We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

[Harry Genshaw]

It seems to me that we have 3 key games - Burton Barnsley and Birmingham.
If we win all 3 - we will be certain to stay up.
We would have 48 points and they would all have one game less to catch us.

It's those games that stop me from believing we're safe yet. Lose any of them and it ratchets up the pressure. Avoid defeat and they've run out of another game to catch us

[TANGODANCER]

It seems to me that we have 3 key games - Burton Barnsley and Birmingham.
If we win all 3 - we will be certain to stay up.
We would have 48 points and they would all have one game less to catch us.

It's those games that stop me from believing we're safe yet. Lose any of them and it ratchets up the pressure. Avoid defeat and they've run out of another game to catch us

If we win games, regardless of who and when, we'll be done and dusted. We need to forget hard/soft games and treat them all as win but don't lose. Not a Sherlock statement, but this is as hard, maybe harder a section of games than any other period this season, because the past is what has put us where we are and that's history, but the pressure is as much psychological as physical. Present and future is what we need to focus on now. Saturday's display shows that whilst we may not be Premiership contenders, we're certainly better than Division One fodder. After that, it's que sera....

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

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Barnsley 0-2 Millwall
Birmingham 3-0 Hull
Leeds 1-2 Sheffield Wednesday
Norwich 3-2 Reading
Sunderland 0-2 Preston
Wolves 3-1 Burton
Bolton 1-0 Villa

Well, that was an unexpectedly pleasant end to that run of 10 fixtures in 44 days. Those 10 fixtures, which all came after the deadline-nudging sale of our most effective striker, have yielded three 1-0 wins, four draws and three defeats for an impressive 1.3ppg; over a season that would equate to 59.8pts, which across the last five years would produce a fairly steady 14th place. Not bad at all considering the fears understandably expressed after the big man’s departure. (For the record, in the 10 league fixtures before Madine left, we also got 13 points: W4 D1 L5.)

With international break giving the teams the best part of a fortnight off, I thought I’d take a slightly longer view than usual. There are eight games left, and they start in a rush: two over Easter weekend followed by Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday. Buckle up.

Sunderland lost 2-0 at home to Preston and definitely have about them what King Lear would call the smell of mortality. Burton lost 3-1 at Wolves, and although the ageless Lloyd Dyer gave them hope by halving the arrears, that was their only shot on target as Wolves waved relentlessly forward (71% possession, 15 shots).

Sunderland and Burton are now more points behind us than there are games left. It’s not an uncrossable chasm but it would take a frankly unlikely combination of events: not only them finding form, but us losing ours and to a much greater extent than the two teams below us. We may feel like we’re still in a relegation battle but Birmingham fans will be studying Barnsley’s and Reading’s fixtures much more than ours.

Blues fans will have renewed hope that Garry Monk’s the man after they beat Hull 3-0. Evidently feeling safe after consecutive victories shot them from 20th to 17th, the paper Tigers had 62% possession but one shot on target to Blues’ eight. Birmingham will now be eyeing their next three fixtures – Ipswich home, us away, Burton home – as the eight-day run of fixtures that could make or break them. It’s worth noting that according to SoccerStats.com, judging by the PPG of each team's opponents at home or away as is relevant, Blues have the hardest run-in of the entire division. (The easiest? Bolton Wanderers.)

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At the moment, Barnsley are only above Birmingham on goal difference. A 2-0 home loss to Millwall was their fourth loss in seven under new manager Morais; the Tykes had majority possession and twice as many shots, but Millwall picked them off. Barnsley haven’t won at home since Bonfire Night, and in that time they’ve hardly been hot shit away either (nine points in 12 trips). Next four games are Bristol home, Forest away, Blades home, Ipswich away – then us at home.

Reading are the dark Devon Lochs. In early December they won at Sunderland to go 14th; since then, DLLLDLDLWLLDDLDDLL - 18 played, W1 D7 L10, 10pts. That’s comfortably the division’s worst form (Barnsley are 23rd in 13pts, Birmingham 19th with 17pts, we’re 14th with 23pts) and shows no sign of ending – they’ve conceded 16 in the last six games. Their next four games are QPR home, Villa away, Preston home, Fulham away – so things could get a lot worse; they also finish the season at Cardiff.

Hull are curious. Having whacked seven past Norwich and Ipswich (Anglia grinders?) they got dicked 3-0 at Birmingham. Bear that in mind when you see their next few games are Villa home, Wolves away, QPR home, Burton away. Could go either way but I wouldn’t be astonished if we finish above them.

And finally, there’s Sheffield Wednesday, who we’d be above right now if that big lad up top Atdhe Nuhiu, evidently buoyed by Parky’s kind words, hadn’t bagged both in a 2-1 win at Leeds (who have now collected six points in eight games under Paul Heckmondthwaiteeehbygumlad). Wednesday, two points above us, have Preston home, Sunderland away, Fulham home, QPR away. Leeds’ next game? The Mighty Wanderers.

According to Experimental361's number-crunching, we have about 93% chance of survival. Have a nice international break.

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[BWFC_Insane]

With no scientific accuracy or evidence to offer I think Birmingham will stay up. They'll win a few under Monk. Looking at their performance against Hull they've got enough talent to win 3/4 games between now and the end of the season and draw the odd one.

Reading have QPR, Sunderland and Ipswich to come at home. I reckon looking at their other fixtures they might need to win all 3 of those. Certainly 2 and another (less likely) win from somewhere else.

Hull have a tough run in, but have Burton and you'd fancy them to win a couple.

I think safety will be around 47 ish points. 48/49 to be comfortable. 45/46 edgy.

That is how I see it.

We need probably 3 wins. Or two wins and a couple of draws.

Leeds are awful. I hope we can get a win there, but the loss of momentum from the international break has definitely come at the wrong time for us. The only concern I have would be losing at Leeds and Brum beating Ipswich at home and coming to our game full of confidence after we've slipped a bit. I honestly think if we get through those 2 games with no further damage to our position we'll be absolutely fine. But the risk for me is the next two.

[knobpolisher]

I honestly think if we get through those 2 games with no further damage to our position we'll be absolutely fine. But the risk for me is the next two.

And in the glass half full camp win the next two and I believe we are sorted.

[GhostoftheBok]

Whether it's 2 or 3 wins, we are close now. It's just about maintaining levels and maybe finding another 10% in the final third. If we can keep up the never-say-die attitude at the back we'll give ourselves every chance.

[BWFC_Insane]

I honestly think if we get through those 2 games with no further damage to our position we'll be absolutely fine. But the risk for me is the next two.

And in the glass half full camp win the next two and I believe we are sorted.

Aye. That's the dream. And very possible.

However, I know football has a nasty habit of kicking you just as you think you're ok.

[irie Cee Bee]

It seems to me that we have 3 key games - Burton Barnsley and Birmingham.
If we win all 3 - we will be certain to stay up.
We would have 48 points and they would all have one game less to catch us.

They will be the 3 hardest games we have left to play. Teams battling relegation fight for their lives.

[Bruce Rioja]

Iles Twotted a 'post transfer window' table up yesterday which I made a bollocks of trying to post across.

If anyone can dig it out it made for pretty interesting reading.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Iles Twotted a 'post transfer window' table up yesterday which I made a bollocks of trying to post across.

If anyone can dig it out it made for pretty interesting reading.

https://twitter.com/MarcIles/status/975738553857642497

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[knobpolisher]

Very interesting, look how madine has improved Cardiffs position and ours by not playing.

What a man .

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Stam, bam, thank you ma'am: Jaap gets his marching orders. Reading rendered rudderless, albeit with nine days until their next fixture.

Question is, will they be considering their iconic former midfielder, Mr P. Parkinson? The local newspaper thinks so:

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SkyBet has Stam's assistant as the favourite, but not by much:

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[BWFC_Insane]

Disaster if Parky goes there, but as Iles points out he is a Royals "legend".

I don't think he'd go though, not at this stage, he's a job to see through here and 9 games isn't long to turn a free-falling Reading around.

Should Reading stay up with a temporary appointment though and come sniffing in the summer, that might be a very different story.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Disaster if Parky goes there, but as Iles points out he is a Royals "legend".

I don't think he'd go though, not at this stage, he's a job to see through here and 9 games isn't long to turn a free-falling Reading around.

Should Reading stay up with a temporary appointment though and come sniffing in the summer, that might be a very different story.

I see your point re waiting, but I can also see the opposite. If he walks now, he can say he's left us in a very strong position and it's Very Far From His Fault if we go down ("I had to go back to a club I love..."). I genuinely don't think it would take much to make Reading solid enough to survive - just the Parky organisation should suffice.

And then he's basically kept two teams up, with a summer to reshape Reading into a decent team, on twice the wage bill he has here.

[BWFC_Insane]

Disaster if Parky goes there, but as Iles points out he is a Royals "legend".

I don't think he'd go though, not at this stage, he's a job to see through here and 9 games isn't long to turn a free-falling Reading around.

Should Reading stay up with a temporary appointment though and come sniffing in the summer, that might be a very different story.

I see your point re waiting, but I can also see the opposite. If he walks now, he can say he's left us in a very strong position and it's Very Far From His Fault if we go down ("I had to go back to a club I love..."). I genuinely don't think it would take much to make Reading solid enough to survive - just the Parky organisation should suffice.

And then he's basically kept two teams up, with a summer to reshape Reading into a decent team, on twice the wage bill he has here.

FFS.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

FFS.

Now now, champ. It's entirely plausible that he'll stay – he's hardly a ship-jumper, having spent four years at Charlton and five at Bradford. (He did leave Colchester to manage Hull, but that was early in his career and may serve as more of a warning against hubris than a call to flee.) He will have genuine hope that this summer we'll attract investment. I assume his family are settled Ooop North.

And it's far from sure that Reading will want him. If they want a familiar face, Graeme Murty (who's at Rangers until season's end) is just as short-odds. Paul Clement and (slightly less believably) Marco Silva offer perhaps more glamorous options, and then there's Nigel Pearson who's marooned among Walloons. (Actually Leuven are in the Flemish part of Belgium, but that's not as funny.)

[BWFC_Insane]

FFS.

Now now, champ. It's entirely plausible that he'll stay – he's hardly a ship-jumper, having spent four years at Charlton and five at Bradford. (He did leave Colchester to manage Hull, but that was early in his career and may serve as more of a warning against hubris than a call to flee.) He will have genuine hope that this summer we'll attract investment. I assume his family are settled Ooop North.

And it's far from sure that Reading will want him. If they want a familiar face, Graeme Murty (who's at Rangers until season's end) is just as short-odds. Paul Clement and (slightly less believably) Marco Silva offer perhaps more glamorous options, and then there's Nigel Pearson who's marooned among Walloons. (Actually Leuven are in the Flemish part of Belgium, but that's not as funny.)

I personally think moving on NOW to a club in a relegation fight is too risky for him. Look at his start this season here. He does have bad runs. Whilst of course he could have a bad run with us, given the way he's pulled the players together one has to assume he can keep things broadly moving in the right direction. New club, new surroundings, have a bad start and you're in trouble when there are 9 to go.

I do think we should be getting him on a long term deal now because IF we stay up, Parky's going to be a wanted man in the summer.

[Prufrock]

Presumably we'll categorically rule out him going anywhere before he leaves at 2:55pm in Leeds on Good Friday.

We'll get a physio in on loan from Forest to replace him.

[BWFC_Insane]

Presumably we'll categorically rule out him going anywhere before he leaves at 2:55pm in Leeds on Good Friday.

We'll get a physio in on loan from Forest to replace him.

And certain posters will tell us we're better off....

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Presumably we'll categorically rule out him going anywhere before he leaves at 2:55pm in Leeds on Good Friday.

We'll get a physio in on loan from Forest to replace him.