Skidding up to 18th, or will our Championship drift north, end? BWFC v Preston 3/3/18 3pm

[bristol_Wanderer3]

Weather permitting we take on Preston North End at the Macron on Saturday. If we can get something here, and with Reading away to Wolves, there is a chance for us to reach the giddy heights of 18th. Preston have selected this game as their "Gentry Day", a day when Preston fans remember fans and employees of the club from days gone by. They generally lay on free travel and and dress in fashions of decades gone by, so expect to see more three piece suits and Boler hats than normal. So far 3300 tickets have been sold for the away end.

On the pitch Preston are enjoying an excellent season, with only seven defeats all season, and currently lying ninth with 51 points. They play a high energy, pressing style with a very solid defence. Indeed but for a wobble in October when they lost four games in a row amidst a freak injury crisis in which seven defenders were unavailable, a run ended by a 0-0 draw with us, they would be established in the play off places. Since then they have lost only twice, and are unbeaten away. Preston are generally thought of as a well run club living on modest means, but even they have benefitted from owner Trevor Hemmings generosity, as he helped the finances with a £7m injection last season. This enabled them to resist bids totalling £20m for their players in the summer, including a reported £8m bid for striker Jordan Hugill, but they succumbed to a £10m bid for him in the January window from West Ham. Russell Moult from Motherwell and Billy Bodin from Bristol Rovers both cost a reported £500,000 as replacements, suggesting Mr Hemmings might be able to recoup some of his investment this season.

We currently have the knack of grinding out points despite not playing well. There is an argument for saying we could have lost all of our last six games on the balance of play, particularly the last two that have yielded four points. Instead we have W2 D2 L2, including games against three promotion chasing sides. For this game some of the injuries seem to be clearing up with Vela nearing full fitness, though Burke is reportedly a doubt after twisting his ankle in last weeks 0-0 draw with Norwich. John Flanagan made an impressive debut coming on at right back at Norwich, whilst Jan Kirchhoff remains in reserve after his recent signing as a free agent.

We switched to a 4-2-3-1 after starting with our new standard 3-5-2 last week, and we improved when we made the switch. Preston have played 4-2-3-1 all season so it will be interesting to see if we match them up. It is hard to see many goals in this game. We have scored 8 in our last twelve, or three in our last six, whilst Preston have only scored three in their last four winless games. Therefore if storm Emma calms down, and the undersoil heating works, and the M61 is passable, maybe we can slide to 1-0? COYW.

[BWFC_Insane]

The fine margins will at some point go against us. We have to find a way to score more goals whilst maintaining our recent defensive solidity.

Never particularly like derby games as they are usually very tight and tricky to predict. We can't afford to slip up much at home so every home game is huge.

1-0 either way, or 1-1.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

I've a distinct feeling that quite a few matches won't take place this weekend...

[BWFC_Insane]

I've a distinct feeling that quite a few matches won't take place this weekend...

Ours will be on, unless there is loads of new snow in the area (that currently isn't really forecast) - so says Parky.

[boltonboris]

The only time I remember a game being called of at the Macbok, is when we intentionally turned the heating off because we had a shitload of injuries against Birmingham and we let the pitch freeze. Steve Bruce complained and wanted the 3 points, we got a fine instead.

Weather has been much worse than this since and we've not had the cancellations

[TANGODANCER]

The fine margins will at some point go against us. We have to find a way to score more goals whilst maintaining our recent defensive solidity.

I was sort of hoping they might go for us. We've had enough of against for one year thanks: No money, borrowing players, big debts, court injunctions, inland revenue and injuries. That'll do for a bit. Let's try a few fine margins on our side.

[BWFC_Insane]

The fine margins will at some point go against us. We have to find a way to score more goals whilst maintaining our recent defensive solidity.

I was sort of hoping they might go for us. We've had enough of against for one year thanks: No money, borrowing players, big debts, court injunctions, inland revenue and injuries. That'll do for a bit. Let's try a few fine margins on our side.

What I mean is, in our last 6 we've scored 3 goals to collect 8 points. The margins are that in each of those games we very easily could have lost had chances gone in for the other side. And we do not appear to be likely to score many. We're on the edge every time and at some point its likely (statistically) that we'll start coming out the wrong side more often than not, UNLESS we start to score a few more, somehow. 0.5 goals per game is very unlikely to be enough to keep us up till the end of the season.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

The fine margins will at some point go against us. We have to find a way to score more goals whilst maintaining our recent defensive solidity.

I was sort of hoping they might go for us. We've had enough of against for one year thanks: No money, borrowing players, big debts, court injunctions, inland revenue and injuries. That'll do for a bit. Let's try a few fine margins on our side.

What I mean is, in our last 6 we've scored 3 goals to collect 8 points. The margins are that in each of those games we very easily could have lost had chances gone in for the other side. And we do not appear to be likely to score many. We're on the edge every time and at some point its likely (statistically) that we'll start coming out the wrong side more often than not, UNLESS we start to score a few more, somehow. 0.5 goals per game is very unlikely to be enough to keep us up till the end of the season.

You're right that it is statistically unlikely to continue. What's happened is that we've tightened up at the back. In the first 22 league games, up to and including mid-December's home defeat to Burton, we kept two clean sheets and only managed the minimum two points from them (our three wins to that point all included conceded goals). Since then, we've managed six clean sheets in 12 games – which is impressive enough for a relegation-battler, but what's even better is that we've turned five of those six shutouts into wins.

One other thing: judging by future opponents' PPGs, we've got the easiest run-in of any team in the bottom half. In fact, we've got the second-easiest in the division. So if we can keep these (misfiring) teams out at the back, we might not need to score three goals per game.

(Source: http://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?le ... nd2&tid=10)

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[Bruce Rioja]

The only time I remember a game being called of at the Macbok, is when we intentionally turned the heating off because we had a shitload of injuries against Birmingham and we let the pitch freeze. Steve Bruce complained and wanted the 3 points, we got a fine instead.

Weather has been much worse than this since and we've not had the cancellations

I remember a cup game against Cardiff getting called off too. I recall similar accusations at that time as well.

[TANGODANCER]

Really hoping this goes ahead, but the wind could have a say. Just come in from a ( unwilling) dog walk -he's up for it, I'd rather stay in - and there's damage everywhere: broken fence panels, (including one of ours) things and bins blown over, a piece of somebody's corrugated plastic roof sheet in our garden and the marquee for a wedding at the bottom of our road absolutely wrecked and blown away. The bins did get emptied today, fair enough, but whilst we're expected to have them nice and neat waiting for their majesties, the Recycling Rovers, they just fling them back anywhere and consequently the roads are littered with overturned (empty) bins being blown everywhere. Some folk from the last couple of days might not have been so lucky and not had the bins emptied at all. ( Elf and safety, you guv!)

Anyway, if the wind keeps up at this rate, the beautiful game could be seriously affected one way or another. Fingers crossed.

[Harry Genshaw]

Setting off for home tomorrow and hoping the games still on. Another tight game and I really can't call this. I'll go 1-1

[TANGODANCER]

Barnsly, Brentford, Hull and Burton games are all off. A win here could make our position look pretty good. Snow's predicted for Bolton over the weekend, but for now, COME ON YOU WHITES.....

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Set out for the game but had to turn back after Buxton. Tried Leek road and that's shut too. Radio Tango it is then, if Iget past traffic accident at Brierlow Bar.

[TANGODANCER]

So Prats and Vela are back and Walker replaces Alf up front with Sammi. Ben between the sticks, Robinson at left back , Wheats, Beevers and Dervite as the barrier, Karajan,Pratley and Vela as the mid-field. A fine bracing wind as a departing gift from Edna or whatever her name is, still bitterly cold but all good to go. Ten mins to kick-off, so COME ON YOU WHITES.....

[TANGODANCER]

Apparently the pitch is being well watered right now...?? Mic man reckons about 18,000 or so of a crowd expected with a healthy Preston input ..

[TANGODANCER]

Preston in yellow, bowler hats in abundance from the visitor's fans, and mic man reckons 3-4000 of them have turned out. A bit of chat about the new Kirchoff chap, will we see him. Both sides in short-sleeve shirts as off we go....

[TANGODANCER]

Beevers and Prats clear, and they wallop it back in return. They sally, get a cross and a shot in and Vela comes in like Hurricane Josh and decks a Lillywhite. Lucky not to see yellow reckons mic man. (well, he's a Bury supporter) Anyway, Ben wallops and Sammi gets shoved over for a free kick to us. Morias to take and....on the breeze and....it comes to naught and a goal kick them. Should have been a shot?...anyway, they sally at us and....they get a free kick for a challenge on Brown. And.....30 out and....Gallagher and....offside Huntington.

[TANGODANCER]

They sally, we clear, they come back and...we get a goal kick? Have we got forth yet? And......they get a corner after Morais blocks a shot. Goal kick again and that's a couple of sallies and....some irrelevasnt scores, then.....back thy come and..Prats clears (mic man again said that was a foul) Again they get a chance header on goal, but Ben grabs it. Again we're starting slowly?...Brum one down already. And....Pratley, Dervite, Walker, Sammi, Vela,,,Robinson....wins a corner. And..Morais and.....not many in and...Beeverrs nods one on 1-0

[Jim_McDonuts]

'bout time he got one - brilliant!

[TANGODANCER]

A Dervite header deflected...Beevers knocked it home. Nice one.... They sally, Beevers, Prats, Morais and....Walker and....Sammi wins another corner off Woods. Morais and.....and ....in and....ohhhh they clear off the line. Good cross and a Beevers header....throw now....and opffside.