The 'Big Four'

[blurred]

Yawn, I know. But a thread on RAWK about this got me thinking - this year has seen great leaps forward from the likes of Aston Villa, Everton are on the brink of their biggest points haul in 15 years, Man City flew out of the blocks and have had a decent season, Pompey have had a fair go and are chasing down Europe, but yet again the 'Big Four' have got it all sewn up.

Who are going to be the side to break this up, and what will it require? A boardroom implosion at Anfield? Roman taking his ball and going home? Thaksin Shinawatra spunking huge amounts of cash? Ramos working his magic?

What's needed to end this run of the same sides at the top of the league, and who can you see doing it (and when)?

[boltonboris]

The current top 3, will be there for the foreseeable future, Liverpool will be only team I can't see being 'certs' although they still probably will be. Serious contenders will be Villa and Tottenham (in a couple of years) with everton having a go every other season.

It's a financial issue, is the top four whoever were there for the lucrative turn at the Champs League 5 years ago got the head start that will set them up for some time

[David Lee's Hair]

Aren't Everton already there? They have finished in the top 4 in the last 3 seasons, and are regularly challenging. However, other than the Toffess, for me out of the teams up there at present Villa.

A few reasons.....

1) Some really good young kids coming through.
2) A manager who is prudent with the money, not just wanking it all over someone because he can.
3) A damn good manager at that.
4) A Billionaire owner.
5) pt 4) but leave the football side of it to the football men, aznd allow them to build not expecting a one season wonder appointment

I think if they keep O'Neill they'll be the team knocking on the door along with Everton in the next few years.

Saying that, it'd still need one of the big 4 to coompletely screw up. Say Roman spitting his dummy and going, Rafa rotating for a whole season, or Manure appointing Bryan Robson when Fergie goes.

[blurred]

Aren't Everton already there? They have finished in the top 4 in the last 3 seasons, and are regularly challenging. However, other than the Toffess, for me out of the teams up there at present Villa

Everton have finished in the top four once in recent history - 2004/05 when we won in Istanbul and finished 5th. They subsequently didn't get through the Champions League qualifiers in 05/06.

[David Lee's Hair]

Everton have finished in the top four once in recent history - 2004/05 when we won in Istanbul and finished 5th. They subsequently didn't get through the Champions League qualifiers in 05/06.

Exactly, so they've broken the top four monopoly once.

If you look at there seasonal results bar the season after they finished 4th (i think they finished about 12th or something) they've consistenly finished top 7.

Spuds will be interesting to see dependant on if Ramos goes the Spanish route a la Benitez. With the exception of Torres, if he brings in a Spanish striker to replace Berbatov, they'll be screwed as they cannot hack it in the PL. But it'll be interesting as they fleece money like there is no tomorrow every summer.

But as I say it's Villa for me

[blurred]

Everton have finished in the top four once in recent history - 2004/05 when we won in Istanbul and finished 5th. They subsequently didn't get through the Champions League qualifiers in 05/06.

Exactly, so they've broken the top four monopoly once.

Apologies, I read your 'they've finished top 4 in the last 3 seasons' as if it meant 'in each of the last 3 seasons' rather than 'once'.

[Hoboh]

Everton have finished in the top four once in recent history - 2004/05 when we won in Istanbul and finished 5th. They subsequently didn't get through the Champions League qualifiers in 05/06.

Exactly, so they've broken the top four monopoly once.

Apologies, I read your 'they've finished top 4 in the last 3 seasons' as if it meant 'in each of the last 3 seasons' rather than 'once'.

Rose tints eh!

[TANGODANCER]

Everton, Villa, Portsmouth, Blackburn, City, Boro and possibly Newcastle are all candidates for making top four next season if the keep up current form.

[Bruce Rioja]

Yawn, I know. But a thread on RAWK about this got me thinking - this year has seen great leaps forward from the likes of Aston Villa, Everton are on the brink of their biggest points haul in 15 years, Man City flew out of the blocks and have had a decent season, Pompey have had a fair go and are chasing down Europe, but yet again the 'Big Four' have got it all sewn up.

Go and rinse your mouth out with soap. No mention of Tottingham? They won the Rola Cola Trophy don't you know? They are massive, and by all accounts next year will be their year (again).

[Athers]

You better hope not since you're taking out loans to buy players.

I think Spurs are most likely in terms of next season, they have a good manager and they'll be a new team once they sort out a new goalkeeper and buy a replacement for King to partner Woodgate. Then they've got Bale and Hutton for full backs who are good little players. Add in a left winger and a central midfielder they'll have a strong 16 I think, assuming they keep Berbatov. They've never had a problem finding money and Ramos can probably steer Commoli into the right purchases more than Jol did.

Everton, Villa, Newcastle, City will improve the strength of the league but not have enough I think. Expect another low points season down the bottom though with these teams regularly picking up 6 from the strugglers.

[David Lee's Hair]

Apologies, I read your 'they've finished top 4 in the last 3 seasons' as if it meant 'in each of the last 3 seasons' rather than 'once'.

I like a drink, but not been that drunk for the last 4 years solid

[boltonboris]

Incidentally, the season Everton finished 4th, we finished with the same points total as Liverpool, with only goal difference seperating us (obviosuly)

[warthog]

The closest have been Everton over the past few seasons, including one top four finish. But in 8 matches against the big four this season they've lost 7 and drawn 1. The gap in class is still there.

It's too early to say for Portsmouth and City. One good season doesn't prove anything and if Shinawatra starts pissing about hiring and firing managers, City will continue to underachieve. Spurs, for all their attacking prowess are still soft-centered.

So I'd go for Villa. They've made steady progress over a couple of seasons and have a good manager. They've gradually improved their squad and have an owner who'll put money in without being extravagant.

That said, it's still a big ask and I wouldn't put money on anyone breaking into the top four next season. If there's a change, it may happen because of less obvious things. The ability to get credit could become difficult for even the biggest clubs and the Andy Webster ruling will have an effect on the value of players contracts. Money, which is at the root of the big 4 dominance, may yet be their downfall.

[FD]

Agree with everyone else that Everton have been the closest but personally I don't think that monopoly will be broken for a long long time (if ever). Can't see anyone consistently challenging for 4th spot let alone 2nd or 3rd.

The teams that are there have got SHITLOADS of money behind them or a history of having great teams or long standing managers who've had good players for a long time etc or all three.

Just look at the absolutely obscene wages clubs like Man Utd and Chelsea are offering. As long as that is allowed the best players will always go to them and that top 4 will never change.

[Lord Kangana]

Yawn, I know. But a thread on RAWK about this got me thinking - this year has seen great leaps forward from the likes of Aston Villa, Everton are on the brink of their biggest points haul in 15 years, Man City flew out of the blocks and have had a decent season, Pompey have had a fair go and are chasing down Europe, but yet again the 'Big Four' have got it all sewn up.

Go and rinse your mouth out with soap. No mention of Tottingham? They won the Rola Cola Trophy don't you know? They are massive, and by all accounts next year will be their year (again).

Aye, they should be renamed Tommorrow Hotspurs with the amount of false dawns the media have whipped up over the last decade or so.

At what point is it accepted that 'promising' actually means 'still mediocre at the moment'?

[Verbal]

Alot of it relies on squad depth, I reckon. Alot of times a club will be up in the top four comfortably come Christmas, yet by Spring the top four monopoly is still strong. Just goes to show it is a marathon not a race. The fact that the top four can afford to 'rotate' shows how capable they are of putting out top class sides no mtter who is sidelined (unless some kind of catastrophe).

Personally, I think the big four could be around for a long time to come, due to the money involved. It's a bit of a vicious cycle: Top four finish -> ECL -> more money -> higher expenditure capability -> squad improvement -> top four finish. If a club can sustain that cycle they can sustain their place at the top, making it harder and harder each year for others to enter.

Teams to break the top four? Both villa and everton have stable set ups, good youth systems and aren't prone to spending silly money on nobody. If any I'd plump for those two - other teams owned by billionaires (Citeh, Toon) are too risky me thinks, whereas other teams like Spuds and Pompey are too inconsistent.

but to be honest, I wouldn't bank on it happening for a long time.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Personally, I think the big four could be around for a long time to come, due to the money involved. It's a bit of a vicious cycle: Top four finish -> ECL -> more money -> higher expenditure capability -> squad improvement -> top four finish.

Precisely and pertinently put, pal. Which is why it's more a question of one of the top four leaving the party than someone gatecrashing it, which might be why our blurry friend has asked the question.

See, had Rafa not had the money to play such a good 'shadow squad' at Fulham - I've no idea how much that matchday 16 cost but I'd reckon it's £30m or £40m - they may well have lost, increasing the chances of Everton or someone catching them. Most folk probably couldn't name more than a dozen Everton players in total, so their first XI will inevitably tire, especially if (being a top-six side) they're still chasing cups at home and abroad.

Warthog, the transition to actually beating these uber-squads takes some time. I can't remember who it is now but I'm fairly sure one side - Liverpool? Arsenal? - are miles behind in a theoretical mini-league based on games between the top four over recent seasons. This tends to be fairly faithfully extrapolated onto the league table.

[Bruce Rioja]

Alot of it relies on squad depth, I reckon.

To a point I'd say, Verbal, but remember Barry Fry's Birmingham? If you look, Everton have an outfield squad of only 21 players, but that squad is made up of players that are ready at the drop of a hat to play well in the first team. Can you imagine Leighton Baines being left on the bench at our place? For me David Moyles is a far superior manager to those managing top four clubs and in that I include old Beetroot whose mistakes are for some reason allowed to blow over as though they never happened. The way that I see it as things stand is that if anyone is going to break the monopoly then it will be Everton IF Kenwright and his mates are prepared to put a few more Quid in.

PS. Questions to which I still don't know the answer: What the feck is an 'Impresario'?

[Worthy4England]

I think the question needs asking the other way around to be honest. Is there still a "big four" or is it actually a "big three" or maybe two.

Since the Prem began,

Arsenal have been in the top 4, 12 out of 15 seasons.
Utd have been in the top 4 every season
Chelsea have been in the top 4 for 7 of the 15 seasons and
Liverpool have been in the top 4 for 10 of the 15 seasons

During that time,

Chelsea have finished nearer the winners than the 5th placed team on points on five occasions (including the two they won)
Arsenal have finished nearer the winners than the 5th placed team on points on six occasions (including the three they won)
Liverpool have managed to finish nearer the winners than the 5th placed team on points twice (nothing in brackets)

At best it's a big three - anyone else is just deluding themselves.

[Bruce Rioja]

Teams to break the top four? Both villa and everton have stable set ups, good youth systems and aren't prone to spending silly money on nobody. If any I'd plump for those two - other teams owned by billionaires (Citeh, Toon) are too risky me thinks.

Randolph Lerner?