Iron versus Wheaterbix. Scunthorpe away, Sat 8th April.

[BWFC_Insane]

DSB seems to have forgotten that Scunthorpe can still reach 82 points!

Erm:

• we lose at Oldham, so we're on 79pts, but Bradford/Fleetwood would have to be on 73-75pts, meaning they got one, two or three points from their two games (LD, DL, DD, LW or WL). This might also bring Scunthorpe, who are two points further back, into play

There is a chance Scunthorpe can reach 82 points, yes. And there's a chance we can reach that on Saturday.

Yep. Though you did write the following, referencing Bradford and Fleetwood. And of course to be mathematically promoted on Saturday we'd also need Scunny not to win.

So if they both lose on Good Friday, a win at Oldham will be enough to make us mathematically promoted, on 82 points

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

A bit more, as BWFCi raised the issue of Scunny:

Points-wise, there are 3 possible outcomes per match: WDL. One match has 3 outcomes, 2 matches have 9 outcomes, 3 matches have 27 outcomes, 4 matches have 81 outcomes.

In order to finish above us Scunthorpe need to reach 79, 80, 81 or 82 points, which means they need 9, 10, 11 or 12 points. They can get 12pts via 1 outcome: WWWW. They can’t get 11pts via any outcome. They can get 10pts via 4 outcomes: WWWD, WWDW, WDWW, DWWW. They can get 9pts via 4 outcomes: WWWL, WWLW, WLWW, LWWW.

That gives Scunthorpe a total of 9 outcomes out of a possible 81 (9/81=11.1%) in which they can catch our current total... and that’s completely ignoring the cold hard fact that we also have 12 points to play for.

Indeed, in order to finish above Scunthorpe, we only need 4 points (79+4=83, bigger than their maximum of 82). By my reckoning, which I won’t go into here out of sheer boredom (I suffered it so you didn’t have to), there are only 19 of the 81 outcomes in which we can get 3pts or fewer, meaning that just in our matches there’s a 62/81=76.5% chance of us getting the required points to finish above Scunthorpe.

As you ask: we need 6pts to mathematically guarantee promotion. Of the 81 possible outcomes for our results there are 37/81 (=46%) which would give us that many or more; add in the 12 different ways to get the 5pts which would require Bradford/Fleetwood to win all their games and reel in a large goal differential, and it’s 49/81 (=60%). So that’s a 60% chance of us getting enough points even if one of our rivals wins all their games… which is, by the same mathematical token, a 1/81 (=1.2%) chance.

And of course it isn't "chance", because this isn't a crapshoot. It is a game of skill, and overt the first 42 games of the 46-game season, Bolton have proven themselves one of the division's two best teams by quite some margin. Fleetwood are a point closer to Southend in 7th than to us in 2nd. The only margin bigger than that 7pt gap is the one above us to the deserved champions-elect Sheffield United, who could (depending on Friday/Saturday results) either secure or be presented with the league title in next Monday's home game... against Bradford.

That were fun, weren’t it?

[Worthy4England]

Does that mean we're going up then?

[LeverEnd]

Does that mean we're going up then?

I'm not sure. I'd like to see some in depth statistical analysis before deciding.

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

Does that mean we're going up then?

I'm not sure. I'd like to see some in depth statistical analysis before deciding.

Hoboh is going to lose his mind if we start having facts and experts. Best we stick with talking bollocks

[BWFC_Insane]

All the stats and facts and whatever, are meaningless. We've all seen teams at the bottom suddenly go on a winning run that defies all logic. We've seen teams at the top get right to the finish line, then fall apart and fail to cross it. We've seen teams win their last 4 when previously they were toast.

We're in a fantastic position. No doubt about it. But we still have to get over the line. And there are no guarantees, and likelihoods and odds mean little at the end of the day. A few weeks back, all the stats and odds were in Fleetwood's favour.

As I say, until we are over the line, we're not over it. As boring as I am, and superstitious as I am, there is a genuine case in my view that without too much imagination this could still get edgy yet.

I think both Fleetwood and Bradford have one tough game left each. Should either Fleetwood beat Millwall or Bradford beat Sheff Utd, I think there is a good case they will make 84 points. And should we suffer a defeat at Oldham, which is highly possible it could leave us going into the Bury game just a point clear. And Bury would LOVE to beat us. And will be super motivated for that game. I am not of course saying this is what I expect. I just think it isn't an unreasonable scenario to view. There are many other reasonable scenarios, as well. Just that we should not count anything yet.

[popeyedoyle]

I don't agree that we improved our position on Saturday because Fleetwood lost. We now have 2 teams chasing us and one of them, Bradford are on a hell of a run. The chances are if Fleetwood lose Bradford may win or visa versa in the next round of games, so as always we have to sort our own results first and any results happening in our favour elsewhere are a bonus.

[Beefheart]

Is there a reason we're playing on the Saturday and everyone else on Good Friday?

Are we on the telly?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I don't agree that we improved our position on Saturday because Fleetwood lost.

Before Saturday's fixtures, we were 7pts clear with five games to go. Now we're 7pts clear with four games to go. I'm happy for that to continue. Which, considering Bradford are on the same points-per-game as us over the last 6 and last 10 games, it may very well do. And they've got to play the champions-elect yet.

We've seen teams at the top get right to the finish line, then fall apart and fail to cross it.

Have we seen a team which was 7pts (and 10 goals) above the play-offs with four games left not get promoted? Genuinely, I don't know, but feel free to find an example. If you like, you could compare it to how many times teams with 7pt+ leads didn't slip up.

Yes, it's possible that we could fail. But I suspect you're saying that from emotion rather than intellect, fear rather than analysis.

[BWFC_Insane]

I don't agree that we improved our position on Saturday because Fleetwood lost.

Before Saturday's fixtures, we were 7pts clear with five games to go. Now we're 7pts clear with four games to go. I'm happy for that to continue. Which, considering Bradford are on the same points-per-game as us over the last 6 and last 10 games, it may very well do. And they've got to play the champions-elect yet.

We've seen teams at the top get right to the finish line, then fall apart and fail to cross it.

Have we seen a team which was 7pts (and 10 goals) above the play-offs with four games left not get promoted? Genuinely, I don't know, but feel free to find an example. If you like, you could compare it to how many times teams with 7pt+ leads didn't slip up.

Yes, it's possible that we could fail. But I suspect you're saying that from emotion rather than intellect, fear rather than analysis.

Obviously not directly the same, but weren't Wolves once 12 points clear with 8 or 9 to go? And West Brom (with ginger Mourinho in charge) chased them down and pipped them on the last day?

I know there were more games to go, but I'm sure Wolves fans were saying "we're 4 wins better than the Baggies over the season, no way can they be 4 wins better than us in just 8/9 games".

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I don't agree that we improved our position on Saturday because Fleetwood lost.

Before Saturday's fixtures, we were 7pts clear with five games to go. Now we're 7pts clear with four games to go. I'm happy for that to continue. Which, considering Bradford are on the same points-per-game as us over the last 6 and last 10 games, it may very well do. And they've got to play the champions-elect yet.

We've seen teams at the top get right to the finish line, then fall apart and fail to cross it.

Have we seen a team which was 7pts (and 10 goals) above the play-offs with four games left not get promoted? Genuinely, I don't know, but feel free to find an example. If you like, you could compare it to how many times teams with 7pt+ leads didn't slip up.

Yes, it's possible that we could fail. But I suspect you're saying that from emotion rather than intellect, fear rather than analysis.

Obviously not directly the same, but weren't Wolves once 12 points clear with 8 or 9 to go? And West Brom (with ginger Mourinho in charge) chased them down and pipped them on the last day?

I know there were more games to go, but I'm sure Wolves fans were saying "we're 4 wins better than the Baggies over the season, no way can they be 4 wins better than us in just 8/9 games".

I dunno, were they? Were they 7pts clear with 4 to go? Do your research!

[Gravdigger]

One would hope that SheffU wouldn't roll over for Bradford, being a Yorkshire team and all that.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

One would hope that SheffU wouldn't roll over for Bradford, being a Yorkshire team and all that.

If that's the rationale, it might help that we're playing two Lancastrian teams.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Obviously not directly the same, but weren't Wolves once 12 points clear with 8 or 9 to go? And West Brom (with ginger Mourinho in charge) chased them down and pipped them on the last day?

I dunno, were they? Were they 7pts clear with 4 to go? Do your research!

Did it for you

When West Brom overtook Wolves (2002) they were only 3pts behind by the time there were four games left.

As far as I can see, dating back to the 1981 introduction of 3pts for a win, there have only been four other examples in this division of the last automatic-slot team being seven or more points ahead of the next team with four games to go.

In the 1996 example I dare say you'll cling to, Allardyce's Blackpool, 7pts clear with four games left, were overtaken by Oxford – but the U’s had a game in hand. (He was replaced by Megson.)

In 1998 second-placed Watford were 12pts clear of third; they didn’t finish second… they won the league, with previous leaders Bristol City also going straight up.

In 2005 Hull were 10pts clear; this was shaved to 7pts.

In 2014, Brentford were 7pts clear. By the end of the season they’d extended this to 8pts.

In the other two Football League divisions from which teams get promoted, there have been 10 examples of teams in the final automatic slot being 7pts+ clear of the chasers. In every single season, they went up.

SECOND TIER
2014 Burnley 8pts clear with four games left - 8pts clear at end
2010 WBA 11pts - 12pts
2006 Sheff U 9pts - 9pts
2004 WBA 12pts - 7pts
2003 Leicester 14pts (having played a game more) - 8pts
1997 Barnsley 7pts - 4pts
1988 Portsmouth 9pts - 3pts
1983 Newcastle 7pts - 10pts

FOURTH TIER
2001 Cardiff (5 left) 9pts clear of Hartlepool (4 left), went up 5pts clear
1997 Carlisle 10pts - 12pts

[jetsetwilly]

See Marc Iles reporting that 10 BWFC fans ended up in hospital after being attacked in Scunthorpe on Sat. Saw a bit of trouble at the Berkely pub after the game. About 10 young lads, one of whom threw two punches at a Bolton fan and managed to punch to wall twice badly damaging his hand. Police then arrived and they ran off.

Noticed a fair police presence outside another pub on the walk back to crowd. Anyone else see anything?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Saw a quick set-to on the dual carriageway behind the home end. Some fella ended up with claret pouring from his schnozz. He was maybe in his forties and hadn't seemed to be looking for it, the likely lads were early 20s. Couldn't tell who was purporting to follow which side, for what it matters.

[Harry Genshaw]

Saw a quick set-to on the dual carriageway behind the home end. Some fella ended up with claret pouring from his schnozz. He was maybe in his forties and hadn't seemed to be looking for it, the likely lads were early 20s. Couldn't tell who was purporting to follow which side, for what it matters.

That sounds like a mate of mine. He ended up overnight in hospital and requires reconstructive surgery. Another mate who stayed in the hospital with him said there were quite a few coming in with cuts and bruises.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

My sympathies to him, if it was him - the guy I saw ended up on the actual road then got up and squatted at the side of the road getting help. As I say from what I saw he seemed to get jumped by a few young knobheads, who were soon joined in brief skirmish by a few other young knobheads.

[LeverEnd]

See Marc Iles reporting that 10 BWFC fans ended up in hospital after being attacked in Scunthorpe on Sat. Saw a bit of trouble at the Berkely pub after the game. About 10 young lads, one of whom threw two punches at a Bolton fan and managed to punch to wall twice badly damaging his hand. Police then arrived and they ran off.

Noticed a fair police presence outside another pub on the walk back to crowd. Anyone else see anything?

I was outside the Berkeley for about 40 minutes after the game with HG and BP. We didn't see anything apart from one of our middle aged fans posturing and shouting but the only damage done was to his t-shirt by his Missus dragging him back.

[BWFC_Insane]

Obviously not directly the same, but weren't Wolves once 12 points clear with 8 or 9 to go? And West Brom (with ginger Mourinho in charge) chased them down and pipped them on the last day?

I dunno, were they? Were they 7pts clear with 4 to go? Do your research!

Did it for you

When West Brom overtook Wolves (2002) they were only 3pts behind by the time there were four games left.

As far as I can see, dating back to the 1981 introduction of 3pts for a win, there have only been four other examples in this division of the last automatic-slot team being seven or more points ahead of the next team with four games to go.

In the 1996 example I dare say you'll cling to, Allardyce's Blackpool, 7pts clear with four games left, were overtaken by Oxford – but the U’s had a game in hand. (He was replaced by Megson.)

In 1998 second-placed Watford were 12pts clear of third; they didn’t finish second… they won the league, with previous leaders Bristol City also going straight up.

In 2005 Hull were 10pts clear; this was shaved to 7pts.

In 2014, Brentford were 7pts clear. By the end of the season they’d extended this to 8pts.

In the other two Football League divisions from which teams get promoted, there have been 10 examples of teams in the final automatic slot being 7pts+ clear of the chasers. In every single season, they went up.

SECOND TIER
2014 Burnley 8pts clear with four games left - 8pts clear at end
2010 WBA 11pts - 12pts
2006 Sheff U 9pts - 9pts
2004 WBA 12pts - 7pts
2003 Leicester 14pts (having played a game more) - 8pts
1997 Barnsley 7pts - 4pts
1988 Portsmouth 9pts - 3pts
1983 Newcastle 7pts - 10pts

FOURTH TIER
2001 Cardiff (5 left) 9pts clear of Hartlepool (4 left), went up 5pts clear
1997 Carlisle 10pts - 12pts

Looked on the Bradford forum. Seems many of their fans think they could still catch us.

https://claretandbanter.uk/threads/do-y ... 249/page-5

Not over till its over.