We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

[Lost Leopard Spot]

There will be surprise results now down the bottom. The odd team will win games we're not expecting. Always happens.

IF we keep our spirit and find some way of scoring goals we'll be more than fine. The first part doesn't worry me, the second part is mildly worrying.

There "may" be surprise results. Perhaps even "given previous seasons, there is likely to be" surprise results. But you can't know there "will".


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In the last 20 games the bottom four have played, there have been two wins. One was Burton's at Barnsley. The other was Barnsley's at Birmingham.

You might be right, but it hasn't happened yet. Meantime, we've been tiptoeing up the league ladder, and now we'd need three teams to catch us up before the much-monged doom. By tomorrow night, it might just be five.

Three of the five beneath us have a game in hand... just saying like, not particularly mongering doomwise.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Three of the five beneath us have a game in hand... just saying like, not particularly mongering doomwise.

That is true - and on their current form of less than 1PPG, they're liable to lose that too.

As it happens they'll all have to play their (games in) hand next Tuesday, when those snowed-off games will take place. For the record, Barnsley host Norwich, Burton travel to Bramall Lane, Hull are at Ipswich. Same night, Reading travel to Wolves.

[jmjhb]

There will be surprise results now down the bottom. The odd team will win games we're not expecting. Always happens.

IF we keep our spirit and find some way of scoring goals we'll be more than fine. The first part doesn't worry me, the second part is mildly worrying.

There "may" be surprise results. Perhaps even "given previous seasons, there is likely to be" surprise results. But you can't know there "will".


Screen Shot 2018-03-09 at 12.37.01.png


In the last 20 games the bottom four have played, there have been two wins. One was Burton's at Barnsley. The other was Barnsley's at Birmingham.

You might be right, but it hasn't happened yet. Meantime, we've been tiptoeing up the league ladder, and now we'd need three teams to catch us up before the much-monged doom. By tomorrow night, it might just be five.

Three of the five beneath us have a game in hand... just saying like, not particularly mongering doomwise.

Two of those 3 aren't in the relegation zone. I'd say Burton's game in hand was more important than Hull and Barnsley's

[GhostoftheBok]

I'd rather have points than a game in hand, given the terrible form of everyone in the relegation battle. We need to win at least 4 of the last 10 games to get us to the stage that usually keeps you up. Last season you needed over 50 points, but it's usually mid 40s to just about stay up and high 40s to not have to panic on the last day. We should just about manage that on current form. If teams go on a late run then we're in bother.

[Prufrock]

So much money in most of the Champo now that I think the bottom 6 or so will be more adrift (and so lower points needed).

[nicholaldo]

So we end another matchday marginally further away from the bottom three than we were when it started. As we're now at the stage where we can begin debating how many points we need from the remaining fixtures to guarantee safety, will nine do us?

Can we even get away with just six if we earn those six by beating our relegation rivals?

(I admit that I've got no idea of how difficult, on paper, the run-in is for those around us, but two of the bottom three must be wondering where their next win's coming from)

[nicholaldo]

Right, I've just quickly checked the fixtures and six is almost definitely not enough. Nine, though, could just be the magic number. Burton Albion, in the best run of form of the bottom three, still have to play four of the clubs currently in the play-off places, and while Birmingham City and Sunderland have a less taxing run, they, as posted above, are in free fall.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Aye, during the trip back The Legendary Flanners and I settled on us needing nine more points. But it might be less, depending on whether or how many teams below us wake up.

Hull was a blow, especially to those of us whose phones had packed in at half time, but again those below us are proving themselves awful nettle-graspers.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

The latest E-Ratings predictions based on expected goals* reckons each of the current bottom three have an 80%+ chance of relegation. We're down to about 17%.

2018-03-11-ch-probabilities.png (33.54 KiB) Viewed 2136 times

*or, if you like, nonsense based on moonshine - but if so, an equally-distributed, independently adjudicated, mathematically evaluated, neither panic-fanny nor rose-tinted nonsense/moonshine combo.

[Montreal Wanderer]

I'd have thought we'd be above Barnsley and closer to Reading and Hull. Still it looks promising moonshine.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I'd have thought we'd be above Barnsley and closer to Reading and Hull. Still it looks promising moonshine.

It's based on expected goals, or in older money, "fine margins". As we're regularly reminded, these could go against us, and even with the rosiest of specs I can't argue that we're statistically dominating games (although we've done better this week). But then, neither is anyone below us.

[knobpolisher]

Aye, during the trip back The Legendary Flanners and I settled on us needing nine more points. But it might be less, depending on whether or how many teams below us wake up.

The Hull result was a semi-blow, no more than that. Hull play Birmingham this weekend I shall be a tigers fan,
I have run the fixtures through my Commodore 64 and assuming Burton go for a Burton tomorrow evening it would mean that with our superior goal difference two wins and a draw would see us safe.Current bottom clubs (Sunderland are goosed) would require a minimum 4 wins and two draws out of nine matches. Birmingham have matches V's us wolves brizzle city and Fulham. Burton play us and Birmingham, the rest of their fixtures are horrendous.

Looking forward to next season already, is it too much to ask Lord that wet spam get relegated or is that greedy ?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Aye, during the trip back The Legendary Flanners and I settled on us needing nine more points. But it might be less, depending on whether or how many teams below us wake up.

Hull play Birmingham this weekend I shall be a tigers fan

Aye. We just need to finish above three. It's a pity we didn't quite scramble over the decaying bodies of Reading and Wednesday by beating them, but as long as we're fourth-bottom or higher it'll do fer me.

Hull might be alreet now, with Abel Hernandez back: he's been out since August until the last week but has now scored three in two games – only Jarrod Bowen has scored more than his 6 goals. Hernandez is out of contract at the end of the season and you've more chance of finding tits on a tennis ball than him signing a new deal; unless the ownership situation is sorted with surprisingly peaceful fluidity, you have to imagine Hull are one of the clubs to target finishing above next season.

[BWFC_Insane]

Aye, during the trip back The Legendary Flanners and I settled on us needing nine more points. But it might be less, depending on whether or how many teams below us wake up.

Hull play Birmingham this weekend I shall be a tigers fan

Aye. We just need to finish above three. It's a pity we didn't quite scramble over the decaying bodies of Reading and Wednesday by beating them, but as long as we're fourth-bottom or higher it'll do fer me.

Hull might be alreet now, with Abel Hernandez back: he's been out since August until the last week but has now scored three in two games – only Jarrod Bowen has scored more than his 6 goals. Hernandez is out of contract at the end of the season and you've more chance of finding tits on a tennis ball than him signing a new deal; unless the ownership situation is sorted with surprisingly peaceful fluidity, you have to imagine Hull are one of the clubs to target finishing above next season.

We should sign him if we can. Good player.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

We should sign him if we can. Good player.

I strongly suspect Abel Hernandez, a 27-year-old Uruguayan whose previous club was Palermo (alongside his compatriot Edinson Cavani) and cost then-Premier side Hull a club record £10m, does not see his future as being with a club attempting to dodge relegation to the third tier. Not Hull, not us, not anyone. You have to imagine he'll be getting the hell out of Dodge and wondering where that three years went.

[TANGODANCER]

From the month end (30th) we have a run of five games in a fortnight. Hope we manage to stay injury free for those...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

From the month end (30th) we have a run of five games in a fortnight. Hope we manage to stay injury free for those...

Aye. But it's interesting to note that we now do seem to have genuine options. Zach Clough has barely played. For the last two games Vela, Wheater and Little weren't even in the 18, while Robinson and Dervite were bench-bound. Reading's radio boys were wishing they had Karacan. Kirchhoff will play more than he has, but Derik didn't stink when he came in. Although Alnwick has played well recently, Howard is hardly a vast step down.

In fact, if we rule out the entire Wednesday starting XI (which is very unlikely to happen), we can still put together a team which, while it won't win a title, would know exactly what it had to do: Howard; Little, Dervite, Wheater, Robinson; Kirchhoff, Karacan; Morais, Clough, Noone; Wilbraham.

Meanwhile, the teams below us still struggle. You imagine that's not because they're weighed down with the agony of alternatives. They're asl likely as us to get injuries, but (I would guess – I wouldn't know Burton's squad fillers from a hole in the wall) perhaps less able to recover.

We host Birmingham on Easter Tuesday (I know that's not a thing) with an extra day's rest because we visit Leeds on Good Friday, they host Burton (and They Can't Both Win) on Saturday. We go to Barnsley at the end of a three-game week for both sides.

[TANGODANCER]

^^ All good points D.S.B, and the enigma being in the selection for greatest effect. Grealish is their wonderboy right now (I read he fans comments on him) and they're saying he's a world beater (well, they would of course, being Villa) . Looks disturbingly like Joey Barton to me, but hey ho. A man marker might be an option there...?

[BWFC_Insane]

From the month end (30th) we have a run of five games in a fortnight. Hope we manage to stay injury free for those...

Aye. But it's interesting to note that we now do seem to have genuine options. Zach Clough has barely played. For the last two games Vela, Wheater and Little weren't even in the 18, while Robinson and Dervite were bench-bound. Reading's radio boys were wishing they had Karacan. Kirchhoff will play more than he has, but Derik didn't stink when he came in. Although Alnwick has played well recently, Howard is hardly a vast step down.

In fact, if we rule out the entire Wednesday starting XI (which is very unlikely to happen), we can still put together a team which, while it won't win a title, would know exactly what it had to do: Howard; Little, Dervite, Wheater, Robinson; Kirchhoff, Karacan; Morais, Clough, Noone; Wilbraham.

Meanwhile, the teams below us still struggle. You imagine that's not because they're weighed down with the agony of alternatives. They're asl likely as us to get injuries, but (I would guess – I wouldn't know Burton's squad fillers from a hole in the wall) perhaps less able to recover.

We host Birmingham on Easter Tuesday (I know that's not a thing) with an extra day's rest because we visit Leeds on Good Friday, they host Burton (and They Can't Both Win) on Saturday. We go to Barnsley at the end of a three-game week for both sides.

The squad depth wise looks ok now, apart from a couple of areas.

Add Obasi in potentially too.

Quality wise.....?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

The squad depth wise looks ok now, apart from a couple of areas.

Add Obasi in potentially too.

Quality wise.....?

Well that shadow team wouldn't walk the league, but the point is, would it be better than the reserves of Barnsley, Burton and Brum? That's the only thing that matters, and even then it's built upon the extremely unlikely event of everyone's first XI contracting Ebola.

Anyways, I'm encouraged by Parky's increased rotation. He's frequently proved himself willing to change formation (to a back three last season, back and forth this season), and now he's showing he's willing to switch the personnel within. That could work well for us in a match-heavy spring; it could be the difference between us and those below, who may still be struggling to find an XI let alone an alternative.

And let's not forget that in the summer, there's another shake-up. We only have nine players who aren't playing for their futures: nobody except Le Fondre, Vela, Buckley, Noone, Little, Andy Taylor, Jake Turner, Stephen Darby and (sadly) Ben Amos is contracted beyond June, unless there are appearance-triggered extension clauses we don't know about. Ken has mentioned aiming to extend one or two contracts, presumably conditioned upon our survival – best guesses would be Ameobi and Beevers - but otherwise we wait and see who's done well and who's worth extending, perhaps compared to others who may be available. Suits me.