We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Harry Genshaw » Sun Apr 08, 2018 1:00 pm

^ this is my worry. Birmingham Barnsley and Reading have all picked up a bit lately. Even Sunderland have scored 4 in a game.

I can see us beating Millwall and Forest both 1-0 but at best we'd get draws at Barnsley and Burton
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:05 am

Our fundamental problem is we aren't scoring nearly enough goals. We never have this season, but in the games since Madine left we're well, well under 1 goal per game. As I kept saying the wins over Bristol City and Villa were not ones you can repeat week in week out. There were specific circumstances (BC were playing their worst spell of the season and the weather caught Villa out) that helped us sneak 1-0's. But the goal against BC was a wonder run and strike. The goal against Villa a mis-hit corner. We can try and stay in games and try to repeat that, but you need a lot to go for you. The opposition has to fail to create much and/or take their chances. And you need something to break your way at the right time. I said it even after those wins, we haven't without Madine found a way of being able to repeatedly get on the front foot and find ways of winning games. And we've tried a lot of different things.

Our best hope is Ameobi, he's the one player that can get the ball and do something. But he's inconsistent and Birmingham bottled him up the other night well. Basically I'd say if you stop Ameobi we've patently got nothing to hurt teams.

Its a real tough situation because naturally you might say play the attacking full backs in a 4 to overlap and give us the wider options as the wingers cut in. Attacking wise that improves us, but we know that Robinson especially makes us more likely to concede chances and if the other team scores....we're dead and buried.

I think Parky should consider putting Little back in, he works well with Ameobi. And playing Robinson down the left flank in place of Buckley. Robinson's pace might be the outlet we need. I know playing an extra defender in an attacking role will get Parky all sorts of flak. But we're at the point where we need to find a way to get behind teams and Buckley isn't going to do that. Robinson might just. And Little and Ameobi can work together to stretch teams the other side.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:42 pm

Harry Genshaw wrote:
Sun Apr 08, 2018 1:00 pm
^ this is my worry. Birmingham Barnsley and Reading have all picked up a bit lately. Even Sunderland have scored 4 in a game.

I can see us beating Millwall and Forest both 1-0 but at best we'd get draws at Barnsley and Burton
Reading have picked up results, and that is OBVIOUSLY the most important thing, but they have been astonishingly fortunate to do so. In three games under Paul Clement, they've had two efforts on target and gained six points from them.

At home to QPR they were outshot 27 to 5, but Ollie's idiots only got three on target; at home to Preston they were outshot 17 to 5, but again only three of their visitors' attempts were accurate. In the middle, they went to Villa and were frankly battered: 28 attempts to 4, 13 to zero on target.

Across the three games I make it a total of 14 efforts v 72, two on target v 19. You can't keep that sort of run up for long, as Birmingham found out under Cotterill, and sadly we seem to be doing of late – but I don't think we've had a run that bad. Their remaining fixtures are Fulham A, Sunderland H, Sheff Wed A, Ipswich H.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Bijou Bob » Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:30 am

Remaining fixtures as it stands this morning:

Bolton: Millwall (H), Barnsley (A), Wolves (H), Burton (A), Forest (H)

Barnsley: Ipswich (A), Bolton (H), Leeds (A), Forest (A), Brentford (H), Derby (A)

Burton: Hull (H), Derby (H), Sunderland (A), Bolton (H), Preston (A)

Brum: Bristol (A), Wolves (A), Sheff Utd (H), QPR (A), Fulham (H)

Sunderland: Norwich (H), Reading (A), Burton (H), Fulham (A), Wolves (H)

Looking at the above, Brum seem to have the worst run in by a long chalk, followed by Sunderland. Given the gap, I reckon 5 points keeps us safe. I can only see 3 draws for us out of the above though. I reckon it's going down to the last day and of us, Burton, Barnsley and Brum we have on paper, the easiest tie on the last day, particularly as I suspect Forest will have nothing to play for on the day.

Thoughts?
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:08 am

Bijou Bob wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:30 am
Remaining fixtures as it stands this morning:

Bolton: Millwall (H), Barnsley (A), Wolves (H), Burton (A), Forest (H)

Barnsley: Ipswich (A), Bolton (H), Leeds (A), Forest (A), Brentford (H), Derby (A)

Burton: Hull (H), Derby (H), Sunderland (A), Bolton (H), Preston (A)

Brum: Bristol (A), Wolves (A), Sheff Utd (H), QPR (A), Fulham (H)

Sunderland: Norwich (H), Reading (A), Burton (H), Fulham (A), Wolves (H)

Looking at the above, Brum seem to have the worst run in by a long chalk, followed by Sunderland. Given the gap, I reckon 5 points keeps us safe. I can only see 3 draws for us out of the above though. I reckon it's going down to the last day and of us, Burton, Barnsley and Brum we have on paper, the easiest tie on the last day, particularly as I suspect Forest will have nothing to play for on the day.

Thoughts?
Without predicting our results I think....

Barnsley will get two wins and a draw out of that lot...possibly even 3 wins and a draw....can see them winning tonight, at Forest and home to Brentford...

Burton will get probably 4/5 points.

Brum will get a win in one of their home games and a point at QPR possibly something at Bristol 5/6 points

Sunderland will beat Norwich and Reading or Burton - 6 points

I think we can discount Sunderland/Burton barring something miraculous. If either end up above us we're down regardless.

It leaves Barnsley on something like 44-46 points.
Birmingham on 45-46 points.

For me the target is 46 points - which will probably do it. 47 to be sure. Two wins and a draw more than likely does it. Of course it changes if Barnsley get anything tonight then beat us - the target might go higher if Brum do something unexpected.

I struggle to see us getting two wins and a draw. Really does start to look like that if we lose tonight it could be all over very quickly.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Prufrock » Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:57 am

So to be clear: on the basis of your predictions that everything is going to wrong immediately, you think things could start to go wrong quickly?

Huge, if true.

Tonight is big. Think we need 5 points out of this, Barnsley and Burton, and cannot lose to Barnsley (or else probably need more).

DSB or anyone got any idea on the away form of the bottom teams playing each other? Feels like our home form at least had been dreadful against those around. Think we're more suited to bring able to go to Barnsley and Burton who need the wins without all the emphasis being on us.

Could be wishful thinking though. Still think we'll be reet but it's a lot less easy than it was.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:21 am

Prufrock wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:57 am
So to be clear: on the basis of your predictions that everything is going to wrong immediately, you think things could start to go wrong quickly?

Huge, if true.

Tonight is big. Think we need 5 points out of this, Barnsley and Burton, and cannot lose to Barnsley (or else probably need more).

DSB or anyone got any idea on the away form of the bottom teams playing each other? Feels like our home form at least had been dreadful against those around. Think we're more suited to bring able to go to Barnsley and Burton who need the wins without all the emphasis being on us.

Could be wishful thinking though. Still think we'll be reet but it's a lot less easy than it was.
I think we'll win tonight....if we don't though I struggle to see us getting the points required from the remaining games.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Bijou Bob » Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:33 am

Personally I have to say Pru that having set out the matches above, I'm a little bit more confident than I was, given the run ins that the other teams have. The bottom line is that it's in our hands, but I have the feeling that rather than us winning a Championship place, 3 others will lose one.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:37 am

A quick word on non-simultaneous games, which can affect teams for good and bad: if you play later, you know what you have to do, but there’s more pressure on.

For instance, Birmingham play at Wolves Sunday 3pm, a full day after Barnsley-Bolton. You have to imagine that will affect the league table somewhat.

Barnsley’s game in hand (at Forest, who we also have to face) is played when everyone else has two games left.

It’s also quite possible that Sky will move more games. This Saturday they’ve got Blades-Millwall at lunchtime and Fulham-Brentford teatime, but on Sat 21st they’ve got no early Champo game, with Cardiff-Forest at the slightly ludicrous 7.45pm slot; I can imagine they might push Bolton-Wolves back to 5.30 (promotion? title?), or possibly Birmingham-Blades (drop-dodgers v play-off hopefuls?)

Sat 28th is the last date they can change KO times. Boro-Millwall is at 5.30pm but they might also fancy Burton-Bolton or Hull-Cardiff (promotion? echoes of May 2013?).

Pru - I'll check the form of the bottom six-or-so vs each other. Spoiler alert: we haven't beaten any of them away.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:48 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:37 am
A quick word on non-simultaneous games, which can affect teams for good and bad: if you play later, you know what you have to do, but there’s more pressure on.

For instance, Birmingham play at Wolves Sunday 3pm, a full day after Barnsley-Bolton. You have to imagine that will affect the league table somewhat.

Barnsley’s game in hand (at Forest, who we also have to face) is played when everyone else has two games left.

It’s also quite possible that Sky will move more games. This Saturday they’ve got Blades-Millwall at lunchtime and Fulham-Brentford teatime, but on Sat 21st they’ve got no early Champo game, with Cardiff-Forest at the slightly ludicrous 7.45pm slot; I can imagine they might push Bolton-Wolves back to 5.30 (promotion? title?), or possibly Birmingham-Blades (drop-dodgers v play-off hopefuls?)

Sat 28th is the last date they can change KO times. Boro-Millwall is at 5.30pm but they might also fancy Burton-Bolton or Hull-Cardiff (promotion? echoes of May 2013?).

Pru - I'll check the form of the bottom six-or-so vs each other. Spoiler alert: we haven't beaten any of them away.
Also worth mentioning that derby games are less predictable generally, Wolves should beat Brum but anything can happen in those games...as we saw with Sheff Utd on Saturday!

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Prufrock » Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:57 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:37 am
A quick word on non-simultaneous games, which can affect teams for good and bad: if you play later, you know what you have to do, but there’s more pressure on.

For instance, Birmingham play at Wolves Sunday 3pm, a full day after Barnsley-Bolton. You have to imagine that will affect the league table somewhat.

Barnsley’s game in hand (at Forest, who we also have to face) is played when everyone else has two games left.

It’s also quite possible that Sky will move more games. This Saturday they’ve got Blades-Millwall at lunchtime and Fulham-Brentford teatime, but on Sat 21st they’ve got no early Champo game, with Cardiff-Forest at the slightly ludicrous 7.45pm slot; I can imagine they might push Bolton-Wolves back to 5.30 (promotion? title?), or possibly Birmingham-Blades (drop-dodgers v play-off hopefuls?)

Sat 28th is the last date they can change KO times. Boro-Millwall is at 5.30pm but they might also fancy Burton-Bolton or Hull-Cardiff (promotion? echoes of May 2013?).

Pru - I'll check the form of the bottom six-or-so vs each other. Spoiler alert: we haven't beaten any of them away.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:37 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:57 am
DSB or anyone got any idea on the away form of the bottom teams playing each other? Feels like our home form at least had been dreadful against those around. Think we're more suited to bring able to go to Barnsley and Burton who need the wins without all the emphasis being on us.
Qualitatively, I agree with you. But, y'know, stats...

Here's the results of each bottom-six team, in league-table descending order from Reading to Burton, against each other.

Bottomsix.png
Bottomsix.png (119.9 KiB) Viewed 174 times
The bad news is that Barnsley are the best in this mini-league, with five wins from nine games played - five from seven if you ignore Reading, late gatecrashers to this emo party. They were also a bit unlucky to lose to Burton (last-minute winner, 20 shots to 3 with an xG of 1.5 v 0.4). The good news is that they lost to us by two clear goals, albeit again somewhat unluckily (16 shots to our 9, xG of 2.5 to our 1.5).

The other good news is that we're yet to lose away to a bottom-six rival. The question is whether not losing will be enough. Tonight might help decide that.

Team Pl W D L Pt
BARN 09 5 1 3 16
READ 09 4 3 2 15
BURT 08 4 1 3 13
BRUM 10 3 3 4 12
BOLT 08 2 4 2 10
SUND 08 1 2 5 05

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Prufrock » Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:19 pm

Cheers. Think that backs up what I was saying which is that in a grinding game between two poor teams, home "advantage" and the onus to try to be creative might be a disadvantage.

In that mini league, the away teams have 43 points from 26 games, whereas the home teams in the same 26 games only have 28 points. That's a hell of a difference.

In fact we're the only team in that mini league who don't have more points away than at home against the others (though Barnsley and Sunderland could end up with more home points).

Our away form has been shite for three years now, but part of that (relatively) this year may be because we haven't played Burton or Barnsley. We could easily have won the games away at Reading and Sunderland too.

Enough there to be hopeful we can get what we need in those two games.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by BWFC_Insane » Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:30 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:19 pm
Cheers. Think that backs up what I was saying which is that in a grinding game between two poor teams, home "advantage" and the onus to try to be creative might be a disadvantage.

In that mini league, the away teams have 43 points from 26 games, whereas the home teams in the same 26 games only have 28 points. That's a hell of a difference.

In fact we're the only team in that mini league who don't have more points away than at home against the others (though Barnsley and Sunderland could end up with more home points).

Our away form has been shite for three years now, but part of that (relatively) this year may be because we haven't played Burton or Barnsley. We could easily have won the games away at Reading and Sunderland too.

Enough there to be hopeful we can get what we need in those two games.
Think that's true. Our issue is finding a way to get pace in the side to exploit the gaps away from home.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:50 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:19 pm
Cheers. Think that backs up what I was saying which is that in a grinding game between two poor teams, home "advantage" and the onus to try to be creative might be a disadvantage.

In that mini league, the away teams have 43 points from 26 games, whereas the home teams in the same 26 games only have 28 points. That's a hell of a difference.

In fact we're the only team in that mini league who don't have more points away than at home against the others (though Barnsley and Sunderland could end up with more home points).

Our away form has been shite for three years now, but part of that (relatively) this year may be because we haven't played Burton or Barnsley. We could easily have won the games away at Reading and Sunderland too.

Enough there to be hopeful we can get what we need in those two games.
Not many teams would have sat as deep as Burton did at our place. And at Barnsley. Worked twice for them but equally, it must have worked against them at home, where they've won 11 points – the same number we've collected away, albeit we've played a game more (away to their home).

There are only three teams in this division who've got more points away than at home: Burton (11v21), Sunderland (12v20) and Preston (28v32). For the record, we're 28v11 – only QPR (35v15) have a higher home-biased PPG differential – and Millwall are 40v25: only three teams have more home points than Millwall, 10 teams have more away points.

Barnsley are 20v17, Reading 22v20, Birmingham 27v13.

http://www.soccerstats.com/homeaway.asp?league=england2

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Bijou Bob » Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:54 pm

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/ ... y-14506489

The Birmingham press reckon a super computer has predicted they will get relegated and we survive on 43 points. That's alright then!
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Prufrock » Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:58 pm

Yeah, being shit is generally a bad thing away from home. A team like Derby with competent footballers invited on to the front foot in a familiar environment are going to cause is harm.

Barnsley, in a huge game, onus on them to attack, playing against a team who are willing to let them come onto them more than most. Think there's a decent chance they will struggle at home against us in the same way we did against Burton or Brum.

Oddly, I think it suits us more for Burton to have something to play for than not when we play them, for the same reasons.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Apr 10, 2018 5:24 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:58 pm
Oddly, I think it suits us more for Burton to have something to play for than not when we play them, for the same reasons.
It's possible, given how KWAZEE the season has been.

However, while we're on the subject, I'm never fully sold on the idea that teams with nothing to play for – having been relegated – suddenly throw off the shackles and play brilliantly. If you're down there, it's generally because you're a bit plap; having nothing to fight for can only make you less likely to do the hard stuff, the constant doggies, the throwing yourself in the path of the ball.

Not that that's what you're saying, but I just thought I'd mention it.

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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Tue Apr 10, 2018 5:42 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 5:24 pm
Prufrock wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:58 pm
Oddly, I think it suits us more for Burton to have something to play for than not when we play them, for the same reasons.
It's possible, given how KWAZEE the season has been.

However, while we're on the subject, I'm never fully sold on the idea that teams with nothing to play for – having been relegated – suddenly throw off the shackles and play brilliantly. If you're down there, it's generally because you're a bit plap; having nothing to fight for can only make you less likely to do the hard stuff, the constant doggies, the throwing yourself in the path of the ball.

Not that that's what you're saying, but I just thought I'd mention it.
...and on a similar theme, I think it's silly to presume that Forest will just 'turn up with nothing to play for on the day'.
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Re: We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

Post by Harry Genshaw » Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:43 pm

Despite their upturn in form I don't see Barnsley winning any of their away games. If we can avoid defeat at theirs and get something tonight, I think we'll be safe
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