Bottom feeders: wounded Wanderers v sinking Sunderland 20/2/18 8pm

[bristol_Wanderer3]

We are back on it again tomorrow (Tuesday) as we play Sunderland at the Macron in a vital relegation scrap.

To say Sunderland are struggling is an understatement. They have losing games consistently, season after season for years now, and finally their houdini like feats to avoid relegation have declined and they are staring their second successive relegation in the face at the moment. The absentee owner Ellis Short primary motivation seems to be to get rid of the club, something he is failing as badly at as the team are on the pitch. Chris Coleman replaced Simon Grayson in October, and whilst there has been a modest new manager bounce, the wheels have started to fall off again recently, with convincing defeats at Birmingham and home to Ipswich and Brentford. An unlikely 3-3 draw was mixed into that when they came back from 3-0 down after 70 minutes, aided by two own goals. After the Brentford defeat on Saturday, Coleman described this game as Sunderland's "game of the season".

We aren't looking in good shape at all. The 2-0 defeats at Cardiff and QPR don't on the face of it look terrible results, but having been at both games I can say the performances were right back down there with our September performances. We also have serious injury and suspension problems with Little out after his sending off on Saturday, Vela out and according to Parky a few more struggling.

There is likely to be a lot of drama in this game if nothing else. Both teams appreciate how vital this game is. Sunderland are much better away, and we are much better at home. Impossible to know who will play and how we will line up, but I am seeing 3000+ Wearsiders going home unhappy after our 1-0 victory

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Iles expects "patched-up" team with big changes. Little's on the naughty step, Vela left Loftus Road in an ankle-support boot, but Parky also notes “At the moment it’s trying to find a team which is ready to go again because we have several players who look like they are not going to make it. There are players like Darren Pratley, Aaron Wilbraham, Will Buckley, Craig Noone, Jon Flanagan who now come into the reckoning.”

http://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/wa ... underland/

Such changes may push a bit closer to the world in which we switch back to 4-2-3-1, especially given the return of Henry's favourite sidekick Pratley and the absence of Little; Flanagan could replace him as a right-back but slightly less likely as a wing-back. If PP wants to stick with the back three he might be tempted to bring in Morais for Little, which has been his default mid-game switch in the last two home games (and the Postman also started there at Cardiff). In a 3-5-2 that gives him two forward slots to divide between Walker, ALF, Ameobi, Clough and possibly Wilbraham – and judging by the comments above that decision may be made on fitness as much as form or tactics.

Side note of tactical importance: you wonder how Sunderland are going to approach this game. There's a case for saying they'll aim to frustrate us then hit on the break, but equally they may fancy a balls-out slugging match not unlike the one these teams had up there. Intriguingly, Sunderland are one of four teams in the division to have a lower PPG at home than away - 0.69 v 0.94; for reference, the other three are Burton 0.56 v 1.06, Reading 0.87 v 1.19, Norwich 1.31 v 1.5. We're 1.38 v 0.5 - 15th best home record, easily the worst away. Sunderland have picked up 15 away points to our eight. No team in the entire football league has a worse away PPG than us.

So even though they might be glad they're away, we should be gladder we're at home. Whether it's back four or back three, nippy runners or target man, Morais and Antonee or Flanagan and f*cking Allen, by Christ I hope we win this. COYWM.

[Harry Genshaw]

I'm hoping for a 3-5-2. With Morais in from the off, to give us that extra attacking option as well as better set piece delivery.

Gotta say - I'm bricking it

[Lost Leopard Spot]

I'm hoping for a 3-5-2. With Morais in from the off, to give us that extra attacking option as well as better set piece delivery.

Gotta say - I'm bricking it

I first read that as you hoping for a 35-2.
I thought feckin hell, he's optimistic!
Anyway, if we lose I'll eat my hat (I'm currently wearing an off the shelf Sainsbury's taste the difference pizza).

[Athertonian]

All depends on team selection and whether Parky decides to send out a team to attack them. Sit back and they'll win.

I'd start Le Fondre because who else will score goals, and scoring goals is the problem.

[BWFC_Insane]

All depends on team selection and whether Parky decides to send out a team to attack them. Sit back and they'll win.

I'd start Le Fondre because who else will score goals, and scoring goals is the problem.

Le Fondre's goal scoring record isn't very good across the last few years at this level. I think he's probably more effective from the bench myself.

I'd go Clough and Ameobi. Two players capable on their day of scoring out of nothing. And I think that's what it might take.

Also agree with the above. Get Morais in and try to score from set pieces. Its about time we did.

[TANGODANCER]

I'm confessing to knowing nothing about Noone. What's the score with him? I was under the impression he'd been brought in to score? He doesn't even get chosen in the starting eleven?

[BWFC_Insane]

I'm confessing to knowing nothing about Noone. What's the score with him? I was under the impression he'd been brought in to score? He doesn't even get chosen in the starting eleven?

Across his entire career he's scored less than a goal every 10 games. He was great a few seasons back for Cardiff when they won promotion but in reality hasn't done a lot since.

He's looked poor to me, in the snippets he's had here. Whether its a fitness thing or just form I don't know.

Buckley is similar. There is a player there, but I think injuries have just stunted his career and he looks very poor now.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Noone's a winger Tango, goals would be a bonus rather than a necessity.

Interesting words from PP in today's BN.

Obviously two players go out and we’ve got to look at the system now. We’ve got to look at the change of personnel, for many reasons, obviously we have injuries so we do need to look to freshen the team up.

We’ve got options, that’s why we brought players in before the deadline, to make sure when we do pick up injuries and suspensions, we’ve got cover. The other players stepping up have been great.

Josh [Vela] has damaged his ankle ligaments, we don’t really know the extent of it yet, we’ll wait until the swelling has gone down over the next 24 hours but obviously there is a significant injury and we’ll just have to keep our fingers crossed that it’s not too bad.

Darren [D-Pratz] is progressing well but it’s a difficult one with him, because he’s been out for six or seven weeks now. We want to make sure that when he comes back he’s ready to play a sustained part in the remainder of the season.

Glendinning (Iles is on holibobs) says "niggles for Aaron Wilbraham, Will Buckley and Craig Noone are easing". Parky might be tempted back toward 4-2-3-1 by the availability of more wingers and a target man (usual caveat here). I'd still like to see Zach, Sammy and one other playing off a front-man, but I'm not sure who that front man is; I don't share BWFCi's certitude that ALF is a busted flush but I do think he needs somebody alongside him. Will be interesting to see how attacking tonight's selection looks - the XI and the bench.

[BWFC_Insane]

Noone's a winger Tango, goals would be a bonus rather than a necessity.

Interesting words from PP in today's BN.

Obviously two players go out and we’ve got to look at the system now. We’ve got to look at the change of personnel, for many reasons, obviously we have injuries so we do need to look to freshen the team up.

We’ve got options, that’s why we brought players in before the deadline, to make sure when we do pick up injuries and suspensions, we’ve got cover. The other players stepping up have been great.

Josh [Vela] has damaged his ankle ligaments, we don’t really know the extent of it yet, we’ll wait until the swelling has gone down over the next 24 hours but obviously there is a significant injury and we’ll just have to keep our fingers crossed that it’s not too bad.

Darren [D-Pratz] is progressing well but it’s a difficult one with him, because he’s been out for six or seven weeks now. We want to make sure that when he comes back he’s ready to play a sustained part in the remainder of the season.

Glendinning (Iles is on holibobs) says "niggles for Aaron Wilbraham, Will Buckley and Craig Noone are easing". Parky might be tempted back toward 4-2-3-1 by the availability of more wingers and a target man (usual caveat here). I'd still like to see Zach, Sammy and one other playing off a front-man, but I'm not sure who that front man is; I don't share BWFCi's certitude that ALF is a busted flush but I do think he needs somebody alongside him. Will be interesting to see how attacking tonight's selection looks - the XI and the bench.

ALF with a target man makes sense. ALF with Ameobi doesn't work too well IMHO.

I don't think personally ALF offers enough to warrant a place, though I accept he's the most natural finisher we've got and its a conundrum of do you play him and hope the chance falls to him and he sticks it away? For me ALF is why I wanted us to get a proper target man in, because I think a 3-5-2 with ALF and a big lad could be quite effective.

[TANGODANCER]

ALF with a target man makes sense. ALF with Ameobi doesn't work too well IMHO.

I don't think personally ALF offers enough to warrant a place, though I accept he's the most natural finisher we've got and its a conundrum of do you play him and hope the chance falls to him and he sticks it away? For me ALF is why I wanted us to get a proper target man in, because I think a 3-5-2 with ALF and a big lad could be quite effective.

A: Sammi isn't a target man primarily. He does better coming from deep and running at defences( he's scored two crackers that way)
B: Yes, I've quoted these several times; Kevin Keegan and Kevin Phillips were both phenomenal scorers playing off big lads, Toshack and Niall Quinn. That's Alf's sort of role.

[BWFC_Insane]

ALF with a target man makes sense. ALF with Ameobi doesn't work too well IMHO.

I don't think personally ALF offers enough to warrant a place, though I accept he's the most natural finisher we've got and its a conundrum of do you play him and hope the chance falls to him and he sticks it away? For me ALF is why I wanted us to get a proper target man in, because I think a 3-5-2 with ALF and a big lad could be quite effective.

A: Sammi isn't a target man primarily. He does better coming from deep and running at defences( he's scored two crackers that way)

Yes, that is my point. I don't think he's what ALF needs really. He is our best outlet and holds it up, which is why Parky has played him in the centre forward role. But I think over time he'll link up best with Clough out of the options we've got.

[bristol_Wanderer3]

I would go 4-2-3-1:

Alnwick
Burke/Flanagan, Wheater, Beevers/Dervite, Robinson
Henry, Karacan/Pratley,
Ameobi/Noone, Karacan/Aemobi, Clough
Walker.

Not sure if Flanagan is match fit, so if not play Burke at right back. He looked ok there at QPR after Little saw red.
I think Dervite is a way better player than Beevers, but Parky likes Beevers so he will probably play.
If Pratley is fit I would start him alongside Henry as two holding midfielders and push Karacan further forward into the Vela role.
If Prately can't play I would use Ameobi in the Vela role with Karacan alongside Henry, and Noone and Clough as the wide attackers.
Walker up front means we have to hit our long balls into the channels rather than at his head.

Against Sunderland I think this team can score goals. Clough, Ameobi and Walker all have a goal in them. I think our rigid version of the 3-5-2 will struggle to get goals.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

There are eight matches tonight in the Championship. I've just put a bet on that all eight will be home wins. The only big niggle I have is the Forest/Reading match, and just hope no draws take place either, but if all eight come in not only will Bolton be in a safer position, but I'll be about three grand up too. COYWM(&HT).

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

There are eight matches tonight in the Championship. I've just put a bet on that all eight will be home wins. The only big niggle I have is the Forest/Reading match, and just hope no draws take place either, but if all eight come in not only will Bolton be in a safer position, but I'll be about three grand up too. COYWM(&HT).

Well, good luck, but I'm not confident for you: as I said over on the "staying up[?]" thread, there's a whiff of Slightly Surprising Away Wins in the air tonight. Burton might frustrate then infuriate Barnsley; Brentford have struggled at home to bottom-feeders (bar us obvz) and Birmingham are on decent form; away-preferrers Reading might fancy felling off-form Forest. And obviously, it's very much within our scope to completely feck things up at our place.

But overall, I'd be happy if you're richer. We'd be 18th, 4pts above the dots and 7pts above a suddenly isolated bottom two.

[BWFC_Insane]

There are eight matches tonight in the Championship. I've just put a bet on that all eight will be home wins. The only big niggle I have is the Forest/Reading match, and just hope no draws take place either, but if all eight come in not only will Bolton be in a safer position, but I'll be about three grand up too. COYWM(&HT).

Well, good luck, but I'm not confident for you: as I said over on the "staying up[?]" thread, there's a whiff of Slightly Surprising Away Wins in the air tonight. Burton might frustrate then infuriate Barnsley; Brentford have struggled at home to bottom-feeders (bar us obvz) and Birmingham are on decent form; away-preferrers Reading might fancy felling off-form Forest. And obviously, it's very much within our scope to completely feck things up at our place.

But overall, I'd be happy if you're richer. We'd be 18th, 4pts above the dots and 7pts above a suddenly isolated bottom two.

I think we'll struggle tonight. Sunderland are at the point of "very little to lose". We're trying to accomodate new players, and newly returning ones into a system that is likely to change somewhat if not entirely.

The script is very much written for an away win. Or a frustrating 0-0/1-1. You can almost feel it.

On the other hand I'm in Birmingham so can't go. So on that basis it will be performance of the season and a sumptuous 6-0 home win with an ALF hat-trick.

[Harry Genshaw]

Sunderland having little to lose could play into our hands. We've certainly looked better against sides that have come at us at home, rather than the few who have sat deep.

I wonder if Coleman will go all gung how ( see his team talk pre Brentford) or whether he'll take the cautious point first approach

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

ch-2018-02-20.png (89.13 KiB) Viewed 7111 times

https://experimental361.com/2018/02/20/ ... -feb-2018/

[Lost Leopard Spot]

ch-2018-02-20.png

https://experimental361.com/2018/02/20/ ... -feb-2018/

I accept "it's not betting advice", but as I've already bet it's nice to get a small confirmation that 8 home wins is not improbable (especially as I got odds of 298.3-1). I don't like the 'fact' that Bolton are the second least likely to win tonight though.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

ch-2018-02-20.png

https://experimental361.com/2018/02/20/ ... -feb-2018/

I accept "it's not betting advice", but as I've already bet it's nice to get a small confirmation that 8 home wins is not improbable (especially as I got odds of 298.3-1). I don't like the 'fact' that Bolton are the second least likely to win tonight though.

Fourth least. Millwall, Villa and Forest all have slightly lower percentage chances. Dunno why they're in that nearly-but-not-quite-right order.