We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Apr 17, 2018 10:00 am

Aye, I doubt I'll see the Whites in the flesh again this season – unless I totally balls up the bank holiday weekend (also my birthday weekend) by driving up north for the Forest game. We'll see. Kinda depends how this thread goes...

Experimental 361's latest number-crunching has us more likely than Barnsley and Blues to stay up.
https://experimental361.com/2018/04/15/ ... -apr-2018/

2018-04-15-ch-probs.png
2018-04-15-ch-probs.png (33.41 KiB) Viewed 812 times
That has us 69% likely to stay up (Tykes 65%, Blues 63%). Before the weekend we were 59%, Tykes 71%, Blues 72%. There’s gonna be big swings as the remaining number of games reduces by increasing increments (ie going down from three remaining fixtures to two is a bigger step than going down from seven to six). That said, I wouldn't imagine it would have us as too likely to beat Wolves, so it's more likely to be influenced by our rivals' results against Blades and Leeds this Saturday.

Futurology fans may like this site: http://hasithappened.net

And if you want a good old-fashioned predictor to fill in: http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calc ... mpionship/
<ponders possibilities>

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by throwawayboltonian » Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:50 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Tue Apr 17, 2018 10:00 am
Aye, I doubt I'll see the Whites in the flesh again this season – unless I totally balls up the bank holiday weekend (also my birthday weekend) by driving up north for the Forest game. We'll see. Kinda depends how this thread goes...

Experimental 361's latest number-crunching has us more likely than Barnsley and Blues to stay up.

That has us 69% likely to stay up (Tykes 65%, Blues 63%). Before the weekend we were 59%, Tykes 71%, Blues 72%.
There’s gonna be big swings as the remaining number of games reduces by increasing increments (ie going down from three remaining fixtures to two is a bigger step than going down from seven to six). That said, I wouldn't imagine it would have us as too likely to beat Wolves, so it's more likely to be influenced by our rivals' results against Blades and Leeds this Saturday.

Futurology fans may like this site: http://hasithappened.net

And if you want a good old-fashioned predictor to fill in: http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calc ... mpionship/
<ponders possibilities>
Similar values over at fivethirtyeight https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... mpionship/

We're at 25% likely to go down; Brum 34%; Barnsley 44%; Burton 97%; Sunderland 99%.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Prufrock » Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:58 pm

This thread is what it would look like if Collaterlie Sisters covered for Alan Partridge while he was on holiday.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:00 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:58 pm
This thread is what it would look like if Collaterlie Sisters covered for Alan Partridge while he was on holiday.
old.jpg
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:D :P

(Cheers TAB)

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:26 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:01 am
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:28 pm
The most galling thing is that despite all the emotional turmoil this season has given me (admittedly mostly down than up) I can't make any of the last three matches. Just as the weather's turning and we look like scraping through. What a bummer.
Well that's jinxed us now hasn't it?
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:30 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:00 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:58 pm
This thread is what it would look like if Collaterlie Sisters covered for Alan Partridge while he was on holiday.
old.jpg
:D :P

(Cheers TAB)
:lol:
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:48 pm

Useful that Fulham hammered Millwall 3-0 at the Den tonight: Millwall stay on 69pts in the last slot and we want the play-off and automatic race to stay as open as possible. Besides Blues hosting Blades (66pts) tomorrow, next Saturday Barnsley host Brentford (currently 65pts) while Sunderland are at Fulham; then on the last day Barnsley are at Derby (currently 68pts), Burton are at Preston (currently 66pts) while Birmingham host Fulham and Reading go to Cardiff.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Mar » Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:54 am

Remaining fixtures:

Reading: Ipswich (H), Cardiff (A)
Birmingham: QPR (A), Fulham (H)
Bolton: Burton (A), Forest (H)
Barnsley: Forest (A), Brentford (H), Derby (A)
Burton: Bolton (H), Preston (A)
Sunderland (relegated): Fulham (A), Wolves (H)


We've arguably got the easiest run in of the bunch but we have the worst form in the run in.

Forest look like they're capable of playing a massive role in proceedings, hopefully they'll do us a favour in front of their own fans.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Athertonian » Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:43 am

Should they get nothing from Burton I don't fancy the last game V Forest for three points. We can't score goals nor defend. Should we get relegated again I can't even see this squad as a force in Div one.
I think Anderson expected us to remain in this league as a potential attraction to buyers but, that has yet to happen. I wouldn't place my trust in Parkinson to get us back out of that league, he struggled every season with Bradford. I fear for the whole future of the club should the worst happen.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by TANGODANCER » Sun Apr 22, 2018 12:39 pm

Mar wrote:
Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:54 am

We've arguably got the easiest run in of the bunch but we have the worst form in the run in.
That's because we have almost the worst team in the Division. Should we stay up, how many exactly are fit to play in this league? Wheats and Beevers are probably on their last round ups and apart from Sammi and possibly Alf, how many are real prospects? That's assuming anybody actually wants to play for us?
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Harry Genshaw » Sun Apr 22, 2018 12:47 pm

Athertonian wrote:
Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:43 am
I wouldn't place my trust in Parkinson to get us back out of that league, he struggled every season with Bradford. I fear for the whole future of the club should the worst happen.
I think struggled is a bit harsh. After taking them up from the 4th division, in his 3 season's there they finished 11th, 7th, then 5th when they lost in the play offs.

If we go down, we'll want someone with experience of that division, a proven track record and someone used to working on a tight budget. That's Parky for me. He'd be on borrowed time but it would make sense sticking with him
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Athertonian » Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:05 pm

Finishing in those positions are all and well providing your fans are just happy by that. Bolton fans wont settle for anything less than promotion. Parkinson has had his time and failed. The bloke still doesn't know his best eleven, and that shows every week when we see the team selection. Fail to win next week, the hounds will be restless.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:52 pm

Birmingham 2-1 Sheff Utd
Bolton 0-4 Wolves
Leeds 2-1 Barnsley
Sheffield Wed 3-0 Reading
Sunderland 1-2 Burton

Another weekend where the majority of the drop-dodgers failed to apply those turbo-boosts of desperation and get a "funny result". Of the four who weren't playing each other, only one won.

Having lost to us and Barnsley, Sheffield United made it a hat-trick of B-for-Balls-ups by getting b-b-beat b-b-by B-B-Birmingham, despite going in front early doors. Blues are now five points clear of 22nd and might just feel they’re OK; they travel to QPR next weekend before finishing at home to Fulham, who will hopefully still be in the hunt for automatic promotion. But it does feel like Blues will do enough.

They’re now level with Reading, who were once again shite in losing 3-0 at Sheffield Wednesday. They had one effort on target, to go with previous hauls under Clement of 1, 0, 1, 0 and 6 (v Sunderland: they drew). As they finish at Cardiff, all their eggs are in next week’s basket: home to Ipswich.

Reading’s defence will be weakened for the last two games as former rag Tyler Blackett was sent off for kicking out at our mate Adthe Nuhiu. On a similar note, Forest centre-back Danny Fox may get a retrospective ban for elbowing Cardiff’s Callum Paterson last night - the ref didn’t yellow-card him so a ban is possible, although if they’re quick it could happen before Tuesday’s game against Barnsley.

Ah, Barnsley. They lost against their old gaffer Paul Heckingbottom at Leeds, and although they might have had a late penalty (and Kieffer Moore mystifyingly missed a goal-line sitter), the only goal they got was a lucky oggie. With two wins since NYD and their PPG lower under Morais than it was under the last guy, Barnsley need help.

Screen Shot 2018-04-22 at 13.51.15.png
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Their famous game in hand comes on Tuesday at Forest, then it’s Brentford at home – and the Bees are on top-three form lately, unbeaten in seven with four wins in five, and they’ve discovered the knack of winningly narrowly (1-0s v Bristol City, Ipswich and Forest, and then yesterday 2-1 v QPR). They’re also just one point outside the play-offs, although that might grow if (if) Derby beat Cardiff in midweek. Brentford are coming along nicely and I’m very glad they’ll be going into this game on form and with a purpose. Hopefully by beating the Tykes, Brentford can put pressure on Derby… who, the following week, host Barnsley.

I’m far from convinced that Birmingham are safe, and Reading even less so. There’s also a threat from below with Burton, although we can deal with that on Saturday. It’ll be a fascinating and frankly frightening game. Depending on other results, including Barnsley’s midweeker:
• either team could be relegated
• a home win could leave Bolton relegated and Burton all but mathematically (above us but trailing Barnsley by 3pts and 15+ goals)
• a draw could leave Burton relegated and Bolton all but mathematically (above Burton but trailing Barnsley by 3pts and 16+ goals)
• or we could officially survive.

But if it’s going down to a two-team shootout, the question is: can Barnsley get two more points from their three games – Forest A, Brentford H, Derby A – than we can from our two? If they can, they’ll finish above us on goal difference. But I don’t think they’ll win all three, so if we win our two, we’ll be reet.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Peter Thompson » Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:27 pm

Has Parkinson been sacked yet ??....

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by TANGODANCER » Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:07 pm

Peter Thompson wrote:
Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:27 pm
Has Parkinson been sacked yet ??....
And that will achieve exactly what P.T.? Can we afford to buy his contract, or offer another to someone else with a couple of games left? Have our financial problems gone away and the good football fairy waved a wand to make it all okay? I'd think cheering him on would be a better option right now, not causing further upset by talk of sackings.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Peter Thompson » Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:46 pm

TANGODANCER wrote:
Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:07 pm
Peter Thompson wrote:
Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:27 pm
Has Parkinson been sacked yet ??....
And that will achieve exactly what P.T.? Can we afford to buy his contract, or offer another to someone else with a couple of games left? Have our financial problems gone away and the good football fairy waved a wand to make it all okay? I'd think cheering him on would be a better option right now, not causing further upset by talk of sackings.
Well TD if we don't & stick with PP we will go down with a whimper - there is simply no fight, no passion, no organisation, no bottle in this team and the players are certainly not playing for Parkinson - there is a complete lack of motivation - Burton are scrapping for there lives, our players appear to not give a shite and are almost beaten before they go out on the pitch.

Sack Parkinson tomorrow offer big Mick McCarthy the job for two games and if he keeps us up a longer term contract.

Cheering him & the players on has no effect whatsoever...the fans have been magnificent this last 6 games, unfortunately the same can't be said of the players, who to be honest have been bottle less shit bags !.

BTW in regards to the good football fairy, we have £6M that we didn't have in December !

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:01 pm

And yet, according to BWFC-i, the players will "Run through walls for Parky".
As I've said before... "if they're polystyrene".
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Harry Genshaw » Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:56 pm

Athertonian wrote:
Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:05 pm
Finishing in those positions are all and well providing your fans are just happy by that. Bolton fans wont settle for anything less than promotion. Parkinson has had his time and failed. The bloke still doesn't know his best eleven, and that shows every week when we see the team selection. Fail to win next week, the hounds will be restless.
Without wishing to sound like our insane pal, then those fans are idiots. If Parky could replicate what he did at Bradford with us, albeit a division higher;

Yr 1 - keep us up
Yr 2 - consolidate and
Yr 3 - be challenging for promotion

Who on here wouldn't take that?!!

Just go back 2 years. We were going down as one of the worst championship sides ever. We were on the verge of bankruptcy and administration and to most observers were likely to spend a long time in the lower divisions.

Now fast forward to today. We're back in the championship, out of the bottom three and with a chance of staying up. That's not to ignore some of the dross we've seen or some of Parkys apparent failings but 'he's had his time and he's failed'? - Nah not for me
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by HMX » Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:58 pm

Just shy of a coin flip.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:38 am

Its the nightmare scenario. Burton with a sniff. On form. Bolton, in a terrible run, full of fear....

Its only going one way this.

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