Today I'm angry about.....

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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:41 pm

dave the minion wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:26 am
Don't disagree with most of that, however I would add a dose of reality to it: depending on who you listen to and who you believe, we either didn't go into lockdown soon enough, or it was too soon? We either came out of lock down too soon or too late? Closing schools and public transport is either the right thing to do or the wrong thing to do.
The honest truth of this whole shit show is that there simply isn't a right answer - no matter who you are and what you think is right there will be evidence to the contrary somewhere.
If we go into national lockdown and shut schools and businesses then you open up the other issues - which are real - of people's mental health, kids lack of education & economic ruin. If you keep them open then we have to operate in this weird bubble of localised restrictions and kids being sent home and people having to self isolate.
There's no magic wand to fix this. Time and a vaccine will make it peter out, but its here and there is no standard protocol to deal with it as its unprecedented in modern times.
Personally I'm sick of everyone blaming the government but then coming up with nothing better as to how they could have dealt with it. I'm not a Tory and don't care for politics in the slightest, but it is getting very tedious hearing the leaders of the home countries and different political parties point scoring constantly but offering nothing in return. Don't see how they can't just all put party differences aside for the greater good and agree one coherent approach - it might not be the right one and there will be others who dispute it, but at least it would help with communication.
And don't get me started on the media.......
But nobody is criticising the total mess we’ve made of it without being very clear what should have and now should happen.

We were slow to lockdown. We all know it. It’s why we had such a horrendous death toll. Whilst other countries were locked down we had Cheltenham going ahead with hundreds of thousands (shall we look at Tory party’s links to horse racing?) football and large events carried on. Now look they were told by the science. They were slow. Ok. It was hard to know what would happen.

The lockdown drove case numbers down. But then we came out of it in a worse position than most other countries and our numbers weren’t as low. We rushed it against the evidence elsewhere. And in September case numbers were going up yet the government again against the advice of their scientists were urging people back into work places for no good reason given those people had worked from home very successfully to this point. Finally as case numbers got out of control the need to lockdown again was obvious yet it has been ignored again to pursue an approach that again the scientists advising the government have told them won’t work.

So to suggest there hasn’t been clear advice, clear and obvious suggestions is IMHO nonsense.

That’s before we get onto the obvious loss of any control they had when they let the eye test excuse go. Or when they promised a world beating track and trace system, ignoring successful models in other countries to pursue a system run by private sector friends of the Tory party at exorbitant cost and with massive and comprehensive failure. Again they were told to copy the South Korea system. Instead they handed the deals out to their cronies. Dido Harding who has failed in a string of high paid jobs is parachuted in and guess what, fails again at huge national cost. Yet she and a lot of serco execs are being paid amounts that make you eyes, ears and brain bleed. Yet what happens, they carry on being paid whilst the North of England and starving kids are told to suck it up.

So we’ve not even mentioned the ridiculous death toll. Huge numbers of preventable deaths or the policy from govt of discharging patients into nursing homes without a Covid test. Yeah.

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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by Gooner Girl » Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:08 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:49 am
Worthy4England wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:02 am
I think the older you are, the more serious people take it. (I have no evidence for this wild assertion). I think we're in a place now where the guidance "following the science" has now got more confused and is also driven by a healthy dose of economics, so people are taking their own "risk" views based on their view of the world. If the government determine I can get on a bus and a train to go work in a factory for 8 hours, then going to the pub for 3 hours is minor league.

We're told evidentially that Pubs not serving food is bad, but the same pub with the same layout, if it serves pasty and chips is ok. We should probably draw from that, the conclusion that pasty and chips stops COVID.

Whilst people are being told to work from home, it's fine to use public transport to go to a workplace and hope they're following COVID safety rules - I suspect reputable companies will try to do this and unreputable companies won't. This apparently has negligible effect on transmission.

Schools and Colleges are fine, yet we've seen whole swathes of colleges, universities locked down and schools are sending lots of people home or entire classes to self isolate. We're told that pubs are causing the spikes, yet plague carrying 7 year olds coming back into a home setting is having no effect whatsoever. I don't believe it. Produced evidence on this is pretty scant too.

The upshot of all this is that pubs and gyms (recently recinded) have to shut, whilst workplaces and educational establishments stay open - I've not seen any evidence around this to show it's the right approach and given they've been asked a few times to produce it, I suspect it's a blag.

I agree broadly, with the localised approach. I don't think it'd be right at this juncture to apply the same rules to the South East as the North West - so I'm not convinced a national lockdown works at this stage. I do think we need to be taking more stringent measures in the North West, I think a firebreak approach would be a good idea locally, with additional financial support for low paid workers - which is what the Burnham spat with Government was about.
I don't agree about localised approaches for a few reasons -

1) Cases are going up in every region. Yes some are at lower levels initially and rising more slowly - but they're still rising. And the nature of the viral spread is that as you gain more cases the rate of spread also increases.
2) We can look elsewhere at what has worked and frankly the tier 3 measures are not substantive enough to actually be effective. The governments own scientific advisors concede this. But Australia show the sorts of very strict measures needed to drive the case numbers down to a level where you can very slowly open up (we ballsed this up the first time round opening up far too quickly and too soon).
3) Whilst a country like Australia can take a more regionalised approach we need to look at how small we are comparatively, how densely populated and also how much movement we have - far far more than Australia who actually did lock regions down and prevented most movement. Here, if you lock GM down - what about people moving from GM to elsewhere - no control on that and you're talking a lot of people - and a lot of scenarios you couldn't stop even if you wanted to.
4) Local approaches are adhered to less. National lockdown was ultimately applied to everyone so all felt a duty. Whereas local measures are ignored more - speaking to PH leader they felt the data was pretty clear on this.
5) Local stuff by its nature becomes more confusing because the scenarios are wider. What if you work outside the area but live inside it - or visa versa...and then that needs caveats if you aren't closing schools etc....it becomes very very confusing for people.
See, I disagree about the need for a national lockdown. I live in fairly rural Sussex, our cases are something like 48 per 100k, well under half the national average. Life for us is fairly normal at the moment. The disease here doesn’t seem prevalent at all, I don’t know anyone that has had it seriously, much less died from it. Obviously we locked down when things were far worse in the spring and were happy to do so but for Mid Sussex to do so now would seem pointless. The kids are back at school, back at clubs, kids football matches are happening, we can visit the library, the leisure centres have reopened, the shops are relatively normal other then the usual restrictions with numbers/masks etc. Most (but not all) of life is happening as normal. For us to go back into lockdown would be doable (so long as schools stay open this time!) but totally unnecessary imho - when you think about the effect it would have on local businesses and jobs it just doesn’t bear thinking about. Surely at some point during all this you have to balance out the effect on the economy and people’s mental health compared to theIt physical health and right now, here, the balance is overwhelmingly that the health risk is low compared to what would happen adversely to the community if we went back into another full lockdown. If cases went up here big time, absolutely lock down - but I don’t see why businesses here should be hugely affected negatively because of what is happening in other parts of the country. Its not a case of ‘well I’m alright Jack’ I just don’t think the small cafe in the village having to shut will have a massive effect On Ye Olde People care home corona virus cases in Manchester.

That’s not to say I don’t think the government have totally ballsed this all up and the rules are stupid and inconsistent at times because they are.

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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by dave the minion » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:11 am

Every government in every country has "f*cked it up" if you listen to locals. Don't forget, our press love to have a pop regardless of who did what, whilst putting our neighbours in a better light. I work closely with colleagues from France, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden and the US and every one of them is hugely critical of how their respective governments have handled it.

For every person / science that says lockdown was too late, there's another that says it was too early. Same with stepping out of lockdown, schools blah blah blah.

The brutal truth is that there is no nice easy solution to any of this and nobody knows how to handle it. Its unprecedented in modern times and people are finding their way through it. I don't envy any government trying to balance the conflicting needs of the nation's health and economy, whilst receiving conflicting advice from so called experts. Add into the mix the fact that for every bit of guidance issued there is a large group of people who go out of their way to disobey and whatever you do you've got a sh1tstorm on your hands.
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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:16 am

Gooner Girl wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:08 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:49 am
Worthy4England wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:02 am
I think the older you are, the more serious people take it. (I have no evidence for this wild assertion). I think we're in a place now where the guidance "following the science" has now got more confused and is also driven by a healthy dose of economics, so people are taking their own "risk" views based on their view of the world. If the government determine I can get on a bus and a train to go work in a factory for 8 hours, then going to the pub for 3 hours is minor league.

We're told evidentially that Pubs not serving food is bad, but the same pub with the same layout, if it serves pasty and chips is ok. We should probably draw from that, the conclusion that pasty and chips stops COVID.

Whilst people are being told to work from home, it's fine to use public transport to go to a workplace and hope they're following COVID safety rules - I suspect reputable companies will try to do this and unreputable companies won't. This apparently has negligible effect on transmission.

Schools and Colleges are fine, yet we've seen whole swathes of colleges, universities locked down and schools are sending lots of people home or entire classes to self isolate. We're told that pubs are causing the spikes, yet plague carrying 7 year olds coming back into a home setting is having no effect whatsoever. I don't believe it. Produced evidence on this is pretty scant too.

The upshot of all this is that pubs and gyms (recently recinded) have to shut, whilst workplaces and educational establishments stay open - I've not seen any evidence around this to show it's the right approach and given they've been asked a few times to produce it, I suspect it's a blag.

I agree broadly, with the localised approach. I don't think it'd be right at this juncture to apply the same rules to the South East as the North West - so I'm not convinced a national lockdown works at this stage. I do think we need to be taking more stringent measures in the North West, I think a firebreak approach would be a good idea locally, with additional financial support for low paid workers - which is what the Burnham spat with Government was about.
I don't agree about localised approaches for a few reasons -

1) Cases are going up in every region. Yes some are at lower levels initially and rising more slowly - but they're still rising. And the nature of the viral spread is that as you gain more cases the rate of spread also increases.
2) We can look elsewhere at what has worked and frankly the tier 3 measures are not substantive enough to actually be effective. The governments own scientific advisors concede this. But Australia show the sorts of very strict measures needed to drive the case numbers down to a level where you can very slowly open up (we ballsed this up the first time round opening up far too quickly and too soon).
3) Whilst a country like Australia can take a more regionalised approach we need to look at how small we are comparatively, how densely populated and also how much movement we have - far far more than Australia who actually did lock regions down and prevented most movement. Here, if you lock GM down - what about people moving from GM to elsewhere - no control on that and you're talking a lot of people - and a lot of scenarios you couldn't stop even if you wanted to.
4) Local approaches are adhered to less. National lockdown was ultimately applied to everyone so all felt a duty. Whereas local measures are ignored more - speaking to PH leader they felt the data was pretty clear on this.
5) Local stuff by its nature becomes more confusing because the scenarios are wider. What if you work outside the area but live inside it - or visa versa...and then that needs caveats if you aren't closing schools etc....it becomes very very confusing for people.
See, I disagree about the need for a national lockdown. I live in fairly rural Sussex, our cases are something like 48 per 100k, well under half the national average. Life for us is fairly normal at the moment. The disease here doesn’t seem prevalent at all, I don’t know anyone that has had it seriously, much less died from it. Obviously we locked down when things were far worse in the spring and were happy to do so but for Mid Sussex to do so now would seem pointless. The kids are back at school, back at clubs, kids football matches are happening, we can visit the library, the leisure centres have reopened, the shops are relatively normal other then the usual restrictions with numbers/masks etc. Most (but not all) of life is happening as normal. For us to go back into lockdown would be doable (so long as schools stay open this time!) but totally unnecessary imho - when you think about the effect it would have on local businesses and jobs it just doesn’t bear thinking about. Surely at some point during all this you have to balance out the effect on the economy and people’s mental health compared to theIt physical health and right now, here, the balance is overwhelmingly that the health risk is low compared to what would happen adversely to the community if we went back into another full lockdown. If cases went up here big time, absolutely lock down - but I don’t see why businesses here should be hugely affected negatively because of what is happening in other parts of the country. Its not a case of ‘well I’m alright Jack’ I just don’t think the small cafe in the village having to shut will have a massive effect On Ye Olde People care home corona virus cases in Manchester.

That’s not to say I don’t think the government have totally ballsed this all up and the rules are stupid and inconsistent at times because they are.
Thanks for an alternative view. Certainly sounds nice there comparatively and obviously the case numbers are lower. I guess my counter point to that is - your cases were probably lower in March when we went into lockdown and the numbers per 100,000 very much depends where arbitrary borders are drawn by LA designation. But I do see that view entirely. The problem for me is that whilst there are of course some more rural communities where things feel very fine it is a question of where a line is or isn't drawn. Because for example people move and we know from the pattern of the virus spread that one person can unwittingly spark of super spreading events. And its not uncommon for people to decide to wander off to the lakes or devon or cornwall etc...If cases are going up nationally and across all regions then its all our problem and for me collectively we should bring the cases down to a far lower level.

From that point - I think then it is about tailoring how you open up on an area by area basis and ensuring that you don't rush to pile people back into city centres as per last time but more remote settings could return to close to normality very quickly.

The main issue with not doing a national lockdown is that the areas that might genuinely not have rising cases, are not defined, not easy to exempt and not very clear. For example you have a big problem in Exeter - I suspect virtually no problem in remote Devon hamlets and something in between probably in their towns. How do you unpick that - its impossible.

If as in Australia you genuinely had Geography where you could lock down a region and stop people coming in and out - then yeah it would be a different situation and scenario.

That's just my feeling.

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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:23 am

dave the minion wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:11 am
Every government in every country has "f*cked it up" if you listen to locals. Don't forget, our press love to have a pop regardless of who did what, whilst putting our neighbours in a better light. I work closely with colleagues from France, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden and the US and every one of them is hugely critical of how their respective governments have handled it.

For every person / science that says lockdown was too late, there's another that says it was too early. Same with stepping out of lockdown, schools blah blah blah.

The brutal truth is that there is no nice easy solution to any of this and nobody knows how to handle it. Its unprecedented in modern times and people are finding their way through it. I don't envy any government trying to balance the conflicting needs of the nation's health and economy, whilst receiving conflicting advice from so called experts. Add into the mix the fact that for every bit of guidance issued there is a large group of people who go out of their way to disobey and whatever you do you've got a sh1tstorm on your hands.
Again that isn't true. Only two major countries have a higher percentage of people dissatisfied with their government's handling of the crisis than satisfied with it - shall we take a wild guess? Yep...you're right.

Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Australia, South Korea and Japan all have hugely favourable ratings for their handling. And lets also note the government in NZ just won an unprecedented majority on the back of their handling.

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-c ... _FINAL.pdf

UK and USA by the way......

It seems quite clear - there are two places where the majority of people feel the government have really fecked this up.

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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by Gooner Girl » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:55 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:16 am

Thanks for an alternative view. Certainly sounds nice there comparatively and obviously the case numbers are lower. I guess my counter point to that is - your cases were probably lower in March when we went into lockdown and the numbers per 100,000 very much depends where arbitrary borders are drawn by LA designation. But I do see that view entirely. The problem for me is that whilst there are of course some more rural communities where things feel very fine it is a question of where a line is or isn't drawn. Because for example people move and we know from the pattern of the virus spread that one person can unwittingly spark of super spreading events. And its not uncommon for people to decide to wander off to the lakes or devon or cornwall etc...If cases are going up nationally and across all regions then its all our problem and for me collectively we should bring the cases down to a far lower level.

From that point - I think then it is about tailoring how you open up on an area by area basis and ensuring that you don't rush to pile people back into city centres as per last time but more remote settings could return to close to normality very quickly.

The main issue with not doing a national lockdown is that the areas that might genuinely not have rising cases, are not defined, not easy to exempt and not very clear. For example you have a big problem in Exeter - I suspect virtually no problem in remote Devon hamlets and something in between probably in their towns. How do you unpick that - its impossible.

If as in Australia you genuinely had Geography where you could lock down a region and stop people coming in and out - then yeah it would be a different situation and scenario.

That's just my feeling.
If we look broader then my rural part of Sussex to the whole of Sussex, East and West, as two counties it only really has one city (I don’t count Chichester, it may have a cathedral but it’s cases are even lower then here) so Brighton. Just looked it up. Cases are 95 per 100k so still under the national average. I do see your point about people moving/holidaying etc (we have Gatwick airport on our doorstep) but I still struggle to agree that two big counties should be locked down entirely when the stats are still pretty low. I’m not sure we can compare the situation back in March as whilst the case numbers might seem higher now they probably were far higher here in March, it’s just the lack of testing then compared to now makes it hard to draw any conclusions. That said, a month or so back my husband tried to get a test and was told the nearest place was Southampton (a couple of hours drive) so maybe there have been more cases here unrecognised as testing isn’t as easily accessible down here as it is up north where I presume at the moment you can get a test with relative ease?

I don’t think there’s any easy answer here, it’s all a big juggle but I am not sure another national lockdown is the right answer. It may help slow the virus but what price will it have for the rest of ‘life’ as we know it? With the Devon problem i’d just lockdown Exeter?!

Arsene Wenger for PM. He’d sort this whole mess out!

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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by dave the minion » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:07 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:23 am

Again that isn't true. Only two major countries have a higher percentage of people dissatisfied with their government's handling of the crisis than satisfied with it - shall we take a wild guess? Yep...you're right.

Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Australia, South Korea and Japan all have hugely favourable ratings for their handling. And lets also note the government in NZ just won an unprecedented majority on the back of their handling.

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-c ... _FINAL.pdf

UK and USA by the way......

It seems quite clear - there are two places where the majority of people feel the government have really fecked this up.
Fine, you win. I'll ring all my colleagues or get them on a Zoom call and tell them all that they are either stupid or liars shall I? I mean, if the market research agencies tell a different story then who am I to argue with their "facts"? I won't remind you of the expected outcomes of the Brexit negotiations to show how accurate market researchers can be. And plus, we all know and understand the unequivocal research that tells us 8 out of 10 cats prefer Whiskers don't we - I mean anyone out there who thinks Felix or Aldi cat food is superior is clearly an idiot.....

In any case, regardless of what you believe or don't, or what anti or pro government agenda we all want to push, the fact of the matter is that we are in a shit situation and finger pointing and name calling isn't going to help. Whatever Boris and his cronies advise, labour and Scotland and god knows who else will criticise and suggest the opposite - doesn't matter what it is as long as they have a different view. Either way, its both pointless, pathetic & childish.

In unprecedented times why can't they all sit in a room with their advisors and agree on a common approach - whatever it is - and communicate this to us so we're all clear. We might not like it but we'd all be clear. And then the real focus could be put onto how to deal with the situation rather than gas-bagging and one-up-man-ship
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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by dave the minion » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:15 am

Just had a look at the report you linked to as well. I take it all back, it MUST be true what they state.

I mean how could it be an inaccurate representation at all when they interviewed a whopping 14,276 people from a total population pool of c. 940 million over a total of 14 countries......
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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by dave the minion » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:21 am

dave the minion wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:15 am
Just had a look at the report you linked to as well. I take it all back, it MUST be true what they state.

I mean how could it be an inaccurate representation at all when they interviewed a whopping 14,276 people from a total population pool of c. 940 million over a total of 14 countries......
"It seems quite clear - there are two places where the majority of people feel the government have really fecked this up."

Maybe you need to re-write the last line of your previous post (above) as:

" It seems anything but clear at all: a random reports claims to state that there are two places - out of only 14 in the whole wide world that they bothered to check - where the majority of an overwhelmingly miniscule sample size of people (0.002% of the population) feel that the government have only done a tiny bit worse than average job of dealing with the crisis"
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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:49 am

dave the minion wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:15 am
Just had a look at the report you linked to as well. I take it all back, it MUST be true what they state.

I mean how could it be an inaccurate representation at all when they interviewed a whopping 14,276 people from a total population pool of c. 940 million over a total of 14 countries......
So I assume your own polling, has a larger sample, representatively drawn from those countries - perhaps you'd kindly share your sampling data and significance?

Or is this the usual case of 'I reckon' then when presented with the data doubling down on the anecdotal, confirmation biased, 'I reckon'.

If you do have better data and a more robust sampling methodology than the report I linked then I apologise. But if you do then I'd be glad to read it!

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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:01 am

Gooner Girl wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:55 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:16 am

Thanks for an alternative view. Certainly sounds nice there comparatively and obviously the case numbers are lower. I guess my counter point to that is - your cases were probably lower in March when we went into lockdown and the numbers per 100,000 very much depends where arbitrary borders are drawn by LA designation. But I do see that view entirely. The problem for me is that whilst there are of course some more rural communities where things feel very fine it is a question of where a line is or isn't drawn. Because for example people move and we know from the pattern of the virus spread that one person can unwittingly spark of super spreading events. And its not uncommon for people to decide to wander off to the lakes or devon or cornwall etc...If cases are going up nationally and across all regions then its all our problem and for me collectively we should bring the cases down to a far lower level.

From that point - I think then it is about tailoring how you open up on an area by area basis and ensuring that you don't rush to pile people back into city centres as per last time but more remote settings could return to close to normality very quickly.

The main issue with not doing a national lockdown is that the areas that might genuinely not have rising cases, are not defined, not easy to exempt and not very clear. For example you have a big problem in Exeter - I suspect virtually no problem in remote Devon hamlets and something in between probably in their towns. How do you unpick that - its impossible.

If as in Australia you genuinely had Geography where you could lock down a region and stop people coming in and out - then yeah it would be a different situation and scenario.

That's just my feeling.
If we look broader then my rural part of Sussex to the whole of Sussex, East and West, as two counties it only really has one city (I don’t count Chichester, it may have a cathedral but it’s cases are even lower then here) so Brighton. Just looked it up. Cases are 95 per 100k so still under the national average. I do see your point about people moving/holidaying etc (we have Gatwick airport on our doorstep) but I still struggle to agree that two big counties should be locked down entirely when the stats are still pretty low. I’m not sure we can compare the situation back in March as whilst the case numbers might seem higher now they probably were far higher here in March, it’s just the lack of testing then compared to now makes it hard to draw any conclusions. That said, a month or so back my husband tried to get a test and was told the nearest place was Southampton (a couple of hours drive) so maybe there have been more cases here unrecognised as testing isn’t as easily accessible down here as it is up north where I presume at the moment you can get a test with relative ease?

I don’t think there’s any easy answer here, it’s all a big juggle but I am not sure another national lockdown is the right answer. It may help slow the virus but what price will it have for the rest of ‘life’ as we know it? With the Devon problem i’d just lockdown Exeter?!

Arsene Wenger for PM. He’d sort this whole mess out!
Ha! On locking down Exeter - can I ask how that would work in practice - given we know rates are high in and around the city compared to the rest of the county - how wide do you draw that circle? Do you stop people leaving the city - or coming in? How do you stop people who live in the boundary from getting bored and sneaking to local areas where businesses are open? How do you manage the creep as people start to stretch the rules because only a few miles away their mates are out in the pub?

That's the problem I have - it sounds nonsensical to restrict people in areas with low rates. But in practice I'm not sure there is an easy way to manage it on a different basis without some significant infrastructure put in place - you'd probably be looking at closing routes in and out of areas entirely to stop the natural creep out you get in that scenario.

I agree there is no easy answer - no trick that will work. The fundamental thing we did wrong was coming out of the initial lockdown too quickly - it should have been phased. I'm sure where you are you could have come out quite easily but in the NW the disease was still spreading at far too fast a rate. There needed to be a much slower and more phased plan because my overriding view is the only way to really tackle this is to find a permanent way of life that keeps the disease in check - since we simply do not know how long any solution may be or whether one may ever present itself. So for me defining what MUST be open at all costs, like schools and health providers - and then working out what other things were possible to be open alongside them to keep the R down - this was all measurable post lockdown if we'd done it carefully and slowly. Ultimately the data is there to know what impact opening hairdressers has or pubs - to a fair degree of confidence. So if we'd been a bit more cautious and taken a more stepped local approach in July I feel we'd be in a better position now to really a) not have such high numbers and b) know exactly what and when and where we need restrictions on. As it is we're guessing.

For me and I'm somewhat ashamed to admit this but I found lockdown fine - it wasn't fun or amazing but it was tolerable. What I've found since then is my mental health is all over the place (and I've never had any MH issues ever, not once) because of the constant stress of changes in rules, changes in the situation that impact on my work, my staff, my family, my home life, my plans and it has got to the point where I feel constantly like I'm on a cliff edge. I hate myself for even writing this guff. But its just reached a point where I'd prefer certainty and clarity and the only way I can personally have that is if we just lockdown. I am being selfish but frankly the whole thing has become a huge weight for me personally - and I can't be alone in that.

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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by dave the minion » Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:07 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:49 am
dave the minion wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:15 am
Just had a look at the report you linked to as well. I take it all back, it MUST be true what they state.

I mean how could it be an inaccurate representation at all when they interviewed a whopping 14,276 people from a total population pool of c. 940 million over a total of 14 countries......
So I assume your own polling, has a larger sample, representatively drawn from those countries - perhaps you'd kindly share your sampling data and significance?

Or is this the usual case of 'I reckon' then when presented with the data doubling down on the anecdotal, confirmation biased, 'I reckon'.

If you do have better data and a more robust sampling methodology than the report I linked then I apologise. But if you do then I'd be glad to read it!
Ha - of course I don't have a larger or better sample, and even if I did it would just as easily be open to criticism as any other sample.

The point I was making was simply that you offered up what appears to be an extremely limited report (haven't read it all, so I happily stand corrected if I'm wrong) as unequivocal evidence to support your opinions with language such as:

"Again that isn't true. " - based on your report
"It seems quite clear " - based on your report

You have a strong opinion on what has happened in our country and a clear wish to blame and finger point - that's fine and that's what makes us a wonderful species and the world a great place as we can debate these issues. As it happens I don't disagree with most of what you say, I just don't see the point in blaming people and claiming to know better than others. I also think a healthy dose of realism should be tolerated at the moment - no government in any country was prepared for the scale of what happened and none of them actually knew how to deal with it correctly. Some went down different paths, some had better success rates, some had worse. Christ, I expect half the countries in the world have fared far far worse than we have but have just suppressed the true information.

The issue I take is with your insistence that your opinion is right and other people's is wrong. Your opinion might be right, but you lose creditability when you try to back it up with "proof" that is actually no better than my sample of 6 colleagues I work with....
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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by dave the minion » Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:16 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:01 am

For me and I'm somewhat ashamed to admit this but I found lockdown fine - it wasn't fun or amazing but it was tolerable. What I've found since then is my mental health is all over the place (and I've never had any MH issues ever, not once) because of the constant stress of changes in rules, changes in the situation that impact on my work, my staff, my family, my home life, my plans and it has got to the point where I feel constantly like I'm on a cliff edge. I hate myself for even writing this guff. But its just reached a point where I'd prefer certainty and clarity and the only way I can personally have that is if we just lockdown. I am being selfish but frankly the whole thing has become a huge weight for me personally - and I can't be alone in that.
And on this I 100% agree on and I feel your pain - as do a significant amount of others I suspect.

Perversely I quite enjoyed lockdown: I am very fortunate that I have a job that made me busier than ever so financial worries were avoided, I have a house with a garden so we could enjoy the weather whilst being house-bound and play out with my son, and as a family we re-engaged on a lot of activities that we had forgotten in the chaos of normal life before. However, I accept I was one of the lucky ones and I feel for others who were not so fortunate.

However, more recently I've just had a general "meh" feeling about everything. The weather's cr@p, the prospects of autumn & Xmas (a time I normally love as our family has Xmas itself and 4 birthdays) are cr@p, the football's cr@p, I'm constantly knackered as working hard and not been able to have a decent holiday (1st world problem I know..), etc etc. I think fundamentally I'm just really really bored with the whole thing. As a responsible person I will always try to adhere to whatever rules are out there, but I'm just sick of it all now....
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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by dave the minion » Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:22 pm

I also agree that I think for my own sanity I'd prefer the certainty of a full lockdown. Don't get me wrong, I don't think its the right answer and economically it would shaft us even more, but i agree that at least knowing life is going to be limited again for a period would at least help me get to grips with it. Even simple things in life like managing my lad's football team is bringing on inordinate amounts of stress - having to train in away that's covid-secure, no spectators allowed at matches, then only 2, then 3, now none again. Matches cancelled as teams have kids self isolating etc etc is a nightmare - and thats just kids football!!! Then what the f*ck are we supposed to do when one of us gets a bit of a cough or a temperature? Book a test, self isolate and cancel plans until the results come in, find out (thankfully) they are negative but then you've changed all your plans and your kids are going nuts as you've kept them off school!!!
Selfish I know - and there's many many people far far worse off than me - but at least during lockdown we all knew the score!.

And the worst thing - I'm ashamed to admit I'm even now starting to miss the Saturday night Zoom quiz night we had - over the summer it stopped as we were allowed out, but now no one can quite go out but we don't feel stuck in, so interactions with freinds are less than they were!!
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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:23 pm

dave the minion wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:07 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:49 am
dave the minion wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:15 am
Just had a look at the report you linked to as well. I take it all back, it MUST be true what they state.

I mean how could it be an inaccurate representation at all when they interviewed a whopping 14,276 people from a total population pool of c. 940 million over a total of 14 countries......
So I assume your own polling, has a larger sample, representatively drawn from those countries - perhaps you'd kindly share your sampling data and significance?

Or is this the usual case of 'I reckon' then when presented with the data doubling down on the anecdotal, confirmation biased, 'I reckon'.

If you do have better data and a more robust sampling methodology than the report I linked then I apologise. But if you do then I'd be glad to read it!
Ha - of course I don't have a larger or better sample, and even if I did it would just as easily be open to criticism as any other sample.

The point I was making was simply that you offered up what appears to be an extremely limited report (haven't read it all, so I happily stand corrected if I'm wrong) as unequivocal evidence to support your opinions with language such as:

"Again that isn't true. " - based on your report
"It seems quite clear " - based on your report

You have a strong opinion on what has happened in our country and a clear wish to blame and finger point - that's fine and that's what makes us a wonderful species and the world a great place as we can debate these issues. As it happens I don't disagree with most of what you say, I just don't see the point in blaming people and claiming to know better than others. I also think a healthy dose of realism should be tolerated at the moment - no government in any country was prepared for the scale of what happened and none of them actually knew how to deal with it correctly. Some went down different paths, some had better success rates, some had worse. Christ, I expect half the countries in the world have fared far far worse than we have but have just suppressed the true information.

The issue I take is with your insistence that your opinion is right and other people's is wrong. Your opinion might be right, but you lose creditability when you try to back it up with "proof" that is actually no better than my sample of 6 colleagues I work with....
You can have whatever opinion you want. What I take issue with is statements like 'its the same everywhere' with no evidence yet when presented with a fairly robust piece of research that suggests that is wrong trying to double down.

I also take issue with 'people criticising the government have no alternative' - when factually we know that is not correct.

There was huge and broad support for the initial lockdown. Because everyone agreed and it was led by science. And if the only mistake that had been made was locking down too late - then sure we'd all probably be behind it.

But the issue that critics of the government have is a) they are according to their own statements trying to suppress the virus - that is their priority BUT b) to do so they are now ignoring the science from their own advisors and pursuing a course of extreme hardship for large swathes of the country with the scientific community fairly sure that the measures won't work in the long run.

That's not me doing an "I reckon" or some massive hindsight. Labour have broadly backed the measures the government took until the point at which they have massively diverged from science to do some sort of pseudo ineffective local approach that has been going on for months with no result. Its at this point that Labour say - lets listen to Whitty et al look at how things have been handled elsewhere and take an evidenced based approach to take a full lockdown for 3 weeks and re-assess where we are after that. SAGE recommended this. Its not like the government haven't got an alternative. They just are choosing not to take it. And the fear is now we'll be stuck in tier 3 or worse for months and months on end, London will be protected and we'll be left up here with no real measures to drive the incidence levels down and no real attempt to do so.

It is absolutely fine to have a different opinion and think the government's approach is right and that they should just abandon the science base and do their own thing. But the issue I have is you claiming people are criticising them with no alternative - the alternatives are frequently mentioned and by the governments own scientific advisory group.

What I'd ask you is do you think the government handing out billions of pounds to Tory Donors, mates of Dominic Cummings and Boris - is an accident - that they just did the best they could? That putting through emergency legislation to allow them to bypass procurement rules and then dish the cash out like they have was just 'them doing their best'? And do you think that when they were for example, strongly advised to follow the South Korean track and trace model - a model we had planned for in this country back as far as 2008 - devolving track and trace down to PHE and local public health hubs - and yet ignored that advice and just pumped the money into friends of the Tory party paid exorbitant fees and Serco - do you think that was just them 'doing their best'?

The public support was pretty good following lockdown - even when Boris and co were accused of being too slow. I think sympathy was with them. Everyone knew the incredibly difficult scenarios. But it is what has happened since where I don't think anyone can say hand on heart in comparison to the rest of the world we can say anything other than 'disgrace'. That's my opinion. And I hold it very strongly. I do accept others may think differently. But I'd suggest the evidence is there to support what I say.

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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by dave the minion » Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:47 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:23 pm

It is absolutely fine to have a different opinion and think the government's approach is right and that they should just abandon the science base and do their own thing. But the issue I have is you claiming people are criticising them with no alternative - the alternatives are frequently mentioned and by the governments own scientific advisory group.

.....


What I'd ask you is do you think the government handing out billions of pounds to Tory Donors, mates of Dominic Cummings and Boris - is an accident - that they just did the best they could? That putting through emergency legislation to allow them to bypass procurement rules and then dish the cash out like they have was just 'them doing their best'? And do you think that when they were for example, strongly advised to follow the South Korean track and trace model - a model we had planned for in this country back as far as 2008 - devolving track and trace down to PHE and local public health hubs - and yet ignored that advice and just pumped the money into friends of the Tory party paid exorbitant fees and Serco - do you think that was just them 'doing their best'?

I suppose where I am on all this - and I'd be the first to admit I have zero time for politics - is that I'm sure some of what the current government has done is wrong - perhaps lots of it and in some cases very wrong. However, I'm also sure that a different government would also have done some things wrong and very wrong, just maybe different wrong (if you know what I mean!), and there would have been just as many critics waiting in the wings for them....

Whatever any government does the one thing that is certain is that the opposition and its followers will shoot it down and say there is something better that could have been done. This will be the case regardless of which party proposed which measures, and this is what pees me off about the eejuts we are talking about. I read something yesterday - which may be right or may be made up (can't remember the details) - quoting Andy Burnham early in the pandemic criticising the government for putting the economy over the health of the people, yet he has now just been in a battle with the government to get more money before he considers people's health. This is not a pop at him or the GM situation- and its probably inaccurate - but more an example of the kind of behaviour that goes on.

I've just read that Scotland have introduced a 5 tier system of alert. WTF - when you read it its basically the same as England's 3 tier system, with a higher end that will only be used in extreme (=total lockdown maybe) and a lower end which is basically pre-restrictions. So basically they are in agreement with a 3 tier system, but they'll call it 5 tiers so they are not actually agreeing with the government, even if they are!!!

Its pathetic. One mantra I've always worked to in my career which I don't think has ever failed is "keep it simple" - thats all I - and I think most of us - are asking for. One set of rules, communicated by all parties as one - and then we're all in it together!!!
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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by Abdoulaye's Twin » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:16 pm

Up in Scotland it does feel that Nicola has done a better job of things than Boris. Just watched her Coronavirus Update and it is in stark contrast to Boris. She seems to me to be trying to explain decisions and treating us as adults rather than children to wag a finger at. The worrying thing for the UK is that lots of folk like me that do not support the SNP or independence currently feel like we'd be better off without the Westminster government. Largely this is down to seeing Nicola as significantly more competent that anyone in Westminster. The arguments for staying in the UK in 2016 feel largely redundant, even if in reality they aren't. Without fairly significant change I can see independence being a reality in the not too distant future.

As far as lock downs go. You don't get much more rural than here (3 hour drive to the shops). We were hit quite hard with the care home down the road having 10 deaths. These were relatives of my customers and some former customers (before entering the home). One of the care workers (a customer of mine) broke the news of the outbreak as the private operator was trying to deny there was an outbreak. Throughout lockdown there were people still visiting the area trying to escape the virus and seemingly not caring that they were further exposing us to it. The moment lockdown was lifted it was as if a swarm hit the island as everyone decided a holiday was in order. I can't say many were happy to see such numbers arrive.

Life was strange here. We had our island back for a time, though for me it meant working 80 hour weeks. I still haven't had a full day off since March. I'm lucky that my business has been able to thrive this year. We've effectively fed the north end of the island and the loyalty we've been given since has been humbling. I hope we don't have to go through it again with another lockdown. But if we do, I'm ready. We didn't run out of bog roll last time and this time round I've got experience :mrgreen:

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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:40 pm

dave the minion wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:47 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:23 pm

It is absolutely fine to have a different opinion and think the government's approach is right and that they should just abandon the science base and do their own thing. But the issue I have is you claiming people are criticising them with no alternative - the alternatives are frequently mentioned and by the governments own scientific advisory group.

.....


What I'd ask you is do you think the government handing out billions of pounds to Tory Donors, mates of Dominic Cummings and Boris - is an accident - that they just did the best they could? That putting through emergency legislation to allow them to bypass procurement rules and then dish the cash out like they have was just 'them doing their best'? And do you think that when they were for example, strongly advised to follow the South Korean track and trace model - a model we had planned for in this country back as far as 2008 - devolving track and trace down to PHE and local public health hubs - and yet ignored that advice and just pumped the money into friends of the Tory party paid exorbitant fees and Serco - do you think that was just them 'doing their best'?

I suppose where I am on all this - and I'd be the first to admit I have zero time for politics - is that I'm sure some of what the current government has done is wrong - perhaps lots of it and in some cases very wrong. However, I'm also sure that a different government would also have done some things wrong and very wrong, just maybe different wrong (if you know what I mean!), and there would have been just as many critics waiting in the wings for them....

Whatever any government does the one thing that is certain is that the opposition and its followers will shoot it down and say there is something better that could have been done. This will be the case regardless of which party proposed which measures, and this is what pees me off about the eejuts we are talking about. I read something yesterday - which may be right or may be made up (can't remember the details) - quoting Andy Burnham early in the pandemic criticising the government for putting the economy over the health of the people, yet he has now just been in a battle with the government to get more money before he considers people's health. This is not a pop at him or the GM situation- and its probably inaccurate - but more an example of the kind of behaviour that goes on.

I've just read that Scotland have introduced a 5 tier system of alert. WTF - when you read it its basically the same as England's 3 tier system, with a higher end that will only be used in extreme (=total lockdown maybe) and a lower end which is basically pre-restrictions. So basically they are in agreement with a 3 tier system, but they'll call it 5 tiers so they are not actually agreeing with the government, even if they are!!!

Its pathetic. One mantra I've always worked to in my career which I don't think has ever failed is "keep it simple" - thats all I - and I think most of us - are asking for. One set of rules, communicated by all parties as one - and then we're all in it together!!!
That completely misrepresents Burnham's position. He's always been pro PH intervention. But as he's stated we are being asked to go into maximum tier which the scientists who have advised the government have said on record won't work - in doing so we've been asked to close lots of businesses which are according to the data not big spreaders of the disease and it was only right that if we were asked to go into what look like very long term measures with little or no realistic prospect of exit that we are given the economic resources to protect as many as possible. Burnham's point is essentially that we should lockdown fully bring cases down because at least then we'd have a potential end point and do some good, yet tier 3 will ultimately not work given we've more or less in many areas been under those restrictions already but it hasn't worked - so if we do have to accept them help out the businesses.

In terms of a collective set of rules then I think you need a collective government. You had for a period in March and April cooperation across nations and parties because everyone accepted the need to be in lockdown. But you can't expect everyone to agree or not point out the major issues unless you have a cross party government of national unity where all views are weighted equally. That was one option but the government didn't pursue it. Given that the government are being given advice but rejecting it all - what do you want the opposition to do? Agree with the government for the sake of it? They've offered time and time again to work with them and been rebuffed every time. So I'm unconvinced that you are asking for anything beyond 'everyone just agree with the government and stop calling them names'. If you genuinely want a constructive government of national unity then the current government would have to give way, concede and let such a thing form OR at the very least get round the table and discuss ideas....because its in their power and their power only to do.

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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by Gooner Girl » Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:21 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:01 am


Ha! On locking down Exeter - can I ask how that would work in practice - given we know rates are high in and around the city compared to the rest of the county - how wide do you draw that circle? Do you stop people leaving the city - or coming in? How do you stop people who live in the boundary from getting bored and sneaking to local areas where businesses are open? How do you manage the creep as people start to stretch the rules because only a few miles away their mates are out in the pub?

That's the problem I have - it sounds nonsensical to restrict people in areas with low rates. But in practice I'm not sure there is an easy way to manage it on a different basis without some significant infrastructure put in place - you'd probably be looking at closing routes in and out of areas entirely to stop the natural creep out you get in that scenario.

I agree there is no easy answer - no trick that will work. The fundamental thing we did wrong was coming out of the initial lockdown too quickly - it should have been phased. I'm sure where you are you could have come out quite easily but in the NW the disease was still spreading at far too fast a rate. There needed to be a much slower and more phased plan because my overriding view is the only way to really tackle this is to find a permanent way of life that keeps the disease in check - since we simply do not know how long any solution may be or whether one may ever present itself. So for me defining what MUST be open at all costs, like schools and health providers - and then working out what other things were possible to be open alongside them to keep the R down - this was all measurable post lockdown if we'd done it carefully and slowly. Ultimately the data is there to know what impact opening hairdressers has or pubs - to a fair degree of confidence. So if we'd been a bit more cautious and taken a more stepped local approach in July I feel we'd be in a better position now to really a) not have such high numbers and b) know exactly what and when and where we need restrictions on. As it is we're guessing.

For me and I'm somewhat ashamed to admit this but I found lockdown fine - it wasn't fun or amazing but it was tolerable. What I've found since then is my mental health is all over the place (and I've never had any MH issues ever, not once) because of the constant stress of changes in rules, changes in the situation that impact on my work, my staff, my family, my home life, my plans and it has got to the point where I feel constantly like I'm on a cliff edge. I hate myself for even writing this guff. But its just reached a point where I'd prefer certainty and clarity and the only way I can personally have that is if we just lockdown. I am being selfish but frankly the whole thing has become a huge weight for me personally - and I can't be alone in that.
How has it worked up in the north? Some places locked down, others right next to them not? I guess whether it’s north or south there will hopefully be a majority that abide by the rules and a minority that don’t. You have to hope the majority abiding are enough to make a difference. The danger with numerous, full on lock downs is that people get lockdown fatigue and start breaking the rules more. People are more likely to abide if told ‘stay at home for a week’ then ‘stay at home for a Month’

I’m sorry you have found it so tough recently, I suspect that’s quite normal feelings, not that it makes it any easier. As you say, at least with full on lockdown you knew where you were, the frequent changes of rules must make it all very frustrating and stressful. That said, for the extroverts amongst us (of which I’m not, I found lockdown Ok, home schooling apart) the lack of social contact and getting out that full on lockdown brings must be really hard. At the end of the day we are all social animals to some degree and need the human contact. I spent ages gurning at a baby in a buggy in the shop the other day before it clicked it couldn’t see my faces because of the mask. I’ve personally found the cancellation of events that mark the change of season for us as a family hard. The summer village day, bonfire night, Christmas shopping evening Etc. I miss going to Arsenal too, I have had a couple of funerals of friends (non Covid) that I have had to attend virtually. Covid has bought so many crappy negative changes, I do hope there will be some small positive changes too, whether that be people building better relationships with family, the effect on the environment etc.

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Re: Today I'm angry about.....

Post by dave the minion » Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:47 pm

Gooner Girl wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:21 pm

How has it worked up in the north? Some places locked down, others right next to them not? I guess whether it’s north or south there will hopefully be a majority that abide by the rules and a minority that don’t. You have to hope the majority abiding are enough to make a difference. The danger with numerous, full on lock downs is that people get lockdown fatigue and start breaking the rules more. People are more likely to abide if told ‘stay at home for a week’ then ‘stay at home for a Month’

I’m sorry you have found it so tough recently, I suspect that’s quite normal feelings, not that it makes it any easier. As you say, at least with full on lockdown you knew where you were, the frequent changes of rules must make it all very frustrating and stressful. That said, for the extroverts amongst us (of which I’m not, I found lockdown Ok, home schooling apart) the lack of social contact and getting out that full on lockdown brings must be really hard. At the end of the day we are all social animals to some degree and need the human contact. I spent ages gurning at a baby in a buggy in the shop the other day before it clicked it couldn’t see my faces because of the mask. I’ve personally found the cancellation of events that mark the change of season for us as a family hard. The summer village day, bonfire night, Christmas shopping evening Etc. I miss going to Arsenal too, I have had a couple of funerals of friends (non Covid) that I have had to attend virtually. Covid has bought so many crappy negative changes, I do hope there will be some small positive changes too, whether that be people building better relationships with family, the effect on the environment etc.
A nice sentiment to end on, and one which I wholeheartedly agree with and share your hope. Where I live - a big village/small town just outside greater manchester, the outpouring of help, support & renewed community spirit for our many elderly neighbours has been amazing to be part of, and I hope things like that remain. I also noticed a general positiveness around the place once lockdown ended, which again, is lovely.

Tonight will be interesting however. Where I am is currently tier 2 so we are allowed to meet in groups of 6 outside in the pub, and I have a friends birthday drinks to attend. Our village is normally busy-ish but quiet enough so that recently there's always been a table outside on of the pubs that we have. However, < 2 km away for about 60% of our boundary is greater manchester, so I wonder how many people will make the short trip over tonight......
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