The 'Big Four'

TANGODANCER · Post by **TANGODANCER** » Mon Apr 21, 2008 7:37 pm

Slight diversion but still on the topic of money and football:

Adrian Chiles just did a programme on th ridiculous amount of money earned by footballers. Bob Wilson was on it and told how he was on thirty quid a week, four pounds extra as a win bonus, two pounds for a draw and nowt for losing. Shows how absolutely obscene it's all gone. It's all about the lucre and sport is a very secondary consideration. Then again, we all know that anyway.

Back to the big four.

warthog · Post by **warthog** » Mon Apr 21, 2008 7:52 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:Warthog, the transition to actually beating these uber-squads takes some time. I can't remember who it is now but I'm fairly sure one side - Liverpool? Arsenal? - are miles behind in a theoretical mini-league based on games between the top four over recent seasons. This tends to be fairly faithfully extrapolated onto the league table.

Indeed, but one point out of 24 shows that Everton aren't near starting that transition. They've conceded four at home against Man U and Arsenal. Rafa has a less than convincing record against his fellow biggies.

H. Pedersen · Post by **H. Pedersen** » Mon Apr 21, 2008 8:11 pm

I don't think it will ever happen. As soon as someone starts to play well in any team outside the big four they are immediately poached. In order for Villa to break through the glass ceiling, O'Neill would have to convince the likes of Young, Agbonlahor, and Barry to turn down huge wages and the promise of the Champions League. Not an easy task, given that lots of players these days would rather ride the pine and cash fat checks than battle every week for a "lesser club."

Besides, if any other team happens to break into the top four, I'm sure UEFA will get the missing big club in the Champions League through the back door.

boltonboris · Post by **boltonboris** » Mon Apr 21, 2008 8:19 pm

H. Pedersen wrote:I don't think it will ever happen. As soon as someone starts to play well in any team outside the big four they are immediately poached. In order for Villa to break through the glass ceiling, O'Neill would have to convince the likes of Young, Agbonlahor, and Barry to turn down huge wages and the promise of the Champions League. Not an easy task, given that lots of players these days would rather ride the pine and cash fat checks than battle every week for a "lesser club."

Besides, if any other team happens to break into the top four, I'm sure UEFA will get the missing big club in the Champions League through the back door.

The only way it'd happen is if that team won the Champions League ala Liverpool - In that case I reckon they deserve to defend their crown (Not for the sake of another side though, like Real Madrid and Sociedad(?))

Verbal · Post by **Verbal** » Mon Apr 21, 2008 8:40 pm

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Verbal wrote:Teams to break the top four? Both villa and everton have stable set ups, good youth systems and aren't prone to spending silly money on nobody. If any I'd plump for those two - other teams owned by billionaires (Citeh, Toon) are too risky me thinks.
Randolph Lerner?

Fair point and I must admit I completely forgot about him. But compare his presence in the public eye to Shinawatra/Ashley and it gives off the impression Villa are less likely to implode than the other two.

Also, not old enough to remember Barry Fry @ Birmingham

warthog · Post by **warthog** » Mon Apr 21, 2008 8:42 pm

Verbal wrote:
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Verbal wrote:Teams to break the top four? Both villa and everton have stable set ups, good youth systems and aren't prone to spending silly money on nobody. If any I'd plump for those two - other teams owned by billionaires (Citeh, Toon) are too risky me thinks.
Randolph Lerner?
Fair point and I must admit I completely forgot about him. But compare his presence in the public eye to Shinawatra/Ashley and it gives off the impression Villa are less likely to implode than the other two.

Also, not old enough to remember Barry Fry @ Birmingham

Villa were also a much better proposition to buy in that they weren't burdened with shed loads of debt.

blurred · Post by **blurred** » Mon Apr 21, 2008 9:45 pm

Worthy4England wrote:I think the question needs asking the other way around to be honest. Is there still a "big four" or is it actually a "big three" or maybe two.

Since the Prem began,

Arsenal have been in the top 4, 12 out of 15 seasons.
Utd have been in the top 4 every season
Chelsea have been in the top 4 for 7 of the 15 seasons and
Liverpool have been in the top 4 for 10 of the 15 seasons

During that time,

Chelsea have finished nearer the winners than the 5th placed team on points on five occasions (including the two they won)
Arsenal have finished nearer the winners than the 5th placed team on points on six occasions (including the three they won)
Liverpool have managed to finish nearer the winners than the 5th placed team on points twice (nothing in brackets)

At best it's a big three - anyone else is just deluding themselves.

Well this is another point, actually - Rafa has effectively turned a big two/three into a big three/four - the fact that he's qualified for the CL every year is something that we fans now take for granted, but it wasn't a guaranteed thing under Houllier or Evans (the latter probably because it was 2/3 sides in his day and not the current 4). OK, he had his touch of fortune in 04/05 and all that shenanigans, but still.

Tombwfc · Post by **Tombwfc** » Mon Apr 21, 2008 10:25 pm

Out of interest, was Rafa in charge for the two seasons when Liverpool finished closer to the title winners than the 5th placed team?

blurred · Post by **blurred** » Mon Apr 21, 2008 10:27 pm

Tombwfc wrote:Out of interest, was Rafa in charge for the two seasons when Liverpool finished closer to the title winners than the 5th placed team?

Houllier will have been one of them, I think Rafa last year might've been closer to the title than fifth? I know we've been third the last two years, but one was a close-ish one, one was further away. My gut would say Houllier 1, Benitez 1.

Worthy4England · Post by **Worthy4England** » Tue Apr 22, 2008 12:34 am

blurred wrote:
Worthy4England wrote:I think the question needs asking the other way around to be honest. Is there still a "big four" or is it actually a "big three" or maybe two.

Since the Prem began,

Arsenal have been in the top 4, 12 out of 15 seasons.
Utd have been in the top 4 every season
Chelsea have been in the top 4 for 7 of the 15 seasons and
Liverpool have been in the top 4 for 10 of the 15 seasons

During that time,

Chelsea have finished nearer the winners than the 5th placed team on points on five occasions (including the two they won)
Arsenal have finished nearer the winners than the 5th placed team on points on six occasions (including the three they won)
Liverpool have managed to finish nearer the winners than the 5th placed team on points twice (nothing in brackets)

At best it's a big three - anyone else is just deluding themselves.
Well this is another point, actually - Rafa has effectively turned a big two/three into a big three/four - the fact that he's qualified for the CL every year is something that we fans now take for granted, but it wasn't a guaranteed thing under Houllier or Evans (the latter probably because it was 2/3 sides in his day and not the current 4). OK, he had his touch of fortune in 04/05 and all that shenanigans, but still.

Not convinced

I think there's a big two, given that most of Chelsea's failures were at the start of the Prem as opposed to latterly when they've just bought some decent league positions. United have been there since the Prem started. In Prem terms, Arsenal have had 5 seasons only where they've finished nearer the top than the 5th placed team and Liverpool haven't managed that.

If we didn't mock the Jocks for the SPL so much, I think I'd be convinced there was a big two with Arsenal and Liverpool leading the chasing pack...as more often than not, they finish nearer 5th than 1st.

CrazyHorse · Post by **CrazyHorse** » Tue Apr 22, 2008 1:28 pm

Just a random entry to this topic - this is the final table for the 2005 season.

Code: Select all

                PLD        PTS
1        Chelsea           38        95
2        Arsenal           38        83
3        Man Utd           38        77
4        Everton           38        61
5        Liverp'l          38        58
6        Bolton            38        58
7        Middlesb          38        55
8        Man City          38        52
9        Spurs             38        52
10       Villa             38        47
11       Charlton          38        46
12       Birm'ham          38        45
13       Fulham            38        44
14       Newcastle         38        44
15       Blackburn         38        42
16       Portsm'th         38        39
17       WBA               38        34
18       Palace            38        33
19       Norwich           38        33
20       South'ton         38        32

Look how far behind Chelsea Man U are.
And also Liverpool (in 5th) are closer in points to Southampton than Chelsea. Certainly using 2005 as a yardstick you couldn't say there were four big clubs, only three.

Personally I only think that there are two big clubs anyway; Chelsea aren't big they're just rich - if Abramovich had decided to buy Norwich instead and threw as much money at them then they'd have won the league twice too.

Oba · Post by **Oba** » Tue Apr 22, 2008 5:13 pm

Verbal wrote:
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Verbal wrote:Teams to break the top four? Both villa and everton have stable set ups, good youth systems and aren't prone to spending silly money on nobody. If any I'd plump for those two - other teams owned by billionaires (Citeh, Toon) are too risky me thinks.
Randolph Lerner?
Fair point and I must admit I completely forgot about him. But compare his presence in the public eye to Shinawatra/Ashley and it gives off the impression Villa are less likely to implode than the other two.

Also, not old enough to remember Barry Fry @ Birmingham

What sort of impression does Ashley give in the public eye that we could implode?

Athers · Post by **Athers** » Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:24 pm

His gambling problem I imagine, though he's probably got it covered with his £1bn in the bank.

Bruce Rioja · Post by **Bruce Rioja** » Tue Apr 22, 2008 7:14 pm

Verbal wrote:
Fair point and I must admit I completely forgot about him. But compare his presence in the public eye to Shinawatra/Ashley and it gives off the impression Villa are less likely to implode than the other two.

Yeah, he is truly the exception. I threw him in for devilment to be honest. Clearly Lerner's wise enough to let his incumbent expert look after footie matters whereas, and let me be perfectly honest here, the voyeurism of watching some shirt-selling cock like Shinawatra start telling Sven where he should be strengthening his team is bloody fantastic.

Verbal wrote:Also, not old enough to remember Barry Fry @ Birmingham

And I'm not your friend!

TANGODANCER · Post by **TANGODANCER** » Tue Apr 22, 2008 7:40 pm

Bruce Rioja wrote: [
Yeah, he is truly the exception. I threw him in for devilment to be honest. Clearly Lerner's wise enough to let his incumbent expert look after footie matters whereas, and let me be perfectly honest here, the voyeurism of watching some shirt-selling cock like Shinawatra start telling Sven where he should be strengthening his team is bloody fantastic.

Aye, a photo in the Daily Star wearing a club scarf and he thinks he's the new Malcolm Allison. Time was when the money men kept low profiles and let the managers do their jobs. Now, it's "I'm a celebrity, get me in there".

What next, a book; "I did it My Way" ?

Hee hee, just seen one of the Scouse Cowboys singing along to "You'll Never Sqwawk Alone". What next?

Oba · Post by **Oba** » Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:08 pm

Athers wrote:His gambling problem I imagine, though he's probably got it covered with his £1bn in the bank.

It's hardly a gambling problem, he's got an open bet that has just continuously ran so when the stock market went down he lost money but because it's gone up after the HSBC rumour he's made about £30 million of it back.

Not like he's in Willy Hill's every day.

As for the top four, it'll be a hard thing to break but it can be done, you won't need to be better than the big four either you just have to pick up a lot of points against the rest of the teams, Spurs just lost out to Arsenal when they had the whole food poisoning thing and I don't think they beat any of the top 4 that season (might be wrong)

It'll be hard getting there but it'll be even harder staying there.

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