Race to the tape: 2024's League One promotion campaign

[officer_dibble]

You can guarantee they will come to our place and look like world beaters. Either way that’s another nail in the coffin for us.

[DJBlu]

I'd say it's probably given Derby the push they needed. A sucker punch third might have done it but as they say the fat lady ...

[BorsdaneWhite]

A much better Derby than the one which played us, and yet they took 3 that day. They were smart and took both goals well from the same side. One can only hope there’s a lesson for Evatt for our right-side to be direct against that left-back.

Not ideal by any means, but it never is.

[Worthy4England]

How the feck are they in 1st and 2nd?

Pompey limping towards the title?

Coz we've managed to be shitterer, more often and when it counts.

[Prufrock]

Perfect and we go up, anything less I think it's play offs. Derby are baaad though. Done by the weather. Portsmouth deserve it tbf.

[Mar]

Portsmouth: Shrewsbury (H), Bolton (A), Barnsley (H), Wigan (H), Lincoln (A)
Derby: Wycombe (A), Leyton Orient (H), Cambridge (A), Carlisle (H)
Bolton: Bristol Rovers (A), Portsmouth (H), Shrewsbury (H), Port Vale (H), Peterborough (A)

It's looking increasingly likely that Derby have the easiest matches. Wycombe pose an interesting challenge having come off the back of a FLT Final, I suspect that'll be largely dependent on how buoyed they are by the result.

Portsmouth on the other hand are walking into a tough set of fixtures. Shrewsbury looking the easiest (we also play Shrews), but aside from that, they've got ourselves (level pegging against the top 6 so far), Barnsley at home where Barnsley's away form is their high point of the season (albeit less so vs top of the table), Wigan who have a fantastic record of wins vs the top 6 (17 points from possible 30, W5D2L3) and Lincoln, whose form is great but record against top 6 less so (6 points from possible 27).

Our fixtures, are what they are. Our tricky run featuring Blackpool, Wigan, Oxford, Derby, Stevenage, Pompey and Peterborough, see us still in contention with only Pompey and Peterborough left to play from the top 6. Not in the ideal situation we would like but certainly still in the running. Sandwiched in between our struggling away form has been some remarkable results at the Toughsheet and we can thank the heavens we've still got 3 home games left to go.


Derby needed to win today to dent Portsmouth hopes, as we will when we face them. The game week on the 13th of April has the following:

Bolton v Portsmouth
Derby v Leyton Orient

A win for Bolton and a win for Derby may see that Portsmouth side get a lot more nervous than they would like. I'm not saying it's likely, just still a possibility. Portsmouth were phenomenal in the opening 17 games of the season (unbeaten), had a blip around Christmas time and left the door open for the chasers.

We've got half a chance. Winning our remaining games should do it, but its quite the ask.


Thats not to say I don't expect Portsmouth to do it, just that we've got reasons to be optimistic.

[Worthy4England]

The bookies are optimistic enough to be offering 1/125 on Pompey,

But yeah, win 5 and we leave Pompey needing 7 points from 5 games and Derby needing all 12 from 4, it feels a bit glue-sniffing to think Pompey are not going to manage that.

We draw a couple and it starts to look very tough.

Edit: It's easier for Posh/Barnsley to catch us, than it is for us to catch Pompey.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I'm not even considering catching Pompey. I wanted them to win last night and swore at them several times during the evening for not doing so.

As Worthy notes, *IF* we win all of our games (inc the champs-elect plus Posh away, so it's a big if) it would leave Derby needing to win all their four games (they'd need 11 to be level on points but they can't get that from four games).

So it's the same as before - win all the games and see what happens.

For the record, winning all five games would get us to 93pts. For comparison with other 46-game promotion hauls: Evatt's promotion team got 79, Parky's got 86, Allardyce's 87, Todd's 98, Rioch's 90 (D3) and 77 (D2), Neal's 78. But they all got the job done, which is all that matters in the end.

[Worthy4England]

^^ Just as an aside, 2017 - we had a bit of a hiccup from here, last 5 games netting only 7 points, which kept us guessing until 2 to play (or so)...

Edit:

Game 42 - L to Scunthorpe out nearest competitors - big game bottle jobs.
Game 43 - L to Oldham - I mean local derby of some league importance - why wouldn't we? - big game bottle jobs
Game 44 - D to Bury - see above
Game 45 - W at Port Vale - Needed to - Fleetwood were now hot on our heels
Game 46 - W comfortably at home to Posh - hopefully an omen - sealed autos, last day

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

^^ Just as an aside, 2017 - we had a bit of a hiccup from here, last 5 games netting only 7 points, which kept us guessing until 2 to play (or so)...

Edit:

Game 42 - L to Scunthorpe out nearest competitors - big game bottle jobs.
Game 43 - L to Oldham - I mean local derby of some league importance - why wouldn't we? - big game bottle jobs
Game 44 - D to Bury - see above
Game 45 - W at Port Vale - Needed to - Fleetwood were now hot on our heels
Game 46 - W comfortably at home to Posh - hopefully an omen - sealed autos, last day

I remember them all clearly (was at some of 'em) except for Bury, which for some reason I cannot recall at all. But yeah I do recall plenty doom-tolls from the usual clangers that we'd never go up.

Top four that season - Sheff U, us, Scunny, Fleetwood. Quite the different stories since. If you picture the clubs as people in a movie, it'd be a hell of a tale.

[TANGODANCER]

It'll be nice to play against sides who want to play football and win. Is rather do that than just fight dour draws against teams of cloggers. I reckon we're as good as most at pure football.

[Worthy4England]

^^ Just as an aside, 2017 - we had a bit of a hiccup from here, last 5 games netting only 7 points, which kept us guessing until 2 to play (or so)...

Edit:

Game 42 - L to Scunthorpe out nearest competitors - big game bottle jobs.
Game 43 - L to Oldham - I mean local derby of some league importance - why wouldn't we? - big game bottle jobs
Game 44 - D to Bury - see above
Game 45 - W at Port Vale - Needed to - Fleetwood were now hot on our heels
Game 46 - W comfortably at home to Posh - hopefully an omen - sealed autos, last day

I remember them all clearly (was at some of 'em) except for Bury, which for some reason I cannot recall at all. But yeah I do recall plenty doom-tolls from the usual clangers that we'd never go up.

Top four that season - Sheff U, us, Scunny, Fleetwood. Quite the different stories since. If you picture the clubs as people in a movie, it'd be a hell of a tale.

I'm pretty sure there were lots of happy clappers telling us we were going to make it, in years that we didn't quite manage - ya know 75/76, 76/77 (well you probably don't know them) etc. etc. Blissful ignorance from people tied to the train tracks and hoping that it was Dick Dastardly what did it and the Ant Hill mob are on their way - without a clanger in sight!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Aye. As I've said before, I think for some, negativity is a self-protection mechanism - assume the worst and you won't be disappointed. Although some of the loudest voices last week seem rather quieter this week, which doesn't help dispel the notion that there's a masochistic desire to fail.

[Worthy4England]

Aye. As I've said before, I think for some, negativity is a self-protection mechanism - assume the worst and you won't be disappointed. Although some of the loudest voices last week seem rather quieter this week, which doesn't help dispel the notion that there's a masochistic desire to fail.

One person's negativity is another's realism...

[truewhite15]

Aye. As I've said before, I think for some, negativity is a self-protection mechanism - assume the worst and you won't be disappointed. Although some of the loudest voices last week seem rather quieter this week, which doesn't help dispel the notion that there's a masochistic desire to fail.

One person's negativity is another's realism...

Or rather, one person's negativity is often seen by themselves to be realism...

[Worthy4England]

Aye. As I've said before, I think for some, negativity is a self-protection mechanism - assume the worst and you won't be disappointed. Although some of the loudest voices last week seem rather quieter this week, which doesn't help dispel the notion that there's a masochistic desire to fail.

One person's negativity is another's realism...

Or rather, one person's negativity is often seen by themselves to be realism...

Quite, but it's not for me to judge 'em, just because I have a bright, sunny, disposition. It's the same the other way around, too.

[boltonboris]

Derby will win 1, lose 1, draw 2 and finish on 87 points

We’ll win 3, lose 1, draw 1 and finish on 88 points

[dave the minion]

Derby will win 1, lose 1, draw 2 and finish on 87 points

We’ll win 3, lose 1, draw 1 and finish on 88 points

Like it. Like it a lot......

[DJBlu]

We're shit with games in hand so let's see what Derby do with theirs. This is all dependent on us doing the business.

If the team that played Reading turns up then we have nothing to worry about with regards our performances. The issue is *IF*.

COYWM!!!

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

If the team that played Reading turns up then we have nothing to worry about with regards our performances. The issue is *IF*.
COYWM!!!

Things is, we all thought that after the last 5-0. We know if that team turns up we're probably winning by some margin. We need to find consistency again. It's the hope that gets you