Division Four, 2020-?

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Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:43 pm

Couldn’t help myself having a little sniff around how teams who have been relegated to Division Four have fared over the past decade.

Good news is that nine teams have gone straight back up after one season (Wycombe 2011, Swindon 2012, Scunny 2014, Shrewsbury 2015, Donny and Blackpool 2017, Cov 2018, MK Dons and Bury last year).

Less good is that bouncebackability thins significantly thereafter: only three teams went back up in their second season (Chesterfield and Rochdale 2014, Bury 2015) and only two in their third (Crewe 2012 and Gillingham 2013).

Perhaps interestingly, of these 14 teams repromoted within three years, all but Blackpool, Cov and Crewe went up automatically rather than through the play-offs. In fact, relegated teams don’t tend to reach the play-offs, even unsuccessfully: besides those winners listed above, I can only see Stevenage (failed 2015) in their first season, Southend (failed 2012) and Wycombe (failed 2015) in their second, and four teams (Cheltenham 2012, Pompey 2016, Carlisle 2017, Notts Co 2018) in their third.

In other words, judging by the previous decade, next season we have a 15% chance of automatic promotion, a 5% chance of playoff glory and a 2.5% chance of playoff failure. It’s perhaps also worth noting that three teams (Stockport 2011, Tranmere 2015, Chesterfield 2018 - 7.5%) been immediately relegated out of the league…

Oh and the average finishing position for relegated teams in their first Division Four season is 12.6th.

More info on the following spreadsheet grab. Numbers are division and position (so 5-14 would mean 14th in the Conference or whatever it's called). Green means promoted (from whichever division), orange lost in playoffs, red relegated.
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Rele to D4 v2.jpg
Rele to D4 v2.jpg (177.44 KiB) Viewed 2945 times

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Worthy4England » Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:50 pm

So in summary, we'll shit 'em! :-)

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:33 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:50 pm
So in summary, we'll shit 'em! :-)
Surprisingly high chance of repromotion - basically one team a year goes straight back up. Of course we're hamstrung by embargo in that first season, but on the bright side we've got a big stadium and we were famous relatively recently. :D

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:11 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:33 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:50 pm
So in summary, we'll shit 'em! :-)
Surprisingly high chance of repromotion - basically one team a year goes straight back up. Of course we're hamstrung by embargo in that first season, but on the bright side we've got a big stadium and we were famous relatively recently. :D
How much of an impediment is an embargo in league two? Not much cash being splashed. Squads down there will be propped up by younger lads...I mean it’s not ideal. But not impossible I’d have thought.

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by TonyDomingos » Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:35 pm

Next season, it's highly likely we'll be playing Barrow, a club that hasn't been in the Football League since 1972. That's our level now and we'd better get used to it.
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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Harry Genshaw » Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:37 pm

The top tiers being open when we've a mid table midweek clash with Exeter next February are going to look odd.

Tony - if you think Barrow is a good reminder of where we are, Harrogate Town certainly will be!

Interesting stats DSB - I'm not a betting man but of the 3 likely relegation candidates, Tranmere look best suited to be making an automatic return.
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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Bruce Rioja » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:34 pm

National League

Yeovil Town
Halifax Town
Stockport County
Notts County
Hartlepool United
Torquay United
Aldershot
Wrexham
Chesterfield

------0------

National League North

York City
Chester
Darlington
Hereford

Think on, entitled types. I've seen us play each of the above in league games ;)
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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Worthy4England » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:57 pm

Think last Yeovil game was in the Chumpo and not that long ago...

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Enoch » Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:09 pm

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:34 pm
Think on, entitled types. I've seen us play each of the above in league games ;)

Don't think we ever played them but Rushden & Diamonds were a third tier club not so long ago. Their reincarnation, AFC Rushden & Diamonds, now hack it about in the seventh tier BetVictor Southern Premier Central League.

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:28 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:11 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:33 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:50 pm
So in summary, we'll shit 'em! :-)
Surprisingly high chance of repromotion - basically one team a year goes straight back up. Of course we're hamstrung by embargo in that first season, but on the bright side we've got a big stadium and we were famous relatively recently. :D
How much of an impediment is an embargo in league two? Not much cash being splashed. Squads down there will be propped up by younger lads...I mean it’s not ideal. But not impossible I’d have thought.
How much of an impediment is not being able to pay transfer fees, loan fees or wages over (let's say) £1kpw - when you go into a season with six contracted players, the second-most experienced of whom is Dennis Politic? Well, I can't help but think it's the sort of impediment that would have you praising some managers to the rafters. All this stuff about being a "big club" means nowt when you're down there and unable to spend any money you might have. I'll say it again, while knowing full well you'll disagree: IMO being promoted first-time under embargo in these circumstances would easily stand comparison with Parky's promotion.

Put another way: how have clubs under embargo historically done in League Two? How many have gone down compared to up? How many have - like Pompey, not exactly a tiddler - had to stabilise a while before looking up?

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:48 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:28 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:11 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:33 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:50 pm
So in summary, we'll shit 'em! :-)
Surprisingly high chance of repromotion - basically one team a year goes straight back up. Of course we're hamstrung by embargo in that first season, but on the bright side we've got a big stadium and we were famous relatively recently. :D
How much of an impediment is an embargo in league two? Not much cash being splashed. Squads down there will be propped up by younger lads...I mean it’s not ideal. But not impossible I’d have thought.
How much of an impediment is not being able to pay transfer fees, loan fees or wages over (let's say) £1kpw - when you go into a season with six contracted players, the second-most experienced of whom is Dennis Politic? Well, I can't help but think it's the sort of impediment that would have you praising some managers to the rafters. All this stuff about being a "big club" means nowt when you're down there and unable to spend any money you might have. I'll say it again, while knowing full well you'll disagree: IMO being promoted first-time under embargo in these circumstances would easily stand comparison with Parky's promotion.

Put another way: how have clubs under embargo historically done in League Two? How many have gone down compared to up? How many have - like Pompey, not exactly a tiddler - had to stabilise a while before looking up?
The embargo is harder the higher up you go, because the barriers to success are raised with the restrictions and those barriers are also higher.

In league 2 - how many clubs are paying transfer fees or loan fees or wages above that sort of level?

Its an issue - but I'd say less of an issue in league 2 where some get crowds of 2000 and have to survive within the financial restrictions of turnover that are already implemented down there.....

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Worthy4England » Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:02 pm

^^ That's at least partially bollocks. Chelsea are in a transfer embargo, they just recalled all the stars of tomorrow and are sitting 4th in the Prem...as DSB said we had 2? Grown ups left...

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:47 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:02 pm
^^ That's at least partially bollocks. Chelsea are in a transfer embargo, they just recalled all the stars of tomorrow and are sitting 4th in the Prem...as DSB said we had 2? Grown ups left...
They were - but notably NOT the same restrictions we have - just an inability to register new players. But I guess its relative to expectation. Clearly the top, highest end of the game means clubs have more internal resources ready to cope. But given Chelsea were a few years ago aspiring to win the premiership and champions league and given the gap from that ambition to now I'd argue that relative to their aspiration its a massive hit - but they are also a very specific case - a club in transition. If you hit Liverpool tomorrow with the same restrictions we are under - a squad of 23, no fees or loan fees for 2 years, inability to promote certain players without taking up a squad space, huge wage limits etc....would they win the league by 20 odd points next season? They'd have to be incredibly lucky with injuries etc...

I'd say trying to get out of league 2 with these restrictions will be easier than the same restrictions applied to say West Brom upon premiership promotion next season....

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:13 pm

Any club would rather have an embargo in League 2 than in the Championship - but the League know this, and the restrictions, while not published, are made more stringent the further down you go.

We already can't sign anybody under contract unless their club waives a fee, which I doubt any of our D4 rivals will; I also think we're a little short of goodwill in D3, judging by the complaints made about our punishment. Even if they're willing to let them go, there's still an obligation under contractual law for someone to pay up. Say Nsiala is on £5kpw for his contract - signed as part of a multimillion pound transfer after finishing third in D3 - which still has a year to run. We can't pay more than £1kpw. We have to ask Ipswich to pay £4kpw - £200,000 - to release him, or ask him to give up that money, which is (at our rate) four year's wages.

So the only players we get are damaged goods (like Mellis) or somebody else's players in whom a new manager has so little faith that he's willing to spend some of his budget to get rid of them (like Toto).

We also can't pay loan fees, so literally every other club will be richer than us in that market. They may not choose to pay loan fees, but that's their choice - we don't get one.

Which leaves free transfers. And as I say, at a grand a week, which is less than the average for the division, it's less of an incentive to move - quite aside from persuading people to join a club with the stench of mortality about it, one which has lost an extraordinary number of games over the past three seasons.

And folk expect promotion. Which brings its own pressures. Again: How many clubs in embargo have thrived in D4?

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Worthy4England » Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:26 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:47 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:02 pm
^^ That's at least partially bollocks. Chelsea are in a transfer embargo, they just recalled all the stars of tomorrow and are sitting 4th in the Prem...as DSB said we had 2? Grown ups left...
They were - but notably NOT the same restrictions we have - just an inability to register new players. But I guess its relative to expectation. Clearly the top, highest end of the game means clubs have more internal resources ready to cope. But given Chelsea were a few years ago aspiring to win the premiership and champions league and given the gap from that ambition to now I'd argue that relative to their aspiration its a massive hit - but they are also a very specific case - a club in transition. If you hit Liverpool tomorrow with the same restrictions we are under - a squad of 23, no fees or loan fees for 2 years, inability to promote certain players without taking up a squad space, huge wage limits etc....would they win the league by 20 odd points next season? They'd have to be incredibly lucky with injuries etc...

I'd say trying to get out of league 2 with these restrictions will be easier than the same restrictions applied to say West Brom upon premiership promotion next season....
The reason I said it was partially bollocks is because I recognise it's not the same situation...you seem to be arguing in this post that on the one hand our restrictions are much more severe, whilst at the same time suggesting they won't impact us much. :-)

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:30 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:26 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:47 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:02 pm
^^ That's at least partially bollocks. Chelsea are in a transfer embargo, they just recalled all the stars of tomorrow and are sitting 4th in the Prem...as DSB said we had 2? Grown ups left...
They were - but notably NOT the same restrictions we have - just an inability to register new players. But I guess its relative to expectation. Clearly the top, highest end of the game means clubs have more internal resources ready to cope. But given Chelsea were a few years ago aspiring to win the premiership and champions league and given the gap from that ambition to now I'd argue that relative to their aspiration its a massive hit - but they are also a very specific case - a club in transition. If you hit Liverpool tomorrow with the same restrictions we are under - a squad of 23, no fees or loan fees for 2 years, inability to promote certain players without taking up a squad space, huge wage limits etc....would they win the league by 20 odd points next season? They'd have to be incredibly lucky with injuries etc...

I'd say trying to get out of league 2 with these restrictions will be easier than the same restrictions applied to say West Brom upon premiership promotion next season....
The reason I said it was partially bollocks is because I recognise it's not the same situation...you seem to be arguing in this post that on the one hand our restrictions are much more severe, whilst at the same time suggesting they won't impact us much. :-)
They are more severe in absolute terms of course - but NOT relatively.

In the premiership you're competing with teams spending potentially £200M in a window.

In this league you're competing with a lot of other teams also spending "nowt" - by choice or whatever - its still an easier relative position to manage.

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Worthy4England » Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:21 pm

It only takes a few to spend 100k here n there to potentially make "nowt" a poor investment...

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:02 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:21 pm
It only takes a few to spend 100k here n there to potentially make "nowt" a poor investment...
I only takes a good manager and good decisions to more than compensate for that level of spending. Allardyce managed to do it spectacularly. Parky managed to do it less spectacularly but equally impressively in relative terms.

I think the situation needs a manager who sees an opportunity to overcome the challenges whereas I fear Hill sees the challenges as too much to take on.

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by officer_dibble » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:52 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:02 am
Worthy4England wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:21 pm
It only takes a few to spend 100k here n there to potentially make "nowt" a poor investment...
I only takes a good manager and good decisions to more than compensate for that level of spending. Allardyce managed to do it spectacularly. Parky managed to do it less spectacularly but equally impressively in relative terms.

I think the situation needs a manager who sees an opportunity to overcome the challenges whereas I fear Hill sees the challenges as too much to take on.
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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Athertonian » Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:18 pm

I remember last time we were in the bottom league and it wasn't an easy ride. It's going to take a highly skilled manager to gather a group of players supposedly good enough to get promotion. As much as I'd like a different manager to make that assault, it would appear Mr Hill will once again lead that challenge.
Another concern of mine is, the lack of communication coming from FV. Unlike crooked Anderson who was always piping up, this lot seem to be silent.

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