Remaining fixtures

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:26 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:19 pm
While I understand the viewpoint that there's no need to rip up the playbook and start again, it's another one of those where you feel that if he can't start against Harrogate at home, when can he?

Just as an aside, though - and this is the right thread for it, I suppose - I had a quick look at the possession rates of our upcoming opponents, trying to ascertain how many of them might be ball-phobic deep-sitters. I was quite pleased to find that most of our final seven opponents have had majority possession, with only two long-ballers left to face.

Harrogate 50.6% (10th-highest in L2)
Salford 53.1% (2nd)
Grimsby 51.5% (8th)
Carlisle 46.9% (22nd)
Morecambe 44.5% (24th)
Exeter 52.8% (4th)
Crawley 50.0% (13th)

(In case you're wondering, we're top on 54.2%.)
I know that some teams play differently against us anyway, but it brightened my day a little.
And here's the possession stats from the reverse fixtures. :-)

Salford 65% v Bolton 35% - result 2-0 Wanderers (Still not lost at home, Salford - need to bring that run to an end)
Harrogate 61% v Bolton 39% - result 2-1 Wanderers
Grimsby 38% v Bolton 62% - result 0-0
Carlisle 43% v Bolton 57% - result 3-3
Morcambe 44% v Bolton 56% - result 1-1
Exeter 53% v Bolton 47% - result 1-1
Crawley 44% v Bolton 56% - result 1-0 Crawley

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by irie Cee Bee » Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:42 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:26 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:19 pm
While I understand the viewpoint that there's no need to rip up the playbook and start again, it's another one of those where you feel that if he can't start against Harrogate at home, when can he?

Just as an aside, though - and this is the right thread for it, I suppose - I had a quick look at the possession rates of our upcoming opponents, trying to ascertain how many of them might be ball-phobic deep-sitters. I was quite pleased to find that most of our final seven opponents have had majority possession, with only two long-ballers left to face.

Harrogate 50.6% (10th-highest in L2)
Salford 53.1% (2nd)
Grimsby 51.5% (8th)
Carlisle 46.9% (22nd)
Morecambe 44.5% (24th)
Exeter 52.8% (4th)
Crawley 50.0% (13th)

(In case you're wondering, we're top on 54.2%.)
I know that some teams play differently against us anyway, but it brightened my day a little.
And here's the possession stats from the reverse fixtures. :-)

Salford 65% v Bolton 35% - result 2-0 Wanderers (Still not lost at home, Salford - need to bring that run to an end)
Harrogate 61% v Bolton 39% - result 2-1 Wanderers
Grimsby 38% v Bolton 62% - result 0-0
Carlisle 43% v Bolton 57% - result 3-3
Morcambe 44% v Bolton 56% - result 1-1
Exeter 53% v Bolton 47% - result 1-1
Crawley 44% v Bolton 56% - result 1-0 Crawley
Really showing that possession means nothing and bears little correlation as to whether a team wins or not.. Its the goals that count.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:13 pm

A pleasing number of of our goals have come late through our possession tiring out the oppo. But yes, goals are more important than possession.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:04 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:13 pm
A pleasing number of of our goals have come late through our possession tiring out the oppo. But yes, goals are more important than possession.
If we had a bit less possession we’d have more points IMO. We look a poor side when we have high possession IMO but a much better side when it’s more even and we are forced to play at a higher tempo. See Friday vs Monday as an example of that.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Prufrock » Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:52 pm

I mean that might have something to do with the other team trying to attack. What do you suggest, we nudge it forward from kick off, retreat to the edge of our 18 years box and hope curiosity gets the better of them?
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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by TANGODANCER » Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:06 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:52 pm
I mean that might have something to do with the other team trying to attack. What do you suggest, we nudge it forward from kick off, retreat to the edge of our 18 years box and hope curiosity gets the better of them?
They will want to win as much as we do. Winning gains points, losing doesn't lose them. I reckon Harrogate will hassle us from the first whistle. How we react is the relevant factor.
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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:11 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:52 pm
I mean that might have something to do with the other team trying to attack. What do you suggest, we nudge it forward from kick off, retreat to the edge of our 18 years box and hope curiosity gets the better of them?
It's a cunning plan...I'm in. We should hide a few players behind the goalposts whilst we're at it... :-)

In defence of BWFCi's notion, which isn't unreasonable. :-)

Possession
< 40% - P3 W3/D0 - PPG 3
40-44% P2 W2/D0 - PPG 3
45-49% P2 W1/D1 - PPG 2
50-54% P7 W3/D1 - PPG 1.43
55-59% P12 W4/D4 - PPG 1.33
60-64% P7 W2/D2 - PPG 1.14
65-69% P4 W2/D1 - PPG 1.75
> 70% P2 W1/D1 - PPG 2

So kick the bugger to them every opportunity. I see now why Maddison gives it away 46% of the time, we'd be crazy to want the mutherfuckingball!

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by LeverEnd » Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:51 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:11 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:52 pm
I mean that might have something to do with the other team trying to attack. What do you suggest, we nudge it forward from kick off, retreat to the edge of our 18 years box and hope curiosity gets the better of them?
It's a cunning plan...I'm in. We should hide a few players behind the goalposts whilst we're at it... :-)

In defence of BWFCi's notion, which isn't unreasonable. :-)

Possession
< 40% - P3 W3/D0 - PPG 3
40-44% P2 W2/D0 - PPG 3
45-49% P2 W1/D1 - PPG 2
50-54% P7 W3/D1 - PPG 1.43
55-59% P12 W4/D4 - PPG 1.33
60-64% P7 W2/D2 - PPG 1.14
65-69% P4 W2/D1 - PPG 1.75
> 70% P2 W1/D1 - PPG 2

So kick the bugger to them every opportunity. I see now why Maddison gives it away 46% of the time, we'd be crazy to want the mutherfuckingball!
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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Prufrock » Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:53 pm

Correlation =/= causation.

It's a tiny sample size of teams who come and attack us, but the biggest point is it's out of our control. You can't make them come out at you, and anyone who looks at the squad of players we have, and our form over the last 3 months and thinks the answer is to start lumping it forward at every opportunity is medically thick.
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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:58 pm

No, no, not just lumping it. We might win the resultant header! We have to give them the ball...sure fire winner.

We're onto something here...75% of our own goals are when we have less than 47% possession too. That's more than most of our MF have scored!

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:35 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:52 pm
I mean that might have something to do with the other team trying to attack. What do you suggest, we nudge it forward from kick off, retreat to the edge of our 18 years box and hope curiosity gets the better of them?
Quite simply take more risks with the ball. Pass it quicker. One and two touch. If we lose it, then we have the chance to win it back and counter. Don’t waste time passing sideways and backwards because we patently aren’t good enough to draw teams out.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:16 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:35 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:52 pm
I mean that might have something to do with the other team trying to attack. What do you suggest, we nudge it forward from kick off, retreat to the edge of our 18 years box and hope curiosity gets the better of them?
Quite simply take more risks with the ball. Pass it quicker. One and two touch. If we lose it, then we have the chance to win it back and counter. Don’t waste time passing sideways and backwards because we patently aren’t good enough to draw teams out.
As demonstrated by our recent unbeaten run and three manager-of-the-month awards in five? :mrgreen:

(FWIW I agree that we should dial up the risk-reward a little, but "patently aren't good enough" is perhaps an overstatement, no?)

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:26 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:16 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:35 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:52 pm
I mean that might have something to do with the other team trying to attack. What do you suggest, we nudge it forward from kick off, retreat to the edge of our 18 years box and hope curiosity gets the better of them?
Quite simply take more risks with the ball. Pass it quicker. One and two touch. If we lose it, then we have the chance to win it back and counter. Don’t waste time passing sideways and backwards because we patently aren’t good enough to draw teams out.
As demonstrated by our recent unbeaten run and three manager-of-the-month awards in five? :mrgreen:

(FWIW I agree that we should dial up the risk-reward a little, but "patently aren't good enough" is perhaps an overstatement, no?)
No. It’s very very hard when a team is set to draw them out and play through them, and we have consistently struggled in those situations. Because in the odd game we’ve scored late on we shouldn’t con ourselves into thinking that’s a sustainable method game by game. When we play quicker we almost always look a better side and create more chances. So I’d absolutely sacrifice a bit of possession to play faster. I’d say performance vs Colchester and Newport were night and day.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Worthy4England » Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:05 pm

I dunno about conning ourselves with the "scored late on" bit. Whilst we'd like to score 3 in the first fifteen minutes, scoring a winner in the 90th still counts. Minute 90 is just as legitimate as minute 1, just feels a bit scarier, so attracts the "lucky" tag.

Agree entirely more chances is good.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:27 pm

I agree more chances is good; nobody wouldn't. I agree that playing with pace is good, but it depends what you mean.

Against a team with a low block, 10 behind the ball on the edge of their area, just charging at them doesn't help. Where we need pace there is *laterally* – switching from side to side quickly to try to find gaps. I'm not talking about Rico and Baps rolling the ball across the centre-circle, I mean Thomason/Williams/Lee pinging it from one side to our opposite full-back/winger to try to find a gap. And if they don't, recycle and go again - quickly.

We've had plenty of bus-parkers, and sometimes the only way to beat them is with patience. It makes me nervous but shooting gormlessly from distance or Lobbing It In The Mixer would make me angry, because both of those are exactly what that sort of opponent wants: low-percentage chance creation. Those phalanx defences are by their very organisation ("knots on a rope" with no gaps between defenders) drawn toward the ball - spaces appear by switching where it is, more than by trying to dribbling through them.

When we've beaten plenty of teams who've tried it, saying we "patently aren't good enough" strikes me as hyperbole. If we weren't good enough we wouldn't have beaten Walsall or Barrow or Southend or Vale or Scunny or Orient or Stevenage and we'd be 14 points worse off in 15th place. The league table seems to suggest that more often than not, we patently *are* good enough.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Mar » Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:03 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:27 pm
I agree more chances is good; nobody wouldn't. I agree that playing with pace is good, but it depends what you mean.

Against a team with a low block, 10 behind the ball on the edge of their area, just charging at them doesn't help. Where we need pace there is *laterally* – switching from side to side quickly to try to find gaps. I'm not talking about Rico and Baps rolling the ball across the centre-circle, I mean Thomason/Williams/Lee pinging it from one side to our opposite full-back/winger to try to find a gap. And if they don't, recycle and go again - quickly.

We've had plenty of bus-parkers, and sometimes the only way to beat them is with patience. It makes me nervous but shooting gormlessly from distance or Lobbing It In The Mixer would make me angry, because both of those are exactly what that sort of opponent wants: low-percentage chance creation. Those phalanx defences are by their very organisation ("knots on a rope" with no gaps between defenders) drawn toward the ball - spaces appear by switching where it is, more than by trying to dribbling through them.

When we've beaten plenty of teams who've tried it, saying we "patently aren't good enough" strikes me as hyperbole. If we weren't good enough we wouldn't have beaten Walsall or Barrow or Southend or Vale or Scunny or Orient or Stevenage and we'd be 14 points worse off in 15th place. The league table seems to suggest that more often than not, we patently *are* good enough.
I like the logic you're working with here when thinking about addressing the bus parkers. Personally I think this is where we are going to see real benefits from signing a tall forward or someone like Maddison. Someone who can hit a threatening shot from distance or out muscle some centre backs to unsettle a defence that are well drilled.

We don't seem a very creative side but we are very well drilled at defence, passing and ball retention. I don't think we can, without issue, spray the ball side to side to create the openings. Sometimes I feel we need to get those different thought processes going on in the defenders head and make them think are they having to face a threatening cross or face a shot from distance to hopefully open up those opportunities. The type of striker that Doyle is doesn't seem to make me think he would win challenges aerially against players equivalent to Santos but would be more effective on low crosses and passes to feet. I think set pieces wise this works are we have had players like Santos, Delaney and Taft offering the height consideration but in general play I suspect we're all too obvious going to hold onto possession and wait for the ideal opportunity.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Worthy4England » Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:20 pm

Still feels a bit of a baby out with the bathwater conversation at the moment. We keep harking back to Colchester as the "need to make changes because" reason, despite the long unbeaten run that was a part of what went previous...yes the performance was much better against Newport and we can probably feel aggrieved that we didn't win, but that wasn't the fault of the system, that was down to the inability of individuals to convert gilt edged chances. Sure, if it continues, then there's something to address. If we win our next two, it'll be largely forgotten, until the next time there's a sub-par.

Sub-par could also occur "moving it fast from front to back."

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by TonyDomingos » Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:57 pm

FT Mansfield 1-1 Newport. Helpful.
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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:03 pm

TonyDomingos wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:57 pm
FT Mansfield 1-1 Newport. Helpful.
Aye. I thought this was far from our best chance of others dropping points, so let's hope it signals the start of a good weekend for us.

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Re: Remaining fixtures

Post by irie Cee Bee » Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:42 pm

Yup. We need to take care of our business to ensure that its a good weekend. Easier said than done as Harrogate seem up for it tomorrow.

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