Where will we finish?
Moderator: Zulus Thousand of em
- Dave Sutton's barnet
- Immortal
- Posts: 28812
- Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 4:00 pm
- Location: Hanging on in quiet desperation
- Contact:
Where will we finish?
Snap two-day poll. I suppose it'll finish just before Tuesday's game, although I'm not sure how the mechanism works (might end Tuesday midnight or summat).
Anyway, have a guess, for fun. Only allowed 20 poll options so I've bunched up at the bottom. Click wisely: no revotes allowed.
Anyway, have a guess, for fun. Only allowed 20 poll options so I've bunched up at the bottom. Click wisely: no revotes allowed.
- truewhite15
- Passionate
- Posts: 2769
- Joined: Fri Dec 05, 2008 7:25 pm
Re: Where will we finish?
Gone for 10th, but I can see us, on current form, finishing anywhere in the non-playoff top half bracket (so 7th to 12th). I'd have snatched your hand off for that at the beginning of the season, and I think it'll stand us in really good stead at having a proper crack at promotion next season.Dave Sutton's barnet wrote: ↑Sun Feb 20, 2022 7:55 pmSnap two-day poll. I suppose it'll finish just before Tuesday's game, although I'm not sure how the mechanism works (might end Tuesday midnight or summat).
Anyway, have a guess, for fun. Only allowed 20 poll options so I've bunched up at the bottom. Click wisely: no revotes allowed.
- Dave Sutton's barnet
- Immortal
- Posts: 28812
- Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 4:00 pm
- Location: Hanging on in quiet desperation
- Contact:
Re: Where will we finish?
I went for 8th. We'll give it a go but I suspect the gap might be slightly too large, and more to the point I think not enough teams above us will drop the ball enough: we need four patsies and while Sunderland are imploding and Wycombe are off-form, McDons look good and I think Wednesday will have enough – they have a relatively easy run-in until the last fortnight - so that needs us leaving either Plymouth or Oxford to drop nine points on us (with GD), and Plymouth have two games in hand.
Still, at the start of the season I predicted 8th-16th for us so this would be right at the top of that bracket, and nicely purring for next season.
Still, at the start of the season I predicted 8th-16th for us so this would be right at the top of that bracket, and nicely purring for next season.
- brommers95
- Reliable
- Posts: 866
- Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:10 pm
Re: Where will we finish?
Also went for 8th, we’ll continue this good form until the end of the season but can’t see us overcoming Oxford (8 points ahead of us and 11 goals ahead on GD) and Sheffield Wednesday (7 points ahead and a game in hand on us) who I think will grab the final two playoff spots below MK Dons and Plymouth.
Edit
feck it I’ve changed my vote after thinking about it some more. We’re on a roll - we’re sneaking into the playoffs on the final day.
Ian Evatt’s Super White Army
Edit
feck it I’ve changed my vote after thinking about it some more. We’re on a roll - we’re sneaking into the playoffs on the final day.
Ian Evatt’s Super White Army
- BWFC_Insane
- Immortal
- Posts: 36387
- Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:07 pm
Re: Where will we finish?
8th. I think we might come close for a few weeks. But by the last couple of games be just short.
Honestly I think there are probably just too many teams above us rather than the points ground being the issue. It’s just winning two or three more than several teams rather than just one or two.
Burton also showed we probably have the odd off day in us.
But yeah I think we can push right up there and 8th is an excellent finish and we’d be set for next season.
Honestly I think there are probably just too many teams above us rather than the points ground being the issue. It’s just winning two or three more than several teams rather than just one or two.
Burton also showed we probably have the odd off day in us.
But yeah I think we can push right up there and 8th is an excellent finish and we’d be set for next season.
- Bruce Rioja
- Immortal
- Posts: 38742
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 9:19 pm
- Location: Drifting into the arena of the unwell.
Re: Where will we finish?
8th also, and whereas I of course retain the blind optimism of the football supporter, that part of my mind that somehow gets me to my own bed despite me being utterly arseholed is telling me that the play-offs are a bridge too far this time around.
May the bridges I burn light your way
- GhostoftheBok
- Legend
- Posts: 7089
- Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:51 pm
Re: Where will we finish?
I have gone for 5th, because I think we will finish 5th.
Re: Where will we finish?
6/1 available on us to make the playoffs. If you genuinely think we'll finish 5th then that's tremendous value.GhostoftheBok wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:47 amI have gone for 5th, because I think we will finish 5th.
I also went for 8th, due to the current points gap and the number of teams above us. I think 6/1 is probably reflective of the actual probability (14%) of us doing it this year, so a live, but slim, chance. Couldn't really afford that Burton slip up.
- GhostoftheBok
- Legend
- Posts: 7089
- Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:51 pm
-
- Passionate
- Posts: 2414
- Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:23 pm
Re: Where will we finish?
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote: ↑Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:30 pmI went for 8th. We'll give it a go but I suspect the gap might be slightly too large, and more to the point I think not enough teams above us will drop the ball enough: we need four patsies and while Sunderland are imploding and Wycombe are off-form, McDons look good and I think Wednesday will have enough – they have a relatively easy run-in until the last fortnight - so that needs us leaving either Plymouth or Oxford to drop nine points on us (with GD), and Plymouth have two games in hand.
Still, at the start of the season I predicted 8th-16th for us so this would be right at the top of that bracket, and nicely purring for next season.
They do, but one thing worth noting is that their run in is horrendous. In their final seven matches they play each of the current top nine except the league leaders and Sheffield Wednesday. That offers plenty of scope for dropped points, not just for them but also for those in and around.
- Dave Sutton's barnet
- Immortal
- Posts: 28812
- Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 4:00 pm
- Location: Hanging on in quiet desperation
- Contact:
Re: Where will we finish?
Funny you should mention that. Been digging into the run-ins. All hunch and supposition and unscientific, but it passes a moment.nicholaldo wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:41 pmThey do, but one thing worth noting is that their run in is horrendous. In their final seven matches they play each of the current top nine except the league leaders and Sheffield Wednesday. That offers plenty of scope for dropped points, not just for them but also for those in and around.Dave Sutton's barnet wrote: ↑Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:30 pmI went for 8th. We'll give it a go but I suspect the gap might be slightly too large, and more to the point I think not enough teams above us will drop the ball enough: we need four patsies and while Sunderland are imploding and Wycombe are off-form, McDons look good and I think Wednesday will have enough – they have a relatively easy run-in until the last fortnight - so that needs us leaving either Plymouth or Oxford to drop nine points on us (with GD), and Plymouth have two games in hand.
Still, at the start of the season I predicted 8th-16th for us so this would be right at the top of that bracket, and nicely purring for next season.
Specifically, as I did last season, I’ve been having a look at who has to play who in the top 11 (Pompey, a place and 4pts behind us, have 3 games in hand on us so are worth including, for now at least).
By that rationale, Sheff Wed have the easiest run-in. They have 14 games left and don’t play anyone top-11 in their next 8 - which will probably become 9 as they’ll probably rearrange the Accy home fixture, postponed very close to kick-off last Wednesday, during that run. However, the do face 4 play-off contenders in their last five games – us, McDons, Wycombe and Pompey, with only Pompey being at home.
By contrast, as Nicko notes, 9 of Plymouth’s remaining 15 are against promotion-chasers, including the top two. In fact from mid-April their run-in is (home games in caps) Bolton, POMPEY, (ACCY, CHELTENHAM,) Ipswich, OXFORD, (Burton,) Wycombe, SUNDERLAND, Wigan, MK DONS. Like Sheff Weds, then, they’ll be looking to get points on the board – but on Saturday they host Rotherham…
Sunderland only have four games against promo-chasers, but they include the top two (plus Oxford and Plymouth). They’re also on the sort of massive wobble where their upcoming games all scream trouble - Burton and Wigan this week, after which they could be as low as 10th with much wailing and teeth-gnashing.
Wycombe are also in poor form and host the top two in their next five games, but after that they’ve only got Pompey, Plymouth and Wednesday from the top 11. Given they also presumably don’t suffer the same culture shock against long-ballers that we and some other promo-chasing aesthetes might, I’d probably and grudgingly back them to do enough for the top six.
Ipswich have a hella Easter hosting Rotherham then Wigan, but otherwise only 3 of their 13 are against top-11 teams. They play Pompey, Oxford and Plymouth on successive Saturdays in March.
Pompey have 16 games left and half of them are against top-10 teams, including hosting both the top two. Indeed they have a March run of Ipswich, Plymouth, WYCOMBE, us, ROTHERHAM. That’ll test their mettle, especially as they are officially the hardest-pressing side in the 92.
As for us, we have 5 “big” games in the final 13, with just McDons and Wigan away. Plymouth, Pompey and Wednesday must all come to our lovely wide spaces, and if they want to finish above us, they might have to help themselves by beating us. And if they don't, well, they'd better be careful...
- GhostoftheBok
- Legend
- Posts: 7089
- Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:51 pm
Re: Where will we finish?
On the topic of league performance, Evatt has managed to rile a few again by saying the "direct" teams might get out of League One but they're not equipped to stay in the Championship over the long term.
"You can't compete in the Championship being direct. You can't compete in the Championship being based on set plays."
We are apparently designing the side for sustained successes throughout the English football pyramid.
As you'd expect, "debate" has ensued.
"You can't compete in the Championship being direct. You can't compete in the Championship being based on set plays."
We are apparently designing the side for sustained successes throughout the English football pyramid.
As you'd expect, "debate" has ensued.
- Bruce Rioja
- Immortal
- Posts: 38742
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 9:19 pm
- Location: Drifting into the arena of the unwell.
Re: Where will we finish?
Burnden Paddock. If Gooner Girl's still up here, can you nip her into town to show her the Town Hall steps? That way she'll have a better understanding as to how we celebrate the unexpectedly successful conclusion of a most unlikely event?GhostoftheBok wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:47 amI have gone for 5th, because I think we will finish 5th.
May the bridges I burn light your way
- GhostoftheBok
- Legend
- Posts: 7089
- Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:51 pm
Re: Where will we finish?
Gets worse. I also think that, were we to finish 5th, we'd win the play-offs.Bruce Rioja wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:18 pmBurnden Paddock. If Gooner Girl's still up here, can you nip her into town to show her the Town Hall steps? That way she'll have a better understanding as to how we celebrate the unexpectedly successful conclusion of a most unlikely event?
I think just on pure progression of logic that means I think we will get promoted - which given our current position is utterly absurd.
I'll recover my sanity when Lincoln beat us 1-2 tomorrow.
- Worthy4England
- Immortal
- Posts: 32701
- Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 6:45 pm
Re: Where will we finish?
I think the missing words were "only by being" - Fulham are the highest scorers of set pieces in the Champo, But then they've scored 30 more goals than their nearest competition.GhostoftheBok wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:44 pmOn the topic of league performance, Evatt has managed to rile a few again by saying the "direct" teams might get out of League One but they're not equipped to stay in the Championship over the long term.
"You can't compete in the Championship being direct. You can't compete in the Championship being based on set plays."
We are apparently designing the side for sustained successes throughout the English football pyramid.
As you'd expect, "debate" has ensued.
- Bruce Rioja
- Immortal
- Posts: 38742
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 9:19 pm
- Location: Drifting into the arena of the unwell.
Re: Where will we finish?
I actually agree with this. The momentum we'd have gathered to get us into that position, if it did happen, would be incredible.GhostoftheBok wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:22 pm
Gets worse. I also think that, were we to finish 5th, we'd win the play-offs.
May the bridges I burn light your way
- GhostoftheBok
- Legend
- Posts: 7089
- Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:51 pm
Re: Where will we finish?
Stop it. You'll only encourage me.Bruce Rioja wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:51 pmI actually agree with this. The momentum we'd have gathered to get us into that position, if it did happen, would be incredible.
- Bruce Rioja
- Immortal
- Posts: 38742
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 9:19 pm
- Location: Drifting into the arena of the unwell.
Re: Where will we finish?
Me? I've just checked my wallet to see if I've a spare tenner. 6/1 you say?GhostoftheBok wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:04 pmStop it. You'll only encourage me.Bruce Rioja wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:51 pmI actually agree with this. The momentum we'd have gathered to get us into that position, if it did happen, would be incredible.
May the bridges I burn light your way
- sonicthewhite
- Dedicated
- Posts: 1771
- Joined: Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:55 pm
- Location: Telford
Re: Where will we finish?
Mrs Sonic checked my wallet as well for a spare tenner. If I had one I certainly haven't nowBruce Rioja wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:12 pmMe? I've just checked my wallet to see if I've a spare tenner. 6/1 you say?GhostoftheBok wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:04 pmStop it. You'll only encourage me.Bruce Rioja wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:51 pmI actually agree with this. The momentum we'd have gathered to get us into that position, if it did happen, would be incredible.
Age and treachery will always overcome youth and skill!
And the key to a result is a good
And the key to a result is a good
- BWFC_Insane
- Immortal
- Posts: 36387
- Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:07 pm
Re: Where will we finish?
I mean as pointed out the side scoring the most set pieces currently sit top. So not sure that works out.GhostoftheBok wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:44 pmOn the topic of league performance, Evatt has managed to rile a few again by saying the "direct" teams might get out of League One but they're not equipped to stay in the Championship over the long term.
"You can't compete in the Championship being direct. You can't compete in the Championship being based on set plays."
We are apparently designing the side for sustained successes throughout the English football pyramid.
As you'd expect, "debate" has ensued.
I’d also say that the higher you go up the pyramid the more difficult it is to have better players technically than your rivals, so the more you need to rely on stopping other teams playing their game and winning based on margins.
I’d say we saw a very good group of players go up from the championship yet struggle in the premiership under Todd because they were simply not able to stop the opposition and grind wins out at that level. But they played football.
Yet we saw Allardyce take up a lesser set of players and keep them there because they were able to accept virtually every team we played had technically better players but we found ways to stop them and play games that suited us.
That becomes more critical as you go up the leagues and your relative quality diminishes.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 25 guests