"It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:44 am

CrazyHorse wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:25 am
So statistically there's an 80% chance of not losing? Which actually isn't very tight at all?
Eh? In ten home games we've only once been in a comfortable winning position. And it should be noted we came from behind in that game.

Tight means we are not likely to be 2 or 3 nil up and comfortable based on home games we've seen with these players.

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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:22 am

I put forward two propositions in two different paragraphs.

The first was that it's statistically quite likely that Vale will be relegated and Fleetwood "consigned to the end-of-season lottery".

The second, playfully moving this theme on, posited the notion that if (if) we happen to be winning comfortably, a late Fleetwood goal would be one of those pointless deflating affairs, and using the standard comedy trope of unexpected juxtaposition I was suggesting that the jolly strains of the Captain Pugwash theme might not be met with universal smiles and thumbs aloft.

Personally, although strange things do happen, I think it's quite likely that both we and the Cods will win. (So, I imagine, do the bookies.) I also think it helps our hand that of the four teams involved, only one of them has no real reason to contest the 50/50s and make the 10-yard sprints, and that's our opposition. I might also point out that for much of the past month you were catastrophising about drop-dodgers having "more to play for" than mid-table teams, although I note you've dropped that from your set-list this week... :wink:

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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:41 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:22 am
I put forward two propositions in two different paragraphs.

The first was that it's statistically quite likely that Vale will be relegated and Fleetwood "consigned to the end-of-season lottery".

The second, playfully moving this theme on, posited the notion that if (if) we happen to be winning comfortably, a late Fleetwood goal would be one of those pointless deflating affairs, and using the standard comedy trope of unexpected juxtaposition I was suggesting that the jolly strains of the Captain Pugwash theme might not be met with universal smiles and thumbs aloft.

Personally, although strange things do happen, I think it's quite likely that both we and the Cods will win. (So, I imagine, do the bookies.) I also think it helps our hand that of the four teams involved, only one of them has no real reason to contest the 50/50s and make the 10-yard sprints, and that's our opposition. I might also point out that for much of the past month you were catastrophising about drop-dodgers having "more to play for" than mid-table teams, although I note you've dropped that from your set-list this week... :wink:
Quite the opposite. I'm delighted PV won as I was a bit concerned about an already demoralised and relegated team letting an attacking team like Fleetwood rack up 4 in the first half, making things even edgier at the Macron.

Now PV may offer considerable resistance.

I agree the likelihood is still that Fleetwood win. But the last thing we need is the hint that Fleetwood could come close to overturning the GD gap by thumping PV, and hopefully now that isn't going to happen as one expects that game to be at least competitive.

As it stands I think last night's result has improved our chances a little. Having said that I'm keen for us to do the job ourselves and not worry about others.

The only nagging doubts I have concern our recent (5 season) history in big games with big crowds which has been generally disastrous, and our current home form, which is not good, certainly not comfortably good. We are setup more like an away side through necessity and it is going to be interesting how we tackle this one. I'm not sure we have the ability to "blast Peterborough" aside. Which is, as TD says, ideally what we'd do early on. Therefore, chances are it gets nervy and edgy. And in those environments, anything can happen.

Don't read this as anything other than, we have a fantastic chance and really now should do this....BUT there is still a doubt with this group of players getting over the line. Hopefully that is put to bed Sunday.

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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:19 pm

On the subject of quick starts, etc: we often start quickly. According to soccerstats.com, who helpfully analyse this sort of thing so we don't have to, over the season we’ve scored more goals in the first quarter of an hour than in any other 15-minute chunk (16 in total: more goals than anyone in the division bar Southend). That strong start continues in the 16-30 minute period with another 13, then dips alarmingly before half-time and doesn’t fully recover until the 76-90(+) slice, when we’ve scored 14 (fitness? determination? subs?).

If you drill down to the home-only record, it’s even more pronounced: 10 goals 0-15m, 8 goals 16-30, 1 goal 31-45. We’re one of only six teams to score fewer home goals after the break, and only four of those have also conceded more after the oranges: us, Bury, Cov and Oldham. That said, remember that in many of those games, we may not have been pressing forward manically because we didn’t really *need* to.

What does all that mean? Well, these things are naturally reductive, especially when we’ve had three different formations and something like two different squads. But the good news is that we often do start strongly – in the first half-hour of home games we’ve scored 18 and conceded 3 – so let’s hope that happens again. If it doesn’t, the bad news is that we fans might have to patiently and supportively wait until late in the game for the team to press home our superiority – just as they did at Vale and many other games before.

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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:25 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:19 pm
On the subject of quick starts, etc: we often start quickly. According to soccerstats.com, who helpfully analyse this sort of thing so we don't have to, over the season we’ve scored more goals in the first quarter of an hour than in any other 15-minute chunk (16 in total: more goals than anyone in the division bar Southend). That strong start continues in the 16-30 minute period with another 13, then dips alarmingly before half-time and doesn’t fully recover until the 76-90(+) slice, when we’ve scored 14 (fitness? determination? subs?).

If you drill down to the home-only record, it’s even more pronounced: 10 goals 0-15m, 8 goals 16-30, 1 goal 31-45. We’re one of only six teams to score fewer home goals after the break, and only four of those have also conceded more after the oranges: us, Bury, Cov and Oldham. That said, remember that in many of those games, we may not have been pressing forward manically because we didn’t really *need* to.

What does all that mean? Well, these things are naturally reductive, especially when we’ve had three different formations and something like two different squads. But the good news is that we often do start strongly – in the first half-hour of home games we’ve scored 18 and conceded 3 – so let’s hope that happens again. If it doesn’t, the bad news is that we fans might have to patiently and supportively wait until late in the game for the team to press home our superiority – just as they did at Vale and many other games before.

COYWM.
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Like I say the 10 home games since January with broadly the players we've got now have been quite different to our earlier home games, where often, we did start brightly and get goals.

Whether it is nerves of the run in, or just a different make up in the team, (I suspect a bit of both), we've generally struggled at home this side of Christmas. Our record reflects that. As does the number of goals we've scored.

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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:31 pm

Home league games since Feb 1:

Times: Us-Them

0-15m: 3-1
16-30: 2-0
31-45: 0-1
46-60: 0-1
61-75: 1-1
76-90: 3-0

I appreciate what you're saying but the pattern looks quite similar to me. :D

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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:38 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:31 pm
Home league games since Feb 1:

Times: Us-Them

0-15m: 3-1
16-30: 2-0
31-45: 0-1
46-60: 0-1
61-75: 1-1
76-90: 3-0

I appreciate what you're saying but the pattern looks quite similar to me. :D
:D

Though notice you've ignored January.

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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by CrazyHorse » Wed Apr 26, 2017 1:58 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:44 am
CrazyHorse wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:25 am
So statistically there's an 80% chance of not losing? Which actually isn't very tight at all?
Eh? In ten home games we've only once been in a comfortable winning position. And it should be noted we came from behind in that game.

Tight means we are not likely to be 2 or 3 nil up and comfortable based on home games we've seen with these players.
I've quadruple checked the maths and 80% is bang on. I mean I'll tweet Carol Vorderman if you really don't trust me but I'm not sure that's really necessary.

Btw, my reply to you was based on your original post rather than the subsequent edit which is there now. :)
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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by Prufrock » Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:11 pm

Beefheart wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:41 am
Prufrock wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:32 am
Surely v little chance Fleetwood-Vale ends in a draw? Helps neither of them.
I'm not sure the fact a draw helps neither side makes it statistically less likely. They will both be going for the win and may end up scoring an equal number of goals as a result.
That's a bit simplistic. Your chances of scoring don't exist independently of the other team and what you need from the game. The vast majority of games that end in a draw are tied after, say, 80 mins. In normal circumstances either team's desire to win is tempered by a desire to protect the point.

If they're drawing with 10 mins to go on Sat, both teams will be going hell for leather to get a goal. If one of them gets it, they'll defending for their lives.

By no means impossible it'll be a draw, but far less like than you'd otherwise expect, IMO.
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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:22 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:38 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:31 pm
Home league games since Feb 1:

Times: Us-Them

0-15m: 3-1
16-30: 2-0
31-45: 0-1
46-60: 0-1
61-75: 1-1
76-90: 3-0

I appreciate what you're saying but the pattern looks quite similar to me. :D
:D

Though notice you've ignored January.
You said "since January". Those are the ones since January. :D

That's also since the departures of Clough and Proctor (both Jan 31) and the arrivals of ALF/Morais/Long/Viv (30 Jan-Feb 1): in other words, the major transformation of the squad.

But as you make the point, even with January's results included, it's still not radically different:
0-15m: 4-1
16-30: 2-1
31-45: 0-2
46-60: 1-1
61-75: 1-2
76-90: 3-1

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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by Abdoulaye's Twin » Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:27 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:38 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:31 pm
Home league games since Feb 1:

Times: Us-Them

0-15m: 3-1
16-30: 2-0
31-45: 0-1
46-60: 0-1
61-75: 1-1
76-90: 3-0

I appreciate what you're saying but the pattern looks quite similar to me. :D
:D

Though notice you've ignored January.
You were fairly selective yourself :wink:

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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by irie Cee Bee » Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:34 pm

The ball is in our hands. the question is, what if after 15 mins. we are 0-0 and Fleetwood leads 2-0. Does the Players, fans and coaching team panic and self destruct or rise to the occasion?

I hope the latter.

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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by LeverEnd » Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:47 pm

Beefheart wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:41 am
Prufrock wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:32 am
Surely v little chance Fleetwood-Vale ends in a draw? Helps neither of them.
I'm not sure the fact a draw helps neither side makes it statistically less likely. They will both be going for the win and may end up scoring an equal number of goals as a result.
Thats what I meant. Fleetwood win more likely but less so with a battling Vale, who could hold them.
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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by Prufrock » Wed Apr 26, 2017 3:00 pm

I see how that could be the case with 80 mins gone, but then Vale will have to go gung-hoto score themselves.
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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by LeverEnd » Wed Apr 26, 2017 3:54 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 3:00 pm
I see how that could be the case with 80 mins gone, but then Vale will have to go gung-hoto score themselves.
True.
Fcuk it, let's just keep things simple and spank the Posh. :spank:
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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Apr 26, 2017 4:21 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 3:00 pm
I see how that could be the case with 80 mins gone, but then Vale will have to go gung-hoto score themselves.
Aye. Rather like the Leicester Forest scenario when we played Blackpool. A draw in that game would have seen us in the play-offs with our Blackpool draw, but both those teams needed a win to go above us. So with not long left at 2-2 in that game, Forest had everyone up and Leicester scored on the break. The chances of that game ending in a draw always seemed low, given both needed the win.

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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by General Mannerheim » Wed Apr 26, 2017 5:18 pm

LeverEnd wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 3:54 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 3:00 pm
I see how that could be the case with 80 mins gone, but then Vale will have to go gung-hoto score themselves.
True.
Fcuk it, let's just keep things simple and spank the Posh. :spank:
i might have a posh spank if it happens!

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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by TKIZ! » Wed Apr 26, 2017 6:23 pm

Ticket was here when I got home from work. Tense is palpable and it's only Wednesday
Pfffft.

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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by OrtonCakeBingoBongo » Wed Apr 26, 2017 6:42 pm

Had to look at the League One table to see where Bolton were. Realised you were in or around the automatic promotion places but just wanted confirmation. Yeah looks like you'll only need a point now for an instant return to the Championship and only Peterborough at home standing in the way, fair enough the opposition have nothing to play for which may make it awkward, but just concentrate on your strengths and play to your abilities and that alone will get the result that's required.

As a neutral it would be interesting to see closest challengers Fleetwood in the second tier from August (a repeat of Burton Albion last year) but sure you'll get the draw you need to take you back at the first attempt.

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Re: "It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves" Bolton vs Posh 30th April

Post by Cannes blanc » Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:29 pm

There is something strange with the bookies odds.
Bet 365 are offering 8-1 for Fleetwood to finish second, yet are offering 23/2 for a Fleetwood / Peterborough double?

Am I missing something or are there new rumours circulating about docking us points?
Seems a big difference to account for a Fleetwood 8-0 + win and Bolton draw?

Just sayin like....... :?

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