We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

[officer_dibble]

Back in the bottom 3...as I said at the time the ipswich dropped points were big. Need a win Friday now. feck knows what the team will be like then!

[BWFC_Insane]

Back in the bottom 3...as I said at the time the ipswich dropped points were big. Need a win Friday now. feck knows what the team will be like then!

Wilbraham will be up front. Yippeeee!

[nelson66]

4 of the 5 teams below us lost today - what a weekend !!!

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Back in the bottom 3...as I said at the time the ipswich dropped points were big. Need a win Friday now. feck knows what the team will be like then!

Wilbraham will be up front. Yippeeee!

You really are a right nice person.

[GhostoftheBok]

4 of the 5 teams below us lost today - what a weekend !!!

Just got to keep winning home games. Some tough away fixtures coming up.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Leeds have nicked Barnsley manager Paul Heckingbottom. That could be a big blow for the Tykes: although I'm sure their newfound riches will attract interest, the new guy won't be able to spend any of 'em.

[BWFC_Insane]

Leeds have nicked Barnsley manager Paul Heckingbottom. That could be a big blow for the Tykes: although I'm sure their newfound riches will attract interest, the new guy won't be able to spend any of 'em.

Yep good news. So long as Barnsley don't come after Parky.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

From the Guardian:

“The club are shocked at Paul Heckingbottom’s desire to leave, having agreed a new contract last week,” read a Barnsley statement. Chief executive Gauthier Ganaye added: “Yes, it was unexpected. Yes, it has come during an already complicated period. Yes, it will make things more difficult short term, but our club is full of resources and it is certainly not dependent on one man alone.”

... [Barnsley] have won one of their past 16 matches but Heckingbottom has established himself as one of the most exciting coaches in the country since taking on the role of head coach on the permanent basis in June 2016... He has worked on a modest budget and was influential in the development of the former Barnsley players Alfie Mawson, Mason Holgate and Conor Hourihane.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Latest statty update from Experimental 361: it might be reet.

2018-02-11-ch-probabilities.png (33.38 KiB) Viewed 5066 times

For a bit more detail see https://experimental361.com/2018/02/11/ ... -feb-2018/
- Hull on the up, Sunderland still sliding
- Birmingham expected to be just about worse than us
- model doesn't take into account uncertainty at Barnsley post-Heckingbottom

[nelson66]

Interesting that its still "The B's" at the bottom of the table - at the start of the season it was Burton, Bolton, Barnsley, and Brentford who were all expected to struggle....
thank god Hulll and Sunderland are also shyte

[nicholaldo]

There's one statistic that's acted as both my primary source of faith in these players and my barometer when assessing our chances of staying up or not, and that statistic is the PPG ratio of both ourselves and those around us since the twelfth round of fixtures. The past nineteen results for us, and twenty for the rest, might, at first glance, appear to be an arbitrary sample. However, I'd proffer that it isn't arbitrary at all and is, in fact, very valid due to the following two factors: the twelfth round of fixtures was the first time that we were able to start with Ameobi, Henry, Madine and Vela in the same eleven; and it was also the first time that we started all four and played a 4-2-3-1 i.e. picked our best players in our strongest formation. By my reckoning, we've only gone into a match without both of these things occurring since then once or twice.

And the data makes for some really quite comforting reading. By noting down the number of points accumulated by each of the bottom seven from my select group of fixtures, I found that we're the ones with the highest PPG ratio of that particular mini-league, and by a pretty satisfying margin - a full 0.32 PPG ahead of the second highest. Purely out of curiosity, I also noted down the points return of the teams above us. The result of this perhaps rather sad exercise, is that I made my way right up to Brentford in tenth place before I reached a team that could boast a better average.

The breakdown of each team's PPG ratio since the twelfth round of fixtures is as follows:

(name: points earned / fixtures played = PPG ratio)

BFC: 35 / 20 = 1.75 PPG
LUFC: 24 / 20 = 1.2 PPG
ITFC: 26 / 20 = 1.3 PPG
NCFC: 26 / 20 = 1.3 PPG
MFC: 26 / 20 = 1.3 PPG
QPRFC: 23 / 20 = 1.15 PPG
NFFC: 20 / 20 = 1.0 PPG
SWFC: 18 / 20 = 0.9 PPG
RFC: 23 / 20 = 1.15 PPG
BWFC: 28 / 19 = 1.47 PPG
BCFC: 22 / 20 = 1.1 PPG
HCFC: 20 / 20 = 1.0 PPG
---------------------------------
BFC: 17 / 20 = 0.85 PPG
SAFC: 19 / 20 = 0.95 PPG
BAFC: 16 / 20 = 0.8 PPG

Or, if organised by PPG ratio instead of current league position:

BFC: 35 / 20 = 1.75 PPG
BWFC: 28 / 19 = 1.47 PPG
TFC: 26 / 20 = 1.3 PPG
NCFC: 26 / 20 = 1.3 PPG
MFC: 26 / 20 = 1.3 PPG
LUFC: 24 / 20 = 1.2 PPG
QPRFC: 23 / 20 = 1.15 PPG
RFC: 23 / 20 = 1.15 PPG
BCFC: 22 / 20 = 1.1 PPG
NFFC: 20 / 20 = 1.0 PPG
HCFC: 20 / 20 = 1.0 PPG
SAFC: 19 / 20 = 0.95 PPG
---------------------------------
SWFC: 18 / 20 = 0.9 PPG
BFC: 17 / 20 = 0.85 PPG
BAFC: 16 / 20 = 0.8 PPG

My main point here, is that whilst the teams around us have always been relegation candidates, we've been generating a top half points return since mid-October, which I'd argue is a suitably long enough period of time to make a judgement. Also worthy of note, is that we've amassed more points in this run than the bottom two have in all of their fixtures put together, and an equal number of points as third from bottom Barnsley have in all of theirs, despite playing twelve fewer matches.

The problem now, in my opinion, is that we've always played with a target man and having sold our best one, I'm yet to be convinced that we can continue to get away with Ameobi acting as a makeshift. Nevertheless, Parky's instilled an attitude and a determination in us that can only work to our benefit, and it has to be said that results post-Madine have, thus far, been positive.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

It’s a very fair point, mate, and a good post.

To put it into context: our 11th league game was at Villa on Sep 30th; we lost 1-0, which was better than many had feared, but it was still an eighth successive defeat and a seventh successive defeat to nil. I believe it was at about this point that one bookmaker paid out for bets on our relegation.

The next day, Oct 1st, Sheff Wednesday beat Leeds 3-0 and the table looked like this:

table011017.png (59.17 KiB) Viewed 4918 times

Then there was an international break. That gave us the chance to do some serious training-ground work on the 4231 formation, pairing Henry and Pratley; having abandoned the back three after a 3-0 home humiliation by Brentford on Sep 23rd, the new shape had shown promise in the wholly expected defeats at Bristol City (midweek) and Villa. We promptly went on a seven-match unbeaten run – beating Sheffield Wednesday and Norwich, and going in front against QPR, Fulham, Sunderland and Reading before letting the buggers back in. In short, we found form and confidence, if not necessarily water-tightness.

Anyway I won’t retread the whole season (yet) but further to Nicholaldo’s point, there’s an Ipswich Town fanzine site that allows you to generate league tables between dates (to an extent). This is how the tier-two league table looks since that October international break.

tablesince021017.png (116.94 KiB) Viewed 4918 times

Now, to what Nicholaldo describes as a “problem”. I’m frankly bored of the Madine shibboleth, from both sides – the cheerleaders and the naysayers (and I’m not saying Nicholaldo is either). But I’m genuinely intrigued by the enforced tactical possibilities without having Big Gaz around to rely on, and hopeful that we can become less predictable – not for the aesthetics, but for the likelihood of triumph.

The fact that we’d Madined our way to midtable form is very welcome, but when we faced those teams again they might well have been concocting a plan to counter our one-dimensional tactics. Our next seven matches are all against teams we got points off in the first half of the season:
Tue 13/02 Cardiff (won before Christmas)
Sat 17/02 QPR (d)
Tue 20/02 Sunderland (d)
Sat 24/02 Norwich (w)
Sat 03/03 PNE (d)
Tue 06/03 Reading (d)
Sat 10/03 Sheff Wed (w)

It’s my contention that all those teams would have been much better prepared for a one-tactic team: 4231 with a target man, pick up the runners. And with eight games in 29 days between Fulham and Sheff Wed, poor old Gaz would be gasping by the time he got back to Hillsborough. I would have been very (pleasantly) surprised if our results *hadn’t* fallen off in the spring.

Whereas now, even we don’t know what we’re going to pick. Ameobi, Clough, ALF and Walker are all very different types of strikers who could suit very different types of games (or sections within dependent on scoreline). Judicious rotation of them could keep them firing at something close to full fitness without a significant drop-off in team form – indeed, if subs come on with plenty to prove like ALF did on Saturday then we’re in a good position.

[bristol_Wanderer3]

Yes DSB, the point about us being more unpredictable to play against post Madine is a good one, and one I forgot to include in the potential case for us being better equipped to stay up in the Cardiff match thread. It is very likely that our season will be made or broken by some crucial relegation battles at the end of the season. We play Birmingham (h), Millwall (h), Barnsley (a), Burton (a), Forest (h) in the last seven games. If we were playing the same way, with long balls to Madine and then fighting the second balls, we would be very easy to prepare for in a "cup final" situation. Burton have already done a job on us at the Macron. The unpredictability our current crew of front men gives us, plus the fact that we have four of them and can therefore cover for loss of form or injuries, not to mention having options on the bench, must stand us in better stead for these battles.

I also think a lot of the points we have gained since September have been against teams who think they are a lot better than us, and just have to turn up against a team at the bottom to take three points. Anyone who watched our September exploits would be forgiven for being lulled into that thought process. Now teams are actually looking to combat our strengths, so being one dimensional would be more of a problem.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Yes DSB, the point about us being more unpredictable to play against post Madine is a good one, and one I forgot to include in the potential case for us being better equipped to stay up in the Cardiff match thread. It is very likely that our season will be made or broken by some crucial relegation battles at the end of the season. We play Birmingham (h), Millwall (h), Barnsley (a), Burton (a), Forest (h) in the last seven games. If we were playing the same way, with long balls to Madine and then fighting the second balls, we would be very easy to prepare for in a "cup final" situation. Burton have already done a job on us at the Macron. The unpredictability our current crew of front men gives us, plus the fact that we have four of them and can therefore cover for loss of form or injuries, not to mention having options on the bench, must stand us in better stead for these battles.

Aye, I still think the relegation six-pointers are vital – mainly because we can land direct hits on other teams - but I also now think we're capable of getting results against other teams, especially in the middle tranche, and especially if they're on a wobble. Sheffield Wednesday were 16th when we beat them (but had only won one in the previous four), Norwich 9th (but had only won one in a month), Barnsley 18th (but hadn't won in four weeks), Cardiff 2nd (but then lost to Fulham, Preston and QPR and were held 0-0 at home by Mansfield).

There's also something to be asked about how we break down teams who sit deep against us. Not many have done, partly because we've been seen as bobbins and partly because we had little speed up top. Burton did and it worked, and you could picture other managers repeating that plan for upcoming six-pointers – especially the ones at home to Sunderland and Birmingham.

Away from home it's different, but it's easier to defend against a target-man team: basically you just keep your two centre-halves back, one to challenge and one to cover, while having a couple of your midfielders detailed to track runners seeking knock-downs. It's very different defending against pace, or dribbling, or passing.

I also think a lot of the points we have gained since September have been against teams who think they are a lot better than us, and just have to turn up against a team at the bottom to take three points. Anyone who watched our September exploits would be forgiven for being lulled into that thought process. Now teams are actually looking to combat our strengths, so being one dimensional would be more of a problem.

Yeah, that's very true - we kinda went under the radar for a while. Now we're above the pips we're seen as more of a threat – although it may still depend who teams are playing "either side of us". For instance, on Saturday Cardiff host Boro. Norwich and Reading both host us three days after travelling to Wolves.

[BWFC_Insane]

Are we really unpredictable? We're playing Ameobi as our outlet. If he is out for any reason I shudder to think what we do. But its hardly like we've suddenly become Man City overnight.

We're grafting. But our general play is exactly the same as it was with Madine here. The shape has changed to accommodate someone else up front alongside Sammi. Whilst Sammi adds some different quality up front and is in himself unpredictable I don't think we have more ways of breaking teams down, I think we have less.

With Madine we could go long, play for set pieces, get it into his chest or simply push the wide men/wing backs on and get crosses in.

Now we're reliant on Ameobi or Clough doing something outside the box. Long balls are wasted and throwing crosses into the box is generally also a waste of time.

[Dr Hotdog]

Are we really unpredictable? We're playing Ameobi as our outlet. If he is out for any reason I shudder to think what we do. But its hardly like we've suddenly become Man City overnight.

We're grafting. But our general play is exactly the same as it was with Madine here. The shape has changed to accommodate someone else up front alongside Sammi. Whilst Sammi adds some different quality up front and is in himself unpredictable I don't think we have more ways of breaking teams down, I think we have less.

With Madine we could go long, play for set pieces, get it into his chest or simply push the wide men/wing backs on and get crosses in.

Now we're reliant on Ameobi or Clough doing something outside the box. Long balls are wasted and throwing crosses into the box is generally also a waste of time.

For most, if not all, football teams.

[TANGODANCER]

With Madine we could go long, play for set pieces, get it into his chest or simply push the wide men/wing backs on and get crosses in.Now we're reliant on Ameobi or Clough doing something outside the box. Long balls are wasted and throwing crosses into the box is generally also a waste of time.

F.F.S mate, Madine's gone; he plays for Cardiff. He's been gone only a couple of weeks and we've taken 5 points from our last three games. You have no more idea than anybody else what we're reliant on or how we'll play or what's a waste of time or not.We also don't know yet what impact Walker or Clough will have now they've played a game, or what Sammi will do up front. If anybody knew, the bookies would be out of business. Life after Madine seems very small crumbs compared to life after Anelka, Sturridge, Kev Davies, Jay Jay or half-a-dozen others. We're still here despite all. Get over it.

ps..Sessegnon throwing a cross into the box was the reason we got one point on Saturday instead of a possible three.

[BWFC_Insane]

With Madine we could go long, play for set pieces, get it into his chest or simply push the wide men/wing backs on and get crosses in.Now we're reliant on Ameobi or Clough doing something outside the box. Long balls are wasted and throwing crosses into the box is generally also a waste of time.

F.F.S mate, Madine's gone; he plays for Cardiff. He's been gone only a couple of weeks and we've taken 5 points from our last three games. You have no more idea than anybody else what we're reliant on or how we'll play or what's a waste of time or not.We also don't know yet what impact Walker or Clough will have now they've played a game, or what Sammi will do up front. If anybody knew, the bookies would be out of business. Life after Madine seems very small crumbs compared to life after Anelka, Sturridge, Kev Davies, Jay Jay or half-a-dozen others. We're still here despite all. Get over it.

ps..Sessegnon throwing a cross into the box was the reason we got one point on Saturday instead of a possible three.

Its a discussion where I was countering a point made by DSB and BW that we would have more unpredictability and variety without Madine.

I'm not sure how I'm meant to argue my point without mentioning his name. Its going to be very tedious if without reading the content of my post you simply respond with the same pre-determined thing.

The main thrust of my argument is that we need to add a target man because without one we are overly reliant on Ameobi and also more one-dimensional than we were before. That is fully accepting Madine has gone but also feeling we haven't to any extent adequately replaced him.

[Harry Genshaw]

Those tables demonstrate that our defending in general, and particularly at home are what led to the upsurge in form.

We've gone all season creating few chances per game. Have we lost the long ball option now Madines gone? Saturdays goal shows it can still be an option, just not one to rely on like perhaps we were.

Our biggest miss will be Madines electric pace apparently, but somehow I've been missing that these last 3 years

[bristol_Wanderer3]

Are we really unpredictable? We're playing Ameobi as our outlet. If he is out for any reason I shudder to think what we do. But its hardly like we've suddenly become Man City overnight.

We're grafting. But our general play is exactly the same as it was with Madine here. The shape has changed to accommodate someone else up front alongside Sammi. Whilst Sammi adds some different quality up front and is in himself unpredictable I don't think we have more ways of breaking teams down, I think we have less.

With Madine we could go long, play for set pieces, get it into his chest or simply push the wide men/wing backs on and get crosses in.

Now we're reliant on Ameobi or Clough doing something outside the box. Long balls are wasted and throwing crosses into the box is generally also a waste of time.

Surely even if one is taking the strongest pro Madine stance one has to concede that we have more variety and unpredictability going forward now?

Before we had Madine, who was exceptionally good at being a nuisance for defenders and good at bringing others into play, and was good for a number of close range finishes. Ameobi had at times a big impact going forward but in recent times that faded partly because he was responsible for lung bursting journeys up and down the right touchline to keep the defensive shape. And we really never got an effective from the right hand side, apart from a couple of games where Buckley and Armstrong delivered. And Vela was virtually anonymous as a creative force. Our approach was hit it long to Madine, with a secondary option of using our overlapping full backs out wide.

Now we have a number of options. Not all of them are consistent, but if you are an opposing manager you have to prepare for a number of scenarios. We could use Ameobi as Madine 2.0. We can have Ameobi as a number 10 and have any of Clough, ALF, Walker or Wilbraham as the no. 9. Clough can also play as a no. 10, or we can have Ameobi and one other as a pair up top. Clough brings intelligent movement and finishing, ALF brings instinctive finishing. Walker brings raw pace and finishing. Wilbraham is a big target man a la Madine. And Ameobi brings pace, dribbling, long range shooting, and is a physical presence. And we still have other threats such as decent wing backs, and the likes of Vela breaking forward from midfield.

You are the manager of Birmingham or Barnsley. Which scenario is harder to prepare for?