Bouncing back in Bristle? You must be off your Bristol Cities. Bristol City v Bolton 26/9/2017

[BWFC_Insane]

On this occasion are we allowed to shoot the messenger? *

* The other fella, not DSB

If you mean the Carlton Cole rumour, it seems to have started in the Star, so I wouldn't worry just yet. Also seems to say Palace are interested (Benteke's out for 6wks) but he'd prefer to play in the Championship, which would be decidedly odd, although others say it's because he wants a longer deal. Which wouldn't exactly fit his recent habits: he lasted eight months of his two-year Celtic deal, a couple of months at Sacramento Republic in the US second tier, and just over four months of a 10-month contract with an Indonesian club. His last goal was in October 2014. And yet there's part of me thinking that maybe...

<sigh>

He's a lazier version of Madine. Far less workrate, slightly better touch and finishing, far worse in the air...

Overall it would be a total waste of resources IMHO.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

On this occasion are we allowed to shoot the messenger? *

* The other fella, not DSB

If you mean the Carlton Cole rumour, it seems to have started in the Star, so I wouldn't worry just yet. Also seems to say Palace are interested (Benteke's out for 6wks) but he'd prefer to play in the Championship, which would be decidedly odd, although others say it's because he wants a longer deal. Which wouldn't exactly fit his recent habits: he lasted eight months of his two-year Celtic deal, a couple of months at Sacramento Republic in the US second tier, and just over four months of a 10-month contract with an Indonesian club. His last goal was in October 2014. And yet there's part of me thinking that maybe...

<sigh>

He's a lazier version of Madine. Far less workrate, slightly better touch and finishing, far worse in the air...

Overall it would be a total waste of resources IMHO.

Yeah, I can certainly see your point. It's a shame about CFC, as the West Ham fans christened him - Carlton F**kin' Cole. As a lad at Chelsea he had all the attributes - pace, power, height, finishing - but he never kicked on. I guess any hope I have (in my heart rather than my head) is a tripartite mixture of those memories of his early potential, the need for a Madine alternative and sheer friggin' desperation.

Iles tweeted Madine's heatmap from last night. I mean it's not the Machine's fault, but if that's your target man you're miles away from goal(s).

DKtx0SzW4AArUuK.jpg (20.37 KiB) Viewed 5398 times

One other thing - that first Brizzle goal: not sure why Little feels the need to shuttle forward to the man in possession when he's clearly nearer to Pratley. Little's admirable but wrong-headed shuttle creates the gap from which they cross for the goal; he needs that coaching out of him, leave it to the midfielders. Second goal's a freak, hard to blame anyone. I do genuinely think we might be in with a chance of a clean sheet or defending a lead, the bigger problem is how we get the bloody lead to start with.

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

On this occasion are we allowed to shoot the messenger? *

* The other fella, not DSB

If you mean the Carlton Cole rumour, it seems to have started in the Star, so I wouldn't worry just yet. Also seems to say Palace are interested (Benteke's out for 6wks) but he'd prefer to play in the Championship, which would be decidedly odd, although others say it's because he wants a longer deal. Which wouldn't exactly fit his recent habits: he lasted eight months of his two-year Celtic deal, a couple of months at Sacramento Republic in the US second tier, and just over four months of a 10-month contract with an Indonesian club. His last goal was in October 2014. And yet there's part of me thinking that maybe...

<sigh>

I did. Think on balance I'd rather just stick with Madine

[Bruce Rioja]

He's a lazier version of Madine. Far less workrate,
DSB's heat map.

You're having a laugh, right? I give off more of a heat map than that just by nipping for a half time piss.

[Tombwfc]

Apart from being a "big lad" what does Madine really offer ?
I'd love to see his shots/headers to goal ratio - we'd be able to sue under the trades description act.

I think he's done ok this season, but certainly not enough to where he'd be the first name on the teamsheet. Playing with big lumps up front is hardly making us hard to beat. Next time we go a goal down I'd like to see us try and get the best out of ALF/AA rather than just send Wilbraham lumbering upfront.

[Peter Thompson]

Apart from being a "big lad" what does Madine really offer ?
I'd love to see his shots/headers to goal ratio - we'd be able to sue under the trades description act.

I think he's done ok this season, but certainly not enough to where he'd be the first name on the teamsheet. Playing with big lumps up front is hardly making us hard to beat. Next time we go a goal down I'd like to see us try and get the best out of ALF/AA rather than just send Wilbraham lumbering upfront.

Agree with this Tom....it could even become Parkinson's achilles heel not having a plan B to play a different system or different style without Madine.

He is playing ok as an individual, but he's just not a natural goal scorer & needs maybe 4 or 5 chances to score a goal and with the lack of decent chances we create (probably around 2 or 3 a game at best) its asking a lot of Madine to score enough goals. The defenders in this league (apart from our own) are better than in League 1 and it's meat & drink to them when our default play is launching it long to Madine regardless of whereabouts on the pitch he is....that heat map that DSB has produced sums up why its not working, why he's not scoring and a big reason as to why we don't score goals....

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Apart from being a "big lad" what does Madine really offer ?
I'd love to see his shots/headers to goal ratio - we'd be able to sue under the trades description act.

It's not the question you asked, but according to WhoScored, he averages the most shots on target per game of any Championship player (6+ games) with 1.5 per game. Indeed, nobody in the division has had more attempts on target this season than his 15.

All told he averages 2.9 attempts per game, and only a few forwards manage more – Cardiff's Kenneth Zohore is top with 3.6, Brentford's Ollie Watkins and Norwich's Nelson Oliveira 3.3, Hull's Kamil Grosicki 3.1, Millwall's Jed Wallace 3.

But obviously, attempts don't always mean goals. He's had 29 attempts all told - 15 on-target, 10 off-target, 4 blocked – and scored two goals, so he's averaging a goal every 14.5 attempts. Zohore's 3 goals from 36 shots gives him an average of 12 shots per goal, Watkins' 3 from 33 is 11 per goal, Oliveira's 4 from 26 makes an impressive 6.5, Grosicki's 2 from 28 = 14, Wallace's 3 from 30 = 10. Worth bearing in mind that wingers Watkins, Grosicki and Wallace shoot from distance a lot.

As for Gaz, he's averaging more aerial duels won (ie successful "head-offs" vs defenders) per game (7.7) than all Championship forwards bar Ipswich's Joe Garner (7.9) and Sunderland's James Vaughan (7.8 ). He also loses 7.4 headers per game, but it's unusual for somebody to win more than half: Garner loses 11 per game, Vaughan 8.7, while the other leading target men all lose more than they win: Millwall's Steve Morison 7.1 v 8, Preston's Jordan Hugill 5.3 v 6.1, Zohore 3.8 v 5.2. (Interestingly, the division's highest average is Birmingham midfielder Cheikh Ndoye with 8.9 headers won per game. #unit)

I think he's done ok this season, but certainly not enough to where he'd be the first name on the teamsheet. Playing with big lumps up front is hardly making us hard to beat. Next time we go a goal down I'd like to see us try and get the best out of ALF/AA rather than just send Wilbraham lumbering upfront.

It's an interesting point. Looking at the numbers above, I think we'd struggle to get a more effective target man than Madine, who's doing a decent job statistically in very bad circumstances - we usually have minority possession, and it's obvious to anyone who watches a game that we've been having problems getting men up around Madine. But playing with a target man is almost always a low-percentage game anyway - around half the time, at least, you're simply turning over possession. In the third tier we could do that and wait till the gawps gave us the ball back. In this division we're just inviting better teams back onto us all the time. The trouble is, do we have the nous and ability to play any other way?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Apart from being a "big lad" what does Madine really offer ?
I'd love to see his shots/headers to goal ratio - we'd be able to sue under the trades description act.

I think he's done ok this season, but certainly not enough to where he'd be the first name on the teamsheet. Playing with big lumps up front is hardly making us hard to beat. Next time we go a goal down I'd like to see us try and get the best out of ALF/AA rather than just send Wilbraham lumbering upfront.

Agree with this Tom....it could even become Parkinson's achilles heel not having a plan B to play a different system or different style without Madine.

He is playing ok as an individual, but he's just not a natural goal scorer & needs maybe 4 or 5 chances to score a goal and with the lack of decent chances we create (probably around 2 or 3 a game at best) its asking a lot of Madine to score enough goals. The defenders in this league (apart from our own) are better than in League 1 and it's meat & drink to them when our default play is launching it long to Madine regardless of whereabouts on the pitch he is....that heat map that DSB has produced sums up why its not working, why he's not scoring and a big reason as to why we don't score goals....

Yep, that seems to me a fair and balanced view. If Madine were capable of being a superb target man *and* snaffle every second half-chance he'd have gone ages ago. As it is, we get the target man but we *have* to get players up around him.

As for Parky's achilles heel: It's not a new suggestion, one that's been levelled before (especially during the run-in when Gaz was injured), but it seems to me to be a reasonable worry. I can't agree with anyone who says he can't play different systems - in the last 12 months we've played 4-4-2, 4-2-3-1, a 4-4-2 diamond midfield, 3-5-2 and 3-4-3 – but in terms of different styles he hasn't proven he can prosper without Madine. And what a weird concept that is, to be relying upon Gary Madine. As I say: can we do it any other way, with this squad and (dare I say it) manager?

[Peter Thompson]

With regards to your Madine stats - they are interesting, but it doesn't necessarily tell the full story though does it ?

With regards to his heading / aerial duels won - should his effectiveness not be gauged on where these headers actually go to, how many go to a white shirt as opposed to ballooning up in the air, out of play or straight to the opposition (probably because there are no other Bolton players within 30 yards of him)

Same with the attempts at goal and shots on target, he's normally our only player within 30 yards of the opposition keeper so I would expect his attempts to be individually high as its rare that any other Bolton players shoot at goal or even get in the opposition box, so we don't exactly share it about as much as most other teams do - and again these attempts on goal & shots on target would count statistically even though they may weakly bobble through to the keeper or go 20 yards over the bar.

[BWFC_Insane]

Anyone who has watched us this season and suggest Adam Armstrong is the answer...either hasn't watched us...or is absolutely off their tits on something.

I can see why Barnsley stuck him out wide. No way will he ever be a centre forward at a high level. His pace and direct running is his only attribute and he doesn't use that nearly enough. He's had some decent balls down the channels at times too and wasted them. Also he does not work, nearly hard enough.

ALF - someone has to show how he fits in to any team we're likely to play. Brentford had a small lad up front, but he held the ball up a bazillion times better than ALF does, had more pace, made a real nuisance of himself and was a focal point for the team. ALF is a box player. To play him you need a team good enough to play 2 up front. The only way we can do that realistically with our midfield is 3 at the back. Which isn't working.

[bristol_Wanderer3]

To be fair Madine has improved a lot since the end of last season. It might be down to Parky, or being free of lingering injuries, or feeling more settled, or feeling he has the confidence of the management and the club, or a combination of some or all of those, but he is doing things this season I didn't think he was capable of. Last night he did a really skillful flick that totally bamboozled their centre half who ended up bringing him down. He has on numerous occasions this season took a long ball on his chest and swiveled in one movement to hit a powerful long range volley that has either had to be saved or gone narrowly wide. If you add the fact that he is a big strong nuisance, who doesn't suffer many long term injuries and does his part defensively and brings others into the game, who might end up with 12ish goals from 40ish games played in our team, he is at the very least a mid Championship level target man. In the same category as maybe Jukewicz Brum), Murphy (Forest), Martin (Derby), Hugill (Preston), Morrison/Gregory (Millwall).

The problem we have is that when you have someone like Madine up front, you need the attacking midfielders and wingers around him to contribute in goals, assists and chances created. Clough and Vela in particular did that last season. This season, no one is doing it, nor looks like doing it. That is where we need to find an improvement. Hopefully it will be helped when Ameobi and Vela are fully up and running, but we will probably need another one or two of our attackers to prove themselves or we will need further additions.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

With regards to your Madine stats - they are interesting, but it doesn't necessarily tell the full story though does it ?

With regards to his heading / aerial duels won - should his effectiveness not be gauged on where these headers actually go to, how many go to a white shirt as opposed to ballooning up in the air, out of play or straight to the opposition (probably because there are no other Bolton players within 30 yards of him)

Same with the attempts at goal and shots on target, he's normally our only player within 30 yards of the opposition keeper so I would expect his attempts to be individually high as its rare that any other Bolton players shoot at goal or even get in the opposition box, so we don't exactly share it about as much as most other teams do - and again these attempts on goal & shots on target would count statistically even though they may weakly bobble through to the keeper or go 20 yards over the bar.

Well, yes, but that's statistics for you, they tend to be quantitative rather than qualitative; as soon as you start "marking" attempts on some imposed value-judgement scale you're at the mercy of the adjudicator. Deciding what's a good shot or a bad shot is a lot more arguable than what's on target or off.

It's telling that he wins more headers than he loses, and even more telling that not many other strikers do. How many of them find a colleague may depend on how close the team-mates are; from empirical observation rather than measured distances, I would agree that your statement "there are no other Bolton players within 30 yards of him" is correct far too often for comfort or success.

On the last paragraph: again, yep. Bolton's total of 96 attempts on goal is the division's second-lowest (Burton are miles back on 70) so Madine's 29 efforts make up 30.2% of our total. In other words, three of every 10 shots (and headers) we attempt are coming from The Machine. As Burton's most prolific attempter is Marvin Sordell (14 efforts of their 70 = 20%), this must mean nobody in the Championship takes a higher percentage of his team's efforts than Gaz. Joe Garner's had 16 of Ipswich's 98, Bradley Garner has had 23 of Derby's 102, Liam Kelly 22 of Reading's 107, Gary Hooper 20 of Wednesday's 109, but none of those are near our percentage reliance on Madine. Which, again, isn't to blame him – he's being more isolated than Kevin Davies ever was. He's clearly not good enough to keep us up single-handedly but equally he could be far worse. A much lesser player would win fewer of the aerial duels; a slightly lesser player might win more but get very few attempts off. At least he's trying... "very trying", as yer da' would say.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

To be fair Madine has improved a lot since the end of last season. It might be down to Parky, or being free of lingering injuries, or feeling more settled, or feeling he has the confidence of the management and the club, or a combination of some or all of those, but he is doing things this season I didn't think he was capable of. Last night he did a really skillful flick that totally bamboozled their centre half who ended up bringing him down. He has on numerous occasions this season took a long ball on his chest and swiveled in one movement to hit a powerful long range volley that has either had to be saved or gone narrowly wide.

Yeah, he has his swagger back. And in low moments, I allow myself to fantasise about an alternate universe in which his long-range dipper against Leeds went in, we won, Vela wasn't injured, he and Madine started bagging enough for another couple of wins... and then, to borrow a phrase, the world comes crashing in.

And the world is very neatly summed up by these two wise posts.

The problem we have is that when you have someone like Madine up front, you need the attacking midfielders and wingers around him to contribute in goals, assists and chances created.

ALF is a box player. To play him you need a team good enough to play 2 up front. The only way we can do that realistically with our midfield is 3 at the back. Which isn't working.

Quite often in relatively poor teams (like ours) you get "bits of" players who have some good abilities and you end up wishing you could roll them together. If you could combine ALF's box work with Madine's physicality...

[officer_dibble]

..we’d be losing 2 or 3 - 1 every week...


Cos we haven’t plugged that hole either. My alternate reality is whether we would be up challenging in league one or not had we droopped off last season. I am not sure.

[TANGODANCER]

If you could combine ALF's box work with Madine's physicality...

Sort of like this...? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWUyim2lsrk