League One, 2022/23

[GhostoftheBok]

Can we factor in Shit Pitch?

Beats having to constantly factor in shit players.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Can we factor in Shit Pitch?

Beats having to constantly factor in shit players.

In all seriousness, I was thinking this the other day. Truth be told, Evatt is now operating without 2/3rds of what had become his first-choice defence. But these days we can wheel in a Toal or Aimson rather than a Taft or Greenidge.

[BWFC_Insane]

Can we factor in Shit Pitch?

I think the pitch might help us in that we'll stop trying to fanny about so much.

In more technical terms we'll not try and play the extra pass as much (I note Iles was also musing on this).

I do worry more about how it could lead to more injuries though.

[Worthy4England]

To Pru's point, it sorta doesn't work - if we hit the average increase for Mid-Jan to end of season, from the previous 2 years, we'd increase by about 82% - which would mean we'd get 3.1 ppg between now and the end of the season. I'm not a betting man, but I think I'd take that one as a "not happening"...

Hence needing to weed out the variables, as I mentioned in my previous post. You need to be able to factor out things like squad development, injuries, underperformance of XG, etc in order to get to any kind of usable baseline to work from.

I mean it's doable as a thought exercise (I may set my retired actuary on it, as he gets a kick out of unusual tasks), but at an estimate it's a proper analysts' two weeks' work. You'd earn your professional fee, certainly.

Of course it was never meant to be any sort of comprehensive analysis. Just that your assertion that Plymouth and Sheffield are in a very solid position with respect to the likelihood of us catching them, is pretty well founded. It's going to take a fairly hefty dip on their part - much larger than Wigan/Rotherham dipped last year and an absolutely herculean effort on our part. If I'm a betting man, I'm putting nowt on top 2 for us...

[GhostoftheBok]

In all seriousness, I was thinking this the other day. Truth be told, Evatt is now operating without 2/3rds of what had become his first-choice defence. But these days we can wheel in a Toal or Aimson rather than a Taft or Greenidge.

They're doing a good job at evolving the squad, we're just 6 months behind where I'd like us to be - which in football terms rounds up to a year.

We're doing business now we should have (and wanted to get) done in the summer, but that's the reality of the industry.

What's promising is that we are now doing it. When I did a proper work up of us in the summer for my own benefit I was coming back with needing the kinds of players we have added (I'll have mentioned the types on here, I'd imagine).

We're 3 shy of where I wanted us to be by the end of this window and the fact we didn't get a couple more done is why I thought we'd be off the pace.

I'm excited to see who we get in this week. I do wonder if we might not see Kacha leave if we get certain deals done.

[GhostoftheBok]

Of course it was never meant to be any sort of comprehensive analysis. Just that your assertion that Plymouth and Sheffield are in a very solid position with respect to the likelihood of us catching them, is pretty well founded. It's going to take a fairly hefty dip on their part - much larger than Wigan/Rotherham dipped last year and an absolutely herculean effort on our part. If I'm a betting man, I'm putting nowt on top 2 for us...

Yeah, it's all just head-gaming and that "nowt on us for top 2" has been my feeling since the summer. As I said immediately prior, we are 6 months behind on the work we needed to do; but there's no blame attached there. Chris is working on very, very tight budgets and it's arguably something of a miracle he's only 6 months back and not 12.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

What's promising is that we are now doing it. When I did a proper work up of us in the summer for my own benefit I was coming back with needing the kinds of players we have added (I'll have mentioned the types on here, I'd imagine).

The one you mentioned that didn't happen is a powerful midfielder - a Tyreeq Bakinson.
.

I do wonder if we might not see Kacha leave if we get certain deals done.

Question is, to where? Given we initially couldn't afford him, then got him anyway when Amaechi git injured, I'd assume he's on one of the larger wedges. So who takes that on, and would suit him? I guess we could part-fund wages, but it's not like Evatt hates him.

Mind, I wouldn't have Sadlier down as moving to the league's 92nd club...

[GhostoftheBok]

Question is, to where? Given we initially couldn't afford him, then got him anyway when Amaechi git injured, I'd assume he's on one of the larger wedges. So who takes that on, and would suit him? I guess we could part-fund wages, but it's not like Evatt hates him.

Back to Paderborn, potentially.

[GhostoftheBok]

The one you mentioned that didn't happen is a powerful midfielder - a Tyreeq Bakinson.

Also didn't get a proper 10 or a rapid, direct striker. I imagine I mentioned Elliot Anderson and Tyreece Simpson as potential models of the "type" we should be looking at.

[jmjhb]

The one you mentioned that didn't happen is a powerful midfielder - a Tyreeq Bakinson.

Also didn't get a proper 10 or a rapid, direct striker. I imagine I mentioned Elliot Anderson and Tyreece Simpson as potential models of the "type" we should be looking at.

If you could sign 3 players this window, who would they be? Realistic obviously, we'd all love Mbappe and Haaland up-front.

[GhostoftheBok]

Three realistic ones? Yikes.

Owen Moxon for a fee from Carlisle.
Elliot Anderson on loan from Toon (I can't see the budget stretching to a permanent here like Assal).
Shayne Lavery for a fee from Blackpool.

[Worthy4England]

Three realistic ones? Yikes.

Owen Moxon for a fee from Carlisle.
Elliot Anderson on loan from Toon (I can't see the budget stretching to a permanent here like Assal).
Shayne Lavery for a fee from Blackpool.

Would one of those be a "10?"

[GhostoftheBok]

Would one of those be a "10?"

Moxon can dominate a midfield and score goals. He's raw (despite being 25 tomorrow), but Carlisle have done a superb job with their data-driven recruitment in identifying him and he can adapt to a higher level. I expected him to need 18 months in League Two, but he's just exploded.

Anderson would be your 10. Superb in all attacking areas and works hard.

Lavery is similar to Dion, but younger and quicker. I think he'd score more goals for us than Dion does and I'd love to see them both pushing each other for a starting role. Lavery is a better player, I think; but he's been a bit let down by Blackpool this season. Contract expires in 6 months and Blackpool have yet to offer to trigger his 1 year extension.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Also didn't get a proper 10 or a rapid, direct striker. I imagine I mentioned Elliot Anderson and Tyreece Simpson as potential models of the "type" we should be looking at.

Perhaps interesting to note that Tyreece Simpson isn't getting many minutes at Huddersfield. He was injured, got a few late sub outings during December, but seems to have drifted out of the picture this month - while Town have signed two strikers, Florian Kamberi and Martyn Waghorn (borrowed from Cov).

[GhostoftheBok]

Dennis Politic came off the bench for Vale tonight. Picked the ball up a couple of times very early and tried a dribble. Lost his balance in the box once and then gave away a simple pass. After that he stopped looking for the ball and did nothing.

A shame. I was hoping to see a good cameo.

[Bruce Rioja]

Dennis Politic came off the bench for Vale tonight. Picked the ball up a couple of times very early and tried a dribble. Lost his balance in the box once and then gave away a simple pass. After that he stopped looking for the ball and did nothing.

A shame. I was hoping to see a good cameo.

Could've done with a draw ideally in that game too. Booooooo, to Dennis Politic.

[Worthy4England]

Of course it was never meant to be any sort of comprehensive analysis. Just that your assertion that Plymouth and Sheffield are in a very solid position with respect to the likelihood of us catching them, is pretty well founded. It's going to take a fairly hefty dip on their part - much larger than Wigan/Rotherham dipped last year and an absolutely herculean effort on our part. If I'm a betting man, I'm putting nowt on top 2 for us...

Yeah, it's all just head-gaming and that "nowt on us for top 2" has been my feeling since the summer. As I said immediately prior, we are 6 months behind on the work we needed to do; but there's no blame attached there. Chris is working on very, very tight budgets and it's arguably something of a miracle he's only 6 months back and not 12.

I was struggling with this yesterday and couldn't quite put my digit upon it. When you look at where we've dropped points (and yup I know every team will drop points), the squad we have is, to my mind, "capable" of getting more points than it has. The wins look pretty "logical" Wycombe, Morecambe, Charlton, MKD, Peterborough, Accrington, Lincoln, Burton, Fleetwood, Exeter, Barnsley and Pompey. The only real outlier is probably Barnsley (a) which was affected by a sending off, but a pretty good performance

Looking at the draws, Ipswich, Barnsley, Derby, Plymouth - you could see those potentially as draws given the squads the teams have and how they're performing - Ipswich still looks like a decent away point..Port Vale, Bristol, Cambridge and Lincoln all feel like we could have done better with the resources we have.

The losses - Sheffield and Plymouth - I think you say "yeah, I get it," - much less so Cheltenham, Forest Green, Oxford and Shrewsbury,,,

I guess where I'm headed, is that's 20 points left on the table. I'm not sure our current squad/squad depth should have left all 20 up for grabs, bag half of those (not beyond the realms of possibility) and we'd be 1 point adrift of Sheffield with all to play for...

[GhostoftheBok]

I was struggling with this yesterday and couldn't quite put my digit upon it. When you look at where we've dropped points (and yup I know every team will drop points), the squad we have is, to my mind, "capable" of getting more points than it has. The wins look pretty "logical" Wycombe, Morecambe, Charlton, MKD, Peterborough, Accrington, Lincoln, Burton, Fleetwood, Exeter, Barnsley and Pompey. The only real outlier is probably Barnsley (a) which was affected by a sending off, but a pretty good performance

Looking at the draws, Ipswich, Barnsley, Derby, Plymouth - you could see those potentially as draws given the squads the teams have and how they're performing - Ipswich still looks like a decent away point..Port Vale, Bristol, Cambridge and Lincoln all feel like we could have done better with the resources we have.

The losses - Sheffield and Plymouth - I think you say "yeah, I get it," - much less so Cheltenham, Forest Green, Oxford and Shrewsbury,,,

I guess where I'm headed, is that's 20 points left on the table. I'm not sure our current squad/squad depth should have left all 20 up for grabs, bag half of those (not beyond the realms of possibility) and we'd be 1 point adrift of Sheffield with all to play for...

You get into intangibles.

I was pretty vocal in the summer that we needed to get players in in attack and midfield to give people a kick up the arse.

We've too many players who look comfortable being back-up and the lads who play don't look bothered enough when they don't play well. It could be confirmation bias on my part, but I feel pretty strongly that we were always going to underperform going forward for that reason.

With how we play, if the forwards aren't on it it also means we concede more goals; because a lot of our defending is the press. We'd have been much better all over the park if we'd signed another striker in the summer and brushed off some of that complacency comfort causes.

[BWFC_Insane]

Of course it was never meant to be any sort of comprehensive analysis. Just that your assertion that Plymouth and Sheffield are in a very solid position with respect to the likelihood of us catching them, is pretty well founded. It's going to take a fairly hefty dip on their part - much larger than Wigan/Rotherham dipped last year and an absolutely herculean effort on our part. If I'm a betting man, I'm putting nowt on top 2 for us...

Yeah, it's all just head-gaming and that "nowt on us for top 2" has been my feeling since the summer. As I said immediately prior, we are 6 months behind on the work we needed to do; but there's no blame attached there. Chris is working on very, very tight budgets and it's arguably something of a miracle he's only 6 months back and not 12.

I was struggling with this yesterday and couldn't quite put my digit upon it. When you look at where we've dropped points (and yup I know every team will drop points), the squad we have is, to my mind, "capable" of getting more points than it has. The wins look pretty "logical" Wycombe, Morecambe, Charlton, MKD, Peterborough, Accrington, Lincoln, Burton, Fleetwood, Exeter, Barnsley and Pompey. The only real outlier is probably Barnsley (a) which was affected by a sending off, but a pretty good performance

Looking at the draws, Ipswich, Barnsley, Derby, Plymouth - you could see those potentially as draws given the squads the teams have and how they're performing - Ipswich still looks like a decent away point..Port Vale, Bristol, Cambridge and Lincoln all feel like we could have done better with the resources we have.

The losses - Sheffield and Plymouth - I think you say "yeah, I get it," - much less so Cheltenham, Forest Green, Oxford and Shrewsbury,,,

I guess where I'm headed, is that's 20 points left on the table. I'm not sure our current squad/squad depth should have left all 20 up for grabs, bag half of those (not beyond the realms of possibility) and we'd be 1 point adrift of Sheffield with all to play for...

Yeah I agree. Its frustrating. As good as its been to see us on a run where we don't concede and look a team that's really hard to beat its tough to not go back to games we threw points away in through poor finishing or just generally being sloppy.

We are probably only 6 or so points way from really being able to have a good run at the top 2.

I think probably the points dropped come down to a mix of Evatt messing the team about, injuries and just needing that extra bit of quality. And more I look at it more I think an in form Dapo would have made the difference and is one of the ones we got who hasn't really reached their capability. Bod another but injury problems maybe excuse that. Charles probably another although he's improved of late.

[TANGODANCER]

We are probably only 6 or so points way from really being able to have a good run at the top 2.

Que sera sera. Seven points as it stands, and that's the third top. Plymouth Sheffield and Ipswich are sailing away from the rest and barring something silly will probably be uncatchable. Derby, on the same points as us, have a game in hand, Barnsley have two games in hand and the wolf pack are still within howling distance. I'm no pessimist, but the play-offs are our realistic target at best. What others might do to re-shape the table we can't predict, but to even achieve play-offfs we'll have to win almost everything and hope for favourable winds and that means starting in three days time with a tough away game. Batten down the hatches...