Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:05 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:53 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:40 am
I mean its 2 dropped, but equally, its 5 clear with one game left. After Preston that's a miraculous position to be in.

We will need an away win somewhere, and sadly I strongly suspect as bad as Wednesday are it won't come Saturday.

But if we've found a system that helps, we've still to go to Burton (who are weak at home) and that could be key.
Agree it's five clear with one game less. Not miraculous though. Quite aside from my distaste for hyperbole (it's hardly walking on water or healing lepers) the teams below us are self-evidently not showing any sign of relegation-escaping form. Yes, it's possible that one might find its feet, but we're not fourth-bottom: to slip below the dots we'd need three to up their games, and still no team in the bottom eight has better form than us over the last 10 games.

I also agree we should be able to win at Burton, who might even be dead by then. We can also have reasonable hopes of winning at Barnsley (and, yes, a Wednesday side who've won one home game since Halloween). And there's probably nine winnable points from the remaining home games (Villa, Birmingham, Millwall, Wolves, Forest). Given that there's no rising stars from below us, 46 points (11 from the last 10) should be enough. It might even be less than that.
Home games worry me right now because...

Villa - bang in form
Brum - 6 pointer and a new manager - I firmly believe that will be a very difficult game - I expect Brum to rise.
Millwall - have just won their last 5 away games.
Wolves - best side in the league
Forest - nail biter?

I think that looks tough to me. We'll have to win one of Brum/Millwall and beat Forest IMHO.

That gives us 41. So we'll need a draw in one of the other home games to get to 42. Plus 4/5 away points to get to 46/47 which I believe will give you a more than decent chance of safety. I can't see us getting beyond that so if a few teams below us suddenly find their feet then.....

Has to be noted that towards the end of the season its usual for a team or two down near the bottom to pick up form and win a few unexpectedly.

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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by TANGODANCER » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:13 am

Pre match, playing away from home, apprehension may well have been (was) the order of the day.To come away with a precious point and in view of fate being totally on our side and everyone else losing, well, it feels less than bad. We are still prone to error, who isn't? but at least we're fighting. I'm still a bit unsure (probably like quite a few others) what Parky is expecting from Wilbrham? Whatever it is, it ain't happening. Zac Clough on loan must be wondering why we bothered taking him on. Kirchoff and Flanagan seem good additions, but Little is also a bonus plus at right back. Might be interestin g to see what Parky has in mind against Sheffield? Will he bring Vela back in and play two from three with Wheats, Kirchoff and Beevers, and will Sammi be fit etc...A win there could be brilliant, particularly if Reading (playing Leeds) should lose. The rest, immatrial right now if we win...
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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:18 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:05 am
Home games worry me right now because...

Villa - bang in form
Brum - 6 pointer and a new manager - I firmly believe that will be a very difficult game - I expect Brum to rise.
Millwall - have just won their last 5 away games.
Wolves - best side in the league
Forest - nail biter?

I think that looks tough to me. We'll have to win one of Brum/Millwall and beat Forest IMHO.

That gives us 41. So we'll need a draw in one of the other home games to get to 42. Plus 4/5 away points to get to 46/47 which I believe will give you a more than decent chance of safety. I can't see us getting beyond that so if a few teams below us suddenly find their feet then.....

Has to be noted that towards the end of the season its usual for a team or two down near the bottom to pick up form and win a few unexpectedly.
Yep, I understand. You are by nature a worrier, and I tend to be sunnier in outlook. Neither of us can know.

But I always try to look at it from the other side, including during a match. (Interesting to hear the Reading radio folk wishing they had Karacan, for instance.) Not many Birmingham fans right now would be confident of getting three points at ours. Villa and Wolves are obviously better sides than us, I'll give you that, and Millwall are no pushovers. But I think we can beat them at their own game (well-structured rigidity). And by the time we face them, Forest will be in deck shoes.

As for that end-of-season form – you're right, it usually happens. It hasn't yet. And we'd need more than one team to do it, or us to lose form, or us to lose six-pointers. And at that point, you're piling supposition upon supposition. I completely understand that we fans struggle to disassociate emotion from intellect but statistically we are now likely to stay up. Not a fighting chance: *likely*. Last time Experimental361 ran the numbers we had a 72% chance of survival. That was February 25th, and since then none of the five teams below us have got a single point closer to us, and all bar Burton have played twice. They and Birmingham are further behind.

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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:09 pm

throwawayboltonian wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:59 am
Thanks for the insights DSB, a good read as ever :)
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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:20 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:18 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:05 am
Home games worry me right now because...

Villa - bang in form
Brum - 6 pointer and a new manager - I firmly believe that will be a very difficult game - I expect Brum to rise.
Millwall - have just won their last 5 away games.
Wolves - best side in the league
Forest - nail biter?

I think that looks tough to me. We'll have to win one of Brum/Millwall and beat Forest IMHO.

That gives us 41. So we'll need a draw in one of the other home games to get to 42. Plus 4/5 away points to get to 46/47 which I believe will give you a more than decent chance of safety. I can't see us getting beyond that so if a few teams below us suddenly find their feet then.....

Has to be noted that towards the end of the season its usual for a team or two down near the bottom to pick up form and win a few unexpectedly.
Yep, I understand. You are by nature a worrier, and I tend to be sunnier in outlook. Neither of us can know.

But I always try to look at it from the other side, including during a match. (Interesting to hear the Reading radio folk wishing they had Karacan, for instance.) Not many Birmingham fans right now would be confident of getting three points at ours. Villa and Wolves are obviously better sides than us, I'll give you that, and Millwall are no pushovers. But I think we can beat them at their own game (well-structured rigidity). And by the time we face them, Forest will be in deck shoes.

As for that end-of-season form – you're right, it usually happens. It hasn't yet. And we'd need more than one team to do it, or us to lose form, or us to lose six-pointers. And at that point, you're piling supposition upon supposition. I completely understand that we fans struggle to disassociate emotion from intellect but statistically we are now likely to stay up. Not a fighting chance: *likely*. Last time Experimental361 ran the numbers we had a 72% chance of survival. That was February 25th, and since then none of the five teams below us have got a single point closer to us, and all bar Burton have played twice. They and Birmingham are further behind.
I agree we're in a good position. About as good a position as we could expect. It doesn't take much though for that position to get worse. Our main issue is very poor away form, and a home run in that looks like a tough set of games. I still expect us to win some. I do worry that genuinely (bar last night) we've not really dominated a game for a long while (physically or with the ball) and I wonder if that will take its toll. I keep coming back to our reliance on margins. Preston showed that side with something to play for, and a will to win, will beat us more often than not. We're coming up against a few of those at home and I think we've worse squads than most if not all we're facing there.

Away I think Burton and Barnsley are opportunities. Even Wednesday and Leeds for something. But we have to improve our away form as I don't think our current home PPG will be maintained.

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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:24 pm

Yep, again, fair comments, based on a different mindset. But whether it's based on qualitative or quantitative analysis, I still think there's quite simply enough teams worse than us. And I know you hope I'm right :D

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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:28 pm

Lee Anderson tweet...
@superagent73
3h3 hours ago
More
ObasiFor all those asking FYI he played his last competitive game back end of November scoring in his final game and Had mid winter preseason in sweden . ⚠️His lack of fitness has been a little overstated . Remember , Jan hadn’t had anywhere near that and he was 🔥last night .
Surely the only person who's raised the issue of fitness is Parky himself? Is this a sign that Obasi was signed by Lee/Ken and Parky wasn't too keen? Or perhaps was told "its him or nowt"?

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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:36 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:28 pm
Lee Anderson tweet...
@superagent73
3h3 hours ago
More
ObasiFor all those asking FYI he played his last competitive game back end of November scoring in his final game and Had mid winter preseason in sweden . ⚠️His lack of fitness has been a little overstated . Remember , Jan hadn’t had anywhere near that and he was 🔥last night .
Surely the only person who's raised the issue of fitness is Parky himself? Is this a sign that Obasi was signed by Lee/Ken and Parky wasn't too keen? Or perhaps was told "its him or nowt"?
Hmm. And on a possibly related note (especially for this thread), Zach Clough is currently looking a lot like a will-this-do impulse grab, a knee-jerk reaction to Chungy's move collapsing. It'd be bad enough being an unused sub in three successive games, without watching in each game as Wilbraham lumbers on instead of him. In fact you could argue last night would be even more painful for Zach: a reversion to the 4-2-3-1 formation in which he flourished last season, but he's not in the XI; a winger (Morais) gets injured, but PP sends on the consistently underwhelming Noone; a tiring winger (Buckley) needs replacing, and instead PP sends on Wilbraham and changes to 4-4-2 with Pratley wide left. While each decision could be justified, that's got to hurt.

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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:41 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:36 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:28 pm
Lee Anderson tweet...
@superagent73
3h3 hours ago
More
ObasiFor all those asking FYI he played his last competitive game back end of November scoring in his final game and Had mid winter preseason in sweden . ⚠️His lack of fitness has been a little overstated . Remember , Jan hadn’t had anywhere near that and he was 🔥last night .
Surely the only person who's raised the issue of fitness is Parky himself? Is this a sign that Obasi was signed by Lee/Ken and Parky wasn't too keen? Or perhaps was told "its him or nowt"?
Hmm. And on a possibly related note (especially for this thread), Zach Clough is currently looking a lot like a will-this-do impulse grab, a knee-jerk reaction to Chungy's move collapsing. It'd be bad enough being an unused sub in three successive games, without watching in each game as Wilbraham lumbers on instead of him. In fact you could argue last night would be even more painful for Zach: a reversion to the 4-2-3-1 formation in which he flourished last season, but he's not in the XI; a winger (Morais) gets injured, but PP sends on the consistently underwhelming Noone; a tiring winger (Buckley) needs replacing, and instead PP sends on Wilbraham and changes to 4-4-2 with Pratley wide left. While each decision could be justified, that's got to hurt.
Morais was injured? Didn't know that. What was up with him?

I think Clough was clearly not the ideal fit for Parky. But then he's worked with him before...so....you'd imagine he'd at least know how to get the best out of him.

I think young Zach sadly is one who burst onto the scene but will never back that initial promise up. I think football nowadays has moved on and its very hard to find a way to accomodate him. Off the left in a 4-5-1 is probably the only way we can do it, the trouble being he doesn't contribute much, at all, off the ball and in this league more often than not we don't have it.

I still think he'll produce one moment of magic before the end of the season, but I can't see him being a championship regular for anyone, anytime soon.

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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:53 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:41 pm
Morais was injured? Didn't know that. What was up with him?
Sorry, didn't wish to startle you. He appeared to be struggling a bit, but he wasn't stretchered off – in fact we thought it might be Buckley going off before the Postman finished his round. No indication of owt long-term.
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:41 pm
I think Clough was clearly not the ideal fit for Parky. But then he's worked with him before...so....you'd imagine he'd at least know how to get the best out of him.

I think young Zach sadly is one who burst onto the scene but will never back that initial promise up. I think football nowadays has moved on and its very hard to find a way to accomodate him. Off the left in a 4-5-1 is probably the only way we can do it, the trouble being he doesn't contribute much, at all, off the ball and in this league more often than not we don't have it.

I still think he'll produce one moment of magic before the end of the season, but I can't see him being a championship regular for anyone, anytime soon.
As is usual, I don't necessarily subscribe to your worldview, despite recognising its validity. I'd agree that 4231 probably suits him best (of the shapes realistically available to us), and that's perhaps why it felt so disappointing not to see him last night – the first time we'd started that system since his return. I also agree that it's harder at this level to accommodate a primarily creative player in that sort of semi-midfield role, although I'd say he should be good enough to do it as an emerging sub while still giving us more potential creativity. I mean, he's being kept out by Buckley and Noone.

Given that, though, it's possible that PP will change it all again for the Sheffield trip. Indeed, if Kirchhoff isn't deemed fit for a start (last night's 70 minutes was perhaps surprisingly long, so his recovery will be closely monitored) and Pratz drops back beside Henry, we could see a reunited Clough-Vela-Ameobi threesome. Maybe that's the plan. Maybe not...

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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by irie Cee Bee » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:35 pm

Happy that PP discarded the 3-5-2 for the more solid 4-2-3-1 and strengthening the side with some steel (Flanagan, Taylor, Henry, Kirchhoff), pushing Pratley further forward and leaving out Vela who has not been up to it for a while. We now look like a solid team with good options on the Bench. Surprised by ALF playing alone up top and Clough being ignored. The style of play also was refreshing (Less hoof ball). Ameobi back will make us even better and hoping that Obasi will add a different dimension and score a few.

A good point and feeling more confident about survival.

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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by Prufrock » Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:31 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:40 am
Dr Hotdog wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:07 am
I listened on the Radio to GMR and it sounded to me like two points dropped (a bit like the reverse fixture on our patch where we were 2-0 up and cruising before we f*cked it). They made 6 changes, were shit, had their reserve goalie in nets who was playing in South Africa last season and had only made one previous start this season (against US!), were shit, gave a debut to a 17-year-old defender and were shit. And we threw Aaron fecking Wilbraham on at the death to absolutely no avail. They didn't have a shot in the second half until Taylor had to scramble something off the line with the very last kick of the game. WILBRAHAM!!! WTF. Is wee Zach not up to it? I hear Buckley and LeFawnduh both missed sitters. Costly.

I guess we did well to grind out a point without Vela and Ameobi....right? I guess we did well to come back into the game after conceeding a sloppy goal against the run of play. That's a big plus away from home. Granted.

It's still a wasted opportunity and I hope it doesn't come back to haunt us. The five point gap this morning should be seven.
I mean its 2 dropped, but equally, its 5 clear with one game left. After Preston that's a miraculous position to be in.

We will need an away win somewhere, and sadly I strongly suspect as bad as Wednesday are it won't come Saturday.

But if we've found a system that helps, we've still to go to Burton (who are weak at home) and that could be key.
Well our first home win of the season, first league win of the season, first away win of the season (and millennium) all came against Steel City oppo so here's hoping. Massive game that. I'd be surprised if the winner went down
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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by bristol_Wanderer3 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:56 pm

Very happy with this result when combined with all the other results. Especially as it sounds like it wasn't one way traffic towards our goal and we could've credibly been worthy winners.

I think 4-2-3-1 should be our standard going forward given the way Parky plays 3-5-2. The 5 in our 3-5-2 all become defensive and the three midfielders are all rigidly in fixed positions each with primarily defensive responsibilities. And we don't have a right wing back who can do enough miles to cover the defence whilst supporting the attack. It would take outstanding individual strikers to consistently create chances playing this way which no one outside the Champions League has, let alone the bottom six of the Championship.

Anyway the bottom nine of the Championship could do no more to help us than they are at the moment. Slightly worried about potential new manager bounces at Birmingham and Barnsley but long may it continue. COYW.

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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:32 pm

^ you used "going forward" as in the sense of 'in the future'... :whack: Let that be a warning to you and we'll speak no more about it :wink:
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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by boltonboris » Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:01 pm

Apparently Alfie was excellent last night - Might disappoint a few
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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by TANGODANCER » Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:10 pm

boltonboris wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:01 pm
Apparently Alfie was excellent last night - Might disappoint a few
When we stay up there'll be some who say we should have won the league. Such is la vida loca of football fans. :wink:
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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by twilight » Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:19 pm

Wished they had played like that last Saturday, we might have got a point then! Anyway, well played lads, happy with an away point

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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by GhostoftheBok » Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:30 pm

boltonboris wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:01 pm
Apparently Alfie was excellent last night - Might disappoint a few
He's a good player. I know people who coached him at Stockport and Rochdale and they've only got positive things to say about his ability. We've also seen him score goals for us here. It's a question of whether his face fits and whether Parky can work him into a system.

1-1 away is a great result for us at the moment and we apparently played better football. If we can get something at the weekend then it'll be huge for us. If we get beaten it's essentially one less team we can claw into the mire with us.

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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:51 pm

boltonboris wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:01 pm
Apparently Alfie was excellent last night - Might disappoint a few
There's at least one 'nutter' who will claim he wasn't.
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Re: Can we get out of Gaol at Reading, or will we go home Wilde? Reading v B.W.F.C, 6TH March 8-0'clock.

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:57 am

Interesting stat from Marc Iles:
According to stats from Whoscored.com, the number of ‘long balls’ played [at Reading] by Wanderers (24.3 per cent) was their lowest of the Championship season so far and had reduced by more than 15 per cent on recent games against Sunderland and QPR.
Some interesting quotes from PP too.

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