January 2022 Transfer Thread

Where fellow sufferers gather to share the pain, longing and unrequited transfer requests that make being a Wanderer what it is...

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:11 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:16 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:55 pm
officer_dibble wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:25 pm
Linked with buying Cole Stockton now, be ruing not going after him in the summer if we have to pay a fee.

https://t.co/bR0EoSju3H
We tried to sign him in the summer. 100%. Whether he turned us down or it was down to money I wonder if this is just a hold over story from then or whether there is genuinely a fresh effort to sign him?

Obviously the sort we need he’s had a superb season. Holds it up well. Be delighted with him though was underwhelmed in the summer with the idea.
It might be agent talk. Lad's doing surprisingly well but I'd be underwhelmed if we signed him. At ours last season he was the slowest striker I've seen since Trevor Morgan. That would allow teams to push right up and condense space - unless our brains trust has some other idea (high width?) to avert that.
Holds the ball up and scores different goals. Ploughing a lone furrow for Morecambe but I think he’d add a different dimension to our play. He’s not quick for sure. But not everyone has to be.

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by LeverEnd » Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:13 pm

It the ball sticks to him and he's got the Del and Dapo double act arrowing in either side of him his pace won't matter so much.
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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by LeverEnd » Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:14 pm

Never heard of him though so not necessarily advocating signing.him (Ian, if you're reading).
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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:15 pm

The_Gun wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:10 pm
Why would Morecambe sell to a divisional rival half way through the season for anything less than £1m? They’d be weakening themselves and increasing their risk of relegation.

On our end, why would we pay a fee of that size for a player who’ll be 28 in March? Wouldn’t fit at all with our sustainable ethos.
Yeah it sounds a bit suspect. For that reason. He’d be an interesting addition as a striker but just doesn’t to me sound like a player we’d blow our money on at this stage. Though if he’s the striker Evatt wants for next season and we can sign him in January maybe it makes sense then.

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by brommers95 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:51 pm

The_Gun wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:10 pm
Why would Morecambe sell to a divisional rival half way through the season for anything less than £1m? They’d be weakening themselves and increasing their risk of relegation.

On our end, why would we pay a fee of that size for a player who’ll be 28 in March? Wouldn’t fit at all with our sustainable ethos.
My thoughts exactly. The impression I get is *if* we have any money available to spend on transfer fees, we'll be aiming for players in the 20-25 age range. This Stockton rumour doesn't seem to fit for me.

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:01 pm

The only way I can imagine it working conceptually is if there's some £-per-KPI metric and they think he's worth it - goalscorers worth their weight in gold, etc and so on. But it's not like we're financially dependent on promotion. Stockton doesn't fit the development ideal, the resale-potential fiscal model – and for me the player doesn't suit our style, even if we were in for him in summer (as a free agent).

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:20 pm

Bit more on Dan Crowley.

Having left Birminghamm, he had a trial with Swansea this summer but it came to nowt.

Then Cheltenham originally passed on him after a trial (Mike Duff: "the agent has moved the posts a little bit", Crowley: “I was gutted about not signing here because it’s a good set of lads, a good staff, you don’t come around that a lot in football"), so he went to Gillingham on trial.

Likes a crowd ("I like to feed off the crowd, get the buzz in the stadium, get the fans on their feet, that’s what I enjoy doing – that’s why I play football.”).

Likes God (“I just want to thank God for getting me here, He has been with me all the way and He has brought me to Cheltenham. Stuff happens in football, it doesn’t go easy, I just have to keep my faith.")

Back when he was in Holland, he gave a rather confident interview saying “I do massively believe in myself, I think I can be one of the best No.10s in Europe.

Last week, Duff was asked whether he would extend the deal: "They are conversations I'll have with him before I have them with you. He has been good and I said it on Saturday. He's only been here eight weeks. He signed a three-month deal so we'll pick it up then, but he's been good for us and we've been good for him, so it's been a good fit, so far." Admitted he hasn't started negotiations yet.

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:46 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:01 pm
The only way I can imagine it working conceptually is if there's some £-per-KPI metric and they think he's worth it - goalscorers worth their weight in gold, etc and so on. But it's not like we're financially dependent on promotion. Stockton doesn't fit the development ideal, the resale-potential fiscal model – and for me the player doesn't suit our style, even if we were in for him in summer (as a free agent).
Not sure on this style thing. He’s a target who scores goals. Is that not exactly what Evatt wants? People moan about Doyle because it rarely sticks and he’s not in goal scoring form. Stockton is that so no idea why he’d not fit what Evatt wants. Given we already tried one assumes Evatt is keen.

I can’t see it happening but we need proper presence up front and that’s the type needed. We’ve enough who do other things. Someone to get on the end of crosses would be good.

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:10 pm

I get that, and I agree; I'd love someone up top who could hold it like Drogba and head it like Shearer. Hell, I've even advocated that we could do worse than Madine, if he were free.

But I'd say our style - which is to a certain extent a mutable, adaptable thing, but always has some hallmarks - is mainly about moving the ball about to find space.

That style is in danger of being utterly compromised if we employ a centre-forward whose total lack of pace allows our opponents to compress the game by 10 or 15 yards – and let's be clear, unless he was carrying an injury at our place or for some reason had lined up in lead-filled socks, Stockton is a ponderous moose.

Maybe I'm underestimating him. I haven't watched much Morecambe this season, thank God; what I saw of them last term was a minimum-possession team who largely profited off set pieces. Doesn't sound a perfect fit stylistically - let alone the fact he'd cost a fee we'll never recoup. But if I'm wrong, he comes and we excel, I'd be happy.

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:43 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:10 pm
I get that, and I agree; I'd love someone up top who could hold it like Drogba and head it like Shearer. Hell, I've even advocated that we could do worse than Madine, if he were free.

But I'd say our style - which is to a certain extent a mutable, adaptable thing, but always has some hallmarks - is mainly about moving the ball about to find space.

That style is in danger of being utterly compromised if we employ a centre-forward whose total lack of pace allows our opponents to compress the game by 10 or 15 yards – and let's be clear, unless he was carrying an injury at our place or for some reason had lined up in lead-filled socks, Stockton is a ponderous moose.

Maybe I'm underestimating him. I haven't watched much Morecambe this season, thank God; what I saw of them last term was a minimum-possession team who largely profited off set pieces. Doesn't sound a perfect fit stylistically - let alone the fact he'd cost a fee we'll never recoup. But if I'm wrong, he comes and we excel, I'd be happy.
Seen him a bit this season and I think your description is unfair. He’s a clever footballer. He would add to our play with hold up play and he’s decent with his feet. But also get on the end of crosses into the box.

I don’t think it compromises the style rather than adds to it. He’s the sort of striker we need. We have enough who run channels and play in to out. Heck Doyle does that. But Stockton can do that to an extent anyway but offers the presence down the middle we lack and I think would improve us considerably especially in home games where we dominate possession,

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:05 pm

OK. As I say I haven't seen much of him and am quite possibly being unfair on a small-sample basis. Certainly seems to be scoring better this season (13 in 18) than his previous attempts at this level (5 in 53).

Still think the financial logistics of it make it unlikely, but as I say, if it happens and works then I'll be happy.

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by officer_dibble » Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:18 pm

He banged one in from the halfway line the other day! He’s probably developed his game…they are definitely a different side under new management. Score a lot, concede a lot!

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:07 pm

officer_dibble wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:18 pm
He banged one in from the halfway line the other day! He’s probably developed his game…they are definitely a different side under new management. Score a lot, concede a lot!
He did indeed. I've had a look at his goal reel and he looks a decent finisher now his dander's up. Not immobile (but also not Immobile).

What I would still say is that I didn't see him as part of any sweeping moves, which Doyler is capable of and which I would expect Evatt to want - that linking play as part of creativity, not just as a chest to bounce balls off - but again, if he's scoring enough goals to make a team win, you can adjust to that.

EDIT also had a look at some passing stats, us and Morecambe, this season and last.

This season, Morecambe have the division’s fifth-lowest possession (43.4%; we’re second to McDons with 59.3%) and the fourth-lowest pass accuracy (66%, we’re second to McDons with 80.7%), so they’re not exactly a butterfly emerging from last year’s caterpillar.

They are, however, only 14th for aerial duels won per game (22.2; we’re bottom with 15.3) so they’re either reducing their reliance or having their effectiveness reduced for them by better teams at this level.

Last year they had D4’s lowest possession average (43.7%, so more than they’ve got this time), second-lowest pass accuracy (57.4%) and seventh-highest number of aerial duels won per game (30.2).

Last season, 26.4% of their passes were long (per WhoScored's definition - over 25 yards I think); this season, it’s a slightly lower 25.8%. For comparison, our long-ball percentage last season was 18.8%, which this time is down to 14.4%.

While we’re here, it’s also perhaps notable that our “long ball” success rate this season is impressive: 34.1 accurate per game compared to 34.0 inaccurate, a more-than-half ratio only matched by McDons, which suggests that both they and we are spreading the play – think Santos and Aimson, plus recently Thomason - rather than whacking the ball into space.

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Nov 30, 2021 1:07 pm

LUTON
Transfermarkt lists every single member of Luton’s squad bar Carlos Mendes as out of contract in summer. I suspect that's a website glitch – promising young CB/RB/DM Gabe Osho signed a new contract in August, which I doubt was a year – but Luton didn't reveal the contract length then, nor did they when they signed Reece Burke (when Hull were forced to let him ago amid claims his contract extension would have triggered him up to £10,000 per week).

So we're in the dark a bit here, although obviously the players, and perhaps more pertinently their agents, will know when they're lapsing.

Worth noting that Luton have built very well. After five years in non-league and four in the bottom division, they shot straight through the third tier in 2018/19 as champions, then finished 19th and last season 12th. They haven’t spent £daft, either. I suspect they may have a lot of players essentially on year-to-year contracts, which makes them less of a financial risk but easier to move along when surplus.

They also don’t have many spare players who fit the Goldilocks profile – not too old to resell, not too young to be clueless, with some decent experience at third tier at least if not second-tier. But they’re gradually rejuvenating their squad so they may squeeze out a couple of lads you could file under “experienced” rather than “wizened”.

Dan Potts (left-back, 27) – West Ham graduate (son of ex-Hammer Steve Potts) joined Luton back in 2015 and has been fairly regular since; in all, he’s played 62 Champo and 29 L1 games. Decent in the air, so he’s also covered at centre-back, but this season he’s only played twice as Amari’i Bell has been first-choice left-back; once he was hooked (injured) at half-time, the other time - struggling at left wing-back - he was subbed on 55 minutes. Signed an extension in May, but again the club didn't say how long for.

Luke Berry (midfielder, 29) – has scored 4 and made 2 in just 7 games this season, which is more than he usually manages. Wasn’t expected to get as much game-time this season but has been described as “perhaps the most intelligent player” with “a knack for arriving bang on time and contributing with important goals”, while helping Luton “take control of the game and get the ball on the ground” and “a good presser”. He's played 52 third-tier and 59 second-tier games all told and signed a new contract in summer 2020.

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:22 pm

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/1 ... -stockton/

Evatt on Stockton:
Cole is a player we are aware of and he’s a Morecambe player so I don’t want to go into much more detail but it’s obvious he has had a very good season. He was good for them last season in League Two as well.

For now, he isn’t one we’re looking to do, and that’s the truth. He is doing very well for Morecambe and I think we should pay them the respect they are due but he’s definitely improving and that is very good for him.
Evatt on January:
We have a very defined idea of what we want in January. A Bolton Wanderers player looks ‘this way’ and is able to do ‘this’. There are lots of people linking us with different people and we know who we want. All that hard work has been done now and it is down to the more difficult conversations to see whether it is achievable or not.

The board has backed me from day one and they know I am respectful of their money. We will try and do things the right way but there is money available to spend. We will try and get it right, as we did do last January.

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:18 am

ACCRINGTON
Twentysomethings with lapsing contracts:

Dion Charles (26, forward) - Despite being Preston-born, the recent Norn Iron call-up came through Blackpool’s ranks; made the bench in 2013-14, just after Evatt left. Bounced around north-west non-league, usually played out wide until Southport stuck him up top; he scored 14 goals in 2018/19 and Accy signed him in August 2019. Scored 8 third-tier goals in his first season then 19 last season (from 38 games). He put his success down to analysis: "The key to the improvement in my game is from doing bits of research on teams and players I'm playing against, and figuring out how best to exploit their weaknesses. I use that to try and arrive in the box and get on the end of crosses more.” It worked - only eight L1 strikers had mores shots per 90 minutes last season than his 2.8, and they all sent more off-target than his 0.9. Stoke sniffed in summer but Accy asked £2m. Refusing to sign a new contract, Charles has been exiled from the squad since early September. Accy boss Jono Coleman last week: “"If someone comes in with the right bid for him of course he'll go. It's got to be right for him as well, he doesn't have to just go to the first club that comes for him.” Forest have been linked but it might be worth noting that he’s never played for a club outside the Lancashire borders except Halifax, which is downwind.

Colby Bishop (25, forward) - Accy's No.9 has scored 24 in 87 third-tier games, but they have a year's extension option, so you imagine they'll activate that.

Matt Butcher (24, midfield) - not an EastEnders character, but definitely southern: Pompey-born and came through Bournemouth academy. Got teenage EFL experience on loan at Yeovil. Joined Accy in summer 2020 on a two-year deal, and played 33 third-tier games last year; this year he’s played 14 and scored 4. Pompey sniffed round him in summer. 6ft 2in, so that’s nice if you fear dwarves.

Stephen Sama (28, centre-back) - 6ft2, Cameroon-born but former Germany U20 international who spent seven years in the Dortmund and Liverpool academies. Spent his grown-up years in Germany and Holland (top tier) before moving to Accy in Sep 2020.

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Dec 05, 2021 7:21 pm

Change of scene with FOREST GREEN, the pass-heavy back-three side currently topping the fourth tier. Again, they seem to have a lot of players out of contract in summer, so while those players may be tempted to stay, they may also have their heads turned if, say, a former Premier League club with a nice stadium started sniffin' around.

Matty Stevens (23. centre-forward)
Former title-winning amateur boxer as a kid, he now lands his punches in a different ring: he’s scored 14 in 23 for FGR this year. Signed from Peterborough in 2019 on a three-year deal which would run out this summer; I’ve seen one vague report that he signed a year’s extension, but nothing on the FGR site and more than a few fan tweets asking him to extend. Described as “fast, compact and agile” with good movement and excellent control, but I guess the worry is if this is a flash-in-the-pan season (he’d scored 8 in 67 fourth-tier games before this season), or if he could move it up a level (or two?).

Nicky Cadden (25, LWB/LW)
Signed (from Morton on a free) as a winger, “Tricky Nicky” has been converted to wingback in FGR’s back-three formation. Suits him: he’s currently joint ninth in the fourth tier for assists (4; he got 8 last season) and third for key passes (ie chance-creating would-be assists). He tops the division for crosses and is also capable of scoring from direct free-kicks - useful to have a lefty with that threat. Generally tidy in possession too, with 70.1% pass accuracy (last season 72.9%). And he’s adding more goals - 5 already this season, up from 4 last season.

Dom Bernard (24, RCB/DM/RWB)
Local lad came home in 2019 after graduating through Birmingham academy. Extended contract last March but only for a year. Shares an agent with Declan John. Typically intelligent FGR footballer who can play in a number of positions - on the right of their back three, at right wingback or in defensive midfield. Hard-running, which would please Evatt, and strong in the air, which we need. Again, though, untested above D4.

Luke McGee (26, GK)
6ft 4in Tottenham product has already played 83 third-tier games for Peterborough and Pompey, whom he left in summer 2020, declining to extend his contract when the Covid-halted season restarted, the better to get a full-time job somewhere else. Landed at FGR and was player of the month in October 2021, which says something: not often a keeper gets the gong when you’re top of the league.

Kane Wilson (21, RWB)
You don’t need to listen to a footling idiot like me when an expert like Brommers has analysed him https://bwfcanalysis.wordpress.com/2021 ... ne-wilson/ but I will add that his key passes have shot up this season - more than doubling to 1.8 per game from 0.8 last season and 0.7 the season before, at then-D3 Tranmere – and that he shares a (large) agency with Izzy and Bakayoko.

Ebou Adams (25, DMC/MC)
Busy Gambian who breaks up play (2.9 tackles per game is top-eight for D4 midfielders with 10+ games) but can also bomb on if necessary. His games in 2019/20 triggered a one-year extension atop the year he had left; no sign of an extension since.

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by TonyDomingos » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:53 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Dec 05, 2021 7:21 pm
Change of scene with FOREST GREEN, the pass-heavy back-three side currently topping the fourth tier. Again, they seem to have a lot of players out of contract in summer, so while those players may be tempted to stay, they may also have their heads turned if, say, a former Premier League club with a nice stadium started sniffin' around.

Matty Stevens (23. centre-forward)
Former title-winning amateur boxer as a kid, he now lands his punches in a different ring: he’s scored 14 in 23 for FGR this year. Signed from Peterborough in 2019 on a three-year deal which would run out this summer; I’ve seen one vague report that he signed a year’s extension, but nothing on the FGR site and more than a few fan tweets asking him to extend. Described as “fast, compact and agile” with good movement and excellent control, but I guess the worry is if this is a flash-in-the-pan season (he’d scored 8 in 67 fourth-tier games before this season), or if he could move it up a level (or two?).

Nicky Cadden (25, LWB/LW)
Signed (from Morton on a free) as a winger, “Tricky Nicky” has been converted to wingback in FGR’s back-three formation. Suits him: he’s currently joint ninth in the fourth tier for assists (4; he got 8 last season) and third for key passes (ie chance-creating would-be assists). He tops the division for crosses and is also capable of scoring from direct free-kicks - useful to have a lefty with that threat. Generally tidy in possession too, with 70.1% pass accuracy (last season 72.9%). And he’s adding more goals - 5 already this season, up from 4 last season.

Dom Bernard (24, RCB/DM/RWB)
Local lad came home in 2019 after graduating through Birmingham academy. Extended contract last March but only for a year. Shares an agent with Declan John. Typically intelligent FGR footballer who can play in a number of positions - on the right of their back three, at right wingback or in defensive midfield. Hard-running, which would please Evatt, and strong in the air, which we need. Again, though, untested above D4.

Luke McGee (26, GK)
6ft 4in Tottenham product has already played 83 third-tier games for Peterborough and Pompey, whom he left in summer 2020, declining to extend his contract when the Covid-halted season restarted, the better to get a full-time job somewhere else. Landed at FGR and was player of the month in October 2021, which says something: not often a keeper gets the gong when you’re top of the league.

Kane Wilson (21, RWB)
You don’t need to listen to a footling idiot like me when an expert like Brommers has analysed him https://bwfcanalysis.wordpress.com/2021 ... ne-wilson/ but I will add that his key passes have shot up this season - more than doubling to 1.8 per game from 0.8 last season and 0.7 the season before, at then-D3 Tranmere – and that he shares a (large) agency with Izzy and Bakayoko.

Ebou Adams (25, DMC/MC)
Busy Gambian who breaks up play (2.9 tackles per game is top-eight for D4 midfielders with 10+ games) but can also bomb on if necessary. His games in 2019/20 triggered a one-year extension atop the year he had left; no sign of an extension since.

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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by TANGODANCER » Tue Dec 07, 2021 3:12 pm

A question that's relevant but asked in all ignorance of the topic: On the wild chance we might actually gain promotion, unlikely as that seems,will that mean that the players will command a rise in wages that will make a sufficient dent in club finances as to what they are now or are there financial benefits from elsewhere (outside of season ticket sales )that are beneficial from promotion ?
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Re: January 2022 Transfer Thread

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:27 pm

TANGODANCER wrote:
Tue Dec 07, 2021 3:12 pm
A question that's relevant but asked in all ignorance of the topic: On the wild chance we might actually gain promotion, unlikely as that seems,will that mean that the players will command a rise in wages that will make a sufficient dent in club finances as to what they are now or are there financial benefits from elsewhere (outside of season ticket sales )that are beneficial from promotion?
Promotions always bring an increase in incoming finances; they also usually (but not always) mean an increase in outgoings – right down to needing more bar staff for a 15k crowd than a 10k crowd, and more pies on order, etc.

Some but by no means all contracts will have promotion bonuses, wage-increase clauses or both, just as some (but fewer) contracts will have relegation wage-reduction clauses (or automatic release, though these tend to be requested by the player rather than the club). Players whose wages do not rise contractually will expect their agent to have a word with the club, and you often get new contracts and/or extensions after promotion.

Purely from good financial practice, you would expect the (projected) increased income to be larger than the increased expenditure, or your club is badly-run. I don't think our club is badly run. It's worth noting, though, that many clubs in the second tier *are* badly run by that simple, unarguable thumb-rule of wages to turnover (not even, you note, profit). In 2018/19, Reading's wage bill was 194% of turnover. Obviously, that changed in 2019/20: it rose to 211%. As football-finance twitterer Swiss Ramble noted, they're very far from alone in that hellhouse division.
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