Not exactly a Derby. Away to The Rams, Sat 16th March 3-0'clock.

[Bertie Wooster]

XG this & XG that....is this what football has become !

We've won 4 out of the last 12, that's the stat that I'm more concerned about.

XG and possession hasn't helped us get the points we should have got since Xmas has it - what do points make ?

How would you track how well we are doing? Feelings?

Looking at xG and xGA is a business way of monitoring progression. Allardyce was lauded for being ahead based upon stats and metrics and approach and Evatt's doing similar things.

Winning 4 out of the last 12 is very short sighted, as is looking solely on the results. The performances have warranted more than we have got. Majority of the time we'd be seeing better results, the stats back that up aswell (those with a higher xG tend to score more than those that dont).

Results.

Okay, now apply that same logic at the start of the match (or 15 mins in if you would) and see how you get on.

I'm sorry you have totally lost me there.

[Mar]

XG this & XG that....is this what football has become !

We've won 4 out of the last 12, that's the stat that I'm more concerned about.

XG and possession hasn't helped us get the points we should have got since Xmas has it - what do points make ?

How would you track how well we are doing? Feelings?

Looking at xG and xGA is a business way of monitoring progression. Allardyce was lauded for being ahead based upon stats and metrics and approach and Evatt's doing similar things.

Winning 4 out of the last 12 is very short sighted, as is looking solely on the results. The performances have warranted more than we have got. Majority of the time we'd be seeing better results, the stats back that up aswell (those with a higher xG tend to score more than those that dont).

Results.

Okay, now apply that same logic at the start of the match (or 15 mins in if you would) and see how you get on.

I'm sorry you have totally lost me there.

Managers have to make decisions that affect games. You can't gauge how well you're doing in a match based upon previous games results. The only thing you have to go on is things that will help your ability to score (measured via xG). Evatt's doing that via the xG and other metrics.

Looking at previous results doesn't help the managers decision making.

[BWFC_Insane]

Let’s try this another way. Derby recognising that we are a good football side decided they would have to perform a rearguard action get numbers back and try and hurt us on set pieces. They ended up restricting the shots we had on target to the same they managed. So they did the job they set out to do. It wasn’t what one might call some great performance but the job was done and the points won.

So let’s imagine we end up playing a side who are also good at football like Peterborough in the play offs. Are we able to do what derby did for say the away leg. Change our game to soak the pressure up and hit on the break? Or are we saying our only approach is to hope we can play our game better than the opponents can play theirs?

Because derby certainly aren’t some football philosophers but they don’t sit as deep as they did against us week in week out. They picked a plan to try and win the game. Yes they needed a world class save from their keeper but that’s his job to an extent. And they minimised what he had to do. When we are purring and flying and the opposition can’t shake us off we are a delight. I’m asking about what we do to manage those games where we aren’t. Warne has built a career on being able to do that. But there are relatively few games I can think of where we’ve done anything different to win the game. Port Vale away maybe the only one.

[Worthy4England]

I don't think many are saying we shouldn't collect and use data and analysis. That would be pretty dumb on our part. But, that doesn't (for many) act as some sort of "how good are we?" proxy, whereas the thing that always tells you how good you are in a League, is how far up it you finish and what your points tally is. There doesn't need to be another measure, nor should there be.

Last season we were 5th best team. People might want to mitigate or denigrate whether that met, beat or failed to meet their expectations. But that's the measure, right there. I'm not sure where the notion that managers just "guessed at everything" prior to xG becoming a "thing." Stats can help decision making, but it's managers making the decisions - and that's where the differentiation is.

[irie Cee Bee]

The only thing I will say is that we dont seem to know how to change a game to win it. It seems like the gaffer pre plans his changes... "Forwards and wing backs, run yourselves to the ground. On the 70 min mark, we will change both forwards, a wingback and a midfielder at 75 mins". Predictable each game.

Warne made an enforced change in the first half... at half time he made 3 more as we were so dominant. Then he made another shortly before they scored. Thats all 5 subs. He found a way to win. Evatt is a good manager but I believe that's the area he needs to improve on. How to best utilize a good squad based on how the game is going. I am not saying this about this game in particular, but generally, we don't seem to be able to utilize our squad to get the results needed based on what is happening in the game if things are not going well.

[Mar]

The only thing I will say is that we dont seem to know how to change a game to win it. It seems like the gaffer pre plans his changes... "Forwards and wing backs, run yourselves to the ground. On the 70 min mark, we will change both forwards, a wingback and a midfielder at 75 mins". Predictable each game.

I think this is probably consistent across all Bolton fans. We look way too predictable and prescriptive. Teams that would've done their homework on us are certainly going to know how to approach our game for the entire 90 minutes.

Sure our approach makes it hard for them to play against us and sometimes they'll have to sit back and soak up pressure, but they know what they're doing, even if they might not necessarily be able to pull it off.

I'd like us to change things up a bit in this regard and presumably that's what we would've had if CMG hadn't been injured.

Maybe now Charles is getting back to fitness we'll see that as an option with Collins coming off the bench to ask a few questions out wide.

[boltonboris]

I saw no reason as to why we can't overturn a 4pt deficit on Derby to be honest.

They'll drop more points than we will in the run-in. There. I said it

[BWFC_Insane]

I saw no reason as to why we can't overturn a 4pt deficit on Derby to be honest.

They'll drop more points than we will in the run-in. There. I said it

If we were 4 points clear now I’d certainly not consider we were up so it’s very possible. I do think we would have to win 6 maybe 7 and that’s the harder part looking at our fixtures.

[Bertie Wooster]

I saw no reason as to why we can't overturn a 4pt deficit on Derby to be honest.

They'll drop more points than we will in the run-in. There. I said it

I'm sorry but our current form is poor 4 wins out of the last 12, what makes people think that all of a sudden we will win 7 out of 7 or even 6 out of 7 with Stevenage, Pompey & P/Boro still to play. I can't even see us winning at Stevenage.

The only possible saving grace is that I could see us winning at Wembley, however unfortunately I can't see us winning the play off semi - I really do hope I'm wrong, but personally I've seen little if any progress this season - the same issue's we had last season are still there & haven't unfortunately been addressed by IE, he is still blinkered in some areas of his football philosophy (IMO)

When we play well it's great i.e. Oxford, however as with last season its only 5-6 games a year when the team are fully on it - the lack of consistency, lack of tactical flexibility & mentality of the team in important games needs improving, this is only my opinion and I'm sure that many will disagree.

[Mar]

I saw no reason as to why we can't overturn a 4pt deficit on Derby to be honest.

They'll drop more points than we will in the run-in. There. I said it

Wishful thinking, I like it.

The Pompey games will be the deciding factor as to whether we can get back into it. Derby, despite looking on a par with us on Sat, look the more consistent performers.

We should be able to match them result wise, but we've fallen short so often that it'll take quite a turn around of our results to get that level of consistency from ourselves.

[boltonboris]

I saw no reason as to why we can't overturn a 4pt deficit on Derby to be honest.

They'll drop more points than we will in the run-in. There. I said it

I'm sorry but our current form is poor 4 wins out of the last 12, what makes people think that all of a sudden we will win 7 out of 7 or even 6 out of 7 with Stevenage, Pompey & P/Boro still to play. I can't even see us winning at Stevenage.

No need to apologise. The performances have picked up, therefore I believe results will follow.

[Worthy4England]

I think we certainly need to play the odds that if we won all 7 we'd give ourselves the best chance

Not to do so, would be pretty dumb - I think you only consider maybe resting a player for the playoffs is when they're the only alternative and you have a home tie second. There's 24 points to play for, for some teams. Stevenage could theoretically get 85? points and whilst you might not think that's favourite, then winning a minimum of 4 probably needs to happen for comfort factor. As Bertie said - that's at a better lick than we've been galloping at, over the last 12.

[boltonboris]

I saw no reason as to why we can't overturn a 4pt deficit on Derby to be honest.

They'll drop more points than we will in the run-in. There. I said it

Still sayin it

[BWFC_Insane]

I saw no reason as to why we can't overturn a 4pt deficit on Derby to be honest.

They'll drop more points than we will in the run-in. There. I said it

Still sayin it

So long as it’s 5 more….

[boltonboris]

I saw no reason as to why we can't overturn a 4pt deficit on Derby to be honest.

They'll drop more points than we will in the run-in. There. I said it

Still sayin it

So long as it’s 5 more….

You genuinely don’t want us to do it do you

[BWFC_Insane]

I saw no reason as to why we can't overturn a 4pt deficit on Derby to be honest.

They'll drop more points than we will in the run-in. There. I said it

Still sayin it

So long as it’s 5 more….

You genuinely don’t want us to do it do you

Eh? 5 more than us and we would do it.

Do you really genuinely think I wouldn’t want us to go up? Seriously?

[boltonboris]

I don’t know. You do seem like you revel more in defeats than wins. I get it though, you mentally prepare yourself for failure so you’re not too disappointed when it happens. It’s natural mate. I’ve only just started forcing myself to be positive.

[BWFC_Insane]

I don’t know. You do seem like you revel more in defeats than wins. I get it though, you mentally prepare yourself for failure so you’re not too disappointed when it happens. It’s natural mate. I’ve only just started forcing myself to be positive.

Yeah well. Exactly. I don’t think it’s natural though it’s just how it is. Too old to retrain my brain. Still expecting the Tories to win the next election too. If you expect the worst, worst case you can’t be disappointed!

[Mar]

Great news regarding the Derby game. Saw that as an easy win for Derby so to see them unsettled is good. They've got Blackpool at home and Portsmouth away so there's more at stake.

We're still back to winning our games to make it count.

If we beat Portsmouth and Derby beat Portsmouth we'll be three points behind with a better goal difference. If Derby fail to beat Portsmouth then we'll be in for a shout of leapfrogging Derby.

Win our games and we've got a chance.

It's asking a lot, but at this stage of the season it's to be expected.