Snog, Marry, Avoid: Summer 2023 Transfer Window

[BWFC_Insane]

That's why I asked, because I think you might be disappointed. I reckon we're morely likely to get Bradley/Iredale levels of delivery from wide, than what you're looking for out of 343...

I still reckon he'll look to add in central MF, in the Lee/Shortire area. I'd like us to deliver more variety from wide and I think there's two areas - he who delivers it and he who gets on the end of it, I think if we manage to increase the latter, the former would present as less of a problem.

Comes back to the Barnsley game for me. How do we create in games like that? Without better delivery out wide you are asking for a lot to open them up through the middle.

And for us the issue is that an all round wing back who is good at everything probably at our level won’t have that sort of delivery. So for me I’m happy with that but we maybe need a winger who can offer something else either in that system especially at home or in a City style system where you have 3 at the back without wing backs.

[Worthy4England]

I think Evatt spoke often about the "problem," so knows it's a thing...be interesting to see how he tries to crack it.

[GhostoftheBok]

Dabo and Beadle are both good players. They would be good signings on paper.

Saying that, eeeeeeeeeeehhhhhhhh.

Dabo is the right type, has been really good at this level and has experience of a promotion. However, he's had injuries rule him out for at least 1/3 of games in each of the past 4 seasons. I think there are better options in the market, but if we can keep him fit he will be good for us. Also, I always want to call him "Frankety", with an r, so that loses him points as I'll embarrass myself at some point with that.

Beadle is a good player. No doubt about it. However, this is the best market for keepers we've seen under Evatt and if we end up with a kid on loan and a journeyman (even if the kid is really good) we'll have wasted it. Brighton want Beadle playing regular football, so if he's our target he's in as #1 - which immediately rules out all the better free agents this summer.

If we see Beadle and a proper goalkeeper arrive, praise the gods etc. If we sign Beadle and a cheap back-up option it's purely because Evatt refuses to spend money on that position, not because there wasn't another option available.

Again, Beadle is a terrific young player and with us now protecting goalkeepers properly I think he'd do well. I have watched him live a few times (including in a bizarre PL2 game against Blackburn) and he's a proper player. Plus he must be about 9'17" tall, so that's handy.

[GhostoftheBok]

Comes back to the Barnsley game for me. How do we create in games like that? Without better delivery out wide you are asking for a lot to open them up through the middle.

And for us the issue is that an all round wing back who is good at everything probably at our level won’t have that sort of delivery. So for me I’m happy with that but we maybe need a winger who can offer something else either in that system especially at home or in a City style system where you have 3 at the back without wing backs.

Barnsley wasn't a delivery issue, it was a press issue. If you can get through their press they are wide open, but we couldn't.

The delivery issues have come against the low block, "sit back and annoy them" sides.

You create against Barnsley by baiting the press with bravery in possession and then either running the ball, passing through them or going direct into an outball.

A ball playing centre half who can step into midfield would have helped us more against Barnsley than a wingback who can cross.

[GhostoftheBok]

Iles has us having enquired about Ollie Norburn at Posh.

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/2 ... e-norburn/

[The_Gun]

Is Norburn any good? I can't really recall noticing him when we played Posh this season.

Bolton born and adds physicality and experience in the middle of the park, so makes some sense on paper. Paying a transfer fee for a 30 year old doesn't align quite as well with our sustainability drive, though.

[BWFC_Insane]

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/2 ... otion-aim/

“We were disappointed that we lost to Barnsley, but when we look back and reflect, we're very happy with our progress,” she said. “Next season, I want us to have automatic promotion – that is our aim

No messing here from Sharon. That's clear cut. So I suspect it reflects on the transfer window priorities. If we have to spend money to get experienced proven players in to meet that aim then so be it.

[GhostoftheBok]

Is Norburn any good? I can't really recall noticing him when we played Posh this season.

Bolton born and adds physicality and experience in the middle of the park, so makes some sense on paper. Paying a transfer fee for a 30 year old doesn't align quite as well with our sustainability drive, though.

I feel like he was better for Shrews than Posh, but then he was a level up. Leadership, swashbuckling in midfield and the ability to push through a press. Wouldn't be my first choice, but I could see it.

Nixon also has us in for Toby Savin at Accy. I think that would be shrewd. Very young and over 100 appearances. Al has us offering "an unusual deal" where we don't pay them until later. Possibly we need the bond money to land, but want him in for preseason.

[GhostoftheBok]

No messing here from Sharon. That's clear cut. So I suspect it reflects on the transfer window priorities. If we have to spend money to get experienced proven players in to meet that aim then so be it.

Could well be that way, yeah. Players who know their way around this league and have some experience a division up (like Dabo and Norburn) fit the bill. Also gives us some of the experience to stay up if we make it.

[BWFC_Insane]

Is Norburn any good? I can't really recall noticing him when we played Posh this season.

Bolton born and adds physicality and experience in the middle of the park, so makes some sense on paper. Paying a transfer fee for a 30 year old doesn't align quite as well with our sustainability drive, though.

I feel like he was better for Shrews than Posh, but then he was a level up. Leadership, swashbuckling in midfield and the ability to push through a press. Wouldn't be my first choice, but I could see it.

Nixon also has us in for Toby Savin at Accy. I think that would be shrewd. Very young and over 100 appearances. Al has us offering "an unusual deal" where we don't pay them until later. Possibly we need the bond money to land, but want him in for preseason.

I'm concerned on the two goalkeepers. I'm with DSB - this is such a critical position it can really dictate a number of league places - you could with a great keeper IMHO be 6 or more places higher than with an average one.

And an 18 year old from Brighton with no record and Accrington's reserve - its just risky. People will cite Trafford but that worked out. Crellin did not.

I'm concerned that we aren't going out and buying an established keeper - OR loaning one a few years on with more games under their belt.

It would be an oversight for me to take a big risk in that position.

[The_Gun]

You know we need two keepers right, Insano?

[GhostoftheBok]

I'm concerned on the two goalkeepers. I'm with DSB - this is such a critical position it can really dictate a number of league places - you could with a great keeper IMHO be 6 or more places higher than with an average one.

And an 18 year old from Brighton with no record and Accrington's reserve - its just risky. People will cite Trafford but that worked out. Crellin did not.

I'm concerned that we aren't going out and buying an established keeper - OR loaning one a few years on with more games under their belt.

It would be an oversight for me to take a big risk in that position.

We can debate the mix, certainly; but if someone offered me Savin on a 4 year deal I'd take that very easily. He's a great investment for any League One side. Young, good experience and on the cheap after a bust-up and relegation.

I don't think he's the ideal "type" for how Evatt likes to play and I don't think him and a kid is necessarily the best mix; but Savin taken in isolation as a League One signing? Yeah, sure.

[Worthy4England]

As The Gun has mentioned, anyone else a bit bemused be the non-announcement of Bod?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Linked with keeper + 5 minutes spare = peep at data

Of the 34 third-tier goalkeepers listed at FBref, Savin had the seventh-worst shot-save percentage (Traf was third-best)

Reductive or instructive? You decide

[GhostoftheBok]

Linked with keeper + 5 minutes spare = peep at data

Of the 34 third-tier goalkeepers listed at FBref, Savin had the seventh-worst shot-save percentage (Traf was third-best)

Reductive or instructive? You decide

Slightly reductive, I think, though keepers are not really my area. I had a conversation about this some time ago, with someone who knows more than I do about assessing goalkeepers.

When Accy concede it tends to be from high XG positions, because their low block means teams work around them and then try to crash the box around the penalty spot. Then when they concede they then open up and get countered on which again gives high XG chances. When teams shoot from outside the box they tend to miss, so it doesn't go down on the save percentage. That means that when keepers at Accy face shots on target they're fighting a bit of an uphill battle. They tend not to give up a lot of low XG shots on target inside the box, because they pack the area and get blocks in.

If you look at Traf's save percentage at Accy it was low 50s, with Savin about 10 points higher around the 63% mark. Savin is very, very consistent at that level, but it's due to often facing higher XG shots than a lot of rivals. Traf undoubtedly had a bad time at Accy, but I'd say not enough to explain a 20-25 point swing when he came to us - you're probably seeing that chance quality difference.

Now this conversation was in the context of Trafford, not Savin. However, the same guy does the analysis for one of the elite clubs who reportedly tracked Savin so I'm assuming that A - It's correct and B - Savin must have looked pretty good in the data for them to bother doing a deep dive.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Interesting.

[Spartan2]

My biggest concern is that evatt can only "see" defenders. His defence signings have been exceptional. His record for other players is meh. And Trafford aside I worry he can't see decent keepers are all.

[GhostoftheBok]

Interesting.

Like I say, not my work, so I can't claim to "know" any of that; but the massive uptick from Trafford might give us reason for hope if Savin arrives.

[GhostoftheBok]

My biggest concern is that evatt can only "see" defenders. His defence signings have been exceptional. His record for other players is meh. And Trafford aside I worry he can't see decent keepers are all.

I find it hard to agree there.

He (and, importantly, Markham) picked Sheehan and Morley out of League Two for the midfield. He picked up Dempsey, who I think we now all accept is a good player at this level.

Dapo was Dapo. Charles is our top scorer in a couple of decades. We all like Dad Bod, as far as I can tell.

Sadlier's face doesn't fit and John is a strop, but the lads we have on the books generally look very good for League One and the money we've spent.

[Spartan2]

My biggest concern is that evatt can only "see" defenders. His defence signings have been exceptional. His record for other players is meh. And Trafford aside I worry he can't see decent keepers are all.

I find it hard to agree there.

He (and, importantly, Markham) picked Sheehan and Morley out of League Two for the midfield. He picked up Dempsey, who I think we now all accept is a good player at this level.

Dapo was Dapo. Charles is our top scorer in a couple of decades. We all like Dad Bod, as far as I can tell.

Sadlier's face doesn't fit and John is a strop, but the lads we have on the books generally look very good for League One and the money we've spent.

Well I disagree. Charles like Doyle was a proven scorer at the level we signed him for, its not difficult to "see" them. Similarly Dempsey was well regarded at this level and has for me completely flopped. I don't agree he's a good player at all, he's put in a few superb performances granted but they're few and far between.

I just think if he picks a defender he's very likely to be exceptional, if he picks anyone else it's pot luck whether they're any good.