General Chit Chat

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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue May 12, 2020 11:24 am

Japan has a higher population (almost double) the UK and a higher population density - the UK have had over 30,000 coronavirus deaths. Japan under 700.

There are a myriad of examples.

The rest of the world have been stunned. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... is-johnson

We're shielded from the coverage as the BBC don't want to "upset the apple cart" apparently and be openly critical and of course the Murdoch press will not go full out. But the inadequacy of our response is plain as day. And I think the level of protestation from those who wish to defend the government the levels to which they'll try to distort things or pick out highly selective facts and ignore the huge list of very obvious errors - shows that deep down they know it too. You don't get so annoyed by criticism unless it hits a nerve.

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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by TANGODANCER » Tue May 12, 2020 12:27 pm

It's sunny in Italy and raining in Farnworth right now.Fact. No data government ministries, charts, blame or finger pointing can change the fact because it is what it is. Boris is probably being amongst the most honest in being confused and admitting he just doesn't know the answers. That, I can admire,how can he? We might be able to predict the weather accurately to some degree, but who, in their wildest dreams could have foreseen or been prepared for Coronavirus in any country, never mind world-wide?

Better get praying brother, billions of us religious devotees, Christians, Islamists and Jews to name but three factions comprising much of the world , are already doing that day and night, led by the Pope, Archbishop of Cantebury and all religious world leaders. Just maybe their efforts are preventing facts and figures from being much worse. Who knows, certainly not Boris and co. I'm betting more than a few leaders have copies of The Bible, Torah and Quran tucked away in their luggage if they are honest.

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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by dave the minion » Tue May 12, 2020 12:40 pm

Don't kid yourself. I'm not defending the government at all - merely pointing out that its a terrible situation we find ourselves in, and rather than point scoring, sniping and offering hindsight-benefited advice is of no help whatsoever. Its a nightmare and we need to all work together, and any government - whether competent or not - would struggle, and many many throughout the world have.

The critics are out in force saying we should have gone into lockdown earlier, and not doing so has caused thousands of avoidable deaths. However, look at Sweden and Japan (as referenced above) - both countries avoided lockdown's and fared better than we did (certainly in terms of deaths), so was their advice better or worse? What if we had followed their lead, and thousands more had died - how would this have been viewed?

My view is that what other countries did was neither better or worse - it was just different and specific to their circumstances. There are so so many variables that comparisons just don't work: population numbers/densities/age profile/mobility & travel patterns, number of hospitals, capacity, ICU berths, equipment and ventilators, national attitudes to following rules etc etc etc I would also urge caution in reading too much into what other countries think of our approach: firstly its none of their business, and secondly we all know countries like to have a pop at others, and none more so than at us!!!

Our government has acted on the advice of a panel of experts. Unless you're telling me that on average our experts are thicker than their overseas counterparts, and refuse to speak to others to share views, then how can we say it has been incompetence that has led us to where we are? I genuinely believe - and am happy to admit I'm wrong if necessary - that everyone has acted in the best interests based on the advice they have been given. There isn't a single person in or outside of this country that can say with certainty that going into lockdown a week earlier would have saved x number of lives. They can speculate this might be the case - usually done to score a cheap hit at the government - but they can't say for ceretain. What if lockdown did start sooner, and people's tolerance for it ended sooner, leading to people breaking the rules more and new cases appearing? this could just have kicked the problem down the road a bit, but wouldn't necessarily have made it any better?

I just wish people would get on with staying safe and following the expert guidelines, and stop looking for someone to blame all the effing time....
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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue May 12, 2020 12:47 pm

dave the minion wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 12:40 pm
Don't kid yourself. I'm not defending the government at all - merely pointing out that its a terrible situation we find ourselves in, and rather than point scoring, sniping and offering hindsight-benefited advice is of no help whatsoever. Its a nightmare and we need to all work together, and any government - whether competent or not - would struggle, and many many throughout the world have.

The critics are out in force saying we should have gone into lockdown earlier, and not doing so has caused thousands of avoidable deaths. However, look at Sweden and Japan (as referenced above) - both countries avoided lockdown's and fared better than we did (certainly in terms of deaths), so was their advice better or worse? What if we had followed their lead, and thousands more had died - how would this have been viewed?

My view is that what other countries did was neither better or worse - it was just different and specific to their circumstances. There are so so many variables that comparisons just don't work: population numbers/densities/age profile/mobility & travel patterns, number of hospitals, capacity, ICU berths, equipment and ventilators, national attitudes to following rules etc etc etc I would also urge caution in reading too much into what other countries think of our approach: firstly its none of their business, and secondly we all know countries like to have a pop at others, and none more so than at us!!!

Our government has acted on the advice of a panel of experts. Unless you're telling me that on average our experts are thicker than their overseas counterparts, and refuse to speak to others to share views, then how can we say it has been incompetence that has led us to where we are? I genuinely believe - and am happy to admit I'm wrong if necessary - that everyone has acted in the best interests based on the advice they have been given. There isn't a single person in or outside of this country that can say with certainty that going into lockdown a week earlier would have saved x number of lives. They can speculate this might be the case - usually done to score a cheap hit at the government - but they can't say for ceretain. What if lockdown did start sooner, and people's tolerance for it ended sooner, leading to people breaking the rules more and new cases appearing? this could just have kicked the problem down the road a bit, but wouldn't necessarily have made it any better?

I just wish people would get on with staying safe and following the expert guidelines, and stop looking for someone to blame all the effing time....
Acted on basis of expert advice is really really poor line. Governments always act on ‘expert advice’. It depends who you ask and how you interpret it.

But I would point you to the question for the CSA and CMO yesterday asking if they supported the change of slogan. Neither would say they did. It was incredibly telling. Chris Whitty pointedly said they didn’t get involved in marketing.

Their advice is going to all 4 nations that comprise the UK. 3 have chosen to do different to England. All same advice. Different paths.

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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by dave the minion » Tue May 12, 2020 1:01 pm

Everyone's going on about the change of slogan: Christ, its not rocket science - surely anyone with even a fraction of common sense can understand the sentiment behind the message. People calling it out are just trying to score points again
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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by Harry Genshaw » Tue May 12, 2020 1:16 pm

Christ, if we cant hold our Govt to account when people are dying, when can we?
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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by Enoch » Tue May 12, 2020 1:49 pm

Harry Genshaw wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 1:16 pm
Christ, if we cant hold our Govt to account when people are dying, when can we?

I fancy there's a marked difference between holding a government to account and trying to create headlines, political posturing or just plain claiming to know better after the fact, Harry.

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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue May 12, 2020 3:08 pm

dave the minion wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 1:01 pm
Everyone's going on about the change of slogan: Christ, its not rocket science - surely anyone with even a fraction of common sense can understand the sentiment behind the message. People calling it out are just trying to score points again
Stay alert is absolutely fine if you have a small and controlled number of cases. The government's own report reckons we have 136,000 cases currently. Stay alert is absolutely useless - the message should be "stay the feck away from everyone else until this is controlled".

And it would appear 3 nations all agree - based on the same advice. Only Boris of 4 different leaders receiving the same advice has decided we should just rock on. And the CSA/CMO would not confirm their support for that change of emphasis. So I repeat, that saying "we're taking expert advice" is bullshit, and trying to pass the buck.

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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by Worthy4England » Tue May 12, 2020 3:10 pm

Like none of this has gone on forever. I mean really.

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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by Harry Genshaw » Tue May 12, 2020 3:50 pm

Enoch wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 1:49 pm
Harry Genshaw wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 1:16 pm
Christ, if we cant hold our Govt to account when people are dying, when can we?

I fancy there's a marked difference between holding a government to account and trying to create headlines, political posturing or just plain claiming to know better after the fact, Harry.
Oh aye, there's undoubtedly some point scoring going on but then there's plenty trying to excuse the Govt or duck scrutiny by claiming any criticism is posturing and somehow unjustified.

I can imagine Jeremy Corbyn & Diane Abbott would have been excused too if they were in Govt and;
Contracted the virus after boasting about shaking hands with covid patients.
Ordered the wrong antibody tests
Paid for PPE that didn't meet UK standards
Presided over the highest death toll, so far, in Europe.

The media would be tearing them apart!
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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by Montreal Wanderer » Tue May 12, 2020 5:02 pm

Enoch wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 10:52 pm
The only country on this planet that has a population both larger and denser than England is Bangladesh.

They've only recorded 239 deaths due to COVID-19.

Which clearly shows how shit we are.

We all know that to be the case.
The most densely populated country in the world is Monaco, who have recorded 4 deaths. To my mind population density is not so significant a factor as poverty and social scale. In the US Blacks and Hispanics are affected far out of proportion to their numbers. I bet that will prove true in the UK. Partly it is the jobs they fill out of proportion to their numbers - transport workers, health care workers, first responders etc. They have at risk occupations, but it is more than that. there will be questions to be answered when this is over.
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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by Enoch » Wed May 13, 2020 10:46 pm

Enoch wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 10:52 pm
The only country on this planet that has a population both larger and denser than England is Bangladesh.

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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by Enoch » Wed May 13, 2020 10:55 pm

Harry Genshaw wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 3:50 pm
Enoch wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 1:49 pm
Harry Genshaw wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 1:16 pm
Christ, if we cant hold our Govt to account when people are dying, when can we?

I fancy there's a marked difference between holding a government to account and trying to create headlines, political posturing or just plain claiming to know better after the fact, Harry.

… but then there's plenty trying to excuse the Govt or duck scrutiny by claiming any criticism is posturing and somehow unjustified.

I wouldn't disagree with that but my gripe is simply with the wankers that habitually try to create headlines, posture for political effect or claim to have known better after the fact.

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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by Worthy4England » Thu May 14, 2020 11:29 am

The things you describe have existed at least as long as I recall politics, on all sides of the political spectrum. Would be more surprised if they didn't. People only seem to take the hump, when it's others who have a different viewpoint than themselves.

They're entitled to do it, you're entitled to think they're wankers. Sorta how it rolls.

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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by Prufrock » Thu May 14, 2020 12:24 pm

On a strategic level this is clearly difficult. This is a hopefully once in a lifetime scale event with no useful precedent. I have a lot of sympathy for having to take decisions on a macro level with pace. Especially given the exponential rate of it's spread makes timing so critical.

It's obviously right that they are led by science, but there is not always one option. One thing I will say though is that if you're going to take s different tack to almost every country in Europe, as we started to before rowing back, then you better hope you're right.

We also had a two week headstart on Italy yet seem(ed) to make the same mistakes they did.

But on a smaller level there are things it is quite right to blame the govt for.

Procurement of PPE has been a shit show. That's partly 10 years of austerity cuts and underfunding (under conservative govt), partly the distractions of Brexit (meaning supplies expired without being replaced) but also piss poor management by this government. The EU took delivery of over a £1b of PPE, that we could have been part of but declined/fecked it up, so were sending doctors to work in fecking snorkels. The mistakes of this govt and it's predecessors have cost the lives of NHS workers. Not all of them, unfortunately the disease would have killed NHS workers regardless, but some were preventable.

Hadley Freeman in the Guardian said it reminded her of the mothers of killed soldiers sing the govt in the early 2000s because they were killed in Iraq because they didn't have the right equipment.

And communication has been a shit show. Cabinet briefing against itself, leaking of policy days in advance that is then u-turned on. I mean to go on national TV and announce a change to the plans sending people back to work by the following morning is bad enough, but then to say we aren't even punlishing the guidance until tomorrow. It's been pathetic.
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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu May 14, 2020 4:28 pm

So the testing pilot now has 11,000 sampled results back. And this suggests that currently roughly 148,000 people are infected. The governments data based model predicts around 136,000 so same ballpark.

Note these are people in the community NOT in care homes or hospitals. That sounds like a LOT of infected people - and therefore absolutely zero hope of a track trace and isolate strategy. Which is the only way out. Surely we need to get the numbers in the community down to incredibly low and manageable numbers before we release the lockdown - then we can track and trace and isolate to keep the disease managed. Given some of those will be asymptomatic (lets model 1% - it will be more) that's over 1000 people walking round in workplaces, in shops etc with it, who have no idea. Then add it that the top infection mode is from pre-symptomatics - which at any one point could be tens of thousands....I don't see how you can even start to get a grip on that. It's going to sky rocket as soon as people are inside trains, offices, buildings, buses where social distancing is either not possible or ineffective - China have shown people being infected 10M apart on public transport without any shared surface contact - and even sometimes with a lag between people (as in someone infected left the bus before the newly infected even got on).

If you have very low incidences then you've a chance of controlling it for a while or even longer term with rigorous testing, and then isolating those infected. Whilst you are in thousands let alone tens and hundreds of thousands - its very hard to control it. Only hope is that everyone behaves to an even greater standard than the guidelines - so wear masks, stay more than 2M apart, wear gloves etc....that might work. But its going to need huge swathes of population to do it.

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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by Worthy4England » Sat May 23, 2020 7:48 pm

Bah can't get full house. The highlights reel is locked :-(

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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by Worthy4England » Sat May 23, 2020 7:56 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:48 pm
Bah can't get full house. The highlights reel is locked :-(
Maybe we can!

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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by Hoboh » Sun May 24, 2020 2:39 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:56 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:48 pm
Bah can't get full house. The highlights reel is locked :-(
Maybe we can!
:lol:

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Re: General Chit Chat

Post by Montreal Wanderer » Sun May 24, 2020 3:16 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:56 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:48 pm
Bah can't get full house. The highlights reel is locked :-(
Maybe we can!
Slow Saturday night in isolation?
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