We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

[Bijou Bob]

Remaining fixtures as it stands this morning:

Bolton: Millwall (H), Barnsley (A), Wolves (H), Burton (A), Forest (H)

Barnsley: Ipswich (A), Bolton (H), Leeds (A), Forest (A), Brentford (H), Derby (A)

Burton: Hull (H), Derby (H), Sunderland (A), Bolton (H), Preston (A)

Brum: Bristol (A), Wolves (A), Sheff Utd (H), QPR (A), Fulham (H)

Sunderland: Norwich (H), Reading (A), Burton (H), Fulham (A), Wolves (H)

Looking at the above, Brum seem to have the worst run in by a long chalk, followed by Sunderland. Given the gap, I reckon 5 points keeps us safe. I can only see 3 draws for us out of the above though. I reckon it's going down to the last day and of us, Burton, Barnsley and Brum we have on paper, the easiest tie on the last day, particularly as I suspect Forest will have nothing to play for on the day.

Thoughts?

[BWFC_Insane]

Remaining fixtures as it stands this morning:

Bolton: Millwall (H), Barnsley (A), Wolves (H), Burton (A), Forest (H)

Barnsley: Ipswich (A), Bolton (H), Leeds (A), Forest (A), Brentford (H), Derby (A)

Burton: Hull (H), Derby (H), Sunderland (A), Bolton (H), Preston (A)

Brum: Bristol (A), Wolves (A), Sheff Utd (H), QPR (A), Fulham (H)

Sunderland: Norwich (H), Reading (A), Burton (H), Fulham (A), Wolves (H)

Looking at the above, Brum seem to have the worst run in by a long chalk, followed by Sunderland. Given the gap, I reckon 5 points keeps us safe. I can only see 3 draws for us out of the above though. I reckon it's going down to the last day and of us, Burton, Barnsley and Brum we have on paper, the easiest tie on the last day, particularly as I suspect Forest will have nothing to play for on the day.

Thoughts?

Without predicting our results I think....

Barnsley will get two wins and a draw out of that lot...possibly even 3 wins and a draw....can see them winning tonight, at Forest and home to Brentford...

Burton will get probably 4/5 points.

Brum will get a win in one of their home games and a point at QPR possibly something at Bristol 5/6 points

Sunderland will beat Norwich and Reading or Burton - 6 points

I think we can discount Sunderland/Burton barring something miraculous. If either end up above us we're down regardless.

It leaves Barnsley on something like 44-46 points.
Birmingham on 45-46 points.

For me the target is 46 points - which will probably do it. 47 to be sure. Two wins and a draw more than likely does it. Of course it changes if Barnsley get anything tonight then beat us - the target might go higher if Brum do something unexpected.

I struggle to see us getting two wins and a draw. Really does start to look like that if we lose tonight it could be all over very quickly.

[Prufrock]

So to be clear: on the basis of your predictions that everything is going to wrong immediately, you think things could start to go wrong quickly?

Huge, if true.

Tonight is big. Think we need 5 points out of this, Barnsley and Burton, and cannot lose to Barnsley (or else probably need more).

DSB or anyone got any idea on the away form of the bottom teams playing each other? Feels like our home form at least had been dreadful against those around. Think we're more suited to bring able to go to Barnsley and Burton who need the wins without all the emphasis being on us.

Could be wishful thinking though. Still think we'll be reet but it's a lot less easy than it was.

[BWFC_Insane]

So to be clear: on the basis of your predictions that everything is going to wrong immediately, you think things could start to go wrong quickly?

Huge, if true.

Tonight is big. Think we need 5 points out of this, Barnsley and Burton, and cannot lose to Barnsley (or else probably need more).

DSB or anyone got any idea on the away form of the bottom teams playing each other? Feels like our home form at least had been dreadful against those around. Think we're more suited to bring able to go to Barnsley and Burton who need the wins without all the emphasis being on us.

Could be wishful thinking though. Still think we'll be reet but it's a lot less easy than it was.

I think we'll win tonight....if we don't though I struggle to see us getting the points required from the remaining games.

[Bijou Bob]

Personally I have to say Pru that having set out the matches above, I'm a little bit more confident than I was, given the run ins that the other teams have. The bottom line is that it's in our hands, but I have the feeling that rather than us winning a Championship place, 3 others will lose one.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

A quick word on non-simultaneous games, which can affect teams for good and bad: if you play later, you know what you have to do, but there’s more pressure on.

For instance, Birmingham play at Wolves Sunday 3pm, a full day after Barnsley-Bolton. You have to imagine that will affect the league table somewhat.

Barnsley’s game in hand (at Forest, who we also have to face) is played when everyone else has two games left.

It’s also quite possible that Sky will move more games. This Saturday they’ve got Blades-Millwall at lunchtime and Fulham-Brentford teatime, but on Sat 21st they’ve got no early Champo game, with Cardiff-Forest at the slightly ludicrous 7.45pm slot; I can imagine they might push Bolton-Wolves back to 5.30 (promotion? title?), or possibly Birmingham-Blades (drop-dodgers v play-off hopefuls?)

Sat 28th is the last date they can change KO times. Boro-Millwall is at 5.30pm but they might also fancy Burton-Bolton or Hull-Cardiff (promotion? echoes of May 2013?).

Pru - I'll check the form of the bottom six-or-so vs each other. Spoiler alert: we haven't beaten any of them away.

[BWFC_Insane]

A quick word on non-simultaneous games, which can affect teams for good and bad: if you play later, you know what you have to do, but there’s more pressure on.

For instance, Birmingham play at Wolves Sunday 3pm, a full day after Barnsley-Bolton. You have to imagine that will affect the league table somewhat.

Barnsley’s game in hand (at Forest, who we also have to face) is played when everyone else has two games left.

It’s also quite possible that Sky will move more games. This Saturday they’ve got Blades-Millwall at lunchtime and Fulham-Brentford teatime, but on Sat 21st they’ve got no early Champo game, with Cardiff-Forest at the slightly ludicrous 7.45pm slot; I can imagine they might push Bolton-Wolves back to 5.30 (promotion? title?), or possibly Birmingham-Blades (drop-dodgers v play-off hopefuls?)

Sat 28th is the last date they can change KO times. Boro-Millwall is at 5.30pm but they might also fancy Burton-Bolton or Hull-Cardiff (promotion? echoes of May 2013?).

Pru - I'll check the form of the bottom six-or-so vs each other. Spoiler alert: we haven't beaten any of them away.

Also worth mentioning that derby games are less predictable generally, Wolves should beat Brum but anything can happen in those games...as we saw with Sheff Utd on Saturday!

[Prufrock]

A quick word on non-simultaneous games, which can affect teams for good and bad: if you play later, you know what you have to do, but there’s more pressure on.

For instance, Birmingham play at Wolves Sunday 3pm, a full day after Barnsley-Bolton. You have to imagine that will affect the league table somewhat.

Barnsley’s game in hand (at Forest, who we also have to face) is played when everyone else has two games left.

It’s also quite possible that Sky will move more games. This Saturday they’ve got Blades-Millwall at lunchtime and Fulham-Brentford teatime, but on Sat 21st they’ve got no early Champo game, with Cardiff-Forest at the slightly ludicrous 7.45pm slot; I can imagine they might push Bolton-Wolves back to 5.30 (promotion? title?), or possibly Birmingham-Blades (drop-dodgers v play-off hopefuls?)

Sat 28th is the last date they can change KO times. Boro-Millwall is at 5.30pm but they might also fancy Burton-Bolton or Hull-Cardiff (promotion? echoes of May 2013?).

Pru - I'll check the form of the bottom six-or-so vs each other. Spoiler alert: we haven't beaten any of them away.

Ha, just lolled at that!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

DSB or anyone got any idea on the away form of the bottom teams playing each other? Feels like our home form at least had been dreadful against those around. Think we're more suited to bring able to go to Barnsley and Burton who need the wins without all the emphasis being on us.

Qualitatively, I agree with you. But, y'know, stats...

Here's the results of each bottom-six team, in league-table descending order from Reading to Burton, against each other.

Bottomsix.png (119.9 KiB) Viewed 2582 times

The bad news is that Barnsley are the best in this mini-league, with five wins from nine games played - five from seven if you ignore Reading, late gatecrashers to this emo party. They were also a bit unlucky to lose to Burton (last-minute winner, 20 shots to 3 with an xG of 1.5 v 0.4). The good news is that they lost to us by two clear goals, albeit again somewhat unluckily (16 shots to our 9, xG of 2.5 to our 1.5).

The other good news is that we're yet to lose away to a bottom-six rival. The question is whether not losing will be enough. Tonight might help decide that.

Team Pl W D L Pt
BARN 09 5 1 3 16
READ 09 4 3 2 15
BURT 08 4 1 3 13
BRUM 10 3 3 4 12
BOLT 08 2 4 2 10
SUND 08 1 2 5 05

[Prufrock]

Cheers. Think that backs up what I was saying which is that in a grinding game between two poor teams, home "advantage" and the onus to try to be creative might be a disadvantage.

In that mini league, the away teams have 43 points from 26 games, whereas the home teams in the same 26 games only have 28 points. That's a hell of a difference.

In fact we're the only team in that mini league who don't have more points away than at home against the others (though Barnsley and Sunderland could end up with more home points).

Our away form has been shite for three years now, but part of that (relatively) this year may be because we haven't played Burton or Barnsley. We could easily have won the games away at Reading and Sunderland too.

Enough there to be hopeful we can get what we need in those two games.

[BWFC_Insane]

Cheers. Think that backs up what I was saying which is that in a grinding game between two poor teams, home "advantage" and the onus to try to be creative might be a disadvantage.

In that mini league, the away teams have 43 points from 26 games, whereas the home teams in the same 26 games only have 28 points. That's a hell of a difference.

In fact we're the only team in that mini league who don't have more points away than at home against the others (though Barnsley and Sunderland could end up with more home points).

Our away form has been shite for three years now, but part of that (relatively) this year may be because we haven't played Burton or Barnsley. We could easily have won the games away at Reading and Sunderland too.

Enough there to be hopeful we can get what we need in those two games.

Think that's true. Our issue is finding a way to get pace in the side to exploit the gaps away from home.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Cheers. Think that backs up what I was saying which is that in a grinding game between two poor teams, home "advantage" and the onus to try to be creative might be a disadvantage.

In that mini league, the away teams have 43 points from 26 games, whereas the home teams in the same 26 games only have 28 points. That's a hell of a difference.

In fact we're the only team in that mini league who don't have more points away than at home against the others (though Barnsley and Sunderland could end up with more home points).

Our away form has been shite for three years now, but part of that (relatively) this year may be because we haven't played Burton or Barnsley. We could easily have won the games away at Reading and Sunderland too.

Enough there to be hopeful we can get what we need in those two games.

Not many teams would have sat as deep as Burton did at our place. And at Barnsley. Worked twice for them but equally, it must have worked against them at home, where they've won 11 points – the same number we've collected away, albeit we've played a game more (away to their home).

There are only three teams in this division who've got more points away than at home: Burton (11v21), Sunderland (12v20) and Preston (28v32). For the record, we're 28v11 – only QPR (35v15) have a higher home-biased PPG differential – and Millwall are 40v25: only three teams have more home points than Millwall, 10 teams have more away points.

Barnsley are 20v17, Reading 22v20, Birmingham 27v13.

http://www.soccerstats.com/homeaway.asp?league=england2

[Bijou Bob]

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/ ... y-14506489

The Birmingham press reckon a super computer has predicted they will get relegated and we survive on 43 points. That's alright then!

[Prufrock]

Yeah, being shit is generally a bad thing away from home. A team like Derby with competent footballers invited on to the front foot in a familiar environment are going to cause is harm.

Barnsley, in a huge game, onus on them to attack, playing against a team who are willing to let them come onto them more than most. Think there's a decent chance they will struggle at home against us in the same way we did against Burton or Brum.

Oddly, I think it suits us more for Burton to have something to play for than not when we play them, for the same reasons.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Oddly, I think it suits us more for Burton to have something to play for than not when we play them, for the same reasons.

It's possible, given how KWAZEE the season has been.

However, while we're on the subject, I'm never fully sold on the idea that teams with nothing to play for – having been relegated – suddenly throw off the shackles and play brilliantly. If you're down there, it's generally because you're a bit plap; having nothing to fight for can only make you less likely to do the hard stuff, the constant doggies, the throwing yourself in the path of the ball.

Not that that's what you're saying, but I just thought I'd mention it.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Oddly, I think it suits us more for Burton to have something to play for than not when we play them, for the same reasons.

It's possible, given how KWAZEE the season has been.

However, while we're on the subject, I'm never fully sold on the idea that teams with nothing to play for – having been relegated – suddenly throw off the shackles and play brilliantly. If you're down there, it's generally because you're a bit plap; having nothing to fight for can only make you less likely to do the hard stuff, the constant doggies, the throwing yourself in the path of the ball.

Not that that's what you're saying, but I just thought I'd mention it.

...and on a similar theme, I think it's silly to presume that Forest will just 'turn up with nothing to play for on the day'.

[Harry Genshaw]

Despite their upturn in form I don't see Barnsley winning any of their away games. If we can avoid defeat at theirs and get something tonight, I think we'll be safe

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Tonight's relevant games, for the record; all 7.45 KO except ours (8pm).

Bristol City-Birmingham
Burton-Hull
Fulham-Reading
Ipswich-Barnsley
Sunderland-Norwich
Bolton-Millwall

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Birmingham are unchanged. Barnsley have a few missing: Dani Pinillos, Matt Mills, Joe Williams, Mamadou Thiam - and George Moncur was sent home ill.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

The only saving grace about last night was that everybody else lost too (well, bar Sunderland drawing).

Birmingham had their bubble burst by a 3-1 loss at Bristol City in which they put up a good fight, outshooting the Robins 18 to 10 (7 to 4 on target). Their next game is at Wolves on Sunday lunchtime; let's hope to God that they're below us by then.

Barnsley also suffered a kick in the swingers by losing at Ipswich – after hitting the bar and having a goal disallowed; they also had one cleared off the line late on. They had 19 goes at goal (to Ipswich's 16) but just 2 on target, so let's hope they're as wasteful on Saturday, because I can't imagine us taking the game to them – especially if we do manage to grab a goal from somewhere.

The next nearest team are Reading, somehow quietly flying just above the shitstorm. They lost again, 1-0 at Fulham, and again their stats were awful: 35% possession, 3 attempts on goal, zero on target. Across Paul Clement's four games in charge they've had two attempts on target (to their opponents' 19), just 17 attempts in total (vs 86). On Saturday they host Sunderland, which isn't exactly the card we'd pick for them, but if (if, if) Sunderland get a goal, I wonder how the team and fans would react. That, my friends, is a f*ckin' grasping-straw right there - but with Reading also yet to face Sheffield Wednesday, Ipswich and Cardiff, it's worth keeping an eye on them.

Sunderland themselves drew at home to Norwich thanks to an 89th-minute equaliser. They're six points behind us but I hope they win at Reading. They had 25 attempts on goal (to Norwich's 18) and are actually on just about their best form of the season - won at Derby, lost at home to Wednesday, drew at Leeds (again after being in front) and now drew with Norwich. It's only the second time since August that they've got five points from a four-game spell.

Burton got f*cked 5-0 at home by a very efficient Hull (they had six shots on target). The only thing keeping them up now is the uselessness of the teams above the dots.

Screen Shot 2018-04-11 at 08.49.59.png (23.07 KiB) Viewed 2777 times

Sat 3pm unless stated:
Barnsley-Bolton
Burton-Derby
Reading-Sunderland
Wolves-Birmingham (Sun 1200)