Race to the tape: 2024's League One promotion campaign

[irie Cee Bee]

I am sure the team that beat Reading will turn up. However, Its what the opposition does that will make us look like world beaters or like wankers. Some will see the Derby vs Portsmouth game and say.. hey, how on earth are those teams ahead of us? We are better than they are based on how they look. That's not how football is assessed. They are both strong organized teams and are tough to beat. We will not look good against them. They will stifle us and not give us many chances, and when they get one, they will take it. So we lose... and we ask where is the team that played Reading? Why didn't they turn up??

The answer, different opponent, different tactics.

[boltonboris]

I am sure the team that beat Reading will turn up. However, Its what the opposition does that will make us look like world beaters or like wankers. Some will see the Derby vs Portsmouth game and say.. hey, how on earth are those teams ahead of us? We are better than they are based on how they look. That's not how football is assessed. They are both strong organized teams and are tough to beat. We will not look good against them. They will stifle us and not give us many chances, and when they get one, they will take it. So we lose... and we ask where is the team that played Reading? Why didn't they turn up??

The answer, different opponent, different tactics.

Wait. You mean… there are TWO teams on the pitch?!?!

[irie Cee Bee]

I am sure the team that beat Reading will turn up. However, Its what the opposition does that will make us look like world beaters or like wankers. Some will see the Derby vs Portsmouth game and say.. hey, how on earth are those teams ahead of us? We are better than they are based on how they look. That's not how football is assessed. They are both strong organized teams and are tough to beat. We will not look good against them. They will stifle us and not give us many chances, and when they get one, they will take it. So we lose... and we ask where is the team that played Reading? Why didn't they turn up??

The answer, different opponent, different tactics.

Wait. You mean… there are TWO teams on the pitch?!?!

Yeah...Sometimes we tend to forget that in our predictions.

[The_Gun]

I suppose we’re hoping for a Wycombe victory in the trophy final this afternoon then. That’d bring a nice double whammy of boosting the Chairboys’ confidence ahead of Wednesday and demoralising Posh.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I suppose we’re hoping for a Wycombe victory in the trophy final this afternoon then. That’d bring a nice double whammy of boosting the Chairboys’ confidence ahead of Wednesday and demoralising Posh.

Purely selfishly 'tactically' - I agree.

Just on a sense of the two clubs, I agree even more strongly. Despite the fact I don't like Gareth Ainsworth, Wycombe are a great little club and I like them far more than I like Peterborough and Darragh MacAnthony.

[truewhite15]

Plus, Kieran Sadlier.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I suppose we’re hoping for a Wycombe victory in the trophy final this afternoon then. That’d bring a nice double whammy of boosting the Chairboys’ confidence ahead of Wednesday and demoralising Posh.

Sadly, just about the opposite happened. Posh scored on 85, Wycombe equalised but conceded in injury time.

Oh well. Posh also have to play on Wednesday - home to Vale - and owt less than a win would leave them rank outsiders to make the automatics (a draw would leave them 7pts behind Derby with 5 games left). But our eyeline now has to look upwards, and we're all Wycombe fans on Wednesday,

[officer_dibble]

Better than extra time!

[irie Cee Bee]

Cant see Derby dropping anymore points. Thought Wycombe away for them would be our best bet, but with them losing the final, it will be hard for them to pick themselves up having nothing to play for now.

[Mar]

Cant see Derby dropping anymore points. Thought Wycombe away for them would be our best bet, but with them losing the final, it will be hard for them to pick themselves up having nothing to play for now.

Arguably our best bet is for them to drop points against Leyton Orient or Wycombe.
Trouble is, all their opponents have finished their seasons. They're just playing out games.

Wycombe may want to avenge their cup final defeat and not wallow in defeat, essentially getting it out of their system. They will have less rest than Derby though so that may be a factor.

Leyton Orient having extra time to rest players compared to Derby when they play each other.

Cambridge their final day season finish at home may help, but I doubt it'll be enough, and Carlisle should be a walk in the park for them.


Suspect it's the play offs for us.

[Spartan2]

I wouldn't bet against playoffs for us but on the other hand both Derby and we have dropped points in games that on paper should have been an easy 3 points.

[truewhite15]

Cant see Derby dropping anymore points. Thought Wycombe away for them would be our best bet, but with them losing the final, it will be hard for them to pick themselves up having nothing to play for now.

Arguably our best bet is for them to drop points against Leyton Orient or Wycombe.
Trouble is, all their opponents have finished their seasons. They're just playing out games.

Wycombe may want to avenge their cup final defeat and not wallow in defeat, essentially getting it out of their system. They will have less rest than Derby though so that may be a factor.

Leyton Orient having extra time to rest players compared to Derby when they play each other.

Cambridge their final day season finish at home may help, but I doubt it'll be enough, and Carlisle should be a walk in the park for them.


Suspect it's the play offs for us.

I wonder what would be said about that set of opponents were we lined up to play them instead? I can imagine plenty of gnashed teeth about teams with nothing to play for being the most difficult opponents...

[boltonboris]

Cant see Derby dropping anymore points. Thought Wycombe away for them would be our best bet, but with them losing the final, it will be hard for them to pick themselves up having nothing to play for now.

Arguably our best bet is for them to drop points against Leyton Orient or Wycombe.
Trouble is, all their opponents have finished their seasons. They're just playing out games.

Wycombe may want to avenge their cup final defeat and not wallow in defeat, essentially getting it out of their system. They will have less rest than Derby though so that may be a factor.

Leyton Orient having extra time to rest players compared to Derby when they play each other.

Cambridge their final day season finish at home may help, but I doubt it'll be enough, and Carlisle should be a walk in the park for them.


Suspect it's the play offs for us.

I wonder what would be said about that set of opponents were we lined up to play them instead? I can imagine plenty of gnashed teeth about teams with nothing to play for being the most difficult opponents...

Yep... Same as when we had games in hand, everybody said points on the board were more important

Then when we were ahead, but Derby had games in hand, suddenly having the games in hand were more important

[Prufrock]

I think we'll go up if we win all our games (well, we definitely will of we win all our games, but probably if we win all the regular season ones). Pressure does funny things and Derby aren't very good. They got lucky with the weather at Fratton Park. Big test, Pompey at home, if we can't get that done, probably deserve play offs.

Looks a bit less likely now Barnsley have dropped off, but there remains a chance that P'Boro away game could be a daft run for the same game a week later.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I know what you both mean (Boris and TW15) but I strongly suspect we could have had some easier tasks in the last four games than playing the champions-elect and travelling to the team in 4th.

Now, it's possible that by the final day, Posh will be constrained to the play-offs and thus much less bothered than us (if our auto hopes remain alive). It's even possible that Pompey, who must have already booked the bus, won't be as determined to win as we are.

But if I picture the last four games as a hand of cards I'm being dealt, I wouldn't want to see "play 1st" and "play 4th" in there. I might not also want to play a team (Vale) only outside the drop zone on goal difference. And I might look somewhat resentfully at the guy opposite as he plays his hand of 14th, 10th, 19th (but likely to be safe) and 24th (long since down).

As it happens I think we can win all four, but we might not. Derby might drop a bollock in any of their four, but it would be a total delightful surprise if so.

[Worthy4England]

Cant see Derby dropping anymore points. Thought Wycombe away for them would be our best bet, but with them losing the final, it will be hard for them to pick themselves up having nothing to play for now.

Arguably our best bet is for them to drop points against Leyton Orient or Wycombe.
Trouble is, all their opponents have finished their seasons. They're just playing out games.

Wycombe may want to avenge their cup final defeat and not wallow in defeat, essentially getting it out of their system. They will have less rest than Derby though so that may be a factor.

Leyton Orient having extra time to rest players compared to Derby when they play each other.

Cambridge their final day season finish at home may help, but I doubt it'll be enough, and Carlisle should be a walk in the park for them.


Suspect it's the play offs for us.

I wonder what would be said about that set of opponents were we lined up to play them instead? I can imagine plenty of gnashed teeth about teams with nothing to play for being the most difficult opponents...

Absolutely. I don't think it's going to necessarily be a gimmie for Derby either. But what I would say about Derby, is they ground out a home win under pressure v us and twice led at Pompey, before getting a draw.

There's not a lot between us and Derby in last 10 game form - they're 2 points ahead because they won 1 more and we drew one more.

[Mar]

Cant see Derby dropping anymore points. Thought Wycombe away for them would be our best bet, but with them losing the final, it will be hard for them to pick themselves up having nothing to play for now.

Arguably our best bet is for them to drop points against Leyton Orient or Wycombe.
Trouble is, all their opponents have finished their seasons. They're just playing out games.

Wycombe may want to avenge their cup final defeat and not wallow in defeat, essentially getting it out of their system. They will have less rest than Derby though so that may be a factor.

Leyton Orient having extra time to rest players compared to Derby when they play each other.

Cambridge their final day season finish at home may help, but I doubt it'll be enough, and Carlisle should be a walk in the park for them.


Suspect it's the play offs for us.

I wonder what would be said about that set of opponents were we lined up to play them instead? I can imagine plenty of gnashed teeth about teams with nothing to play for being the most difficult opponents...

Absolutely. I don't think it's going to necessarily be a gimmie for Derby either. But what I would say about Derby, is they ground out a home win under pressure v us and twice led at Pompey, before getting a draw.

There's not a lot between us and Derby in last 10 game form - they're 2 points ahead because they won 1 more and we drew one more.

Definitely not a lot between us and Derby. I think we've looked better than them in our fixtures vs them but not by a substantial margin. The rest of the fixtures have been close too.

We've got tougher fixtures and I think we'll end up having a good run. If Derby drop points then great that's a bonus but I wouldn't count on it.

Going into the playoffs in really good form is crucial. Peterborough and the rest might end up relaxing or taking the pressure off. For us it's a case of maintaining high levels to get promoted, automatically or otherwise.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Going into the playoffs in really good form is crucial. Peterborough and the rest might end up relaxing or taking the pressure off. For us it's a case of maintaining high levels to get promoted, automatically or otherwise.

Aye.

If we win all our games until the end of the season we'll go up. Mahybe automatically, maybe at Wembley.

In other words... Just. Keep. Winning.

[officer_dibble]

Ugh, not looking forward to the likelihood of a team celebrating something again at ours on Saturday. Be a double kick in the nuts this time given we should have been fighting for the title with them.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Ugh, not looking forward to the likelihood of a team celebrating something again at ours on Saturday. Be a double kick in the nuts this time given we should have been fighting for the title with them.

Because we're 9pts behind them, they only go up if they win. And that is decidedly not our plan.

That's even if Derby lose on Wednesday and on Saturday - the Rams would still be on 82pts, as we would be in this scenario, with Pompey on either 90 (if we win) or 91 (draw).

However... if they win, they're up because we couldn't catch them. And as that would put them on 93pts, and Derby are right now on 82, they'd also win the title unless Derby - who would then only have two games left, unlike our three – had won on both Wednesday and Saturday.