Will Evatt make Addick out of Adkins? Charlton (A), 7:45pm, Tuesday 28/09/21

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

So, we're agreed? Goals "for" good; goals "against" bad. I'm pleased we got there in the end.

Twas ever thus

[The_Gun]

This was going to be my first live game of the season, but I’m instead being forced to go to a client dinner. I’m not at all pleased by this.

I’ve not been able to watch our past few games, but from reading on here the loss of Isgrove from an already misfiring attack is concerning. If John’s fit again I’d certainly be bringing him in for his prowess going forward.

A win would be a huge morale booster, but I’m going to go 1-1.

[Worthy4England]

And if the one of ours that missed, they say we should score 9 times out of 10, we actually convert 3 out of 10, then it's not helping much.

For winning points, no. For analysing attacking effectiveness, yes.

I'm not xG's greatest fan myself – it's a stat, but a qualitative one - but Evatt takes note of it, and so do a great many professional football teams, so there's that. It's a gauge, and a useful one, more accurate than shots or shots on target.

Of course, the only stat that really matters for goal attempts is goals scored, which is a rather reductive analysis, but it gives simplicity. Last six: Zero, zero, zero, five, zero, zero.

I'm ok with it as an measure of theoretical attacking effectiveness. Where I worry about it, is when managers convince themselves that they've done everything right, because a stat like xG suggests we should be battering teams and near the top of the league and use it post match to explain to the unwashed that if only their charges had performed like an xG stat, things would be fine. It's what's known as a watermelon report (Green on the outside, red in the middle). On the outside it's all tracking positive, underlying that is zero, zero, zero, five, zero, zero.

I think we said when contemplating League 1, that it was just that little bit tighter. Little bit harder for us to score, little more likely they'll put one away rather than miss. Few more sides in League 1 will have bothered themselves with some of our videos now, Dapo won't be the "big secret" and if only Doyle/Sheehan can score outside of Dapo, then they'll be better marshalled. There are only a couple of teams showing worse 5/6 game form than us right now. There's only so long you can say "played great, got beat one nil" (I'm a long way from panicking yet ).

[BWFC_Insane]

And if the one of ours that missed, they say we should score 9 times out of 10, we actually convert 3 out of 10, then it's not helping much.

For winning points, no. For analysing attacking effectiveness, yes.

I'm not xG's greatest fan myself – it's a stat, but a qualitative one - but Evatt takes note of it, and so do a great many professional football teams, so there's that. It's a gauge, and a useful one, more accurate than shots or shots on target.

Of course, the only stat that really matters for goal attempts is goals scored, which is a rather reductive analysis, but it gives simplicity. Last six: Zero, zero, zero, five, zero, zero.

I'm ok with it as an measure of theoretical attacking effectiveness. Where I worry about it, is when managers convince themselves that they've done everything right, because a stat like xG suggests we should be battering teams and near the top of the league and use it post match to explain to the unwashed that if only their charges had performed like an xG stat, things would be fine. It's what's known as a watermelon report (Green on the outside, red in the middle). On the outside it's all tracking positive, underlying that is zero, zero, zero, five, zero, zero.

I think we said when contemplating League 1, that it was just that little bit tighter. Little bit harder for us to score, little more likely they'll put one away rather than miss. Few more sides in League 1 will have bothered themselves with some of our videos now, Dapo won't be the "big secret" and if only Doyle/Sheehan can score outside of Dapo, then they'll be better marshalled. There are only a couple of teams showing worse 5/6 game form than us right now. There's only so long you can say "played great, got beat one nil" (I'm a long way from panicking yet ).

I'm more or less with this though I'd say our own eyes tell us we've played well and that in most of our defeats we easily could have won. However bar Ipswich I'd say most of our wins are games on another day we could have lost.

And given even with 70% possession we don't look like romping away too often from teams it means games will be decided by the fine margins the concern has to be our ability to sit on the right side of those margins more often than not. We play good football and certainly create stuff, but for those not watching we're not Man Utd circa 1999 or the Arsenal invinvibles we create stuff but not waves of chances. And we concede probably roughly the same chances even though we dominate possession. So the trick is winning these narrow games. And in a way the possession maybe psychologically makes it harder as the opposition wait for their chances and we get frustrated. It comes down to me to the small details. Corners, free kicks, set pieces and defending. Because IE can do little about barren spells for Doyle. But we can defend better. And we can make far more of our attacking set pieces. If you take Rotherham their second goal was poor. If we didn't concede that then who knows? Equally we had enough corners and set plays to have made more chances and again that is the fine margins we're dealing with.

I've seen plenty of good looking teams that just didn't have quite enough at both ends of the pitch - Todd's 100 goals champions found the premiership relatively ok apart from an ability to grind out the 1-0/2-1 results consistently enough. That's the sort of difference a manager who really looked at those things would have made there. I think IE is learning and the club is in an incredibly positive place right now. And we'll be absolutely fine this season. But the longer term lesson is as we get higher up this league or even at some point into the championship that however well we play on the ball it won't be enough against better sides because what matters is what happens at either end of the pitch. The rest is immaterial.

[Bruce Rioja]

Have quite an uneasy feeling about this one. We'll be even less of a threat without Isgrove (unless (a) We actually give Kerchinga the ball, and (b) he comes good) and we tighten up in defence, and at the far post specifically.

I reckon Adkins will have this down as being one they can win and I think a point, if we get one, will be a very decent result..

[BWFC_Insane]

Have quite an uneasy feeling about this one. We'll be even less of a threat without Isgrove (unless (a) We actually give Kerchinga the ball, and (b) he comes good) and we tighten up in defence, and at the far post specifically.

I reckon Adkins will have this down as being one they can win and I think a point, if we get one, will be a very decent result..

Yeah I'm positive overall but a Tuesday night away at Charlton off the back of two defeats with our most industrious wide player missing does have all the hallmarks of - not being a great one!

[officer_dibble]

I’m feeling a battling point coming on personally. We’ll dig in and get a result I reckon.

[KeyserSoze]

We'll shit 'em 4-0.

UTW.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Feeling more confident since reading Iles' Evatt quotes this morning.

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/1 ... -kachunga/

In amongst some interesting quotes about xG and how defenders always get blamed while strikers don't the gaffer also let slip a fascinating phrase: "Elias has that final third detail" mentioning the nous and grace under pressure to set up two goals – Baptiste's opening-day equaliser and Sarce's winner at Lincoln.

Now, I think we'll miss Isgrove's industry, but it may be notable that Kachunga is the only Wanderer to register more than one assist this season, and from just 161 minutes (splayed across nine sub appearances). Izzy, for all his hard work and effort, has zero from 554 minutes.

Again, that's a stat in isolation - it could be that he's created 15 glorious chances spooned wide - but interesting, I think, that one of our default front three has neither goal nor assist so far (for the record, in the league Doyle is 3+1 and Dapo 4+0). I don't think many of us would have chosen to drop Izzy for Katcha, but there's an argument for saying it might give us a bit of nous up top that we have clearly been missing.

Equally, it might give us less solidity unless Katcha is suddenly phenomenally fit and aware of defensive duties. I'm not expecting a clean sheet from us, but I'm hopeful we can score, and if it comes to it, more than the oppo.

[Worthy4England]

In amongst some interesting quotes about xG and how defenders always get blamed while strikers don't

Where I worry about it, is when managers convince themselves that they've done everything right, because a stat like xG suggests we should be battering teams and near the top of the league and use it post match to explain to the unwashed that if only their charges had performed like an xG stat, things would be fine.

[BWFC_Insane]

I've noticed with Evatt that when we struggle he reverts to the horrible trope of 'we play football how it should be played'. Yet when we win he doesn't bring that up much at all.

I don't like it and wish he'd stop saying it. You can play football in many many ways and what matters end of the day is the result. I'm happy with how we are playing but other teams will counter that and we can't be set in our ways about it.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

“Adkins has made 18 changes to his line-up in the last three games”

I wonder if we’ll make more than two changes (Katcha a John) tonight. Another game coming up on Saturday…

[Worthy4England]

“Adkins has made 18 changes to his line-up in the last three games”

I wonder if we’ll make more than two changes (Katcha a John) tonight. Another game coming up on Saturday…

Was refreshing my memory of where Bakayoko was up to, but looks like "not until next month"....shame. Lad showed promise.

[LeverEnd]

I've noticed with Evatt that when we struggle he reverts to the horrible trope of 'we play football how it should be played'. Yet when we win he doesn't bring that up much at all.

I don't like it and wish he'd stop saying it. You can play football in many many ways and what matters end of the day is the result. I'm happy with how we are playing but other teams will counter that and we can't be set in our ways about it.

Yes the sanctimonious Wengerisms have started creeping back. I'm fine with him praising them in defeat when doing their utmost, as they have been. But I agree that the 'our football is prettier than yours' is a bit cringe. He's not done it like he did last season though to be fair.

[DJBlu]

Some seriously shitty weather on the way to the east.

Gonna be a miserable night hopefully made better by a Bolton win.

[officer_dibble]

4 changes, Baptiste for Johnston (surprised), John for Gordon, Lee for Sheehan () and Kachunga for Isgrove.

[nicholaldo]

And presumably a change to the 4-2-3-1 we played last season.

[brommers95]

The bench looking very weak attack wise, let's hope we're not trailing and having to rely on subs to change the game...

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[officer_dibble]

Yes, it’s a shame we haven’t got anyone in the youth team pushing for a bench spot as I doubt we need Johnston Brocky and Gordon on there.

[TANGODANCER]

Purely instinctive, but Jones is my banker bet to score tonight. 2-0 the Whites...