That Manager Of The Month Fallacy - Is It True?

[KeeeeeeeBaaaaaaab]

Lack of sleep and without anything better to do, I got thinking about how the slump we're in has coincided with Beano winning Manager of The Month. I know there's been a lot said about the MotM curse being a fallacy, but I decided to look at the numbers:

Before November - Coyle's PPG was 1.2
During November - Coyle's PPG was 2.2
Since November - Coyle's PPG is 1 (had Ronald Zubar not delivered that great cross for Welbeck, it'd have been 0.8 )

So, November was more than extraordinary, but since then it suggests that there has been a major dip in form from the day he won the redundant (for Coyle) bottle of champers.

yes, we can take into consideration that we played Chelsea and Man city, and we gift wrapped our annual six points to MediawankfestPool in this time, but is it a coincidence? Or is it a case of ignoring the ramblings of Old Pinky Liberal?

Edit: fecking smileys. I want to write an 8 and close the fecking brackets. Not make it look like a fecking child's text message

[thebish]

you win manager of the month if you have an extraordinarily good month - ie - wayyyyy better than average. hence - usually - the following month you won't do as well - you will be back to merely ordinary - unless you have two extraordinary months in a row.. but the more that happens - it would cease to be extraordinary, wouldn't it?

[KeeeeeeeBaaaaaaab]

But would .8ppg over the past two months have been reverting to ordinary? Would 1? It's not like we reverted back to that 1.2ppg at the start of the season.

[thebish]

But would .8ppg over the past two months have been reverting to ordinary? Would 1? It's not like we reverted back to that 1.2ppg at the start of the season.

1 was Coyles average for the previous season...

anyway - I dunno - all I know is that in the vast majority of cases you will drop in form after a MoM month - simply because you are rewarded for extraordinary success - hence - the "curse"

whether it is the norm to drop down to below your average performance - I don't know (though my guess would be not) - and to prove it, you'd have to show a lot more data than the 3 months you have! Then you'd have to find a way of factoring in the relative ease of point-winning of the actual fixtures on offer in those particular months - plus, maybe other factors (injuries... Asia Cup call-ups) - all of which would confuse the picture and make a causal conclusion very difficult to draw..

[seanworth]

I hate Manager of the Month.

[Beefheart]

It's not a curse, its just statistics. Deviation from the mean and all that.

If you perform above expectations one month, or infact better than any other team in the league, any subsequent month would be seen as a disappointment or 'curse' unless you were to win it again.

[thebish]

It's not a curse, its just statistics. Deviation from the mean and all that.

If you perform above expectations one month, or infact better than any other team in the league, any subsequent month would be seen as a disappointment or 'curse' unless you were to win it again.

I think KB understands that.

he is asking whether after MOM award you don't simply deviate to the mean - but you usually drop well below the mean the following month.

to prove such a causal link would be very tricky.

[BWFC_Insane]

I think a tricky (in terms of games) and congested fixture list had more to do with it.

To be honest if we manage 1ppg between now and the end of the season that will be ok.

Currently I can't see us doing much better!

[thebish]

in february 2011 - we are averaging 3ppg - which is cracking form!

[seanworth]

in february 2011 - we are averaging 3ppg - which is cracking form!

Bet it still won't please everyone though.

[thebish]

in february 2011 - we are averaging 3ppg - which is cracking form!

Bet it still won't please everyone though.

in february we are undefeated - have a 100% win rate - have won all our games at home and all our games away - have 100% clean sheet record and and average of 3ppg..

Coyle OUT!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

More stats on this

[KeeeeeeeBaaaaaaab]

It's not a curse, its just statistics. Deviation from the mean and all that.

If you perform above expectations one month, or infact better than any other team in the league, any subsequent month would be seen as a disappointment or 'curse' unless you were to win it again.

I think KB understands that.

he is asking whether after MOM award you don't simply deviate to the mean - but you usually drop well below the mean the following month.

to prove such a causal link would be very tricky.

No, I'm not. I'm well aware of the facts. The question is being asked in this particular case of Coyle dropping below even the "ordiinary" before November. I've identified that November was way above ordinary. I just wanted to see how the stats backed up how much of a downturn from the ordinary the aftermath of the MotM month was. Turns out, on the basis of the ordinary before the MotM, it's 20%.

[thebish]

It's not a curse, its just statistics. Deviation from the mean and all that.

If you perform above expectations one month, or infact better than any other team in the league, any subsequent month would be seen as a disappointment or 'curse' unless you were to win it again.

I think KB understands that.

he is asking whether after MOM award you don't simply deviate to the mean - but you usually drop well below the mean the following month.

to prove such a causal link would be very tricky.

No, I'm not. I'm well aware of the facts. The question is being asked in this particular case of Coyle dropping below even the "ordiinary" before November. I've identified that November was way above ordinary. I just wanted to see how the stats backed up how much of a downturn from the ordinary the aftermath of the MotM month was. Turns out, on the basis of the ordinary before the MotM, it's 20%.

hmmm - but you haven't shown it was caused by the MoM award!

[KeeeeeeeBaaaaaaab]

Hard to show it was without saying "here's what we acheived before the award, here's what we acheived in the time the award was deserved, and here's what we acheived afterwards". Which I have.

Coincidence, then. Just asking the question, rather than presenting a thesis on it.

[Worthy4England]

Hard to show it was without saying "here's what we acheived before the award, here's what we acheived in the time the award was deserved, and here's what we acheived afterwards". Which I have.

Coincidence, then. Just asking the question, rather than presenting a thesis on it.

Three out of our last ten years in the Prem, our manager has been awarded the MotM in November. I don't think that's a spooky coincidence.

Our runs for the two months following it have netted:

14 points in 2003/4 - from 9 games. We also had 6 League and FA cup games over the same period. We beat Liverpool away in the league cup, beat Chelsea away and drew with Arsenal at home during this time.

7 points in 2008/9 - from 9 games. With only a single cup game in the same period.

7 points in 2010/11 - from 9 games. With only a single cup game in the same period.

So I think it's probably a bit of a fallacy.