Division Four, 2020-?

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Bertie Wooster
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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Bertie Wooster » Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:28 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:02 am
Worthy4England wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:21 pm
It only takes a few to spend 100k here n there to potentially make "nowt" a poor investment...
I only takes a good manager and good decisions to more than compensate for that level of spending. Allardyce managed to do it spectacularly. Parky managed to do it less spectacularly but equally impressively in relative terms.

I think the situation needs a manager who sees an opportunity to overcome the challenges whereas I fear Hill sees the challenges as too much to take on.
Yes agree, Hill appears to see the challenges as negatives with everything appearing to be going against him, and he also uses the challenges as weekly excuses for the poor performances & results, and his own poor management.

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Worthy4England » Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:16 pm

Looking back at the opening post, around 20-25% chance of going straight back up. That means a 75-80% chance of not doing so.

I don't doubt for one minute that it's got to be better to have a good manager than a poor one. That'd be plain stupid.

We have no notion whether we'll be competing on wages (least I don't anyhow) for free signing or not. Until we know that I don't think it's any easier to get out of any Division. Salford (and other) have historically rocketed through the non-leagues because they've shelled money out which would suggests to me that money still plays a fairly big part wherever you are in the pyramid.

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Mar » Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:09 am

Well folks money isn't everything and I'm sure we'll have at least some competitive edge in terms of pulling players.

Whilst teams like Barrow may be the new up and comers with a good manager heading into the league, the fact that we've got a massively higher quality stadium and facilities may prove a decisive factor.

I'd like to think our new board have enough to steady the ship and prevent another lower league scrap, god knows we've had enough of them this past decade. 4 relegations in 9 seasons. Let's not make it 5 in 10.

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by boltonboris » Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:47 pm

Isn't our training ground Dog & Duck standard?
"I've got the ball now. It's a bit worn, but I've got it"

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Hoboh » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:37 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:16 pm
Looking back at the opening post, around 20-25% chance of going straight back up. That means a 75-80% chance of not doing so.

I don't doubt for one minute that it's got to be better to have a good manager than a poor one. That'd be plain stupid.

We have no notion whether we'll be competing on wages (least I don't anyhow) for free signing or not. Until we know that I don't think it's any easier to get out of any Division. Salford (and other) have historically rocketed through the non-leagues because they've shelled money out which would suggests to me that money still plays a fairly big part wherever you are in the pyramid.
Do you ever leave %'s out of anything Mr W? :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Worthy4England » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:17 pm

About 3% of the time.

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Bruce Rioja » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:40 pm

Just seen Nicky Hunt queuing up outside Morrison's and looking a bit miffed; turns out he's just been released by Crewe.

I know what we all dream of, but could he do a job for us?
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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by TonyDomingos » Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:21 pm

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:40 pm
Just seen Nicky Hunt queuing up outside Morrison's and looking a bit miffed; turns out he's just been released by Crewe.

I know what we all dream of, but could he do a job for us?

A job in what capacity? Player, manager or CEO? And would Morrison's release him so soon?
Às armas, às armas!
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Às armas, às armas!
Pela Pátria lutar!
Contra os canhões marchar, marchar!

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Bruce Rioja » Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:07 pm

TonyDomingos wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:21 pm
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:40 pm
Just seen Nicky Hunt queuing up outside Morrison's and looking a bit miffed; turns out he's just been released by Crewe.

I know what we all dream of, but could he do a job for us?

A job in what capacity? Player, manager or CEO? And would Morrison's release him so soon?
I noted that he had little difficulty in maintaining a two metre space between himself and those nearest to him :)
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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:04 pm

Updated this little thinkpiece from March. (Remember March?) It's looking at how clubs who'd been relegated to the fourth division have got on in the last 10 years - well, 11 now.

This year's cohort (down at the bottom) were typically spread. Plymouth (3rd) bounced straight back; Bradford (9th) tried to threaten the play-offs; Walsall (12th) were about as mid-table as you can get; and Scunny (20th) were woeful. As I say, that's not unusual: over the last 11 seasons, the average finishing position of teams freshly relegated to the Fourth is now 12.4th.
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Not all bad news, though. As you can see from the lower, recent end of the scale, there's plenty of examples of teams having short stays. Plymouth (relegated 2019) were the 10th in 11 years (and the sixth in four seasons) to bounce straight back, and they were accompanied by Northampton (relegated 2018, up through play-offs in 7th), Swindon (relegated 2017, up as champions) and Crewe (relegated 2016, up as runners-up).

Even so, there have been miserable first-term failures every season: in 2019 Oldham (14th) and Northampton (15th), in 2018 Port Vale (20th) and in 2017 Crewe (17th); in 2016, the four relegated teams finished 8th, 17th, 19th and 20th. You have to earn the right to get out of this league, even with a big ground and fanbase – ask Bradford.

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by officer_dibble » Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:31 pm

Right who is actually any good in this league then? Having been told FGR were one of the favourites I realised I have no appreciation for Other teams in this league. Just read the BN season preview thing online and was surprised at some of the transfers - Hoolahan at Cambridge for example. So those that know, who is any good?

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by GhostoftheBok » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:22 pm

I think Forest Green, Salford, Tranmere and us are seen as the "gimme" teams to be in and about.

As ever in League Two, most teams are much of a muchness and a lot depends on the internals at clubs over the season. This isn't the most stable league in the world and at the moment clubs could start going pop.

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:24 pm

I will have to fcuking hide if we lose to Salford.

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by The_Gun » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:26 pm

officer_dibble wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:31 pm
Right who is actually any good in this league then? Having been told FGR were one of the favourites I realised I have no appreciation for Other teams in this league. Just read the BN season preview thing online and was surprised at some of the transfers - Hoolahan at Cambridge for example. So those that know, who is any good?
Hoolahan was good but he's 38 now, which is old for the type of player he is.

Current outright betting for League 2 looks like this:

Bolton 5/1
Salford 6/1
Exeter 12/1
Mansfield 14/1
Tranmere 14/1
Port Vale 16/1
Cheltenham 16/1

I have no idea whether this is accurate or not, but clearly us and Salford are considered to be significantly better than the pack.

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by GhostoftheBok » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:32 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:24 pm
I will have to fcuking hide if we lose to Salford.
Let's hope that's the only sort of hiding we have to deal with this season.

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by officer_dibble » Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:10 pm

Betting markets misleading as it’s more on who has put money on what. We have more fans...hence why FGR nowhere near. Though I’m struggling with the concept of a team whose name bears no resemblance to the town they are in being a favourite!

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by The_Gun » Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:59 pm

officer_dibble wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:10 pm
Betting markets misleading as it’s more on who has put money on what. We have more fans...hence why FGR nowhere near. Though I’m struggling with the concept of a team whose name bears no resemblance to the town they are in being a favourite!
That's true to an extent, but casual money from fans wouldn't move the market much at all (otherwise Salford wouldn't be second favourites). Price movements will be driven by heavy-hitting, informed punters/syndicates who are guided largely by data.

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:53 pm

officer_dibble wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:10 pm
Betting markets misleading as it’s more on who has put money on what. We have more fans...hence why FGR nowhere near. Though I’m struggling with the concept of a team whose name bears no resemblance to the town they are in being a favourite!
Port Vale and Raith Rovers had their moments... then there’s “The” Arsenal...

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by officer_dibble » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:59 pm

Port Vale. Knew there was one. Not counting a scots team or that other lot either!

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Re: Division Four, 2020-?

Post by LeverEnd » Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:35 pm

officer_dibble wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:59 pm
Port Vale. Knew there was one. Not counting a scots team or that other lot either!
Sounds quaint doesn't it? My 2 visits to Burslem confirm it's anything but!
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