Where will we finish?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Have to win all of the next 5 games, for me. We could maybe afford to draw one of the away games, but if it's the next one we could really see momentum stall.

Win the next four - Gills A, Morecambe H, Plymouth H, Crewe A: feasible - and let’s see where we are at. Pressure is sort of off now, and I am genuinely intrigued to see what Evatt can do with more training time for #Content #Download.

Fifth game is scheduled to be Pompey but likely to be off for internationals. So it could be Wigan - possibly brought forward to midweek if they reach Wembley in the Sherpa - as usual, we’ll see.

[Harry Genshaw]

I remain concerned at our away form. Too many shaky performances away from the Reebok for a side with promotion aspirations imo.

[Bruce Rioja]

I remain concerned at our away form. Too many shaky performances away from the Reebok for a side with promotion aspirations imo.

See, one of my mates holds a theory that clubs like us, Sheffield Wed's, Sunderland etc are at a disadvantage most of the time because we play on bowling greens one week and potato patches the next, whereas the likes of MK Dons play on a shitpot most weeks. I can see what he means although I'm not entirely sure I agree.

[BWFC_Insane]

I remain concerned at our away form. Too many shaky performances away from the Reebok for a side with promotion aspirations imo.

It speaks to where our weaknesses lie. You need a more robust midfield and back line to be consistently good away from home.

[officer_dibble]

And be able to score from set pieces, and ‘long passes’. We’re improving at this end and I think Evatt knows.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I remain concerned at our away form. Too many shaky performances away from the Reebok for a side with promotion aspirations imo.

See, one of my mates holds a theory that clubs like us, Sheffield Wed's, Sunderland etc are at a disadvantage most of the time because we play on bowling greens one week and potato patches the next, whereas the likes of MK Dons play on a shitpot most weeks. I can see what he means although I'm not entirely sure I agree.

We're also a name to beat, for a lot of clubs. That sounds big-headed when we've just been relegated twice and spent a basement season but I'm really not a Big Club Bore and it's a genuine belief. I'd wager there's more interest and delight (among players, fans and managers) in facing and beating us than there is in facing and beating Cheltenham, Cambridge, Morecambe, Crewe, Donny, Gillingham, Wombles, Fleetwood, Lincoln, Shrewsbury, Burton, Accy. Probably also clubs like Wycombe and McDons that have recently been up there, or big-hinterland clubs like Plymouth and Ipswich. Like it or not, there's a hierarchy in the divisions of English football and the Premier League is it, so teams like us, Sunderland, Wednesday and Wigan are big targets.

[BWFC_Insane]

And be able to score from set pieces, and ‘long passes’. We’re improving at this end and I think Evatt knows.

Yep. We need a stronger more physical midfield option in the summer…I like Morley but I don’t think at good sides away from home he’s the answer. At least not in the role he’s in. So another midfield player who can do the destructive side is good. As are some more reliable centre backs.

[TANGODANCER]

And be able to score from set pieces, and ‘long passes’. We’re improving at this end and I think Evatt knows.

Yep. We need a stronger more physical midfield option in the summer…I like Morley but I don’t think at good sides away from home he’s the answer. At least not in the role he’s in. So another midfield player who can do the destructive side is good. As are some more reliable centre backs.

A Scott Parker in his prime would do nicely...

[Worthy4England]

And be able to score from set pieces, and ‘long passes’. We’re improving at this end and I think Evatt knows.

Yep. We need a stronger more physical midfield option in the summer…I like Morley but I don’t think at good sides away from home he’s the answer. At least not in the role he’s in. So another midfield player who can do the destructive side is good. As are some more reliable centre backs.

I'm happy that we probably have our squad at a "baseline" now whereas prior to January we had glaring weaknesses. I'm not yet sure where that baseline is. It's comfortably above "relegation" at the moment. But I'm not sure it's top 6 yet (acknowledging that they've not had much training ground time - but neither have most other teams)

It's not looked competitive with the top 3 yet (other than the 3-3 against MKD) and just below that, maybe a bit more 50/50 although we've beaten Oxford twice, W1/L1 Sunderland, L1 Sheff, L1 Plymouth and L2 Wycombe, W2 v Ipswich.

And then when we look at 11-15, L1 Pompey, L1 Accrington, W1/L1 Cambridge, D1/L1 Burton, D1 Cheltenham.

I'm not sure I'm changing my initial pre-season punt of "somewhere between 8th and 12th" so the notion that we shouldn't continue to seek improvements in every area as we spin through transfer windows, seems strange.

[Prufrock]

I'm not sure results pre-Jan are particularly instructive in working out where our baseline is now, unless I've misunderstood what you mean by that.

If we were starting a new season today I'd say top-6 should be the minimum "success". We've played a range of sides in that time and only really MK Dons (flying themselves, at home) have outplayed us. Burton showed other weaknesses so I can see we're not the finished product but this is a different animal.

[Worthy4England]

I'm not sure results pre-Jan are particularly instructive in working out where our baseline is now, unless I've misunderstood what you mean by that.

If we were starting a new season today I'd say top-6 should be the minimum "success". We've played a range of sides in that time and only really MK Dons (flying themselves, at home) have outplayed us. Burton showed other weaknesses so I can see we're not the finished product but this is a different animal.

Don't think you've misunderstood I think we're probably at a baseline level now, for the first time in years, I haven't made my mind up whether that's a top 6 baseline level yet. Obviously we slaughtered Sunderland (but they'd probably argue they weren't on their best form), and we won a close one v Oxford. We weren't very close to MKD or Burton...

So I can't work out whether I'm seeing a top 6 team at the moment or a 7-12 team

[Prufrock]

All fair enough. Over the past ten games though (best I could find, but taking us back to mid -Jan which probably seems "fair" for the latest squad) we're third, only 3 points off top and one point behind that MK Dons side. And fully a point a game better than 12th.

Obviously a relatively small sample (though much bigger than looking at individual games).

I don't think 7-12 would be an insane view, but it looks to point a lot more towards 1-6 to me.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

This is a neat visual idea of where we're at (or where the season-long "we" has been at). Fleetwood monsoon apart, too good for the bottom 9; very frequently losing, usually to nil, against the top 8; mixed against the middle (although most were away).
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results.jpg (70.41 KiB) Viewed 957 times

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In and of itself, that's not exactly earth-shattering: better than the worst, worse than the best. Quite well-defined in this instance, though. I said pre-season I expected us to be in the middle third and despite a month's worry followed by a month's hope, we seem on course for that. What might be interesting is filling the above in at season's end for "Wanderers 2.0".

(Also somewhat interesting that all three auto-promoted signs are safely mid-table; not sure how common that is, although I'd argue the gap between D4 & D3 is significantly narrower than the two interdivisional gaps above it.

[BWFC_Insane]

DP

[BWFC_Insane]

And be able to score from set pieces, and ‘long passes’. We’re improving at this end and I think Evatt knows.

Yep. We need a stronger more physical midfield option in the summer…I like Morley but I don’t think at good sides away from home he’s the answer. At least not in the role he’s in. So another midfield player who can do the destructive side is good. As are some more reliable centre backs.

I'm happy that we probably have our squad at a "baseline" now whereas prior to January we had glaring weaknesses. I'm not yet sure where that baseline is. It's comfortably above "relegation" at the moment. But I'm not sure it's top 6 yet (acknowledging that they've not had much training ground time - but neither have most other teams)

It's not looked competitive with the top 3 yet (other than the 3-3 against MKD) and just below that, maybe a bit more 50/50 although we've beaten Oxford twice, W1/L1 Sunderland, L1 Sheff, L1 Plymouth and L2 Wycombe, W2 v Ipswich.

And then when we look at 11-15, L1 Pompey, L1 Accrington, W1/L1 Cambridge, D1/L1 Burton, D1 Cheltenham.

I'm not sure I'm changing my initial pre-season punt of "somewhere between 8th and 12th" so the notion that we shouldn't continue to seek improvements in every area as we spin through transfer windows, seems strange.

I’d say up front we have more than enough if everyone stays.

Midfield we lack some bite and backbone for trips like Saturday. And at the back.

Obviously nobody would say no to another forward but we have a lot of good players in those areas and more to add. Whereas MJ is our only stopping style midfield player and is arguably struggling a bit with the workload and perhaps a drop in confidence. And some games you need two midfield lads who can dig in and I feel that area we’ve lacked all season and that needs fixing.

I think, Dapo, Baka, Bod, Charles, Sadlier, Kachunga is enough firepower to get us up. It’s the other way I don’t think we can compete with the top few sides yet on.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I think, Dapo, Baka, Bod, Charles, Sadlier, Kachunga is enough firepower to get us up. It’s the other way I don’t think we can compete with the top few sides yet on.

Yeah, I'd agree. I spent most of autumn and early winter arguing (principally with you!) that we weren't scoring enough either; I don't think that's now a problem, but we're still conceding. Those four clean sheets in the first four games post-rejig (and Trafford's debut) now seem a long time ago; frequently we've got points anyway, but "the hard way" but equalising or coming from behind.

Over the season, only five teams have scored more than us, but only nine teams have conceded more. We've conceded 47 in 35 games, and while Rotherham's 19 is an extraordinary outlier, it's no coincidence that Wigan are second with 32, that McDons, Wednesday and Pompey are on 35, Plymouth on 39. Concede more than a goal a game and you're really setting yourself a big task.

That said, our total is swollen by us losing a fair few games by 2+ goals, usually while going shit-or-bust. Let's do a little thought experiment, dividing concessions per game into two groups: firstly 0 and 1 goals conceded (from which points are usually gettable) and 2+ (from which they rarely are). We've had 21 games conceding 0/1, versus 14 conceding 2+. Ridiculous Rotherham are 32 v 2, but McDons are 26 v 9. So-called comedy club Sunderland are 25 v 10. Wigan are 23 v 9, Wednesday 23 v 10, Wycombe 23 v 11, Oxford 23 v 12. They've all managed to keep the oppo (fairly) quiet more often than we have, and that's part of the reason they're above us.

[BWFC_Insane]

I think, Dapo, Baka, Bod, Charles, Sadlier, Kachunga is enough firepower to get us up. It’s the other way I don’t think we can compete with the top few sides yet on.

Yeah, I'd agree. I spent most of autumn and early winter arguing (principally with you!) that we weren't scoring enough either; I don't think that's now a problem, but we're still conceding. Those four clean sheets in the first four games post-rejig (and Trafford's debut) now seem a long time ago; frequently we've got points anyway, but "the hard way" but equalising or coming from behind.

Over the season, only five teams have scored more than us, but only nine teams have conceded more. We've conceded 47 in 35 games, and while Rotherham's 19 is an extraordinary outlier, it's no coincidence that Wigan are second with 32, that McDons, Wednesday and Pompey are on 35, Plymouth on 39. Concede more than a goal a game and you're really setting yourself a big task.

That said, our total is swollen by us losing a fair few games by 2+ goals, usually while going shit-or-bust. Let's do a little thought experiment, dividing concessions per game into two groups: firstly 0 and 1 goals conceded (from which points are usually gettable) and 2+ (from which they rarely are). We've had 21 games conceding 0/1, versus 14 conceding 2+. Ridiculous Rotherham are 32 v 2, but McDons are 26 v 9. So-called comedy club Sunderland are 25 v 10. Wigan are 23 v 9, Wednesday 23 v 10, Wycombe 23 v 11, Oxford 23 v 12. They've all managed to keep the oppo (fairly) quiet more often than we have, and that's part of the reason they're above us.

Yeah and it’s completely unrealistic to defend at places like MK Dons by just keeping the ball. Or indeed across a whole season. You get games like Burton where you have to actually defend your box. So this is where we need players better able to do these jobs. In the back line and in midfield.

No matter how you argue it if we had a stable base we could go away and with our firepower usually score. But if you concede goals first it’s no good. You need to sometimes just accept you stay in a game and dig it out and last twenty minutes the chance might open up. Not play like that every week but sometimes it’s needed. I don’t think we have the qualities mental or physical to do that and it’s there we need to improve to challenge the top sides next season. If we get that right we should win this league.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Last spring we could keep it tight early then score. Trips to Vale, FGR, Salford, Morecambe. But it's a higher bar to do that in this division and I also think we lost some solidity compared to the 4-2-3-1; the early 4-3-3 asked MJ to do twice the job in a higher division, and even though we've now switched shape again, we're still conceding.

I do think Evatt has intended to "keep it tight then score" this season - think he was talking about it before Oxford, IIRC. I suspect it's one of the reasons he's been using Dapo from the bench - run at them later on as a "finisher". So he's not averse to it, but we haven't managed it much. Maybe Shrewsbury.

It's also knowing when to do it. Should we try to keep it tight this weekend at relegation-headed Gills?

[Worthy4England]

What did you think of MK's defenders at weekend, Insano? (If you caught the match). To me, that was the sort of difference between what we have and what we need...

[TANGODANCER]

What did you think of MK's defenders at weekend, Insano? (If you caught the match). To me, that was the sort of difference between what we have and what we need...

Not just the quality of the defenders, but the schooling of the defence in general. As I said at the time, they kept us wide, tackled in numbers and didn't run off us at all. At times when they sent a skilled ball forwards our half looked like a scene from a wasteland movie..Set pieces were our only hope of scoring and they were generally easily dealt with by a good defence. Don't aren't third-placed for no reason..