We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

[Lost Leopard Spot]

It seems obvious to me that a nil-nil draw would be best for us tonight, but, if one team is going to win, who would that be in our best interests?
(sorry, talking Hull, Barnsley).

[TANGODANCER]

Barnsley Hull 1-1 at full time. Leaves both still behind us on level games. Just need Sheffield to beat Reading tomorrow and all will be fine.

[Prufrock]

You know I've just got this really strong feeling they might.

[DJBlu]

You know I've just got this really strong feeling they might.

I've got a tenner on 3-1 to Sheffield Utd and Sharp as first goal scorer. Might throw a cheeky fiver on 2-0 at HT.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Well, that turned out nice.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Many thanks to Barnsley and Hull for cancelling (and, in one case, knocking) each other out. Also to Sheffield United for whacking in three at Reading.

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Satursay's fixtures (all 3pm):
Villa vs QPR
Barnsley vs Norwich
Bolton vs Preston
Bristol City vs Sheff Wed
Ipswich vs Hull
Millwall vs Sunderland
Forest vs Birmingham
Sheff Utd vs Burton
Wolves vs Reading

Quite difficult fixtures all round. Last week we had the hardest - this week ain’t easy but most of the others have it much worse.

Reading are the only team we can overtake this weekend, so it’s nice to see they’re travelling to Wolves. The Royals have 20 away points compared to 14 at home (every team has now played 17 of each); only Burton have a greater disparity. But they’ve only won one of their last seven trips, while Wolves still have the division’s best home record and might want to crack on again after two wins and a loss in their last three games have allowed Cardiff back to within six points.

Our opponents Preston are very slightly better away than at home (26pts vs 25) but overall in 2018 they’ve have turned into draw specialists – they’re W2 D5 L2 and have somehow managed to pack five 1-1 draws into nine games. Fine margins, then, but they haven’t lost away since Bonfire Night. I’d file this under Winnable but a draw would not be a shock.

If we drew it would give chance for Hull, Barnsley or both to jump above us, as either could’ve by winning last night. Hull have only won 2 in 13 but they’ve both been in the last four; they’ve lost six of their last seven trips and Ipswich aren’t an easy team to score against.

Barnsley have their second home game under the Postman’s dad. The first didn’t go too well - they lost to Burton – but he’s picked up four points on the road since. Intrigued to see how they shape up, and I hope Norwich have spent the last week sharpening their shooting boots - although as Iles noted this week, statistically no defence works harder than ours, so hopefully they’ll find more holes than we showed. They’ll also be fresher than Barnsley, and we know the Canaries like to think they can wear you down.

The three teams in the drop zone can’t catch us this week, but they could gain ground. Birmingham boss Steve Cotterill has been under such speculation this week that the local press have felt the need to confirm he’s taking the pre-match press conference – although the club owner is in England for meetings and could pull the trigger at any time. Forest, one of his many ex-clubs, explosively found their groove at QPR on Saturday so the tension on their side will be lessened. Forest are now six points clear of us so it’s tempting to want them to nail down Cotterill’s coffin – but a surprise away win could drag them back into it.

Burton travel to Sheff Utd, who have won three of their last four to sneak back into the play-offs, so they won’t want to slip back out again. Their fans will have mixed feelings that Bristol City, whom they leapfrogged to clamber over the dots, host Sheffield Wednesday, who happen to be three points above us; the wobbly Robins haven’t won in five (starting at our place), while the Owls have only won two league games in the last 18 (since Bonfire Night!) and may also be heavy-legged after midweek FA Cup exertions. It’s not a big ask for both these to be home wins, which would be good news for us.

Sunderland are now seven points behind us, as far away from us as 15th place. They have to go to Millwall, who since losing on New Year’s Day have gone W5 D3 L0; they lost to Barnsley and Burton back in autumn but haven’t been beaten at home since Bonfire Night. Sunderland need wins rather than draws, and they’re unlikely to start here.

Finally in bottom-10 news, QPR (5pts above us, 5-2 losers at home to Forest) travel to Villa, who’ve gone W8 D1 L1 since Boxing Day and are W10 D6 L1 at home this season. Home win – which could put us within 2pts of QPR if we do our job. COYWM!

Worst-case scenario:
15 42 QPR (W at Villa)
16 40 Sheff Wed (W at Bristol)
17 40 Forest (L v Birmingham)
18 37 Reading (W at Wolves)
19 36 Hull (W at Ipswich)
20 35 Barnsley (W v Norwich)
21 34 BWFC (L v Preston)
———
22 33 Birmingham (W at Forest)
23 32 Burton (W at Blades)
24 30 Sunderland (W at Millwall)

Best-case scenario:
16 39 QPR (L at Villa)
17 37 Sheff Wed (L at Bristol)
18 37 BWFC (W v Preston)
19 34 Reading (L at Wolves)
20 33 Hull (L at Ipswich)
21 32 Barnsley (L home to Norwich)
——
22 30 Birmingham (L at Forest)
23 29 Burton (L at Blades)
24 27 Sunderland (L at Millwall)

…we can be 7pts above the dots and 10pts off the bottom.

[Bruce Rioja]

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT
http://sport.bt.com/football/barnsley-a ... 4254618297

Excellent. Don't tell the thuggish, loutish, violent tvvats when the game is and hopefully they won't show up. Bingo.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Villa P-P QPR
Barnsley P-P Norwich
Bolton 1-3 Preston
Bristol City 4-0 Sheff Wed
Ipswich P-P Hull
Millwall 1-1 Sunderland
Forest 2-1 Birmingham
Sheff Utd P-P Burton
Wolves P-P Reading

Not a great weekend, but again it could’ve been much worse. Although Sunderland held on for a point at Millwall despite a shot count of 15-2 (7-1 on target), they need wins rather than draws to catch us up. Sheff Weds were demolished 4-0 at Bristol (shots on target 6v0) and will now want the season to end – hardly the best motivation. Birmingham’s 2-1 defeat did for Steve Cotterill and maintained our four-point cushion from safety; yes, Burton have a game in hand, but it’s at Sheffield United.

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And so to Tuesday’s games (7.45 bar ours which is 8pm):
Birmingham-Boro
Burton-Brentford
Cardiff-Barnsley
Hull-Millwall
Sunderland-Villa
Sheff Weds-Ipswich
Reading-Bolton

Again, I suspect if we could switch opponents with any of our relegation rivals, we’d stick rather than twist for the majority (bar maybe Hull’s). Much pressure on Garry Monk, but it’s not the most fearsome appointment: he won his first game managing Swansea (emotional Cardiff derby) but his next six were D3 L3; he doesn’t have that much time, and he doesn’t know the club as well. His first six games at Leeds, where he took over in summer 2016, were W1 D1 L4; at Boro (summer 2017) it was a better W3 D1 L2, but he was gone by Christmas – and at both those clubs he had better players than Birmingham’s demoralised rabble.

A fortnight ago Birmingham shipped five at Brentford and hopefully the Bees will extend Burton’s miserable home record (LLLLLLLLDLLDL). Barnsley have shown some life under Morais but Cardiff’s a difficult destination and the hosts will play a type of football yer man might not have faced much. Hull have won at home once since Christmas (W1 D5 L0)and Millwall are unbeaten in nine since NYD (W5 D4). Steve Bruce won’t want to lose at Sunderland and he’s unlikely to: Villa have 27 away points to Sunderland’s 12 home ‘uns. Ten days ago Villa scored four at Hillsborough, where Wednesday have won once since October, so Mick Mac might fancy Ipswich grabbing something in his home county.

[Jakerbeef]

These stat posts are doing wonders for my confidence in avoiding the drop!

They also remind me why I don't gamble so much anymore. (Did i mention I won over 100 quid when I predicted we'd be relegated back in the prem?)

Hey, when life gives you lemons...

[CrazyHorse]

...throw a lemon party??

[Jakerbeef]

...throw a lemon party??

I was implying we were the lemons!

Or were last weekend anyway.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I'll try to do the results/table/fixtures thing later, but for now: Marc Iles has done his predictions for the last 10 games and reckons we'll get 50 points... http://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/wa ... oint_mark/

[Lost Leopard Spot]

I'll try to do the results/table/fixtures thing later, but for now: Marc Iles has done his predictions for the last 10 games and reckons we'll get 50 points... http://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/wa ... oint_mark/

I fear he's being a tad overoptimistic in quite a few of those games, not least Forest, Barnsley, Wolves, and Burton.

[BWFC_Insane]

I'll try to do the results/table/fixtures thing later, but for now: Marc Iles has done his predictions for the last 10 games and reckons we'll get 50 points... http://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/wa ... oint_mark/

I fear he's being a tad overoptimistic in quite a few of those games, not least Forest, Barnsley, Wolves, and Burton.

His results are plausible. But it just takes one predicted win or a few draws, becoming a loss/losses and then we're in real trouble possibly.

Trouble is, I struggle to see us springing many surprising results, so there are definitely some big pressure games coming up. Must wins, if ever there were must wins.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I'll try to do the results/table/fixtures thing later, but for now: Marc Iles has done his predictions for the last 10 games and reckons we'll get 50 points... http://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/wa ... oint_mark/

I fear he's being a tad overoptimistic in quite a few of those games, not least Forest, Barnsley, Wolves, and Burton.

All about opinions, my bespotted feline friend. But here's a pleasing string of facts: Burton's home league record this season is LWDWLLLLLLLLDLLDLL. That's two points from 42 since mid-September. I can't blame him for thinking we might win there.

Anyway, quick round-up of Tuesday's results:
Birmingham 0-1 Boro - yay!
Burton 0-2 Brentford - yay!
Cardiff 2-1 Barnsley - yay!
Hull 1-2 Millwall - yay!
Sheff Weds 1-2 Ipswich - yay!
Sunderland 0-3 Villa - yay!
Reading 1-1 Bolton - slightly smaller yay!

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Not bad, not bad at all. And so to Saturday (3pm):
Burton v Bristol City
Cardiff v Birmingham
Hull v Norwich
Boro v Barnsley
QPR v Sunderland
Reading v Leeds
Sheff Wed v The Mighty Mighty Bolton

Again, seems like a decent bunch of fixtures for us. I do think we can win at a spiralling Wednesday with much less fight than us.
• Birmingham travel to Cardiff, where Garry Monk will get the usual welcome for Swansea folk. Difficult to see them getting anything but abuse and a kicking.
• Barnsley at Boro: will Morais have seen anything like a Pulis team before? Speaking with honesty rather than a football fan's innate fear of the worst, would you back Barnsley?
• Hull might fancy beating Norwich but the Canaries haven't lost in seven, one loss in 12, six unbeaten away (W3 D3) so hopefully they'll do us another favour here.
• Burton are at home, which is good; Bristol City are a bit up and down and not very good on the road, but much worse teams than they have won at the Pirelli. Hopefully the right Robins will turn up, but I wouldn't be stunned so see the Brewers get a first home win since September (September!). Doesn't mean they'll be hitting promotion form.
• Sunderland are at QPR, who are a bit in and out but have been beating the worst teams without fuss – Birmingham, Burton, Barnsley, us. Sunderland are seven points behind us.
• And above us, possibly "for now", Reading host Leeds. Reading are rubbish, their ground is a ghost town where they haven't won since November. They're treading water, and Leeds - who have lost heavily twice on the bounce but to two decent sides in Boro and Wolves – may fancy getting more from their next three fixtures: Reading, Wednesday.. and us. But that's for later in the thread...

[TANGODANCER]

Wednesday could be more than a banana skin unless we treat it with respect defensively and adopt guerilla tactics offensively. One goal in front is always nerve wracking, so get two or three.

[Harry Genshaw]

Not wishing to be all doom mongery but I can see Barnsley getting something at Boro. They ran Cardiff quite close midweek and seem to be playing well under the new gaffer

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Not wishing to be all doom mongery but I can see Barnsley getting something at Boro. They ran Cardiff quite close midweek and seem to be playing well under the new gaffer

Your monging of doomery is what I too thought. But, I've got to snap out of this... negativity is a bane of the Free World. We Will Overcome!

[BWFC_Insane]

Not wishing to be all doom mongery but I can see Barnsley getting something at Boro. They ran Cardiff quite close midweek and seem to be playing well under the new gaffer

There will be surprise results now down the bottom. The odd team will win games we're not expecting. Always happens.

IF we keep our spirit and find some way of scoring goals we'll be more than fine. The first part doesn't worry me, the second part is mildly worrying.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

There will be surprise results now down the bottom. The odd team will win games we're not expecting. Always happens.

IF we keep our spirit and find some way of scoring goals we'll be more than fine. The first part doesn't worry me, the second part is mildly worrying.

There "may" be surprise results. Perhaps even "given previous seasons, there is likely to be" surprise results. But you can't know there "will".

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In the last 20 games the bottom four have played, there have been two wins. One was Burton's at Barnsley. The other was Barnsley's at Birmingham.

You might be right, but it hasn't happened yet. Meantime, we've been tiptoeing up the league ladder, and now we'd need three teams to catch us up before the much-monged doom. By tomorrow night, it might just be five.