We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:16 pm

If we fail to beat Barnsley it matters little who wins between Reading and Sunderland. If we beat Barnsley I'd pray for Sunderland beating Reading every single time.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:25 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:14 pm
Tue 24
Only one game: Barnsley’s spare, at Forest, who (as I type) haven’t scored in six games. Barnsley win. You know what that means.


0428.png


Sat 28
With hope in their hearts, doubt in their minds and their arses going ten-bob/threpenny-bit, nearly two thousand Bolton fans head for Burton (there’s only 1600 tickets but some lads will doubtless reckon they’ll chance it). Being relaxed by relegation will mystifyingly fail to turn Burton into Brazil and we’ll have a fingernail-hammering away win.

By that time there’ll only be one drop-slot left as Sunderland will have lost on Friday at Fulham (still battling Cardiff for autopromotion). But what of the sides above us?

Joyous at jumping two places with the midweek win at Forest, Barnsley find the going tougher against a Brentford side who’ve recently been on a good run: as I write, three successive hard-fought wins have hoisted them to within four points of the play-offs. Here’s a fact: Brentford have won to nil at every other team in the bottom seven. We’ll give Barnsley a point here but that may be generous.

Back on the wobble after the Wolves loss and Blades draw, Birmingham have to go to Loftus Road, where QPR have been rather good lately, whacking four past Norwich and then another four past Wednesday. Birmingham go for the win but get a point – although again, that may be more than they manage against a good team; the Blues’ three away wins thus far have come at Hillsborough, Bolton and Reading.

Speaking of Reading, Reading continue to stutter, drawing at home with Ipswich. All of which leaves Blues back below the line on goal difference.


0506.png


Sun 6 May
Bank holiday weekend, and the Sky is a-flutter. Not only do just two points separate four teams attempting to beat the drop, but two of those drop—dodgers are facing the teams in second and third, who may very well still have automatic promotion to play for (and if not, will be doing the trophy-presentation / steely-determination thing). And another

Despite Paul Clement’s best endeavours to win by looking angry, Reading lose at Cardiff; presumably Neil Warnock is very careful to shake his hand. That could mean Reading enjoy one of those relegations where you haven’t been in the drop zone until the last day, but they’re immensely glad to see that Birmingham can only draw at home to Fulham – cue, possibly, exultation all round at Cardiff while St Andrew’s is a morgue. But wait, what’s this? While Barnsley may only need a draw at Derby to stay up, Mr Adventurous Jose Morais sees his team caught on the counter by a home team gearing up for the play-offs.

While all our rivals have to play someone with skin in the game, we win against a flip-flopped Forest – this year’s Peterborough. On to the pitch, Sweet Caroline, and a massive exhalation through puffed-out cheeks. Let’s get to 46 points quicker next season, eh?

Final.png
You're gonna give yourself a coronary. There's a reason why Socrates rather than Nostradamus is the base philosopher behind the rise of Science.

I think you're beginning to conflate debate and prediction.

Reason for Edit: crap English.
Last edited by Lost Leopard Spot on Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Athertonian » Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:44 pm

We shouldn't have to keep relying on other teams to enable survival, we need to get back to winning ways before anything else. It also means we must score a goal in order to do just that. I can't see where our next goal is coming from let alone a win. The team has hit a low just at the wrong time.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by TANGODANCER » Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:00 pm

Athertonian wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:44 pm
We shouldn't have to keep relying on other teams to enable survival, we need to get back to winning ways before anything else. It also means we must score a goal in order to do just that. I can't see where our next goal is coming from let alone a win. The team has hit a low just at the wrong time.
It's simple mate; forget the 18 pass possession keeping, usually ending back with Ben the wallop, show some fight and attack the goals. No shots, no headers, no chance of scoring. :wink:
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:21 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:25 pm
You're gonna give yourself a coronary. There's a reason why Socrates rather than Nostradamus is the base philosopher behind the rise of Science.

I think you're beginning to conflate debate and prediction.

Reason for Edit: crap English.
I'm perfectly calm, my bespotted chum. And if you read it back, at the top of the first of the two posts (it wouldn't let me have more than three image files per post), I definitely said "It is, by its very definition, a blend of prediction and guesswork, but here’s my thoughts"; I'm not sure how that conflates debate and prediction, and I wasn't aware that that was a forum sin, 'cos I'd be far from the first guilty party. :D

How do you think it's gonna go?

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:30 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:21 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:25 pm
You're gonna give yourself a coronary. There's a reason why Socrates rather than Nostradamus is the base philosopher behind the rise of Science.

I think you're beginning to conflate debate and prediction.

Reason for Edit: crap English.
I'm perfectly calm, my bespotted chum. And if you read it back, at the top of the first of the two posts (it wouldn't let me have more than three image files per post), I definitely said "It is, by its very definition, a blend of prediction and guesswork, but here’s my thoughts"; I'm not sure how that conflates debate and prediction, and I wasn't aware that that was a forum sin, 'cos I'd be far from the first guilty party. :D

How do you think it's gonna go?
As it was firmly in the Nostradamus camp I can therefore respond accordingly:
I think we're going to crash at Barnsley, and yet beat Burton. This will need us relying on others - those others, as you are aware, are perfidious bastards, and therefore I am torn between hope and despair.
Speaking from a Socratic disposition - I've no idea. It will become clearer once Saturday is over.
By the way, there are no forum sins, just forum sinners 8) (of which you ain't one).
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:35 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:30 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:21 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:25 pm
You're gonna give yourself a coronary. There's a reason why Socrates rather than Nostradamus is the base philosopher behind the rise of Science.

I think you're beginning to conflate debate and prediction.

Reason for Edit: crap English.
I'm perfectly calm, my bespotted chum. And if you read it back, at the top of the first of the two posts (it wouldn't let me have more than three image files per post), I definitely said "It is, by its very definition, a blend of prediction and guesswork, but here’s my thoughts"; I'm not sure how that conflates debate and prediction, and I wasn't aware that that was a forum sin, 'cos I'd be far from the first guilty party. :D

How do you think it's gonna go?
As it was firmly in the Nostradamus camp I can therefore respond accordingly:
I think we're going to crash at Barnsley, and yet beat Burton. This will need us relying on others - those others, as you are aware, are perfidious bastards, and therefore I am torn between hope and despair.
Speaking from a Socratic disposition - I've no idea. It will become clearer once Saturday is over.
By the way, there are no forum sins, just forum sinners 8) (of which you ain't one).
I think this also. In fact I'm certain we'll lose Saturday but make it interesting somewhere down the line.

Its going to the last day, one way or the other. Can feel it in me bones.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:50 pm

Ha!

Yeah, as you can see I expect it to get worse... before it gets better. Maybe I'll only be half-right...

But besides the hunches and guesswork there are definite statistical reasons to be cheerful:
• Barnsley's appalling home record
• Burton's appalling home record
• Reading's recent absence of chances and shots, allied to them only keeping seven clean sheets all season (only Sunderland have fewer)
• Birmingham failing to score in 48% of their home matches
• Forest's appalling recent form/goal drought (no goals or obviously wins in six games, only 3 wins in last 20) http://www.soccerstats.com/team.asp?lea ... ttm-forest
• Judged by the specifically home-or-away PPG of opponents, we have the division's second-easiest run-in (only Wolves have it better): http://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?le ... nd2&tid=10
• If it comes down to the last day, we have the least successful opponents (as judged by, er, the league table)

None of that means jack unless we step it up, but there are definite signs, by unbiased statistical analyses, that this is a very saveable situation. As you say, Saturday is ginormhuge.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Mar » Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:22 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:50 pm
Ha!

Yeah, as you can see I expect it to get worse... before it gets better. Maybe I'll only be half-right...

But besides the hunches and guesswork there are definite statistical reasons to be cheerful:
• Barnsley's appalling home record
• Burton's appalling home record
• Reading's recent absence of chances and shots, allied to them only keeping seven clean sheets all season (only Sunderland have fewer)
• Birmingham failing to score in 48% of their home matches
• Forest's appalling recent form/goal drought (no goals or obviously wins in six games, only 3 wins in last 20) http://www.soccerstats.com/team.asp?lea ... ttm-forest
• Judged by the specifically home-or-away PPG of opponents, we have the division's second-easiest run-in (only Wolves have it better): http://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?le ... nd2&tid=10
• If it comes down to the last day, we have the least successful opponents (as judged by, er, the league table)

None of that means jack unless we step it up, but there are definite signs, by unbiased statistical analyses, that this is a very saveable situation. As you say, Saturday is ginormhuge.
Good to see these sort of statistics, gives us some hope at least. However, it's these sort of statistics that would've been waxing lyrical about us not losing to Millwall for 40'odd years.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Sun Apr 15, 2018 3:55 pm

Well, we had it it in our own hands until yesterday. Now, despite the mathematical improbability of it all, even if we win all three remaining matches we can still get relegated, whereas if we'd won yesterday that wasn't possible.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Abdoulaye's Twin » Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:04 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Sun Apr 15, 2018 3:55 pm
Well, we had it it in our own hands until yesterday. Now, despite the mathematical improbability of it all, even if we win all three remaining matches we can still get relegated, whereas if we'd won yesterday that wasn't possible.
There was feck all probability of us winning the next 3 so a mute point :wink:

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by jmjhb » Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:47 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Sun Apr 15, 2018 3:55 pm
Well, we had it it in our own hands until yesterday. Now, despite the mathematical improbability of it all, even if we win all three remaining matches we can still get relegated, whereas if we'd won yesterday that wasn't possible.
On the other hand we can lose all 3 and stay up!

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Apr 15, 2018 8:20 pm

Barnsley 2-2 Bolton
Burton 3-1 Derby
Reading 2-2 Sunderland
Wolves 2-0 Birmingham

Five out of the six drop-dodgers got the results I predicted. JSL :D

Exception was Burton who suddenly woke up and won their derby against Derby. That makes it less likely that they’ll be down by the time we bob round on 28 April – it’d require us to beat Wolves, for a start – but we’ll see.
Screen Shot 2018-04-15 at 19.53.04.png
Screen Shot 2018-04-15 at 19.53.04.png (22.7 KiB) Viewed 321 times
Reminder of this weekend’s fixtures:
Sheff Wed-Reading
Bolton-Wolves (ulp)
Birmingham-Blades
Leeds-Barnsley
Sunderland-Burton

COYWM

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:01 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Apr 15, 2018 8:20 pm
Barnsley 2-2 Bolton
Burton 3-1 Derby
Reading 2-2 Sunderland
Wolves 2-0 Birmingham

Five out of the six drop-dodgers got the results I predicted. JSL :D

Exception was Burton who suddenly woke up and won their derby against Derby. That makes it less likely that they’ll be down by the time we bob round on 28 April – it’d require us to beat Wolves, for a start – but we’ll see.

Screen Shot 2018-04-15 at 19.53.04.png

Reminder of this weekend’s fixtures:
Sheff Wed-Reading
Bolton-Wolves (ulp)
Birmingham-Blades
Leeds-Barnsley
Sunderland-Burton

COYWM
Really need a draw in that Sunderland Burton game, otherwise it brings one of them back in it. If there is a winner than pray its Sunderland - who still have to travel to Fulham.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:05 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:01 am
Really need a draw in that Sunderland Burton game, otherwise it brings one of them back in it. If there is a winner than pray its Sunderland - who still have to travel to Fulham.
Burton are five points and 15 goals behind us with three games left; they can only get to 44pts by winning all three games, including our little head-to-head. If they catch us we're f*cked, especially as it'd mean we'd have to beat Wolves to reach your 44pt target. I'm genuinely more interested in Reading, who are only 3pts away (albeit effectively 4 with GD). Certainly vastly more interested in Barnsley and Blues.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:23 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:05 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:01 am
Really need a draw in that Sunderland Burton game, otherwise it brings one of them back in it. If there is a winner than pray its Sunderland - who still have to travel to Fulham.
Burton are five points and 15 goals behind us with three games left; they can only get to 44pts by winning all three games, including our little head-to-head. If they catch us we're f*cked, especially as it'd mean we'd have to beat Wolves to reach your 44pt target. I'm genuinely more interested in Reading, who are only 3pts away (albeit effectively 4 with GD). Certainly vastly more interested in Barnsley and Blues.
Yep. What I mean is, if Burton were to win next week, they'd still fancy having half a chance. I'd rather play them dead and buried.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:12 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:23 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:05 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:01 am
Really need a draw in that Sunderland Burton game, otherwise it brings one of them back in it. If there is a winner than pray its Sunderland - who still have to travel to Fulham.
Burton are five points and 15 goals behind us with three games left; they can only get to 44pts by winning all three games, including our little head-to-head. If they catch us we're f*cked, especially as it'd mean we'd have to beat Wolves to reach your 44pt target. I'm genuinely more interested in Reading, who are only 3pts away (albeit effectively 4 with GD). Certainly vastly more interested in Barnsley and Blues.
Yep. What I mean is, if Burton were to win next week, they'd still fancy having half a chance. I'd rather play them dead and buried.
True, and so would I – but I bet you an internet pint that if they are, someone will say they're "free of worry and likely to play better".

But it's unlikely they'll be mathematically down when we go there. Even if they lose they'll be on 35pts so they'd need at least two of us (40pts), Barnsley (38pts) and Birmingham (40pts) to be on 42pts. That requires two of the following:
(1) us beating Wolves
(2) Birmingham beating Blades
(3) Barnsley winning at both Leeds and Forest
...plus Sunderland winning (to beat Burton), which is never a wise bet.

There's a middle ground in which Burton are "all but mathematically down": if they lose and two of us, Birmingham and Barnsley get to 41pts. That needs Blues to draw with Blades and/or us to draw with Wolves and/or Barnsley to get 3+ points from Leeds and Forest. Then Burton would need at least four results (over two matchdays) to go their way with a 15-goal swing.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:23 pm

If Burton lost against Sunderland they'd be dead and buried. Which will mean Burton would be free of worry and likely to rake us over the coals. ( :wink: )
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:28 pm

The most galling thing is that despite all the emotional turmoil this season has given me (admittedly mostly down than up) I can't make any of the last three matches. Just as the weather's turning and we look like scraping through. What a bummer.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:01 am

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:28 pm
The most galling thing is that despite all the emotional turmoil this season has given me (admittedly mostly down than up) I can't make any of the last three matches. Just as the weather's turning and we look like scraping through. What a bummer.
Well that's jinxed us now hasn't it?

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