Fleecing the Rams. Away V.Derby County, Sat 21st Jan.3.0' clock.

[officer_dibble]

Michael James & Sharon Brittan have been a life saver for BWFC, without them we wouldn't have a club and to be where we are challenging in the play off's is testament (if that's the right word ?) to them. We have improved window after window under Evatt but today just showed that that extra bit of quality is the difference.

Our model of bringing in lots of young players with sell on potential is fine & has worked to date, but to make that next step (if that's what everyone wants) means bringing in some experienced championship quality players probably on wages higher than we are currently paying and can afford & for me that's where the club is currently at - its a risk either way and it's not my money therefore I can't advise which is best for the club, however if we want to get out of League 1 in the next year or so then FV need to speculate or seek some serious investment otherwise IMO this is us for the foreseeable - crowds up, the football is a lot better to watch but we will continue to struggle against the top 3 or 4 teams who have better quality players. We have a decent side but not quite at the level of the teams above us & without speculating a little its difficult in seeing how we address that gap to the higher spending League 1 teams.

Welcome back, Bertie. I'm in this "bucket" we've gone from non-existant to "solid L1." Combo of board pulling us out of admin and Evatt driving play-style. We're not out of admin, in the sense we've paid all the bills, patience is a virtue...

I suspect 5 years ago a double promotion on a shoestring for a ‘big club’ was possible (league 2 to champ), though Sheff U struggled to escape. We’re probably on schedule for stability…

[jmjhb]

I actually think we're doing fine and this was an expected loss

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

The fact we're here discussing this tells me the club are more or less getting things right. The future is more important than getting to Wembley, or a single promotion. I think the finances mean Evatt has to break a couple of things in the team in order to fix them better if that makes sense.

Time for one or two fans to put their big pants on and accept we haven't yet got enough yet to get where we'd all like to.

[officer_dibble]

Anyone watching how was Dempsey? Feels like this is the kind of game he just isn’t quite good enough to step up for. I’d love to have loaned that Matete - watch him for one of plymouths goals yesterday.

[GhostoftheBok]

Okay, a bit more sober reflection and having watched the game again...I still feel that Aimson/Morley press was the story of the game, as was obvious from kick off.

Only Nlundulu really showed up and he was shagged after the half. Honourable mentions to Dempsey and Toal, who could have been part of a winning performance. Aside from that, they looked like deer in headlights.

People can have opinions about what the game is and what makes a player good, but we saw yesterday why Aimson probably isn't a longer term fit here. He's been terrific recently when all he's had to do is defend the 18 yard box and then give the ball to Morley. But yesterday he had to take responsibility for the whole of that role in the middle, due to the press on Morley, and it was a disaster.

Derby ushered the ball to Aimson and Trafford (whose play with his feet is also a weakness for us) and said, "Go on, pass it beyond 10 yards."

The vast majority of the defending we do as a team is outside the 18 yard box and if you struggle with that side of the game you'll be in trouble, especially against the best sides.

The other notable thing was Aimson continuously demanding Toal and Johnston drop back and sit deeper. That strung out the space between our centre backs and strikers by about 15-20 yards and made those passes AImson was being asked to make even more difficult. When (Johnston especially) stepped up, to play the role of ball-winner in midfield, Aimson wouldn't move up the 10 yards necessary. Morley tried to fill that gap that was left, but because Aimson wanted to sit so deep it was too big a space to cover and we were wide open. This was the biggest killer in the entire game, as ideally we want to be passing as short as possible before we change gears into attack.

Derby, in truth, could have had 5. I think Aimson is a good player and he's done brilliantly for us recently in a more limited role. He's not what we need in that back three on a regular basis, though. He doesn't deserve to be dropped on one bad performance (and regardless of tactics, he was just bad), but it may be that he gets dropped for purely tactical reasons in the near future. People will complain about Evatt playing favourites with Santos, I'd expect, but it's blindingly obvious why a player like that is favoured.

Lee was also awful yesterday, Bradley is in a real dip in form, Williams isn't fit (and the back three left him totally isolated with their deeper line), etc. None of them are tactical issues, though, they were just crap.

I don't want it to seem like I have an issue with Will, because I don't. I think he's a good player. He's just not good outside his 18 yard box. In it, he's usually golden. If/when he leaves he needs to go to a club that just needs a box-defender and then people can complain that he's playing brilliantly and it was a mistake letting him go.

[GhostoftheBok]

Anyone watching how was Dempsey? Feels like this is the kind of game he just isn’t quite good enough to step up for. I’d love to have loaned that Matete - watch him for one of plymouths goals yesterday.

Showed up, but didn't stand a chance in a midfield that open. He snapped at players, but was always too late to impact play because the space between out back and forward lines was vast.

[BWFC_Insane]

The thing for me is Derby are good enough to have played down the channels against a higher line. I agree with the analysis that Aimson dragged back the line too deep. But one of the reasons that happened is Derby dominated the midfield and increasingly we couldn’t pressure the ball. Against a higher line they had the quality to pick us off in equal measure. And personally I think the press of the front two and Lee would have struggled against them to impact them enough regardless of the back line. Derby were noticeably stronger and sharper and quicker in the midfield areas and so much so even Marc Iles commented on that. When you face a team like that you are struggling. And probably our best hope was sucking them in on the counter as Evatt suggested but we lost too much shape for the first goal. Williams was a big problem I think and perhaps yesterday shows how far off the pace he is right now.

I think we missed Dad Bod massively. Big Dan showed he has something but no way should he be starting a game like that yet as he’s miles off the fitness levels you want and would be better coming on for the last half hour. That has to be a priority in finding someone to do Dad Bods role. From the championship really. Anyone have a list of availables?

I’d bring santos and Jones on for Aimson and Johnston for Tuesday. Just to rest them. Has to be managed carefully but needs some rotation and we need to look at Jones on the left and give santos some minutes I think.

Probably also play Shola for Lee. And I’d be bold and start Sadlier up top with Charles. See what it looks like. It’s going to be a tough game. We must take it seriously. But it’s also a game we need to take our chances in and right now it’s worth a look at those two up top in absence of other options.

[BWFC_Insane]

The fact we're here discussing this tells me the club are more or less getting things right. The future is more important than getting to Wembley, or a single promotion. I think the finances mean Evatt has to break a couple of things in the team in order to fix them better if that makes sense.

Time for one or two fans to put their big pants on and accept we haven't yet got enough yet to get where we'd all like to.

I think you are misrepresenting what anyone is saying. If the club needed to sell Dapo and can’t reinvest and it’s just about survival in league one then they can come and say that. Explain that we have been saved but realistically without investment this is it.

But they aren’t saying that. They are talking about having money to spend even without selling Dapo or Baka. And wanting promotion. The decision to sell players is a football one and not a financial one though the two are inevitably wrapped up. But in our position assuming the club still has the ambition to progress as they say then we have to ensure we can compete this second half of the season. If they don’t what happens to season tickets next time? Will fans be as keen to back this if we have sold two strikers and don’t replace them? I suspect they won’t.

Football fInance is a balance. For god sake don’t risk the future. But the tight rope to walk is to not leave people feeling like you are just here to make up the numbers. That turns bad quite quickly. And next season we will lose more players. And still where ever our budget position is now it won’t suddenly improve next year as three more come down.

[GhostoftheBok]

The thing for me is Derby are good enough to have played down the channels against a higher line. I agree with the analysis that Aimson dragged back the line too deep. But one of the reasons that happened is Derby dominated the midfield and increasingly we couldn’t pressure the ball. Against a higher line they had the quality to pick us off in equal measure. And personally I think the press of the front two and Lee would have struggled against them to impact them enough regardless of the back line. Derby were noticeably stronger and sharper and quicker in the midfield areas and so much so even Marc Iles commented on that. When you face a team like that you are struggling. And probably our best hope was sucking them in on the counter as Evatt suggested but we lost too much shape for the first goal. Williams was a big problem I think and perhaps yesterday shows how far off the pace he is right now.

I think we missed Dad Bod massively. Big Dan showed he has something but no way should he be starting a game like that yet as he’s miles off the fitness levels you want and would be better coming on for the last half hour. That has to be a priority in finding someone to do Dad Bods role. From the championship really. Anyone have a list of availables?

I’d bring santos and Jones on for Aimson and Johnston for Tuesday. Just to rest them. Has to be managed carefully but needs some rotation and we need to look at Jones on the left and give santos some minutes I think.

Probably also play Shola for Lee. And I’d be bold and start Sadlier up top with Charles. See what it looks like. It’s going to be a tough game. We must take it seriously. But it’s also a game we need to take our chances in and right now it’s worth a look at those two up top in absence of other options.

I think I agree with most of that. Only Nlundulu, Toal and Dempsey were close to where they needed to be for us to win a game of football against Derby at their place. However, I think even if we showed up they'd have beaten us due to the tactical issues mentioned. If we'd shown up, we could have won without those issues - but even so they're just better than us right now.

Evatt will have to earn his crust on player management. Aimson has done well and should be rewarded for that, not punished for a bad game; so if Evatt does bring Santos in (the players will have already known who was likely to start Tuesday) regularly again he will have to lay out to Will exactly why it is happening.

Aimson, for his part, seems like a proper pro. Not the sort to have a tantrum, but I do think that if he drops out of regular contention again he will resolve to go in the summer. He may have already made that decision. If he hadn't, we may have made it for him.

I think what Derby showed us is stuff we already knew.

We have to be absolutely spot on tactically to make up for a difference in raw quality. We don't have that midfielder, the 10 (because he's just shown up) or the depth in attack that we've been in need of for the whole season.

Bod, like you say, was a miss and would have started. I don't think he'd have made a telling difference in terms of the result, but he'd have started.

We can't rotate Bradley out for a couple of games in this dip due to a shortage of options. We can't work Williams in gradually for the same reason.

[Worthy4England]

I think anyone coming in is going to take a couple of games...Flossie wasn't an "insta-hit" didn't we spend a couple of games musing that he looked like a right wing, rather than right back?

[GhostoftheBok]

I think you are misrepresenting what anyone is saying. If the club needed to sell Dapo and can’t reinvest and it’s just about survival in league one then they can come and say that. Explain that we have been saved but realistically without investment this is it.

But they aren’t saying that. They are talking about having money to spend even without selling Dapo or Baka

Just in terms of footy finances, that's not unusual.

Money can be available for a specific need, but incoming money from player sales can still be claimed for non-football stuff.

There may have been money made available to strengthen, but we could have known that part of that was the need to sell players in the next couple of windows. The fact Dapo has gone now rather than the summer then wouldn't have any impact on our ability to spend. The money from him (or someone else) going was already tagged for other stuff.

Not saying that's what has happened, but it would be fairly standard.

Having cash available now doesn't mean that more cash coming in is also available, it can mean exactly the opposite.

[BWFC_Insane]

I think you are misrepresenting what anyone is saying. If the club needed to sell Dapo and can’t reinvest and it’s just about survival in league one then they can come and say that. Explain that we have been saved but realistically without investment this is it.

But they aren’t saying that. They are talking about having money to spend even without selling Dapo or Baka

Just in terms of footy finances, that's not unusual.

Money can be available for a specific need, but incoming money from player sales can still be claimed for non-football stuff.

There may have been money made available to strengthen, but we could have known that part of that was the need to sell players in the next couple of windows. The fact Dapo has gone now rather than the summer then wouldn't have any impact on our ability to spend. The money from him (or someone else) going was already tagged for other stuff.

Not saying that's what has happened, but it would be fairly standard.

Having cash available now doesn't mean that more cash coming in is also available, it can mean exactly the opposite.

I mean I don’t want to get into a debate about football finance here. My point is they are saying money is there to spend on a striker and was even if we’d kept Dapo. So you know that’s not a message of ‘we just have to accept league one as it’s our financial level’.

I actually have zero criticism of FV. My concern is that we have an inexperienced manager who is not maximising our chances of going up. Derby appointed a better proven bloke and he looks like he’s taken that group and made them a lot better than they were. Yes they were below us. Yes they’ve had more wages to spend. But Warne has made a palpable difference and they seem drama free relatively. I still think we could and should be closer to them with the players we had from the start and we’ve lacked their simple hard running, power and work ethic on a consistent basis yet there is no reason we should.

I also think it’s a big risk changing this much in January when we were 5th.

If the model is Plymouth as you suggest then let’s compare us to them next season. And for me the judgement is on the owners but on Evatt. I still think we are short of where a manager who really knows what they are doing would have us.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

And still where ever our budget position is now it won’t suddenly improve next year as three more come down.

Just to pick up on this - not necessarily to quibble but to open a mini-topic on the side.

In Evatt's first third-tier season, 2021/22, the freshly relegated teams finished 2nd (promoted), 4th and 6th. We looked on from 9th position (actually usually 10th until the dying minutes of the season) as they disappeared over the points horizon - but two of them came sheepishly back again for the new term, having failed in the playoffs.

This season, the freshly relegated teams currently sit 4th, 6th and 7th; still notable, but less so. We're 5th, and the only relegatee currently above us is Derby; to get there they have been through two managers and an almost complete squad change. The other two have also changed their manager since relegation, one mid-stream.

So while those coming down will represent a threat, I don't think they're necessarily nailed on for an exclusive three-way bunfight.

Wigan appear to oscillate all over the place - and unlike Rotherham and Wycombe in 2021/22, they've turfed the manager that took them up.
Blackpool have had a very tricky decade since Ollie's miracle, and they're far more of a "sneak into the playoffs and go up" club than a touring Circus of Massive.
Huddersfield - not sure how well they would react to relegation. Still carrying some expensive duffers, still some questions over ownership liquidity. They might be good; they might be in big trouble.
Similar could also be said of Cardiff, Birmingham, Stoke, Bristol City and Hull, all floating above the drop zone; none of them look particularly prepared for a dip in the third. Rotherham are more solid but they've lost their promotion-regular manager.

Just a thought, anyway.

[GhostoftheBok]

But Warne has made a palpable difference

What would you be saying about Warne if he'd come into a basket case club with no players, who could have gone out of the Football League, and had them pushing for promotion to the Championship in less than 3 years?

[BWFC_Insane]

But Warne has made a palpable difference

What would you be saying about Warne if he'd come into a basket case club with no players, who could have gone out of the Football League, and had them pushing for promotion to the Championship in less than 3 years?

I don’t think Evatt could go into Derby and turn them round like Warne has. Without grandiose talk about football or style Warne has made them the best team in this league imho. They won’t get top two as they started too far behind and yes they’ve got some investments there.

But it’s still impressive. He knows how to get out of this league. He’s also not constantly ripping things up to start again. Which is my big worry about our manager.

[GhostoftheBok]

Also, just as a note, Warne was also a young and untested manager at Rotherham. He had plenty of "drama", including with our friend Sadlier. He did a good job, but he also showed he couldn't keep Rotherham in the Championship. His record being 24th, 22nd and 23rd - despite them have considerably higher budgets than us.

Not convinced by the whole "Warne is much better than Evatt" narrative, to be honest. I think he's good, but he had 3 goes at the Championship and couldn't hack it in any of them.

I'd suggest that we could be fairly certain that Warne here wouldn't do the job we need. On our budgets, I'd stick with Evatt.

[jmjhb]

A midfielder and a striker in and that's an adequate window for me. Having said that there is a lot more work to do in summer.

[Prufrock]

Also, just as a note, Warne was also a young and untested manager at Rotherham. He had plenty of "drama", including with our friend Sadlier. He did a good job, but he also showed he couldn't keep Rotherham in the Championship. His record being 24th, 22nd and 23rd - despite them have considerably higher budgets than us.

Not convinced by the whole "Warne is much better than Evatt" narrative, to be honest. I think he's good, but he had 3 goes at the Championship and couldn't hack it in any of them.

I'd suggest that we could be fairly certain that Warne here wouldn't do the job we need. On our budgets, I'd stick with Evatt.

Absolutely, grass is always greener. He's a good manager of course, but it's very easy to just dismiss the money.

Hourihane and McGoldrick were both semi-regulars for parachute payments Sheff U last year, and both gone to Derby from Premier League contracts. I *shudder* to think what they are on. I suspect their wages would pay for at least our five top earners.

Money doesn't guarantee the success, and Warne has done well, but Evatt has also done a marvelous job here so far.

McGoldrick was superb yesterday. Yes we helped by dropping off leaving the space for him to pick up but there are very few (I'd say likely no) other forwards at this level who can punish you as well for it.

[Prufrock]

Though also noticeable that Sads and Warne seemed on good terms after the game. Their "falling out" seems to be very much on a football rather than personal level. Which is a skill in itself.

[BWFC_Insane]

My view is this. We aren’t going to have much of a better squad than this. Relatively speaking. We went into this season with a squad that showed top two or three form last season. We had replaced Fossey with Bradley. We had four strikers who had been firing.

Now I think it’s hard to see us having the sort of squad Derby have. Ever. So it’s going to be about managing this sort of squad to overachieve. If we want to get out.

I don’t think there will be significant progress from here unless we are more efficient or some investment is found.