Can we Endeavour to solve the Oxford Puzzle? Away to The Uni, Sat 12 Feb, 3-0'clock.

[TANGODANCER]

Amidst the " City of Dreaming Spires" to (almost) quote Matthew Arnold, lie 38 colleges of knowledge in the City of Oxford. Surely such a Morse(l) of learning should see its football team graduating to the greatest of heights? Can Bolton then, proud possessors of but one University, be overawed by such greatness? Not on your life...we're on a roll and fear no team. What then can we expect from this crossword of the Times? Bring them on..

[The_Gun]

Hopefully we see Evatt utilise our newly bolstered squad a bit more for this one. I’d like to see Lee in for Dempsey, possibly George J in for Aimson and maybe either Sadlier or Dad Bod start ahead of Dapo.

Perhaps Brommers, DSB or Ghost can give us a bit more on Oxford, but by reputation they are a ‘footballing’ side, which I don’t think is necessarily a bad thing for us.

As Tango says, we shouldn’t fear any team right now, and I can see us grinding out another 2-1 victory on Saturday.

[Bruce Rioja]

Hopefully we see Evatt utilise our newly bolstered squad a bit more for this one. I’d like to see Lee in for Dempsey, possibly George J in for Aimson and maybe either Sadlier or Dad Bod start ahead of Dapo.

I think I'd leave Dempsey and Aimson where they are. Charlton really didn't let Dempsey (amongst others) get into his stride on Tuesday and I'm interested to see what he can do against a side who I suspect will allow him a little more room. I really cannot see any reason as to why anyone would want to rest Aimson. Afolayan though, definitely. He looks like he's at the tipping point whereby he'll start to burn-out unless he's given a rest. Further, if needed, we know he's the sort of player who can do more damage to the opposition by coming on for the last 15 minutes than most can do in 90.

[BWFC_Insane]

Hopefully we see Evatt utilise our newly bolstered squad a bit more for this one. I’d like to see Lee in for Dempsey, possibly George J in for Aimson and maybe either Sadlier or Dad Bod start ahead of Dapo.

I think I'd leave Dempsey and Aimson where they are. Charlton really didn't let Dempsey (amongst others) get into his stride on Tuesday and I'm interested to see what he can do against a side who I suspect will allow him a little more room. I really cannot see any reason as to why anyone would want to rest Aimson. Afolayan though, definitely. He looks like he's at the tipping point whereby he'll start to burn-out unless he's given a rest. Further, if needed, we know he's the sort of player who can do more damage to the opposition by coming on for the last 15 minutes than most can do in 90.

Personally…..In the system we are playing I’d have Johnston in for Aimson absolutely. Especially against a quick and mobile Oxford side (at least they were at our place). But also because whilst I thought defensively Aimson did a good job he looks completely out of place on the left hand side of the back three and lost the ball a lot. In a back four I’d have Aimson over Johnston any day.

I’d also say Lee if fit starts as he’s our best midfield player. And Dempsey didn’t look settled in yet.

Id be tempted to start Bodvarrson for Dapo Saturday. But we will see.

[Prufrock]

I'd have Johnstone back in in a heartbeat. Aimson did a manful job and good to know he can do it if needed but we lost a lot going forward every time we went left as he's uncomfortable on the ball out there. Slowed things down, and often turned back and lost it.

Though Dempsey struggled at 10. Certainly not writing him off but Lee is fit and suits that roll better at the moment. Wouldn't surprise me to see one of MJ/Morley rotated and Dempsey dropping deeper just given the number of games.

I'm also not convinced Dapo is "burnt out" rather just didn't have a great game. He looked knackered in early Jan but then didn't start against Ipswich (came on for 20) or Shrewsbury (came on at half time) for a combined 75 mins in 18 days then an electric 72 mins against Sunderland, good 76 v Cambridge, quietish 66 v Morecambe and quiet 72 v Charlton.

We've got options, which is great, and wouldn't surprise me to see someone else come in. But I'd still pick him for this one against a team more likely to leave space in behind.

[TANGODANCER]

In fairness, it's still a little early to see exactly what impact our new signings can have. They all, Morley, Dempsey, Bod, Sadlier need to fit into a side already functioning well. We're a strong squad with a great bench and already there are signs that players like Bodvarsson (a well-capped international player) can make us even more resilient so that Dapo, even Charles and co can be rested a little in a rather exhausting period. Exciting times indeed. Marlon the boy Fossey has already hit the ground running

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Perhaps Brommers, DSB or Ghost can give us a bit more on Oxford, but by reputation they are a ‘footballing’ side, which I don’t think is necessarily a bad thing for us.

Luckily, Experimental 361 did some analysis just on Tuesday (so before the midweek round).
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∆ In terms of shots taken minus, they should be third.
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∆ In terms of shots taken per goal scored, they're also top three or four. Much of that is presumably down to Matt Taylor – only Cole Stockton, Ross Stewart and Michael Smith have scored more than his 14:
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∆ Only one assist, so we know what's on his mind when he gets the ball. He gets 49% of his shots on target and puts 23% of them in the net.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

At the other end...
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∆ They're hardly under siege – only four teams average fewer shots allowed (X axis). However, unlike Rotherham, they're fairly mid-table for actually letting those efforts go in (Y axis) – over the season, only a shade better than us and struggling Crewe. They've conceded 38 in 31 games (we're 39 in 30) – of the nine teams above us, only Sunderland have conceded more (43, of which six were at ours).
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∆ An expected goals graph, mainly to wind up Pru, but it does show that they should be doing better than they are. Ropy keeper?

[Prufrock]

I know that you're but I don't have a problem with it used like that

It's not a stat, but I think it's a useful illustration that is better than a "by eye" assessment when used along side things like shots taken/concede and more so goals scored/conceded when considering teams' performance across a large number of games.

So crack on

[Prufrock]

Also backs up the point I've been making all along that Rotherham are by far the best team in the division and the Pies aren't much better than the pack.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Good to hear it Pru. A bit more, non-xG.

They're the third-best home team (in terms of total points) but away from home they're off the promotion pace, down in 10th (below all the other eight teams above us plus, curiously, Lincoln). That fits with their defeat at ours, albeit not great news for us this weekend.

They're neither unbeatable not impregnable at home, though. Wigan (3-2) and Plymouth (3-1) have both won there. They've also shipped two (but scored three) in each of their last two home games, to Wednesday and Pompey; in each case they need late winners after falling behind. Wednesday went 1-0 and 2-1 up, while Pompey promptly overcame an early concession (and red card) to be 2-1 up. Oxford also needed a late leveller at home to Cheltenham, and among the other visitors to have scored there are Fleetwood, Morecambe, Accy and Lincoln, so this is no brick wall we're facing.

Style-wise, their stats are very similar to ours. They have more marginally possession than us – 56.1%, which is 3rd in the division, to our 55.7%, which is 5th. Digging deeper, more similarities. They've registered the 4th-highest number of moves with 10+ passes (we're 3rd). For "build-up attacks" – open-play moves with 10+ passes ending in either a shot at least a touch in the box – they're 3rd and we're 4th. They're 6th for passes per move (2.97, we're 3rd with 3.13).

Our pass completion is higher (77%, 2nd, vs 74.3%, 7th), which suggests they go riskier/longer more often. (While they're hardly a bunch of oxen, they're also less shit than us in the air, winning 23.6 aeriel duels per game (11th) to our 15.6 (23rd)).

And indeed, a further snoop at relevant stats seems to back that up: unlike many "pure" possession teams like McDons, they're only 13th slowest for "direct speed" (literally metres per second upfield in their passing moves) – we're 7th slowest. Furthermore, and perhaps most surprisingly given most of the previous stats, only three teams have had more "direct attacks" – that's an open-play move starting in your own half, having at least 50% of movement towards the opposition’s goal, and ending in a shot or a touch in the opposition box – while again we're firmly mid-table in 13th.

So in short: they're a lot like us, but over the course of the season have also shown themselves capable of... I hesitate to say "direct" football because it can seem pejorative to some, but that's what the stats suggest. Now, sometimes things can change because of a new manager, but Karl Robinson's been ey-wacking there for a month shy of four years now, so I just think they have decided when to sit and when to strike.

It looks like a fascinating game and probably good to watch. I'm glad I'm going.

[Harry Genshaw]

We've been on the right side of several games this season, matches that could easily have gone either way. Oxford at home was one of those. During this recent good run, Sunderland aside, our opponents could be forgiven for thinking they've been a little hard done to. Even more so re the away fixtures.

We can win at Oxford but I expect we'll need to play much better than we did at Shrewsbury and Morecambe AND have luck on our side. A bridge too far for me. 3-1 to Oxford, reality kicks in again.

[Worthy4England]

After considering all the presented evidence. We'll shit 'em. 0-1 Whites.

[BWFC_Insane]

I'd have Johnstone back in in a heartbeat. Aimson did a manful job and good to know he can do it if needed but we lost a lot going forward every time we went left as he's uncomfortable on the ball out there. Slowed things down, and often turned back and lost it.

Though Dempsey struggled at 10. Certainly not writing him off but Lee is fit and suits that roll better at the moment. Wouldn't surprise me to see one of MJ/Morley rotated and Dempsey dropping deeper just given the number of games.

I'm also not convinced Dapo is "burnt out" rather just didn't have a great game. He looked knackered in early Jan but then didn't start against Ipswich (came on for 20) or Shrewsbury (came on at half time) for a combined 75 mins in 18 days then an electric 72 mins against Sunderland, good 76 v Cambridge, quietish 66 v Morecambe and quiet 72 v Charlton.

We've got options, which is great, and wouldn't surprise me to see someone else come in. But I'd still pick him for this one against a team more likely to leave space in behind.

A counter point on strikers is that we are bringing on the big lads as the opposition tires. Yet I think Dapo coming on with 25 left to run at tiring defenders could be murder.

Dapo and Charles are the best pair right now but I do think we need to find a way to get Bod in and also to have a bigger change up front.

[Bruce Rioja]

Personally…..In the system we are playing I’d have Johnston in for Aimson absolutely. Especially against a quick and mobile Oxford side (at least they were at our place). But also because whilst I thought defensively Aimson did a good job he looks completely out of place on the left hand side of the back three and lost the ball a lot. In a back four I’d have Aimson over Johnston any day.

Do you think he'll go with a three or a four? Saturday's going to be a busy afternoon for our defence and I'd be happy to see us try to sure-up for a point. The reason that they're 11 points clear of us is principally because they've scored 10 more goals than we have, including the six we put past Sunderland.

A point at Oxford will be a very good point indeed, I reckon.

[BWFC_Insane]

Personally…..In the system we are playing I’d have Johnston in for Aimson absolutely. Especially against a quick and mobile Oxford side (at least they were at our place). But also because whilst I thought defensively Aimson did a good job he looks completely out of place on the left hand side of the back three and lost the ball a lot. In a back four I’d have Aimson over Johnston any day.

Do you think he'll go with a three or a four? Saturday's going to be a busy afternoon for our defence and I'd be happy to see us try to sure-up for a point. The reason that they're 11 points clear of us is principally because they've scored 10 more goals than we have, including the six we put past Sunderland.

A point at Oxford will be a very good point indeed, I reckon.

I imagine he will stick with the three at the back given we’ve 5 wins and 1 draw with that system.

Balls to a draw. We aren’t going down now. And realistically these are the games we have to win if we want even a push at the top six.

Go for the win. We might lose. It wouldn’t surprise me. But I doubt we will go to Oxford and sit it out for a 0-0 so yeah…

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Balls to a draw. We aren’t going down now. And realistically these are the games we have to win if we want even a push at the top six.

Attaboy. I like the February Insano.

[Worthy4England]

Go for the win. We might lose. It wouldn’t surprise me. But I doubt we will go to Oxford and sit it out for a 0-0 so yeah…

That's fcuked it! 0-0 it is!

[The_Gun]

Yeah we would go eight points behind Oxford with a game in hand if we win on Saturday, so feck settling for a draw.

The only one of our remaining fixtures where on paper you might say we'd be happy with a draw would be Wigan away, but obviously we ain't going there to draw...

[GhostoftheBok]

Seriously difficult game. Their midfield is one of the best in the division and they have a very tidy striker.

Our two most promising new additions have been running themselves into the ground for a few games now.

A lot will come down to whether our most influential players can still run for 70-90 minutes and I think giving Lee a total break was entirely the right move on that front. He comes in totally fresh and can give us a constant in the side that we can make changes around and still have someone setting the tone. Lee back n a '10' all day for me due to that, but Evatt may feel differently.

I think we can cause their defence serious problems and the game will come down to how we cope down the spine and how well we exploit wide areas, but we'll see.