F.A.Cup...Re-play V Luton at Home. Tues 16th Jan 19-45

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Re: F.A.Cup...Re-play V Luton at Home. Tues 16th Jan 19-45

Post by Prufrock » Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:55 am

Obviously doesn't matter on priorities now, but on the idea that financially we need to go up, there's some more grist for DSB's the-Champo-is-a-basket-case mill today with some championship 22/23 accounts...

To take two of the more heralded "well run" clubs.

Luton's wage bill was 150% of revenue (a £9m deficit) and Preston's 139% (£6m).

Those numbers are...eesh given these are the supposed non-basket case clubs

So really we need either 1) promotion and then investment and likely still some magic to over perform; 2) acceptance that we need the odd champo season to subsidise L1/Champo yo-yoing (a la Barnsley/Rotherham); 3) a miracle...
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Re: F.A.Cup...Re-play V Luton at Home. Tues 16th Jan 19-45

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:10 am

Thread here on Luton finances is, as you say, ....eesh

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Re: F.A.Cup...Re-play V Luton at Home. Tues 16th Jan 19-45

Post by GhostoftheBok » Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:14 am

Prufrock wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:55 am
Obviously doesn't matter on priorities now, but on the idea that financially we need to go up, there's some more grist for DSB's the-Champo-is-a-basket-case mill today with some championship 22/23 accounts...

To take two of the more heralded "well run" clubs.

Luton's wage bill was 150% of revenue (a £9m deficit) and Preston's 139% (£6m).

Those numbers are...eesh given these are the supposed non-basket case clubs

So really we need either 1) promotion and then investment and likely still some magic to over perform; 2) acceptance that we need the odd champo season to subsidise L1/Champo yo-yoing (a la Barnsley/Rotherham); 3) a miracle...
It's not as bad as it seems.

We have the core of a competitive squad here as it stands. Our natural revenue in the Championship will be higher than either of those clubs. Preston have worked hard over the past 5 years to maximise their revenue streams and they still won't compete with Bolton at that level. We are selling about 5000 more tickets per game than Preston whilst we're in League One and often more than double Luton's maximum capacity.

That means a competitive budget has us losing far less money.

We will certainly need investment, but not so much as to make it an impossible task.

We can stabilise in the Championship using a very similar financial model to the one currently employed. It's promotion that'll cost a bit more, but again it's not Mount Everest.

The club has used the bond to try and get us set up to increase our revenue streams a level up. As I understand it the deals we have signed with sponsors include clauses that increase payments if we are promoted.

It'll be reet. We'll find the investment we need.

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Re: F.A.Cup...Re-play V Luton at Home. Tues 16th Jan 19-45

Post by Prufrock » Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:51 am

Luton's wage bill apparently bumped by promotion bonuses, but still in either case they're still losing big money.

I'm not saying we're doomed, but that investment does seem pretty crucial. And we're going to have to box clever. You want the challenge of course, but I'm still at eesh!
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Re: F.A.Cup...Re-play V Luton at Home. Tues 16th Jan 19-45

Post by GhostoftheBok » Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:54 am

Prufrock wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:51 am
Luton's wage bill apparently bumped by promotion bonuses, but still in either case they're still losing big money.

I'm not saying we're doomed, but that investment does seem pretty crucial. And we're going to have to box clever. You want the challenge of course, but I'm still at eesh!
I'm very much looking forward to having to worry about it.

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Re: F.A.Cup...Re-play V Luton at Home. Tues 16th Jan 19-45

Post by nicholaldo » Wed Jan 17, 2024 8:34 pm

I've assumed - perhaps incorrectly - that the plan is for the Swiss investors to really come to the fore if we get promoted.

Perhaps even a full takeover.

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Re: F.A.Cup...Re-play V Luton at Home. Tues 16th Jan 19-45

Post by Mar » Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:33 pm

nicholaldo wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2024 8:34 pm
I've assumed - perhaps incorrectly - that the plan is for the Swiss investors to really come to the fore if we get promoted.

Perhaps even a full takeover.
You'd've thought that would be the case. I hope its more of a buying into what they're trying to achieve scenario. We certainly look to be making year on year improvements but that may be derailed if the owners get bought out.

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Re: F.A.Cup...Re-play V Luton at Home. Tues 16th Jan 19-45

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:18 am

Mar wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:33 pm
nicholaldo wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2024 8:34 pm
I've assumed - perhaps incorrectly - that the plan is for the Swiss investors to really come to the fore if we get promoted.

Perhaps even a full takeover.
You'd've thought that would be the case. I hope its more of a buying into what they're trying to achieve scenario. We certainly look to be making year on year improvements but that may be derailed if the owners get bought out.
I think I have near zero inclination to believe there's a Swiss consortium, just waiting to pull the money pump handle..Not convinced it is a collection of more money than sense people, wanting to own a football club just because they've got nowt else to throw the spare change at.

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Re: F.A.Cup...Re-play V Luton at Home. Tues 16th Jan 19-45

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Jan 18, 2024 10:16 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:18 am
Mar wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:33 pm
nicholaldo wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2024 8:34 pm
I've assumed - perhaps incorrectly - that the plan is for the Swiss investors to really come to the fore if we get promoted.

Perhaps even a full takeover.
You'd've thought that would be the case. I hope its more of a buying into what they're trying to achieve scenario. We certainly look to be making year on year improvements but that may be derailed if the owners get bought out.
I think I have near zero inclination to believe there's a Swiss consortium, just waiting to pull the money pump handle..Not convinced it is a collection of more money than sense people, wanting to own a football club just because they've got nowt else to throw the spare change at.
Yeah I’m with worthy here. We have Swiss investors who have put money in. But there is little indication they are anything other than investors. They might be long term ones who are happy to see a longer term return.

But the idea they want to throw millions away at a championship project doesn’t really seem supported by too much.

I think the issue is that it costs a lot to keep a championship side afloat - and the cost of gambling to push further is even higher.

For me we need to go up and be very very sensible. With good management and sensible recruitment we’d have a chance of survival. Arguably more than a chance as I think we have the basis of the team we’d need already bar a few tweaks.

From there I think it would be down to FV to re assess and they’ve already indicated they would do so.

If we go up and come back down at least we have the extra money and hopefully are strong enough to go back up.

I don’t think that it’s likely that any madman or woman is chucking hundreds of millions our way. Or even a few million - without some guarantee they see it back.

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Re: F.A.Cup...Re-play V Luton at Home. Tues 16th Jan 19-45

Post by GhostoftheBok » Thu Jan 18, 2024 10:17 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:18 am
I think I have near zero inclination to believe there's a Swiss consortium, just waiting to pull the money pump handle..Not convinced it is a collection of more money than sense people, wanting to own a football club just because they've got nowt else to throw the spare change at.
Looks like your standard venture capital outfit.

It's entirely possible they'd do a deal whereby they keep Sharon et al on. Not sure anyone from that tribe will fancy actually running a football club.

Hands-on stuff is usually for "business" guys rather than "finance" types. Burnley have done pretty well with their guy - living locally and wanting to work with the town to improve the whole place. It doesn't seem like the Swiss lot are massively loaded or philanthropic enough to do it as a good deed.

Just have to hope it's more Swiss Bank than Swiss Tony.

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Re: F.A.Cup...Re-play V Luton at Home. Tues 16th Jan 19-45

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Jan 18, 2024 10:20 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Jan 18, 2024 10:16 am
For me we need to go up and be very very sensible. With good management and sensible recruitment we’d have a chance of survival. Arguably more than a chance as I think we have the basis of the team we’d need already bar a few tweaks.

From there I think it would be down to FV to re assess and they’ve already indicated they would do so.

If we go up and come back down at least we have the extra money and hopefully are strong enough to go back up.

I don’t think that it’s likely that any madman or woman is chucking hundreds of millions our way. Or even a few million - without some guarantee they see it back.
I agree wholeheartedly with this. We HAVE to be sensible. It might take time to build. It might involve a relegation battle. We might even dip back down.

The problem with that model is that some Bolton fans get itchy after two bad results, let alone a bad month or three. And I suspect that "rip it up and start again" – or indeed short-termism - is not the viable answer the voluble green-grassers imagine it to be.

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Re: F.A.Cup...Re-play V Luton at Home. Tues 16th Jan 19-45

Post by GhostoftheBok » Thu Jan 18, 2024 10:22 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Jan 18, 2024 10:20 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Jan 18, 2024 10:16 am
For me we need to go up and be very very sensible. With good management and sensible recruitment we’d have a chance of survival. Arguably more than a chance as I think we have the basis of the team we’d need already bar a few tweaks.

From there I think it would be down to FV to re assess and they’ve already indicated they would do so.

If we go up and come back down at least we have the extra money and hopefully are strong enough to go back up.

I don’t think that it’s likely that any madman or woman is chucking hundreds of millions our way. Or even a few million - without some guarantee they see it back.
I agree wholeheartedly with this. We HAVE to be sensible. It might take time to build. It might involve a relegation battle. We might even dip back down.

The problem with that model is that some Bolton fans get itchy after two bad results, let alone a bad month or three. And I suspect that "rip it up and start again" – or indeed short-termism - is not the viable answer the voluble green-grassers imagine it to be.
If we got relegated there would 100% be calls for Evatt's head, regardless of any mitigating factors.

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Re: F.A.Cup...Re-play V Luton at Home. Tues 16th Jan 19-45

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Jan 18, 2024 10:35 am

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Thu Jan 18, 2024 10:17 am
Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:18 am
I think I have near zero inclination to believe there's a Swiss consortium, just waiting to pull the money pump handle..Not convinced it is a collection of more money than sense people, wanting to own a football club just because they've got nowt else to throw the spare change at.
Looks like your standard venture capital outfit.

It's entirely possible they'd do a deal whereby they keep Sharon et al on. Not sure anyone from that tribe will fancy actually running a football club.

Hands-on stuff is usually for "business" guys rather than "finance" types. Burnley have done pretty well with their guy - living locally and wanting to work with the town to improve the whole place. It doesn't seem like the Swiss lot are massively loaded or philanthropic enough to do it as a good deed.

Just have to hope it's more Swiss Bank than Swiss Tony.
That was pretty much where I was at.

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Re: F.A.Cup...Re-play V Luton at Home. Tues 16th Jan 19-45

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Fri Jan 19, 2024 8:50 am

Tomo on Barkley. Typically, not bragging; just learning, learning, learning.
He is so technically gifted and has been an elite footballer for such a long time at the highest level. Being one-v-one against him and seeing how he manipulates the ball and his own body to move opposition players around is really high-level stuff. If I can take that sort of thing from his game and add it to mine, it is only going to allow me to become a better player.
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