We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I shall endeavour to reign in my dislike of statistics. I have no intention of deflating you, or undermining your research. I enjoy your posts and have no issue with you, your posts or your views.

(In my defence I was merely reacting to an observation regarding the bar chart that changed so dramatically on the outcome of one game).

Cool. Sorry.

I'd guess the bar chart changed a lot last week for two reasons. One, last week's scores were very important - Burton rose two places, while our awful result was multiplied by Barnsley's frankly (statistically) unlikely win. Two, because there were only two games left of the season, in effect the results represented half of the remaining variables - so whichever way it goes, you're going to get a big jump, but as it happened it was really rather bad news for Bolton. And I will gladly accept that we didn't need a bar chart to know that...

[Lost Leopard Spot]

I shall endeavour to reign in my dislike of statistics. I have no intention of deflating you, or undermining your research. I enjoy your posts and have no issue with you, your posts or your views.

(In my defence I was merely reacting to an observation regarding the bar chart that changed so dramatically on the outcome of one game).

Cool. Sorry.

I'd guess the bar chart changed a lot last week for two reasons. One, last week's scores were very important - Burton rose two places, while our awful result was multiplied by Barnsley's frankly (statistically) unlikely win. Two, because there were only two games left of the season, in effect the results represented half of the remaining variables - so whichever way it goes, you're going to get a big jump, but as it happened it was really rather bad news for Bolton. And I will gladly accept that we didn't need a bar chart to know that...

There's also the factor of jangled nerves to be considered...
Mine are rock steady. Between now and Monday afternoon I have to merely host my wife's birthday party whilst not being allowed to eat or drink anything except two gallons of vile tasting liquid in order to flush my bowels out in preparation for an instrument to be shoved up my arse, whilst then awaiting the game that I cannot get to because I'll be on emergency telephone on call duty, that will probably (or is that merely possibly) end our latest Championship stint, before taking my old, much loved but rotting car in for its death warrant (otherwise known as its MOT).

Roll on next week...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Good luck with the colonoscopy. You do seem to have things in perspective, which does help.

I can't compete with that sort of weekend but I am doing a 30k charity walk tomorrow, which (because it's miles away) means getting up at 6am to get train/tube to a station that's an annoying mile from the start (with the same, also irksome but possibly more painful, distance at the end). And this the day after my 44th birthday (ie today), which I'm refusing to allow to be overshadowed by those wasteful wazzocks in white. (They managed it on my 39th birthday, when Dougie's dodgy decision to switch formations dropped us out of the play-offs on the final day.)

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Good luck with the colonoscopy. You do seem to have things in perspective, which does help.

I can't compete with that sort of weekend but I am doing a 30k charity walk tomorrow, which (because it's miles away) means getting up at 6am to get train/tube to a station that's an annoying mile from the start (with the same, also irksome but possibly more painful, distance at the end). And this the day after my 44th birthday (ie today), which I'm refusing to allow to be overshadowed by those wasteful wazzocks in white. (They managed it on my 39th birthday, when Dougie's dodgy decision to switch formations dropped us out of the play-offs on the final day.)

Happy boithday to youse....

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Turned out nice again.

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[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Some more

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As usual, these are from the excellent @experimental361: https://experimental361.com/2018/05/06/ ... p-2017-18/

[RusholmeRuffian]

Don’t know what you guys were worried about, those expected goals charts had us safe for over a month now

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Heh! Some more. Here's an all-in-one of each Champo club's age profiles:

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And then this one on long-term trends, using goal difference vs expected goals. The blue line shows the rolling average of a club’s goal difference over the last 10 league games; the red line shows the rolling average of their expected goal difference, based on the quality of chances they’ve created and faced. Blue shaded areas are where goal difference is higher than chances created, suggesting an overachievement; Red shaded areas show the reverse, where the balance of chances was healthier than the actual goal difference, signalling underachievement.

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For us, this is a very clear indication of the three sections of our season. The patterns of other teams are fascinating on this one (see main piece here). Reading and Ipswich have been massively overachieving for ages, which means they'll need to reorganise this summer or face a struggle. Millwall have also defied the odds. These things are interesting when trying to identify teams we might finish above next term, because our newly-promoted neighbours both seem better-equipped than Burton (underachieving most of the season) and Barnsley (underachieving from when Heckingbottom left). Notably, Boro have also got results from very little since Pulis arrived - an expected goal difference hovering just above 0 per game - so if they don't go up, it could be an interesting summer/season.

Finally (for now), for the sake of completeness, our attackers' records. 80% of the division's forwards are in the shaded area. Maybe Blackburn will spend the first six months of next season wondering why Arma's not scoring.

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[Dave Sutton's barnet]

And here's a quick one I knocked up myself, noting minutes played in all competitions.

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Perhaps surprisingly and certainly exhaustingly, Ameobi played the second-most minutes among outfielders. (Kudos to Alnwick for very much making the goalie position his own.) Robinson played more than Vela – again perhaps a surprise, although this includes cup games.

Now here's the same chart with those we've got signed up for next season highlighted in yellow. (The other two are Amos and Turner, who didn't play a first-team minute for us this term.)

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[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Ben Mayhew's done a much nicer version of the above. https://experimental361.com/2018/05/15/ ... p-2017-18/

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Also:

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[jmjhb]

Bottom diagram is quite interesting - there's definite correlation between success and how settled your side was.

Apart from Cardiff, the ultimate outlier - let's call that the Warnock effect.

[Prufrock]

Aye, though I very much suspect the direction of travel there is being successful causes you to need to roll the dice less often.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Bottom diagram is quite interesting - there's definite correlation between success and how settled your side was.

Yeah, stands to reason - "if it ain't bust, don't fix it" vs the desperate bingo machine.

There's a difference between stable and stasis, though. In his notes (via the link) Ben points out that although only two teams used fewer players overall than Preston, Alex Neil only picked an unchanged XI once. I guess that's a balanced squad working hard and rotating efficiently. It's a more sustainable method than Millwall's reliance on a very definite First XI – indeed, they had 13 players who featured in 40%+ of minutes. There was only one point between those two teams this year, but I'd suspect the gap might be wider next time.

[BWFC_Insane]

Bottom diagram is quite interesting - there's definite correlation between success and how settled your side was.

Yeah, stands to reason - "if it ain't bust, don't fix it" vs the desperate bingo machine.

There's a difference between stable and stasis, though. In his notes (via the link) Ben points out that although only two teams used fewer players overall than Preston, Alex Neil only picked an unchanged XI once. I guess that's a balanced squad working hard and rotating efficiently. It's a more sustainable method than Millwall's reliance on a very definite First XI – indeed, they had 13 players who featured in 40%+ of minutes. There was only one point between those two teams this year, but I'd suspect the gap might be wider next time.

Millwall - 2 or 3 nasty injuries to key players at the wrong time and they easily could have been in the bottom 3.

[officer_dibble]

Never in doubt really was it??

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Never in doubt really was it??

Heh!

As you've bumped this thread, I've updated that graphic on player use last season. The players in green are signed up, the ones in red have gone, Sammi's in limbo. The new signings have some minutes to make up, especially if we're going for quality rather than quantity.

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[officer_dibble]

Morais got more minutes than I thought. Quite important when not injured. Still a centre mid light (Vela to step up?) and a left back as well. All big signings.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Millwall 2-0 up at Birmingham at HT, which is suboptimal.

Rotherham 0-0 at QPR at HT.

[DJBlu]

Millwall 2-0 up at Birmingham at HT, which is suboptimal.

Rotherham 0-0 at QPR at HT.

Both Rotherham and Millwall get 3 pts. Lose to Wigan and that my friends is it I reckon.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Millwall 2-0 up at Birmingham at HT, which is suboptimal.

Rotherham 0-0 at QPR at HT.

Both Rotherham and Millwall get 3 pts. Lose to Wigan and that my friends is it I reckon.

Buggery shitwank. 95th-minute goal for Rotherham. Table looks like this.

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