Race to the tape: 2024's League One promotion campaign

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Suddenly it's a foursome.
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Barnsley won't play their game in hand (Stevenage away) for a month yet, but looking at their fixtures even with a coldly dispassionate eye you'd have to say they largely look favourable – they will be hoping for a very productive March in particular. Interesting that their game at Pompey is likely to be rearranged due to international callups - that's a long trip for a midweek.

The night after Barnsley get their free hit at Stevenage, Derby are at Wycombe in the game delayed by Wycombe's Wembley appearance the previous weekend; while things can change in the interim, right now it looks absolutely vital that we win our game on their 'free' weekend, while Derby twiddle their ruinously expensive thumbs. Our game's at Bristol Rovers so it's neither the hardest nor the easiest, but a team in a promotion chase needs to be winning far more than it doesn't.

[officer_dibble]

Admire your optimism but Barnsley above us within the week, we’ll win the games that don’t matter and lose the ones that do (‘they all matter’ - not when you bottle the tough ones).

[BWFC_Insane]

Suddenly it's a foursome.
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Screenshot 2024-02-29 at 09.56.49.png
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Barnsley won't play their game in hand (Stevenage away) for a month yet, but looking at their fixtures even with a coldly dispassionate eye you'd have to say they largely look favourable – they will be hoping for a very productive March in particular. Interesting that their game at Pompey is likely to be rearranged due to international callups - that's a long trip for a midweek.

The night after Barnsley get their free hit at Stevenage, Derby are at Wycombe in the game delayed by Wycombe's Wembley appearance the previous weekend; while things can change in the interim, right now it looks absolutely vital that we win our game on their 'free' weekend, while Derby twiddle their ruinously expensive thumbs. Our game's at Bristol Rovers so it's neither the hardest nor the easiest, but a team in a promotion chase needs to be winning far more than it doesn't.

Looking at Barnsleys fixtures they might reasonably drop points to Pompey, ourselves, Stevenage away and Blackpool away.

The rest on paper at least you’d have to assume they win (though odd things happen in run ins).

I’d say our game there is one we probably can’t lose if we want a chance of it being in our own hands.

You’d have to put Barnsley as favourites right now. They have the momentum and the fixtures.

[TANGODANCER]

Not being afraid to say "I just don't know", I don't subscribe to the Nostradamus Chronicle or such-like views. Omelettes and egg sayings have never been truer and even the wildest speculation is only a hamstring away from fact or fiction. It's all just a massive guessing game with "if" the real villain. On our good/bad days we can play like Real Madrid or Moss Bank Rovers. Hope is still the best option. That said, I hope, I hope it doesn't rain heavily in Cambridge. Right now it's sleating here in Farnworth.

[BWFC_Insane]

Not being afraid to say "I just don't know", I don't subscribe to the Nostradamus Chronicle or such-like views. Omelettes and egg sayings have never been truer and even the wildest speculation is only a hamstring away from fact or fiction. It's all just a massive guessing game with "if" the real villain. On our good/bad days we can play like Real Madrid or Moss Bank Rovers. Hope is still the best option. That said, I hope, I hope it doesn't rain heavily in Cambridge. Right now it's sleating here in Farnworth.

It’s a home game TD.

[TANGODANCER]

Not being afraid to say "I just don't know", I don't subscribe to the Nostradamus Chronicle or such-like views. Omelettes and egg sayings have never been truer and even the wildest speculation is only a hamstring away from fact or fiction. It's all just a massive guessing game with "if" the real villain. On our good/bad days we can play like Real Madrid or Moss Bank Rovers. Hope is still the best option. That said, I hope, I hope it doesn't rain heavily in Cambridge. Right now it's sleating here in Farnworth.

It’s a home game TD.

Aye, I knew actually, but I was thinking postponement. sorry..

[MattySlug]

Talking on BWFC chances soon Talksport2 EFL Fan Show within next 10-15 minutes I reckon

I am listening to it now they talking Plymouth Argyle at the moment

Ah Ryan from TrotterChatter Podcast is in for 10 or so minutes ah cool

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Our home game v Shrewsbury on Mar 23 has, as expected, been postponed - and immediately rearranged for Tue Apr 16, meaning we now have three home games in seven days (Pompey, Shrews, Vale).

The other top-four haven't yet rearranged their games - Pompey vs Barnsley (!) and Northampton-Derby - although both are almost certain to also be called off. From what I can see, Pompey-Barnsley can only really switch to Apr 16 or 23 (the very last midweek of the regular season).
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[Dave Sutton's barnet]

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[Dave Sutton's barnet]

So, as we close in on the international break – although so far there's only us among the contenders that's had a game postponed, all of them probably will – we've let Posh back within punching distance of us. They've got an interesting finish to this sprint, with two home games - first against Long-Ball Stevenage then Champions Elect Pompey.

Big week for Derby too, ticking along nicely and back in second, with two home games. Our visit there next weekend is on paper their second-hardest remaining game, and you imagine they'll be up for it. Eek.

Behind us, Barnsley have what look like two good games to catch up - but then whodathunk they'd lose 5-1 at home to Lincoln? Precisely nobody, that's who. Couple of days ago I thought the then-top four would win their next couple of games; three of us fell at the first hurdle, and Barnsley absolutely stacked it. We're getting into unpredictable season....

One more little thing. Assuming Posh's game in a fortnight is postponed for internationals, there's only one midweek left to reschedule it - the final one. Which means we'll be twice as rested for the final day...
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[BWFC_Insane]

Last ten games we sit 15th in form table. 15th!

[officer_dibble]

Derby game is pivotal. Defeat there and it’s probably curtains!

[Mar]

5 games out of the last 9 are at home. Do the business at home and we should be good, given the mixed form of the teams in the league.

We've just come off 10 games where we played away 6 out of the previous 10, 2 of those being Derby matches (Wigan, Blackpool), 2 being tough at the top and the rest we've had mixed results.

The tricky ties: P4 W0 D2 L2
Barnsley (A): 2-2
Barnsley (H): 1-1
Wigan (A): 0-1
Blackpool (A): 1-4

The not so tricky ties: P6 W3 D3 L0
Exeter (A): 2-2
Cambridge (H): 2-0
Cambridge (A): 2-1
Charlton (A): 3-3
Wycombe (H): 2-1
Northampton (A): 1-1

The frustrations have come from the fact that we've thrown away dominant performances through our own mistakes. We should've beat Exeter, Charlton, etc. The sloppy goals conceded against Exeter and Charlton have really cost us. Poor red cards giving us an uphill battle and it really paints the picture that we've failed to capitalise on our good position.

These things are not unknown. We should be doing better.

Oxford (H)
Derby (A)
Stevenage (A)
Reading (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)
Portsmouth (H)
Shrewsbury (H)
Port Vale (H)
Peterborough (A)

Some tough fixtures in there at the top of the table but its in our hands to turn it around. We really could do with some good news coming from the likes of Charles or Baxter. Sheehan dodging his suspension should see us have a more competitive fight from him, which should help free him up to tackle more.

[officer_dibble]

Can’t just win at home and expect to go up I’m afraid!

[BWFC_Insane]

5 games out of the last 9 are at home. Do the business at home and we should be good, given the mixed form of the teams in the league.

We've just come off 10 games where we played away 6 out of the previous 10, 2 of those being Derby matches (Wigan, Blackpool), 2 being tough at the top and the rest we've had mixed results.

The tricky ties: P4 W0 D2 L2
Barnsley (A): 2-2
Barnsley (H): 1-1
Wigan (A): 0-1
Blackpool (A): 1-4

The not so tricky ties: P6 W3 D3 L0
Exeter (A): 2-2
Cambridge (H): 2-0
Cambridge (A): 2-1
Charlton (A): 3-3
Wycombe (H): 2-1
Northampton (A): 1-1

The frustrations have come from the fact that we've thrown away dominant performances through our own mistakes. We should've beat Exeter, Charlton, etc. The sloppy goals conceded against Exeter and Charlton have really cost us. Poor red cards giving us an uphill battle and it really paints the picture that we've failed to capitalise on our good position.

These things are not unknown. We should be doing better.

Oxford (H)
Derby (A)
Stevenage (A)
Reading (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)
Portsmouth (H)
Shrewsbury (H)
Port Vale (H)
Peterborough (A)

Some tough fixtures in there at the top of the table but its in our hands to turn it around. We really could do with some good news coming from the likes of Charles or Baxter. Sheehan dodging his suspension should see us have a more competitive fight from him, which should help free him up to tackle more.

We likely need 8 wins now. 5 ain’t getting us anywhere.

Charles is bad news. Another setback says Evatt.

[TANGODANCER]

We likely need 8 wins now. 5 ain’t getting us anywhere.

Always assuming the other contenders won't slip up of course? Cup and lip is always relevant...
Last few games should have reminded us we aren't infallible, just the opposite in fact. We've been dealt a bad hand re injuries but we can't change that; just go with what we have but a bit of hair-drying needed from above. Maybe I've been a bit harsh on Santos, but he needs an alterative to foot-on-the-ball . He's good, but no Franz Beckenbauer or Bobby Moore. It's a dangerous ploy inviting the opposition in, as Exeter proved yesterday. Their football was very good at times and we got away with one there after our loony-tunes five minute of madness. Let's leave "The Famous Five" with Enid Blyton.

On the positive side, I'm chuffed at the fighting spirit amongst the team, but let's play the ace, rather then keep chasing it.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

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Thanks to whoever it was posted the site https://www.probs4.club/team/Bolton - interesting to watch its predictions fluctuate. After Saturday, it had 4th as marginally our most likely place; now it's 3rd.

The graph I find most interesting, though, is this:
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Unless I'm reading it incorrectly - something which can't be ruled out - this is calculating our most likely points total at 87, then 88, then 85, then 86. That's between 11pts and 14pts more than we have now, from the remaining 8 games.

Call me overly excited after last night, but I don't think it's vanishingly improbable that we overperform that, if we go on a tradtional Evattball spring surge.

5 wins from the last 8 – say, our four home games plus one away - looks very doable to me; if one's this weekend, it brings our automatic odds down even more.

IDK. It's all tealeaf-reading, graphs into an unknowable future. Might we get four teams on 90pts? Or even five?

[BWFC_Insane]

^^Ignoring our game I have Derby down for 6 wins. Let’s take one off for usual ‘oddity’.

That puts them on 90 points. Then obviously whatever they get from the game against us.

If we win Saturday then I’m saying that we will need 5 more wins or 4 and some change, because I think Barnsley will be around that 89-91 mark.

If we lose Saturday then I think it’s likely Derby get to 93 and that would mean we’d need to win our remaining 7, even then that’s predicated on Derby failing to win a game most would expect them to.

You got to admit out of their fixtures bar us and Pompey at least on paper those are all ones they should win. Doesn’t mean they will but right now I think best to assume they will.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

^^Ignoring our game I have Derby down for 6 wins. Let’s take one off for usual ‘oddity’.

That puts them on 90 points. Then obviously whatever they get from the game against us.

If we win Saturday then I’m saying that we will need 5 more wins or 4 and some change, because I think Barnsley will be around that 89-91 mark.

If we lose Saturday then I think it’s likely Derby get to 93 and that would mean we’d need to win our remaining 7, even then that’s predicated on Derby failing to win a game most would expect them to.

You got to admit out of their fixtures bar us and Pompey at least on paper those are all ones they should win. Doesn’t mean they will but right now I think best to assume they will.

Oh I think we've got to assume we need to win them all. Do that and there's no "likely" about it - we just go up.

All those teams are capable of winning a lot, but they're also capable of dropping points and b0ll0cks. Barnsley won't get to 91pts by dropping 2-goal leads at home, losing 5-1 at home to Lincoln or going 1 down at Carlisle – and that's just in the last week. A fortnight ago, Derby lost two in four days despite leading in both games. Posh are rolling now but it's not long since they lost four on the bounce, conceding 12 in the process. And none of us need reminding how Wanderers can glaze over and act dumb. The hope is that we do it less than the rivals.

[BWFC_Insane]

^^Ignoring our game I have Derby down for 6 wins. Let’s take one off for usual ‘oddity’.

That puts them on 90 points. Then obviously whatever they get from the game against us.

If we win Saturday then I’m saying that we will need 5 more wins or 4 and some change, because I think Barnsley will be around that 89-91 mark.

If we lose Saturday then I think it’s likely Derby get to 93 and that would mean we’d need to win our remaining 7, even then that’s predicated on Derby failing to win a game most would expect them to.

You got to admit out of their fixtures bar us and Pompey at least on paper those are all ones they should win. Doesn’t mean they will but right now I think best to assume they will.

Oh I think we've got to assume we need to win them all. Do that and there's no "likely" about it - we just go up.

All those teams are capable of winning a lot, but they're also capable of dropping points and b0ll0cks. Barnsley won't get to 91pts by dropping 2-goal leads at home, losing 5-1 at home to Lincoln or going 1 down at Carlisle – and that's just in the last week. A fortnight ago, Derby lost two in four days despite leading in both games. Posh are rolling now but it's not long since they lost four on the bounce, conceding 12 in the process. And none of us need reminding how Wanderers can glaze over and act dumb. The hope is that we do it less than the rivals.

Agreed but sometimes the mind focuses in these teams in the run in. I suspect it will with at least one. Hopefully us. But I’d assume you know that it might be a couple. See how we and West Ham having struggled most of the season started pulling off upper mid table form in the run in and ended up pushing the highest points total at the time (still now?) to survive.


Realistically looking at it Saturday is critical. If we lose it we’ll be incredibly lucky to reach the top two and in all honesty is probably, whilst not time to give up, time to consider how to be peaking for the play offs. Draw leaves us in with a shout but likely would need to win two out of our remaining three very tricky fixtures at least and win it means we have pole position and maybe a necessary cushion.