would favour it as an option (so therefore would question why any of them would go for it)

[bristol_Wanderer3]

^^ Looks like we can only go into admin before the 28th deadline with Ken's agreement which surely makes it less likely...

Not sure why we keep coming back to Admin - I don't see which of the Creditors would favour it as an option (so therefore would question why any of them would go for it)

The benefits of admin I see are:

1.) If there is a belief that KA is driving potential suitors away due to his demands/negotiating tactics then going into admin takes it out of his hands, before a potential winding up order in the 3rd April.

2.) The price in admin reduces substantially because there is no need to pay off all the unsecured creditors and no need to pay off KA. In fact it appears to make such poor financial sense, I cannot think of a single good reason to buy the club out of admin and pay off all debts, unless the buyer is so rich that tens of millions don't matter and he/she likes the idea of owning us.

There are many disadvantages of admin though so it may well not be the best route to take. It may well be possible to come to agreements with creditors outside admin, but if KA looks like he is driving towards the cliff edge then....

[Worthy4England]

^^ Looks like we can only go into admin before the 28th deadline with Ken's agreement which surely makes it less likely...

Not sure why we keep coming back to Admin - I don't see which of the Creditors would favour it as an option (so therefore would question why any of them would go for it)

The benefits of admin I see are:

1.) If there is a belief that KA is driving potential suitors away due to his demands/negotiating tactics then going into admin takes it out of his hands, before a potential winding up order in the 3rd April.

2.) The price in admin reduces substantially because there is no need to pay off all the unsecured creditors and no need to pay off KA. In fact it appears to make such poor financial sense, I cannot think of a single good reason to buy the club out of admin and pay off all debts, unless the buyer is so rich that tens of millions don't matter and he/she likes the idea of owning us.

There are many disadvantages of admin though so it may well not be the best route to take. It may well be possible to come to agreements with creditors outside admin, but if KA looks like he is driving towards the cliff edge then....

I not sure any of the people listed at 1) are unsecured to the point where meeting the cost of admin would outstrip the value of the assets they're secured against...

I don't think 2) helps any of the people who could put us into Admin, as the only entity that currently has to pay unsecured creditors is Burnden Leisure (not strictly true there are a number of related entities). It would help a future purchased potentially - so I could see why it might be better for the Club to go into Admin, I can't see why it helps any of the people who could put us there.

[bristol_Wanderer3]

^^ Looks like we can only go into admin before the 28th deadline with Ken's agreement which surely makes it less likely...

Not sure why we keep coming back to Admin - I don't see which of the Creditors would favour it as an option (so therefore would question why any of them would go for it)

The benefits of admin I see are:

1.) If there is a belief that KA is driving potential suitors away due to his demands/negotiating tactics then going into admin takes it out of his hands, before a potential winding up order in the 3rd April.

2.) The price in admin reduces substantially because there is no need to pay off all the unsecured creditors and no need to pay off KA. In fact it appears to make such poor financial sense, I cannot think of a single good reason to buy the club out of admin and pay off all debts, unless the buyer is so rich that tens of millions don't matter and he/she likes the idea of owning us.

There are many disadvantages of admin though so it may well not be the best route to take. It may well be possible to come to agreements with creditors outside admin, but if KA looks like he is driving towards the cliff edge then....

I not sure any of the people listed at 1) are unsecured to the point where meeting the cost of admin would outstrip the value of the assets they're secured against...

I don't think 2) helps any of the people who could put us into Admin, as the only entity that currently has to pay unsecured creditors is Burnden Leisure (not strictly true there are a number of related entities). It would help a future purchased potentially - so I could see why it might be better for the Club to go into Admin, I can't see why it helps any of the people who could put us there.

Yes I agree from a purely financial point of view the secured creditors could just realize their collateral, and that is likely to be better for them than admin. Surely though Michael James, Trustees of ED and Brett Warburton all have some desire for the well being of BWFC, and hence would want an outcome that ensures the future of BWFC?

Funding admin would definitely be an issue. The only person who I could see funding it would be Michael James. Given he joined with the Basran group, admin would be a way of getting them back in the mix also, particularly if it was felt the mystery party aren't going to do a deal.

[BWFC_Insane]

^^ Looks like we can only go into admin before the 28th deadline with Ken's agreement which surely makes it less likely...

Not sure why we keep coming back to Admin - I don't see which of the Creditors would favour it as an option (so therefore would question why any of them would go for it)

The benefits of admin I see are:

1.) If there is a belief that KA is driving potential suitors away due to his demands/negotiating tactics then going into admin takes it out of his hands, before a potential winding up order in the 3rd April.

2.) The price in admin reduces substantially because there is no need to pay off all the unsecured creditors and no need to pay off KA. In fact it appears to make such poor financial sense, I cannot think of a single good reason to buy the club out of admin and pay off all debts, unless the buyer is so rich that tens of millions don't matter and he/she likes the idea of owning us.

There are many disadvantages of admin though so it may well not be the best route to take. It may well be possible to come to agreements with creditors outside admin, but if KA looks like he is driving towards the cliff edge then....

If what is being said elsewhere is true and the price out of admin is close to £20M then I'm unconvinced admin is the magic option. In fact I'm worried that we might not come out of admin. The value of the business drops with points fines, and 2 year transfer embargo seriously restricting a new owner. At the same time the debt level doesn't change significantly given the level of secured debt....

[bristol_Wanderer3]

^^ Looks like we can only go into admin before the 28th deadline with Ken's agreement which surely makes it less likely...

Not sure why we keep coming back to Admin - I don't see which of the Creditors would favour it as an option (so therefore would question why any of them would go for it)

The benefits of admin I see are:

1.) If there is a belief that KA is driving potential suitors away due to his demands/negotiating tactics then going into admin takes it out of his hands, before a potential winding up order in the 3rd April.

2.) The price in admin reduces substantially because there is no need to pay off all the unsecured creditors and no need to pay off KA. In fact it appears to make such poor financial sense, I cannot think of a single good reason to buy the club out of admin and pay off all debts, unless the buyer is so rich that tens of millions don't matter and he/she likes the idea of owning us.

There are many disadvantages of admin though so it may well not be the best route to take. It may well be possible to come to agreements with creditors outside admin, but if KA looks like he is driving towards the cliff edge then....

If what is being said elsewhere is true and the price out of admin is close to £20M then I'm unconvinced admin is the magic option. In fact I'm worried that we might not come out of admin. The value of the business drops with points fines, and 2 year transfer embargo seriously restricting a new owner. At the same time the debt level doesn't change significantly given the level of secured debt....

Definitely not a magic option. It definitely gets much worse if we can't do it before 29th March. Just maybe the least worst option to take. Means we are not completely reliant on KA's deal making skills and won't be liquidated shortly after the 3rd April. The price out of admin, paying off all debts is likely £35m-£40m, so if the £20m is accurate it is a big saving.

[Worthy4England]

^^ Looks like we can only go into admin before the 28th deadline with Ken's agreement which surely makes it less likely...

Not sure why we keep coming back to Admin - I don't see which of the Creditors would favour it as an option (so therefore would question why any of them would go for it)

The benefits of admin I see are:

1.) If there is a belief that KA is driving potential suitors away due to his demands/negotiating tactics then going into admin takes it out of his hands, before a potential winding up order in the 3rd April.

2.) The price in admin reduces substantially because there is no need to pay off all the unsecured creditors and no need to pay off KA. In fact it appears to make such poor financial sense, I cannot think of a single good reason to buy the club out of admin and pay off all debts, unless the buyer is so rich that tens of millions don't matter and he/she likes the idea of owning us.

There are many disadvantages of admin though so it may well not be the best route to take. It may well be possible to come to agreements with creditors outside admin, but if KA looks like he is driving towards the cliff edge then....

I not sure any of the people listed at 1) are unsecured to the point where meeting the cost of admin would outstrip the value of the assets they're secured against...

I don't think 2) helps any of the people who could put us into Admin, as the only entity that currently has to pay unsecured creditors is Burnden Leisure (not strictly true there are a number of related entities). It would help a future purchased potentially - so I could see why it might be better for the Club to go into Admin, I can't see why it helps any of the people who could put us there.

Yes I agree from a purely financial point of view the secured creditors could just realize their collateral, and that is likely to be better for them than admin. Surely though Michael James, Trustees of ED and Brett Warburton all have some desire for the well being of BWFC, and hence would want an outcome that ensures the future of BWFC?

Funding admin would definitely be an issue. The only person who I could see funding it would be Michael James. Given he joined with the Basran group, admin would be a way of getting them back in the mix also, particularly if it was felt the mystery party aren't going to do a deal.

Having got out of owning a football club, I don't see Moonshift wanting to take one back on without ED at the helm. Warburton would have to put shedloads in to cover a £2.5m debt that is probably already covered (not worth it imo). James is a slightly more interesting one, but as BWFCi says the cost of doing Admin compared to £5.5m secured against the shares of the hotel don't seem like it adds up to me...We didn't have James initially down as the money man behind Basran - sort of felt like his addition was later (which feels like it was a deal around his existing debt with another significant Basran backer, rather than James taking the lead)...

I don't really see anyone acting in the 29th March timeframe...but hell, been wrong before....

It's all a bit of speculation, so who knows?

[bristol_Wanderer3]

Having got out of owning a football club, I don't see Moonshift wanting to take one back on without ED at the helm. Warburton would have to put shedloads in to cover a £2.5m debt that is probably already covered (not worth it imo). James is a slightly more interesting one, but as BWFCi says the cost of doing Admin compared to £5.5m secured against the shares of the hotel don't seem like it adds up to me...We didn't have James initially down as the money man behind Basran - sort of felt like his addition was later (which feels like it was a deal around his existing debt with another significant Basran backer, rather than James taking the lead)...

I don't really see anyone acting in the 29th March timeframe...but hell, been wrong before....

It's all a bit of speculation, so who knows?

Yes I think James joined the Basran group more to make the price more affordable to them rather than being in anyway financial muscle for them.

If Iles tweet is accurate it looks like it needs Ken to agree to it before the 29th so that would defeat one of the main objectives i.e. taking it out of his hands. Doing it after and incurring -12 for next season would make it more likely we suffer two seasons minimum in L1 with the chance of a prolonged stay given how much a higher level the three relegated teams from the Championship are usually at. Admin would surely be a desperate rescue option if KA is heading towards the cliff edge.

It is looking pretty desperate again. Ken's notes yesterday and the general lack of any indications of positive news, indeed the lack of any idea of the identity of the mystery party, plus Ken's history of deal making here, don't bode well for a deal being made. It is unlikely the courts will show us much leniency on the 3rd. And admin, at least after the 28th, looks a desperate option.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Having got out of owning a football club, I don't see Moonshift wanting to take one back on without ED at the helm. Warburton would have to put shedloads in to cover a £2.5m debt that is probably already covered (not worth it imo). James is a slightly more interesting one, but as BWFCi says the cost of doing Admin compared to £5.5m secured against the shares of the hotel don't seem like it adds up to me...We didn't have James initially down as the money man behind Basran - sort of felt like his addition was later (which feels like it was a deal around his existing debt with another significant Basran backer, rather than James taking the lead)...

I don't really see anyone acting in the 29th March timeframe...but hell, been wrong before....

It's all a bit of speculation, so who knows?

Yes I think James joined the Basran group more to make the price more affordable to them rather than being in anyway financial muscle for them.

If Iles tweet is accurate it looks like it needs Ken to agree to it before the 29th so that would defeat one of the main objectives i.e. taking it out of his hands. Doing it after and incurring -12 for next season would make it more likely we suffer two seasons minimum in L1 with the chance of a prolonged stay given how much a higher level the three relegated teams from the Championship are usually at. Admin would surely be a desperate rescue option if KA is heading towards the cliff edge.

It is looking pretty desperate again. Ken's notes yesterday and the general lack of any indications of positive news, indeed the lack of any idea of the identity of the mystery party, plus Ken's history of deal making here, don't bode well for a deal being made. It is unlikely the courts will show us much leniency on the 3rd. And admin, at least after the 28th, looks a desperate option.

The court will do exactly the same as it did last time. The time of danger will be when the EFL have no more skin in the game, i.e. after the season has ended.
If there is no buyer by then (which I think likely) it's a tossup as to whether we get liquified or Ken still keeps managing to keep us going on the basis in his own mind he has a pay day due sometime in the future.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Also. Is Ken 'saving money' by delaying taking the ST payments. There is a bank charge on the card use. Has he calculated that by delaying paying the charge from the start to the end of the month he has by some very inventive method actually saved himself some dosh....?