Snog, Marry, Avoid: Summer 2023 Transfer Window

[The_Gun]

Dion's not much of a facilitator, is he? Perhaps points to the kind of player we should be looking to pair with him.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Dion's not much of a facilitator, is he? Perhaps points to the kind of player we should be looking to pair with him.

You don't tend to create many chanes when you only pass every nine minutes...

Vic's so far above his xG that you worry it might have been a freak season. Then again, so is Stockton - actually by a bigger factor, scoring almost twice as often as xG suggested he should.

The danger with overperforming is reversion to the mean...

[BWFC_Insane]

Dion's not much of a facilitator, is he? Perhaps points to the kind of player we should be looking to pair with him.

You don't tend to create many chanes when you only pass every nine minutes...

Vic's so far above his xG that you worry it might have been a freak season. Then again, so is Stockton - actually by a bigger factor, scoring almost twice as often as xG suggested he should.

The danger with overperforming is reversion to the mean...

Which is why comparing goals per game across their records at this level is instructive…

[boltonboris]

Stockton this time last year, yes. Not now. With Bodvarsson fit and apparently signing a new deal, I'm not sure striker is a priority position, unless someone comes available who is an upgrade. Stockton certainly isn't now.

Not mad on Adeboyejo but he's good back-up as is Jerome if injury / fatigue sets in

[Worthy4England]

Stockton this time last year, yes. Not now. With Bodvarsson fit and apparently signing a new deal, I'm not sure striker is a priority position, unless someone comes available who is an upgrade. Stockton certainly isn't now.

Not mad on Adeboyejo but he's good back-up as is Jerome if injury / fatigue sets in

That's where I'm at - the question that keeps getting asked, is who can hold it up and do something different than Dion, has/had maybe a Champo pedigree? If that's not Bod, I'd wonder why we'd re-sign him, like you, unless there was someone who very obviously looked like an upgrade, but the I'd still wonder why we re-signed Bod

[BWFC_Insane]

Stockton this time last year, yes. Not now. With Bodvarsson fit and apparently signing a new deal, I'm not sure striker is a priority position, unless someone comes available who is an upgrade. Stockton certainly isn't now.

Not mad on Adeboyejo but he's good back-up as is Jerome if injury / fatigue sets in

That's where I'm at - the question that keeps getting asked, is who can hold it up and do something different than Dion, has/had maybe a Champo pedigree? If that's not Bod, I'd wonder why we'd re-sign him, like you, unless there was someone who very obviously looked like an upgrade, but the I'd still wonder why we re-signed Bod

For me it’s more who can hold it, pass it quickly, work in tight spaces, beat a man and smash it into the bottom corner with regularity.

[Worthy4England]

Stockton this time last year, yes. Not now. With Bodvarsson fit and apparently signing a new deal, I'm not sure striker is a priority position, unless someone comes available who is an upgrade. Stockton certainly isn't now.

Not mad on Adeboyejo but he's good back-up as is Jerome if injury / fatigue sets in

That's where I'm at - the question that keeps getting asked, is who can hold it up and do something different than Dion, has/had maybe a Champo pedigree? If that's not Bod, I'd wonder why we'd re-sign him, like you, unless there was someone who very obviously looked like an upgrade, but the I'd still wonder why we re-signed Bod

For me it’s more who can hold it, pass it quickly, work in tight spaces, beat a man and smash it into the bottom corner with regularity.

Yeah - fine with all that - but if that's not "Bod" why re-sign him?

[GhostoftheBok]

We can argue about details, but what the numbers show is that (assuming Bod renews) we have 3 very good strikers for this level.

When you compare non-pk XG overperformance they're all above that magic 1.3 that you look for at any level.

The fact Stockton is on a free and Evatt likes him might make us head that way, but there are clearly options in the market. I don't think Sam Smith should be one, regardless of age; but Markham et al might have things tuned differently.

Whoever we get in will need to be very, very good to improve the 11.

Likewise, whoever we get in we need to radically improve the service they are offered.

[BWFC_Insane]

Stockton this time last year, yes. Not now. With Bodvarsson fit and apparently signing a new deal, I'm not sure striker is a priority position, unless someone comes available who is an upgrade. Stockton certainly isn't now.

Not mad on Adeboyejo but he's good back-up as is Jerome if injury / fatigue sets in

That's where I'm at - the question that keeps getting asked, is who can hold it up and do something different than Dion, has/had maybe a Champo pedigree? If that's not Bod, I'd wonder why we'd re-sign him, like you, unless there was someone who very obviously looked like an upgrade, but the I'd still wonder why we re-signed Bod

For me it’s more who can hold it, pass it quickly, work in tight spaces, beat a man and smash it into the bottom corner with regularity.

Yeah - fine with all that - but if that's not "Bod" why re-sign him?

I don’t think that’s necessarily anyone we’ve got on the books and might be an impossible ask.

But imagine a scenario where we’ve isolated our striker one on one against a defender just outside their box. How many of ours are you confident in that resulting in a shot on target requiring a save? Or a goal?

For me that’s the situation we create a decent amount of those what I call ‘half chances’ and I’m not convinced any of our strikers thrive there. Charles is the best followed I think by Bod.

But none are particularly good at that. None of them can shift and hit it quickly, nor put the defender on their arse and finish first time. It’s an area I think when people say ‘but we don’t create clear chances’ miss. It’s those edge of the box positions we don’t score nearly enough from.

Stockton possibly would do. May possibly would too.

My issue with May is he’s played well in a sit back and break Cheltenham side so exploits space ahead well. I’ve seen him do that brilliantly. I’m not so convinced he’s as good when there is no space against a low block.

Stockton I think could be but remains to be seen.

[GhostoftheBok]

You don't tend to create many chanes when you only pass every nine minutes...

Vic's so far above his xG that you worry it might have been a freak season. Then again, so is Stockton - actually by a bigger factor, scoring almost twice as often as xG suggested he should.

The danger with overperforming is reversion to the mean...

Vic also overperformed his XG heavily as a winger in the Championship. That's why Burton's analysts picked him up a striker. We didn't pick him up based just on 6 months, his finishing is just very good.

I'm not sure which data firm Worthy is using, but my numbers are slightly different. When you adjust for non-pk XG I have Ade as above Stockton in terms of XG to goals.

Worthy's numbers put Ade at 1.58 (with pens fixed at 0.76) and Stockton at 1.8. Regardless of his or my numbers they're both well above the "good striker" 1.3 guideline number.

The fact Stockton is still above 1.3 in a "bad" season should probably tell us that his 20+ goal season wasn't a fluke.

[BWFC_Insane]

You don't tend to create many chanes when you only pass every nine minutes...

Vic's so far above his xG that you worry it might have been a freak season. Then again, so is Stockton - actually by a bigger factor, scoring almost twice as often as xG suggested he should.

The danger with overperforming is reversion to the mean...

Vic also overperformed his XG heavily as a winger in the Championship. That's why Burton's analysts picked him up a striker. We didn't pick him up based just on 6 months, his finishing is just very good.

I'm not sure which data firm Worthy is using, but my numbers are slightly different. When you adjust for non-pk XG I have Ade as above Stockton in terms of XG to goals.

Worthy's numbers put Ade at 1.58 (with pens fixed at 0.76) and Stockton at 1.8. Regardless of his or my numbers they're both well above the "good striker" 1.3 guideline number.

The fact Stockton is still above 1.3 in a "bad" season should probably tell us that his 20+ goal season wasn't a fluke.

All this xG nonsense - if you are saying that 5 goals in 58 championship games is evidence of something then we can sign a load of players who will rarely score goals.

Adeboyejo has hit double figures in precisely one season in his career. Maybe he’s about to explode.

But the issue I have with this idea that it’s all about chance creation and putting it onto a plate for our strikers is counter the evidence we’ve seen historically down the years as follower of football.

We scored more goals when we had Super John and Andy Walker than with strikers before them. We scored more goals with Anelka. Better strikers score you more goals.

And they do so not simply through a function of ‘being the last kick of a brilliant move’ their movement, presence and pace gets them chances.

[GhostoftheBok]

All this xG nonsense - if you are saying that 5 goals in 58 championship games is evidence of something then we can sign a load of players who will rarely score goals.

Adeboyejo has hit double figures in precisely one season in his career. Maybe he’s about to explode.

Burton have data-driven recruitment. They fully modernised their recruitment model under Matt Ash several years ago.

Like it or not, that "nonsense" data stuff is how Burton identified an underrated player, got a song out of him and flipped him for £600k in 6 months.

[BWFC_Insane]

All this xG nonsense - if you are saying that 5 goals in 58 championship games is evidence of something then we can sign a load of players who will rarely score goals.

Adeboyejo has hit double figures in precisely one season in his career. Maybe he’s about to explode.

Burton have data-driven recruitment. They fully modernised their recruitment model under Matt Ash several years ago.

Like it or not, that "nonsense" data stuff is how Burton identified an underrated player, got a song out of him and flipped him for £600k in 6 months.

I’ve watched Burton. Whatever they are doing - I’m far from convinced by it.

We once managed to sell Madine for £6M. Purple patches happen. Decent players have periods where they look great. Maybe it’s the ‘data’ that will unlock Adeboyejo from being a ‘barely troubling the scorers’ type or maybe it won’t.

But the bottom line for me is good strikers make you look a better side, and thus far he hasn’t.

[GhostoftheBok]

Burton have been consistently punching above their weight for a decade. I'm not sure what you're expecting from a club their size, but if you're not convinced by them I'd say the issue is yours and not theirs.

They operate on half our wage budget with crowds of 3.5k and they survived a season in the Championship. They do exceptional work.

[Worthy4England]

Stockton this time last year, yes. Not now. With Bodvarsson fit and apparently signing a new deal, I'm not sure striker is a priority position, unless someone comes available who is an upgrade. Stockton certainly isn't now.

Not mad on Adeboyejo but he's good back-up as is Jerome if injury / fatigue sets in

That's where I'm at - the question that keeps getting asked, is who can hold it up and do something different than Dion, has/had maybe a Champo pedigree? If that's not Bod, I'd wonder why we'd re-sign him, like you, unless there was someone who very obviously looked like an upgrade, but the I'd still wonder why we re-signed Bod

For me it’s more who can hold it, pass it quickly, work in tight spaces, beat a man and smash it into the bottom corner with regularity.

Yeah - fine with all that - but if that's not "Bod" why re-sign him?

I don’t think that’s necessarily anyone we’ve got on the books and might be an impossible ask.

But imagine a scenario where we’ve isolated our striker one on one against a defender just outside their box. How many of ours are you confident in that resulting in a shot on target requiring a save? Or a goal?

For me that’s the situation we create a decent amount of those what I call ‘half chances’ and I’m not convinced any of our strikers thrive there. Charles is the best followed I think by Bod.

But none are particularly good at that. None of them can shift and hit it quickly, nor put the defender on their arse and finish first time. It’s an area I think when people say ‘but we don’t create clear chances’ miss. It’s those edge of the box positions we don’t score nearly enough from.

Stockton possibly would do. May possibly would too.

My issue with May is he’s played well in a sit back and break Cheltenham side so exploits space ahead well. I’ve seen him do that brilliantly. I’m not so convinced he’s as good when there is no space against a low block.

Stockton I think could be but remains to be seen.

What I'd say is, whatever stats we might have access to and conjour, I'm fairly sure the guys in the analysis roles have more and better. So I do have some faith that if there's a lot of those half chances, they'll be working a "plan." But there's more than one way to skin that rabbit, only one of which is "buy someone" who can put the defender on their ass and get the shot off.

[BWFC_Insane]

Burton have been consistently punching above their weight for a decade. I'm not sure what you're expecting from a club their size, but if you're not convinced by them I'd say the issue is yours and not theirs.

They operate on half our wage budget with crowds of 3.5k and they survived a season in the Championship. They do exceptional work.

Brentford are a miracle. Bournemouth are a miracle. But I’m still far from convinced that data tells the story in the way you think it does. I think it’s a useful tool. I genuinely believe it has a place.

But the biggest piece of data to compare two strikers is simply goals per game. We can dig into xG and that stuff. But ultimately what happens is scoring goals. Good strikers will score goals consistently no matter who they play for. Stockton has a better goals record than Vic at this level and that’s raw and critical data. I don’t think we will sign Stockton but I’m still not convinced by the argument that he’s about to explode and the data shows it. Just not convinced. I guess we will find out.

[Worthy4England]

Burton have been consistently punching above their weight for a decade. I'm not sure what you're expecting from a club their size, but if you're not convinced by them I'd say the issue is yours and not theirs.

They operate on half our wage budget with crowds of 3.5k and they survived a season in the Championship. They do exceptional work.

Brentford are a miracle. Bournemouth are a miracle. But I’m still far from convinced that data tells the story in the way you think it does. I think it’s a useful tool. I genuinely believe it has a place.

But the biggest piece of data to compare two strikers is simply goals per game. We can dig into xG and that stuff. But ultimately what happens is scoring goals. Good strikers will score goals consistently no matter who they play for. Stockton has a better goals record than Vic at this level and that’s raw and critical data. I don’t think we will sign Stockton but I’m still not convinced by the argument that he’s about to explode and the data shows it. Just not convinced. I guess we will find out.

But, how do you account for this season v last? Has he gone off the boil? What about the two seasons prior, in L2. Decent, not stellar...Stockton wasn't consistent prior to two seasons back. He didn't get too many at all. Reality is he's had one stand out L1, season, the two either side he's been much more "average:

Like you, I'm still a long way from convinced by Vic, though...

[BWFC_Insane]

Burton have been consistently punching above their weight for a decade. I'm not sure what you're expecting from a club their size, but if you're not convinced by them I'd say the issue is yours and not theirs.

They operate on half our wage budget with crowds of 3.5k and they survived a season in the Championship. They do exceptional work.

Brentford are a miracle. Bournemouth are a miracle. But I’m still far from convinced that data tells the story in the way you think it does. I think it’s a useful tool. I genuinely believe it has a place.

But the biggest piece of data to compare two strikers is simply goals per game. We can dig into xG and that stuff. But ultimately what happens is scoring goals. Good strikers will score goals consistently no matter who they play for. Stockton has a better goals record than Vic at this level and that’s raw and critical data. I don’t think we will sign Stockton but I’m still not convinced by the argument that he’s about to explode and the data shows it. Just not convinced. I guess we will find out.

But, how do you account for this season v last? Has he gone off the boil? What about the two seasons prior, in L2. Decent, not stellar...Stockton wasn't consistent prior to two seasons back. He didn't get too many at all. Reality is he's had one stand out L1, season, the two either side he's been much more "average:

Like you, I'm still a long way from convinced by Vic, though...

I’m far from cheerleading for us to sign Stockton - I don’t think we will and I think firmly we can sign better.

But he has over statistically relevant samples a significantly better goal record than Vic at this level. That could change and maybe it will…

The thing I’d say about Stockton is look at the range he scores…he adds types of goals we do not score…

[Prufrock]

But I mean obviously the same striker scores more goals in a good team than a bad. That's what the xG is trying to get at.

It's obviously crude but, sceptic that I am, I'm more convinced by it that the obviously reductive goals per game.

[BWFC_Insane]

But I mean obviously the same striker scores more goals in a good team than a bad. That's what the xG is trying to get at.

It's obviously crude but, sceptic that I am, I'm more convinced by it that the obviously reductive goals per game.

Are you saying Adeboyejo has played in worse teams than Stockton?