A Shrewd Idea...Home v Shrewsbury Sat 22nd April 3'O'clock.

[TANGODANCER]

Never too soon to look ahead, so.......Shrews are moles, tiny creatures who live in holes, but it won't be that sort who visit us at the Unibol this Saturday. We can probably expect a reversal of their current poor form and another battle-royal from mid-table Shrewsbury. We have three home fixtures in a row starting with this one, which should be an encouraging sign for the Super Whites. It would still not be such a shrewd idea to take things for granted....Let's go with the pre-match then...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

At one point, Shrewsbury looked like justifying my faith - or perhaps fear - that they could be dark horses for the play-offs: Steve Cotterill’s a drill sergeant who gets teams organised, and they seemed only an ugly bugger up front shy of a worrying unit. So when they went 8th in mid-February after six wins on the spin took them to within three points of the dotted line, they seemed set to have a say.

It’s all gone tits-up since, though. The 12 games since Valentine’s Day have been DLWDLWLLLLDL, with April lowlights including a 6-0 leathering at Charlton and a 3-0 home loss to Posh. They have, however, put up better shows in the last three games, against teams above them – losing 2-1 at Barnsley, drawing 1-1 with Pompey and losing agonisingly 2-1 at home to Plymouth after leading until the three-quarter mark.

They haven’t kept a clean sheet since February, so it’d be handy if they continued that – but then, we were ahead at theirs with 15 minutes to go…

[BWFC_Insane]

We are playing three teams at home who we are expected to beat who all for various reasons have little to lose.

The positives are that if we play to our ability and take our chances I think we are very capable of winning all three.

The risks are playing like we have done at home in our last few games where we’ve been incredibly poor all round and struggled to really get going. The other risk is we simply cannot afford to be trying to see out 1-0’s against these teams who can like Cambridge just throw everything at it late on and we will no doubt get nervy.

We need to play these games with real determination from the off. Score goals. Then we can do the keep the ball stuff. But let’s not get clever till the games are won. And let’s start quickly. I always say you can basically determine our performance levels after the first ten minutes and more or less that is the case now more than ever. Sloppy and slow ten minutes and we usually struggle big time.

Get at them, want it, fight for it and then control it.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Can't disagree with you on most of the above, BWFCi, but I'm always a bit wary of the idea that having nothing to play for makes a team relax into being world-beaters. I think it's especially false of "tough nuts" teams, like when Tony Pulis's Stoke would get to 40 points then go on holiday.

Barring Voderman-arousingly unlikely maths, Shrewsbury (12th) and Fleetwood (13th) will finish between 10th and 15th, and they're midtable for a reason - namely inconsistency. Shrews got 8pts from a possible 33, then 18/18, then 9/36; this month alone, Fleetwood have put five past Accy but lost at Cambridge. Yes, that means they can both win – but it also means they can, and do, both lose.

Accy's a different thing, IMO. While I'm generally dubious about jumping at shadows, I do agree that sometimes relegation-haunted teams can play out of their skins; at this level, players are often fighting for their livelihoods and sometimes they even realise it. Currently three points from safety, with a goal difference so bad it's essentially four points, they face a tough trip to Pompey on Saturday and could, if that day's results go against them, then be all but mathematically relegated by a loss at ours. While it couldn't happen to a nicer team, barring Morecambe, that kind of threat can sometimes be a last-gasp inspiration.

But all things told, we should – should – beat all three.

[Worthy4England]

We should always assume the team we're playing is good and can win, unless we're right on top of it. What's in front of us needs to be beaten.

Look at the three, only Accrington are a real goal sink, but we've already had two wins one from a 2-0 defecit and one where we didn't really seal it until late on (albeit looked reasonably comfortable). They've still conceded fewer goals than Burton, who we played pretty recently.

Shrewsbury have already beaten us, scoring 3 goals on the way and we managed a 2-1 win v Fleetwood (I'm trying to recall the game, but I don't think we were "stellar")

Fleetwood have only conceded 2 more than Plymouth and Shrewsbury 4 more than Posh. So they're not basket cases so I don't think there's a "just roll them" story here. We have to work for every point.

We're not going to start every game like Plymouth in the Papa Johns. That's an outlier rather than a consistent norm. So we need to make sure we back the team if it's still 0-0 at half time. Evatt has said enough times the players know when the crowd are agitated and we don't half have some right knobs, which could play against us at home, if we're not careful.

COYWM.

[The_Gun]

I worry that we'll rue dropping two points on Tuesday in a game we absolutely should have won. I'm definitely not in the 'we'd have taken a point before kick off' camp. As Worthy says above, we have to assume that all our remaining opponents will turn up to play, and I'd be surprised if any of them give up 22 shots like Burton did.

Shrews have nothing to play for as a collective on Saturday, but as individuals a majority of them are out of contract this summer, so will be looking to impress potential suitors. I'd wager it will be a tough game.

It feels as though we may be limping over the line to make the playoffs, which ordinarily is a bad sign, but with the prospect of Rico and Eoin being available for the knock out games, there's potential we might actually be better in a few weeks, so let's get there by hook or by crook, then set ourselves up for a big finish.

[Worthy4England]

We always tend to look at the run in losses/draws as "the problem." For me, October when we didn't get a point from FGR/Oxford and err Cambridge? Cheltenham? A moderate 4 from 9, there and we'd be pretty much home and hosed..

[The_Gun]

Well yeah, recency bias and all that. I’m still annoyed about Tuesday and don’t really get why our fans seem so accepting of it.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Aye two points from two games against Cambridge, who are currently set for relegation, would seem sub-par.

I still look at our results and see a glass ceiling – in six games against the top three we've only managed two goals and three points – and our away results v top 12 are W3 D3 L5 (only 11 'cos even we can't lose to ourselves...) While I guess it stands to reason that the highest teams will have the fewer losses, our away returns overall haven't been great all season – only one win v current bottom four, and that was from 2-0 down... Plymouth, by contrast, have visited 7 of the bottom 8 and collected 19pts out of 21...

[Worthy4England]

Well yeah, recency bias and all that. I’m still annoyed about Tuesday and don’t really get why our fans seem so accepting of it.

Probably weren't expecting much in the first place, as no point did I think "that's a nailed on point/three points". I'm quite miffed, but unsurprised.

[Worthy4England]

Aye two points from two games against Cambridge, who are currently set for relegation, would seem sub-par.

I still look at our results and see a glass ceiling – in six games against the top three we've only managed two goals and three points – and our away results v top 12 are W3 D3 L5 (only 11 'cos even we can't lose to ourselves...) While I guess it stands to reason that the highest teams will have the fewer losses, our away returns overall haven't been great all season – only one win v current bottom four, and that was from 2-0 down... Plymouth, by contrast, have visited 7 of the bottom 8 and collected 19pts out of 21...

Agree mate, when I last looked, we were awful against top 8, great against mid-8 and less than stellar against bottom 8...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Well yeah, recency bias and all that. I’m still annoyed about Tuesday and don’t really get why our fans seem so accepting of it.

Can't speak for everyone, or indeed anyone, but I'd guess that (1) unlike last year, we didn't play like a bag of washing and (2) we were unlucky not to win. In that one game we had more shots that in the other three league games since Wembley combined, and the same number of efforts on target.

I was annoyed when the whistle went but not fearful. We sort of got away with it at Exeter and Oxford (and didn't quite at home to Cambridge), and while maximising results is a good thing, making plenty chances is a better sign for the future.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

when I last looked, we were awful against top 8, great against mid-8 and less than stellar against bottom 8...

Here's the matrix, with last year's for comparison.
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results grid.jpg (293.72 KiB) Viewed 1289 times

[officer_dibble]

Well yeah, recency bias and all that. I’m still annoyed about Tuesday and don’t really get why our fans seem so accepting of it.

For me it was because we stood up to the challenge of aerial bombardment / shite pitch. Every player gave their all, nobody went missing. We didn’t win because we were unlucky and the final shot / pass were poor (or woeful) which was annoying but certainly not the fault of our mentality or how we were set up. Even picking Williams at left back which worried me was proven correct.

[Worthy4England]

Good news, I've had ChatGPT on it....It doesn't have a clue whether we'll make the playoffs...

[The_Gun]

Sky Bet, the only bookie offering this market at the moment, price us at 1/12 to make the playoffs. Atrocious value if you ask me.

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

Good news, I've had ChatGPT on it....It doesn't have a clue whether we'll make the playoffs...

I've been on to Bard and it reckons you're all a bunch of panic fannys

[Harry Genshaw]

Two things jump out from DSBs matrix up there.

1) No one has done the double over us yet this season and Saturday is the last chance for it to happen.
2) As tight as we are at the back, we clearly don't score enough goals. Tuesday was probably more acceptable to the travelling fans because for once, we actually created several chances. We don't need to go gung ho but a little bit more speculation when in the opposition half. Please!

[BWFC_Insane]

Can't disagree with you on most of the above, BWFCi, but I'm always a bit wary of the idea that having nothing to play for makes a team relax into being world-beaters. I think it's especially false of "tough nuts" teams, like when Tony Pulis's Stoke would get to 40 points then go on holiday.

Barring Voderman-arousingly unlikely maths, Shrewsbury (12th) and Fleetwood (13th) will finish between 10th and 15th, and they're midtable for a reason - namely inconsistency. Shrews got 8pts from a possible 33, then 18/18, then 9/36; this month alone, Fleetwood have put five past Accy but lost at Cambridge. Yes, that means they can both win – but it also means they can, and do, both lose.

Accy's a different thing, IMO. While I'm generally dubious about jumping at shadows, I do agree that sometimes relegation-haunted teams can play out of their skins; at this level, players are often fighting for their livelihoods and sometimes they even realise it. Currently three points from safety, with a goal difference so bad it's essentially four points, they face a tough trip to Pompey on Saturday and could, if that day's results go against them, then be all but mathematically relegated by a loss at ours. While it couldn't happen to a nicer team, barring Morecambe, that kind of threat can sometimes be a last-gasp inspiration.

But all things told, we should – should – beat all three.

It’s not that I think they become world beaters. It’s that say Cambridge. We were awful. Still second half we should have buried the game and didn’t. Even though we did not play at all well they were bad enough that we should have won it. We ended up with a nervy few minutes hanging on to a 1-0 which at this stage with the nerves on our side a team fighting for everything with little to lose means a set piece or ball into the box can as Evatt says lead to the sort of thing Cambridge pulled off.

Doesn’t make them world beaters. But heightened stakes mean 1-0 is not a comfortable place to be in the closing stages. Is all I’m saying.

Burton game you could argue at 1-0 we could have pressed on more for a second. Killed it off. But didn’t.

We really need to ensure we keep going at 1-0 and take chances when they arise.

[BWFC_Insane]

Well yeah, recency bias and all that. I’m still annoyed about Tuesday and don’t really get why our fans seem so accepting of it.

Annoyed about what? We played well. Missed some chances. Got a point we all said we’d be happy with pre kick off.

Nobody missed chances deliberately. It ‘is a bit frustrating’ but whole piece since Wembley we’ve got more points than I think we’d have expected and that is with not playing brilliantly since then.