European Second Referendum

[BWFC_Insane]

So letters are in. But May will win the confidence vote. Which surely kills off the Tory Brexiteer hopes of steering towards a hard Brexit?

You don't even remotely think like a Tory mate, May has a lot of enemy's from the past lurking around and quite a few more now who feel she has been jerking them off.
If she was so popular why the hell do you think she had to bring sourfaced Rudderless back?

Do you think she'll lose the vote? I don't. I do not see enough ERG support in the Tory party.

Already 110 Tory MPs have publically backed her. She only needs 49 more. Sure they might all be lying as it is a secret ballot. But most people think she wins tonight. Had the vote been Monday - a few days of turmoil and I think it might have been closer.

I think only about 80 will vote against her tonight. How many do you think will?

EDIT: Bookies all have her as massive odds on favourite to win tonight. They clearly agree with me. She's going to win it isn't even going to be close. They went too early and didn't secure backing from waverers on the other side of the party.

[Hoboh]

So letters are in. But May will win the confidence vote. Which surely kills off the Tory Brexiteer hopes of steering towards a hard Brexit?

You don't even remotely think like a Tory mate, May has a lot of enemy's from the past lurking around and quite a few more now who feel she has been jerking them off.
If she was so popular why the hell do you think she had to bring sourfaced Rudderless back?

Do you think she'll lose the vote? I don't. I do not see enough ERG support in the Tory party.

Already 110 Tory MPs have publically backed her. She only needs 49 more. Sure they might all be lying as it is a secret ballot. But most people think she wins tonight. Had the vote been Monday - a few days of turmoil and I think it might have been closer.

I think only about 80 will vote against her tonight. How many do you think will?

EDIT: Bookies all have her as massive odds on favourite to win tonight. They clearly agree with me. She's going to win it isn't even going to be close. They went too early and didn't secure backing from waverers on the other side of the party.

We'll see, don't forget not many thought Corbyn had any realistic chance of wining.

If May wins Corbyn should book Pickfords for sometime early next year, the PM with her bowed knee attitude to the EU has split the Tories in two to such a degree many grassroots members might skip voting next time.

The french problems have highlighted the fact the EU was ready to be hard balled and she bottled it.

[BWFC_Insane]

So letters are in. But May will win the confidence vote. Which surely kills off the Tory Brexiteer hopes of steering towards a hard Brexit?

You don't even remotely think like a Tory mate, May has a lot of enemy's from the past lurking around and quite a few more now who feel she has been jerking them off.
If she was so popular why the hell do you think she had to bring sourfaced Rudderless back?

Do you think she'll lose the vote? I don't. I do not see enough ERG support in the Tory party.

Already 110 Tory MPs have publically backed her. She only needs 49 more. Sure they might all be lying as it is a secret ballot. But most people think she wins tonight. Had the vote been Monday - a few days of turmoil and I think it might have been closer.

I think only about 80 will vote against her tonight. How many do you think will?

EDIT: Bookies all have her as massive odds on favourite to win tonight. They clearly agree with me. She's going to win it isn't even going to be close. They went too early and didn't secure backing from waverers on the other side of the party.

We'll see, don't forget not many thought Corbyn had any realistic chance of wining.

If May wins Corbyn should book Pickfords for sometime early next year, the PM with her bowed knee attitude to the EU has split the Tories in two to such a degree many grassroots members might skip voting next time.

The french problems have highlighted the fact the EU was ready to be hard balled and she bottled it.

She wins. And it makes the situation even worse because deadlock is even more entrenched. And there is a risk she can get the deal through because some rebels might be forced to support her deal.

[Hoboh]

You have to ask yourself one question did he fire five or six If you were a Tory in front of a fire out of control, stood next to an extinguisher, would you put it out or run off to look for more fuel?

Anyone choosing the latter is looking for fuel and will inevitably burn down the house.

[Hoboh]

Couple of hints here to what's being said.

In reality anything short of a handsome victory will make it almost impossible for her to cling on, with rebels saying she must go if she is opposed by more than 80 MPs.

Allies believe she would have romped home if a contest had been staged last month - but her position has weakened significantly since then.

The latest odds released by bookmaker Willam Hill revealed the Prime Minister has good chances to survive tonight's vote of no confidence, at least according to bookies. The data shared by the bookmaker see the Prime Minister's chance to win at 4/6. William Hill spokesman Rupert Adams said: "The odds suggest Theresa will be safe but it could be a close run thing."

[BWFC_Insane]

Couple of hints here to what's being said.

In reality anything short of a handsome victory will make it almost impossible for her to cling on, with rebels saying she must go if she is opposed by more than 80 MPs.

Allies believe she would have romped home if a contest had been staged last month - but her position has weakened significantly since then.

The latest odds released by bookmaker Willam Hill revealed the Prime Minister has good chances to survive tonight's vote of no confidence, at least according to bookies. The data shared by the bookmaker see the Prime Minister's chance to win at 4/6. William Hill spokesman Rupert Adams said: "The odds suggest Theresa will be safe but it could be a close run thing."

She's going to win easily. She has already said that even if she wins by just one vote she'll stay on.

But I think she will win by a huge margin. The angry Brexiteers have annoyed the rest of their party. They've gone too early.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

So letters are in. But May will win the confidence vote. Which surely kills off the Tory Brexiteer hopes of steering towards a hard Brexit?

Who says May will win? Experts? Every time this has happened in the past the experts underestimated the votes against. Every time.
Plus Gove is publicly backing her.. Gove. Gove! The only snake who is a boa constrictor in rattlesnake's clothing.

[BWFC_Insane]

So letters are in. But May will win the confidence vote. Which surely kills off the Tory Brexiteer hopes of steering towards a hard Brexit?

Who says May will win? Experts? Every time this has happened in the past the experts underestimated the votes against. Every time.
Plus Gove is publicly backing her.. Gove. Gove! The only snake who is a boa constrictor in rattlesnake's clothing.

Over 170 have said they will back her. In public on record. She needs 159. So a lot of them have to be lying. I agree that some are lying.

But she will win. It is why the vote is today. She knew the ERG expected the vote to be Monday to give them the weekend to make their case in the press. She wanted it today because she is confident she will win.

She will announce later that after delivering on Brexit she will stand down. So only the hardcore Brexiteers will be minded to vote for her. The rest of the party do not like her much but also do not like the ERG and their behaviour.

I'm 110% certain she'll win.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Here is a prediction.

May gets her 585 page legally binding "withdrawal agreement" and her 26 pages of non-legally binding weak, pathetic, agreement to have an agreement documents passed by Europe on Sunday (despite Spain and France throwing tantrums).
Parliament votes on this in December the something. Parliament passes said withdrawal agreement despite all 10 DUP MPs voting against, because Labour MPs roll over and have their bellies tickled and vote it in.
Labour combine with Liberals, SNP, and DUP and vote down all government legislation.
No Confidence vote in May is carried, but necessary number of MPs for general election cannot be found.
Queen invites Jeremy Corbyn to become PM with a minority administration.
Corbyn takes us out of EU on March 29th and immediately sets us on a course to be in a permanent customs union with the EU forevermore...

And I'm still sticking with this... (very slightly amended from December the something to January the something)...

[BWFC_Insane]

Here is a prediction.

May gets her 585 page legally binding "withdrawal agreement" and her 26 pages of non-legally binding weak, pathetic, agreement to have an agreement documents passed by Europe on Sunday (despite Spain and France throwing tantrums).
Parliament votes on this in December the something. Parliament passes said withdrawal agreement despite all 10 DUP MPs voting against, because Labour MPs roll over and have their bellies tickled and vote it in.
Labour combine with Liberals, SNP, and DUP and vote down all government legislation.
No Confidence vote in May is carried, but necessary number of MPs for general election cannot be found.
Queen invites Jeremy Corbyn to become PM with a minority administration.
Corbyn takes us out of EU on March 29th and immediately sets us on a course to be in a permanent customs union with the EU forevermore...

And I'm still sticking with this... (very slightly amended from December the something to January the something)...

It cannot happen how you outline.....unless the DUP back Corbyn - which as we know WILL NEVER HAPPEN.

They may back him on a no confidence motion. At which point if passed there are then 14 for a new government to form that can command the majority of MPs. That would be unlikely/impossible.

So after that Parliament is dissolved and a GE called. There is no vote on an early GE under a motion of no confidence. It happens automatically unless another government can be formed.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Here is a prediction.

May gets her 585 page legally binding "withdrawal agreement" and her 26 pages of non-legally binding weak, pathetic, agreement to have an agreement documents passed by Europe on Sunday (despite Spain and France throwing tantrums).
Parliament votes on this in December the something. Parliament passes said withdrawal agreement despite all 10 DUP MPs voting against, because Labour MPs roll over and have their bellies tickled and vote it in.
Labour combine with Liberals, SNP, and DUP and vote down all government legislation.
No Confidence vote in May is carried, but necessary number of MPs for general election cannot be found.
Queen invites Jeremy Corbyn to become PM with a minority administration.
Corbyn takes us out of EU on March 29th and immediately sets us on a course to be in a permanent customs union with the EU forevermore...

And I'm still sticking with this... (very slightly amended from December the something to January the something)...

It cannot happen how you outline.....unless the DUP back Corbyn - which as we know WILL NEVER HAPPEN.

They may back him on a no confidence motion. At which point if passed there are then 14 for a new government to form that can command the majority of MPs. That would be unlikely/impossible.

So after that Parliament is dissolved and a GE called. There is no vote on an early GE under a motion of no confidence. It happens automatically unless another government can be formed.

DUP don't need to. All they need to do is vote against government legislation. No GE is needed. The Queen would invite Corbyn to form a minority government. Theseare the constitutional rules.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

...so her number one tactic is to say she won't lead the party into the next GE. Superb. So Tories still need to decide who will lead them. If tonight keeps her on, then they still need to go through this charade once again. Might as well kill two birds with a thousand stones, than the one bird.

[BWFC_Insane]

Here is a prediction.

May gets her 585 page legally binding "withdrawal agreement" and her 26 pages of non-legally binding weak, pathetic, agreement to have an agreement documents passed by Europe on Sunday (despite Spain and France throwing tantrums).
Parliament votes on this in December the something. Parliament passes said withdrawal agreement despite all 10 DUP MPs voting against, because Labour MPs roll over and have their bellies tickled and vote it in.
Labour combine with Liberals, SNP, and DUP and vote down all government legislation.
No Confidence vote in May is carried, but necessary number of MPs for general election cannot be found.
Queen invites Jeremy Corbyn to become PM with a minority administration.
Corbyn takes us out of EU on March 29th and immediately sets us on a course to be in a permanent customs union with the EU forevermore...

And I'm still sticking with this... (very slightly amended from December the something to January the something)...

It cannot happen how you outline.....unless the DUP back Corbyn - which as we know WILL NEVER HAPPEN.

They may back him on a no confidence motion. At which point if passed there are then 14 for a new government to form that can command the majority of MPs. That would be unlikely/impossible.

So after that Parliament is dissolved and a GE called. There is no vote on an early GE under a motion of no confidence. It happens automatically unless another government can be formed.

DUP don't need to. All they need to do is vote against government legislation. No GE is needed. The Queen would invite Corbyn to form a minority government. Theseare the constitutional rules.

You said "no confidence vote is carried". The process from that is 14 days for a majority govt to form and win a vote FAILING that a GE is automatically called.

There is no "minority government on instruction from the queen".

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Here is a prediction.

May gets her 585 page legally binding "withdrawal agreement" and her 26 pages of non-legally binding weak, pathetic, agreement to have an agreement documents passed by Europe on Sunday (despite Spain and France throwing tantrums).
Parliament votes on this in December the something. Parliament passes said withdrawal agreement despite all 10 DUP MPs voting against, because Labour MPs roll over and have their bellies tickled and vote it in.
Labour combine with Liberals, SNP, and DUP and vote down all government legislation.
No Confidence vote in May is carried, but necessary number of MPs for general election cannot be found.
Queen invites Jeremy Corbyn to become PM with a minority administration.
Corbyn takes us out of EU on March 29th and immediately sets us on a course to be in a permanent customs union with the EU forevermore...

And I'm still sticking with this... (very slightly amended from December the something to January the something)...

It cannot happen how you outline.....unless the DUP back Corbyn - which as we know WILL NEVER HAPPEN.

They may back him on a no confidence motion. At which point if passed there are then 14 for a new government to form that can command the majority of MPs. That would be unlikely/impossible.

So after that Parliament is dissolved and a GE called. There is no vote on an early GE under a motion of no confidence. It happens automatically unless another government can be formed.

DUP don't need to. All they need to do is vote against government legislation. No GE is needed. The Queen would invite Corbyn to form a minority government. Theseare the constitutional rules.

You said "no confidence vote is carried". The process from that is 14 days for a majority govt to form and win a vote FAILING that a GE is automatically called.

There is no "minority government on instruction from the queen".

Well you're wrong. A minority government after a no confidence vote is under the queen's perogative. If Corbyn can demonstrate he has a way forward, the Queen cannot refuse (or rather, she could, but wouldn't).

[BWFC_Insane]

Here is a prediction.

May gets her 585 page legally binding "withdrawal agreement" and her 26 pages of non-legally binding weak, pathetic, agreement to have an agreement documents passed by Europe on Sunday (despite Spain and France throwing tantrums).
Parliament votes on this in December the something. Parliament passes said withdrawal agreement despite all 10 DUP MPs voting against, because Labour MPs roll over and have their bellies tickled and vote it in.
Labour combine with Liberals, SNP, and DUP and vote down all government legislation.
No Confidence vote in May is carried, but necessary number of MPs for general election cannot be found.
Queen invites Jeremy Corbyn to become PM with a minority administration.
Corbyn takes us out of EU on March 29th and immediately sets us on a course to be in a permanent customs union with the EU forevermore...

And I'm still sticking with this... (very slightly amended from December the something to January the something)...

It cannot happen how you outline.....unless the DUP back Corbyn - which as we know WILL NEVER HAPPEN.

They may back him on a no confidence motion. At which point if passed there are then 14 for a new government to form that can command the majority of MPs. That would be unlikely/impossible.

So after that Parliament is dissolved and a GE called. There is no vote on an early GE under a motion of no confidence. It happens automatically unless another government can be formed.

DUP don't need to. All they need to do is vote against government legislation. No GE is needed. The Queen would invite Corbyn to form a minority government. Theseare the constitutional rules.

You said "no confidence vote is carried". The process from that is 14 days for a majority govt to form and win a vote FAILING that a GE is automatically called.

There is no "minority government on instruction from the queen".

Well you're wrong. A minority government after a no confidence vote is under the queen's perogative. If Corbyn can demonstrate he has a way forward, the Queen cannot refuse (or rather, she could, but wouldn't).

https://www.parliament.uk/site-informat ... onfidence/

Not according to this!

Corbyn still would have to win a parliamentary motion of confidence in any government he tried to form. Which he couldn't!

[Hoboh]

Mistake to count on the DUP not going with Corbyn if May stays, they are not far short of labelling her treasonous towards NI.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Here is a prediction.

May gets her 585 page legally binding "withdrawal agreement" and her 26 pages of non-legally binding weak, pathetic, agreement to have an agreement documents passed by Europe on Sunday (despite Spain and France throwing tantrums).
Parliament votes on this in December the something. Parliament passes said withdrawal agreement despite all 10 DUP MPs voting against, because Labour MPs roll over and have their bellies tickled and vote it in.
Labour combine with Liberals, SNP, and DUP and vote down all government legislation.
No Confidence vote in May is carried, but necessary number of MPs for general election cannot be found.
Queen invites Jeremy Corbyn to become PM with a minority administration.
Corbyn takes us out of EU on March 29th and immediately sets us on a course to be in a permanent customs union with the EU forevermore...

And I'm still sticking with this... (very slightly amended from December the something to January the something)...

It cannot happen how you outline.....unless the DUP back Corbyn - which as we know WILL NEVER HAPPEN.

They may back him on a no confidence motion. At which point if passed there are then 14 for a new government to form that can command the majority of MPs. That would be unlikely/impossible.

So after that Parliament is dissolved and a GE called. There is no vote on an early GE under a motion of no confidence. It happens automatically unless another government can be formed.

DUP don't need to. All they need to do is vote against government legislation. No GE is needed. The Queen would invite Corbyn to form a minority government. Theseare the constitutional rules.

You said "no confidence vote is carried". The process from that is 14 days for a majority govt to form and win a vote FAILING that a GE is automatically called.

There is no "minority government on instruction from the queen".

Well you're wrong. A minority government after a no confidence vote is under the queen's perogative. If Corbyn can demonstrate he has a way forward, the Queen cannot refuse (or rather, she could, but wouldn't).

https://www.parliament.uk/site-informat ... onfidence/

Not according to this!

Corbyn still would have to win a parliamentary motion of confidence in any government he tried to form. Which he couldn't!

As I've said. You're wrong. I have the disadvantage of having a new phone with an operating system I'm not used to and cannot (through lack of knowledge) paste a simple fxcking link. But there are hundreds of them. Try googling can Corbyn form a minority government..
Anyfxckingway, it's a prediction. It either happens or doesn't, whether in the negative because it's impossible or other events occurred is immaterial, surely? It either happens or it doesn't. And I say it will happen...

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Mistake to count on the DUP not going with Corbyn if May stays, they are not far short of labelling her treasonous towards NI.

She is treasonous. Off with her head, I say!
[ No deal is better than blah blah blah. And then have the temerity to come back with blah blah blah ]

[BWFC_Insane]

Here is a prediction.

May gets her 585 page legally binding "withdrawal agreement" and her 26 pages of non-legally binding weak, pathetic, agreement to have an agreement documents passed by Europe on Sunday (despite Spain and France throwing tantrums).
Parliament votes on this in December the something. Parliament passes said withdrawal agreement despite all 10 DUP MPs voting against, because Labour MPs roll over and have their bellies tickled and vote it in.
Labour combine with Liberals, SNP, and DUP and vote down all government legislation.
No Confidence vote in May is carried, but necessary number of MPs for general election cannot be found.
Queen invites Jeremy Corbyn to become PM with a minority administration.
Corbyn takes us out of EU on March 29th and immediately sets us on a course to be in a permanent customs union with the EU forevermore...

And I'm still sticking with this... (very slightly amended from December the something to January the something)...

It cannot happen how you outline.....unless the DUP back Corbyn - which as we know WILL NEVER HAPPEN.

They may back him on a no confidence motion. At which point if passed there are then 14 for a new government to form that can command the majority of MPs. That would be unlikely/impossible.

So after that Parliament is dissolved and a GE called. There is no vote on an early GE under a motion of no confidence. It happens automatically unless another government can be formed.

DUP don't need to. All they need to do is vote against government legislation. No GE is needed. The Queen would invite Corbyn to form a minority government. Theseare the constitutional rules.

You said "no confidence vote is carried". The process from that is 14 days for a majority govt to form and win a vote FAILING that a GE is automatically called.

There is no "minority government on instruction from the queen".

Well you're wrong. A minority government after a no confidence vote is under the queen's perogative. If Corbyn can demonstrate he has a way forward, the Queen cannot refuse (or rather, she could, but wouldn't).

https://www.parliament.uk/site-informat ... onfidence/

Not according to this!

Corbyn still would have to win a parliamentary motion of confidence in any government he tried to form. Which he couldn't!

As I've said. You're wrong. I have the disadvantage of having a new phone with an operating system I'm not used to and cannot (through lack of knowledge) paste a simple fxcking link. But there are hundreds of them. Try googling can Corbyn form a minority government..
Anyfxckingway, it's a prediction. It either happens or doesn't, whether in the negative because it's impossible or other events occurred is immaterial, surely? It either happens or it doesn't. And I say it will happen...

It is possible but highly unlikely that the queen could intervene if Brexit hits true deadlock and ask Corbyn to form a minority government. That is hugely, hugely unlikely.

However, it is not possible following a no confidence motion for Corbyn to form a minority government in the 14 day window UNLESS it wins support from majority of MPs.

[BWFC_Insane]

Mistake to count on the DUP not going with Corbyn if May stays, they are not far short of labelling her treasonous towards NI.

The DUP could support Corbyn on a no confidence motion if they felt May was going to land them with that deal. They would not support his bid for government though. They'd be hoping that they win more seats, the Tories a few less and then that the DUP have even more influence and they can force May out.

I think its unlikely they would support even a no confidence motion though given they know that doing so means they either land May or Corbyn potentially with more power.