creeeeeeeekeeeeeet

[Bruce Rioja]

5 down and into the tail. Come on

[Prufrock]

Might get to chuck them back in tonight at this rate!

[Worthy4England]

Quite. Now Jimmy has hauled them back in on the run rate... We were in danger of having to bat again with that Roland-Jones bowling...

[Bruce Rioja]

Might get to chuck them back in tonight at this rate!

Seven down now. I think you could well be correct! And, we only have to take two more as Philanderer's got the shits.

[TANGODANCER]

Just when we're really turning the screws......it rains...

[TANGODANCER]

Assuming all goes according to Cocker, what sort of a total might we be looking to present our visitors with? 250 plus in front with one wicket down should be making for optimism, so.?

[Worthy4England]

Assuming all goes according to Cocker, what sort of a total might we be looking to present our visitors with? 250 plus in front with one wicket down should be making for optimism, so.?

Not seen the forecast for Oval but we have 5 sessions after this one. We seem to be quite conservative, typically looking for 400-450. 300 might do it, so 350-375 is where I'd head depending on the weather and how fast (if) we get there...

[jimbo]

They'll declare 25 mins before tea. Lead 430-450. That'll be plenty of time to finish the job. Desperate it'll be a close finish - Theres been a real lack of suspense in recent home summers with games being won by huge margins

[Worthy4England]

They'll declare 25 mins before tea. Lead 430-450. That'll be plenty of time to finish the job. Desperate it'll be a close finish - Theres been a real lack of suspense in recent home summers with games being won by huge margins

Aye, if they get their in that time, they'll take that.

[Worthy4England]

^^ That'll teach me not to look at the scoreboard first!

[Bruce Rioja]

Assuming all goes according to Cocker, what sort of a total might we be looking to present our visitors with? 250 plus in front with one wicket down should be making for optimism, so.?

350, maybe 400 for me, Tango. They've got a lot of time to pick them off. However, my experience with South Africans leads me to conclude that they're the least patient people on earth.

[TANGODANCER]

Assuming all goes according to Cocker, what sort of a total might we be looking to present our visitors with? 250 plus in front with one wicket down should be making for optimism, so.?

350, maybe 400 for me, Tango. They've got a lot of time to pick them off. However, my experience with South Africans leads me to conclude that they're the least patient people on earth.

I think I'd be settling for the 400. They have some quality with the bat and we might not see the off as easily as the first innings. Then again.....we might..

[Prufrock]

In situations like this where realistically they aren't going to win the match I don't know why people keep going past 418 or whatever the record is. Give yourself as much time as possible. If they knock off 400-plus to win they a) fair f*cking play and b) maybe I'll start coming round to BWFCis theory that the bowling isn't good enough!

[TANGODANCER]

313-8 right now so as Bairstow goes for 63 and we declare. .....492 needed to win for the Saffers...Don't think so chaps..

[Worthy4England]

In situations like this where realistically they aren't going to win the match I don't know why people keep going past 418 or whatever the record is. Give yourself as much time as possible. If they knock off 400-plus to win they a) fair f*cking play and b) maybe I'll start coming round to BWFCis theory that the bowling isn't good enough!

There's only been 32 occasions a team has got more than 350 and a further 20 where they've gone past 400 in the 4th innings of a test match. Of those 6 of the over 350's won and a further 4 times over 400.

Getting over 350 in the fourth innings = 1.41%
Getting over 350 and winning = 0.44%
Getting over 400 and winning = 0.17%

It's not really about the chances of you winning and making it safe. Fairly small chance you're going to get beat. Slightly higher chance of you not coming out with a win.

Part of the rationale behind it is to keep them in the field, bored, demoralised and fagging the ball from all corners, rather than because you think you might not win. Whilst you're doing that, you're tiring 2 batsmen out and they're tiring 9 fielders and 2 bowlers out (at any one time)...

You still have to bowl in the 4th innings anyhow.

[Prufrock]

I get there's an whenever of that but I read the highest successful 4th innings chase at the Oval is 232. I didn't understand chucking them in for a bit before tea with 350+ on. Never going to lose, there anyway demoralised, give yourself as long as possible!

Anyway, doesn't look like it's going to matter! This Du Plessis chap doesn't quite seem to have got the hang of it

[Worthy4England]

Yeah, it's to shag 'em out a bit. The before tea thing gives your openers a couple of goes to steam in and the batsmen little time to set themselves before the break...

[Nicko58]

Racking up a huge, insurmountable lead before declaring enrages Shane Warne, and thereby provides all the justification needed for doing so.

[TANGODANCER]

Won by 239 runs and Moeen Ali finishes em off with a hat-trick. Tremendous stuff.

[Worthy4England]

Good all round performance - Couple of debutant's performed creditably well. Roland-Jones with 8 fer, and Westley with a 50 and a pretty good one to get him in the first innings. Think we need to see more of them in the last test and the two against the Windies.

Malan not too hot but shouldn't drop batsmen after one go.