January 2022 Transfer Thread

[Harry Genshaw]

The interviewer for Trafford's promo vid kept saying "To give nothing away" and the like about the kid starting on Saturday.

I'd be astounded if he starts tomorrow. Very risky move by Evatt if he does.

[GhostoftheBok]

The most promising suggestion has been Jon Dadi Bodvarsson, who played for Iceland in the game that put England out. Still only 29, frozen out completely at Millwall. Usually deployed off the right, but when played through the middle at Reading he scored a few in the Championship.

[BWFC_Insane]

The interviewer for Trafford's promo vid kept saying "To give nothing away" and the like about the kid starting on Saturday.

I'd be astounded if he starts tomorrow. Very risky move by Evatt if he does.

Is playing Dixon considered ‘safe’? If we’ve signed a keeper it’s presumably as an improvement.

I can’t imagine we’ve signed him to sit on the bench as that wouldn’t work for any party involved, City, player or ourselves.

So I imagine he starts.

[BWFC_Insane]

The most promising suggestion has been Jon Dadi Bodvarsson, who played for Iceland in the game that out England out. Still only 29, frozen out completely at Millwall. Usually deployed off the right, but when played through the middle at Reading he scored a few in the Championship.

Of the ones you’ve named it makes sense to be honest. Big lad too. Play a couple of positions in the front three. Bit like Bakayoko I guess but better.

[GhostoftheBok]

Of the ones you’ve named it makes sense to be honest. Big lad too. Play a couple of positions in the front three. Bit like Bakayoko I guess but better.

Also seems unlikely Millwall would want any money for him.

[The_Gun]

Looks like his goalscoring record in England is roughly 1 in 7 - is that really the kind of player we need right now? I think I'd rather have a young loan striker who might actually be able to stick the ball in the net.

[Harry Genshaw]

The interviewer for Trafford's promo vid kept saying "To give nothing away" and the like about the kid starting on Saturday.

I'd be astounded if he starts tomorrow. Very risky move by Evatt if he does.

Is playing Dixon considered ‘safe’? If we’ve signed a keeper it’s presumably as an improvement.

I can’t imagine we’ve signed him to sit on the bench as that wouldn’t work for any party involved, City, player or ourselves.

So I imagine he starts.

I think you're right but we signed a PL academy keeper last year and I dont think he even made the bench.

Putting a young, inexperienced man behind a shaky back line is either very bold or very risky.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Keeper: Evatt’s quotes on this morning’s story seem not only v positive about Trafford but also talking about sometimes having to rest a player to reset his confidence, etc. I think it’s a close decision and I wouldn’t even surprised if Trafford starts. If Dixon does, he’s one mistake from being dropped.

Striker: First name I thought of was Hal Robson-Kanu. But Bodvarsson does fit the bill of lapsing contract, unwanted player. I noticed him when I was doing one round-up - he definitely seems free to go, it would probably just be about negotiating wages with him and, if smaller than his Millwall wage, a possible part payout from them (cutting their losses).

Wasn’t there a midfielder I mentioned that Millwall were pushing out? ISTR Ghost thinking he would be an excellent signing.

[GhostoftheBok]

Wasn’t there a midfielder I mentioned that Millwall were pushing out? ISTR Ghost thinking he would be an excellent signing.

Ben Thompson?

[GhostoftheBok]

On the centre backs front, Curtis Tilt is suddenly available for transfer, with Rotherham having recalled him so they can get some cash before his deal expires. 100% an Ian Evatt centre back.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

On the centre backs front, Curtis Tilt is suddenly available for transfer, with Rotherham having recalled him so they can get some cash before his deal expires. 100% an Ian Evatt centre back.

Out of interest, and not to set a trap, how would you define an Evatt centre-back? Which filters in the algorithm, so to speak?

[GhostoftheBok]

Out of interest, and not to set a trap, how would you define an Evatt centre-back? Which filters in the algorithm, so to speak?

I think ideally you're looking at pace, power, ability to carry the ball etc. Basically Santos, but with more solidity and aggression.

[GhostoftheBok]

Tilt will almost certainly go back to Wigan, but his availability changes things for me and we should enquire.

He is exactly what Evatt needs at the back and there's unlikely to be a better footballing option available in the summer, although finances might be the biggest issue.

[BWFC_Insane]

Looks like his goalscoring record in England is roughly 1 in 7 - is that really the kind of player we need right now? I think I'd rather have a young loan striker who might actually be able to stick the ball in the net.

He’s also not played much for a 29 year old. It’s very hypothetical right now as nobody has any idea who we are after. He’s not ideal but the other names mentioned seem unlikely to me.

This one would fit more seeing as he’s out of favour and covers a couple of positions in the front line something Evatt claimed he wanted. 14 in 29 league starts at Reading if soccerbase is right so that form would be superb. But as you say it looks a highlight rather than a consistency.

Not sure I agree on young striker though. Sure If they are good. But plenty of premiership youngish loans won’t make an impact. And we are in the coal face.

[GhostoftheBok]

I don't have the data available to do the analysis (maybe Brommers does?), but it'd be interesting to see where Bod's goal scoring issues lie and whether he's likely to up his productivity one league down. The fact he had an okay rate at Viking and Reading, over three seasons, suggests he can finish.

[Worthy4England]

Out of interest, and not to set a trap, how would you define an Evatt centre-back? Which filters in the algorithm, so to speak?

I think ideally you're looking at pace, power, ability to carry the ball etc. Basically Santos, but with more solidity and aggression.

I know we're trying to go, "don't let it get to the defence" and should it get somewhere near, "pace, positioning" to cut it out is great. And of course they have to be able to "kick it straight/bring it out"....but no one seems to mention "can head" and "can tackle" as primary attributes anymore. That's the minimum, I suspect many people watching are looking for, because when the advanced threat hunting breaks down, you still need someone who can man the gates, to stop the nasties passing through...We've seen plenty of "zonal marking" type bollocks where there's a defender stood in the middle of a great space, as the attacker roams into the free space to nod it in the top corner and they all look at each other with that "well I had my space well patrolled, it's right here in the book" look...

There's an analogy with IT security - yesterday's model was "react and try and stop it at the door" today's "vogue" is all about advanced threat hunting, ensuring attacks don't start in the first place etc. But you know what? We still have the gatekeepers, because we know some will get through and clearing up that mess is much nearer "proper in the shit" than all the fancy analytics we can show about how many threats we stopped at the advance line. They become a non-important element, at that point.

[GhostoftheBok]

You took a while to type that, Worthy, which I appreciate - but I did say basically Santos but with more solidity. IE, someone who can defend better.

Not entirely sure why you felt those two paragraphs were necessary after that.

[Worthy4England]

I don't think Evatt has got the balance quite right on the defensive side of defenders...

(oh and it's a forum, so people type "stuff" )

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I wish to make it clear that I think a centre-back should be able to head and tackle. Preferably really quite well.

I also feel that in Evatt's game he needs to be fast, because we play a high line; and should preferably be able to pass, because that's important to our game, the ability to be able to switch it.

For me, personally, I'd be willing to trade a little of the passing ability for a bit more of the heading/tackling ability and the less discernible organisation/leading quality. Back in the early fanzine days we called Chris Fairclough "10-yard Chris" because none of his passes were ever longer than that – but it wasn't a criticism: just get the ball and give it. Many excellent centyre-backs have been "beauty and the beast" pairings, from Gary Jones and Sam Allardyce all the way to the disappointingly successful Ferdinand and Vidic. These days there are more Virgil Van Dijk types who do both but they're not cheap or often discarded.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Wasn’t there a midfielder I mentioned that Millwall were pushing out? ISTR Ghost thinking he would be an excellent signing.

Ben Thompson?

Sounds right. ta

I don't have the data available to do the analysis (maybe Brommers does?), but it'd be interesting to see where Bod's goal scoring issues lie and whether he's likely to up his productivity one league down. The fact he had an okay rate at Viking and Reading, over three seasons, suggests he can finish.

Some of that will be qualitative analysis - such as Bruce Rioja's scouting mate explaining that Andy Walker would never had made a top-(English-)flight player because he tended to take a touch before finishing – but here's some quant with a quick look at Bodvarsson’s 2020/21 season, when he played 38 times but only scored 1 and assisted 2.

First thing to note is that of his 38 league appearances, 25 were as sub – and of his 13 starts, he was brought off in all but one. In all, he played 1,375 minutes – a little over 15 “games” at 90 minutes. And while there are strikers, particularly pacy ones, who thrive on being late subs, there are also those who are brought on to do a job: to hold the ball up, to help defend corners, etc. Clearly Millwall relied on him heavily - only five outfielders played more games. Equally clearly they have completely discarded him this season.

So let’s do the usual thing of comparing his stats (per 90 minutes) with other Champo strikers who made more than 20 appearances (a cohort of about 65 players).

He had 1.6 shots per 90 (57th in the cohort), and 1.2 of them from within the area (47th: for comparison, Kachunga had 1.1 in total, but 0.6 inside the box - the division’s second-lowest). He put 0.6 shots off-target (again, 57th) and 0.6 on target (a slightly better 52nd) with 0.5 blocked (a relatively high 35th).

His shooting numbers were similar to QPR’s Scotland striker Lyndon Dykes, although Dykes’ goal return of 12 from 42 was much better.

He contested 15.7 aerial duels – 9th in the division, although only just more than half of his team-mate Matt Smith, suggesting Millwall didn’t mind popping it in the mixer. He won 6.1 duels per 90 (10th) and lost 9.7 (5th). His aerial numbers were roughly similar to Rotherham’s Michael Smith, QPR’s Dykes, Wednesday’s Callum Patterson and our old friend Lukas Jutkiewicz.

He was dispossessed 1.7 times per 90 (20th) and lost possession through miscontrol a worrying 4.2 times (6th) – although, again, we have to consider that long-ball teams often just pog it forward for folks to control, and even Kevin Davies turned over possession roughly 50% of the time.

He attempted 24.4 passes (18th), of which 14 (23rd) were accurate short balls and only 0.1 (61st) were accurate long balls; however, as he was also 53rd for *inaccurate* long balls (0.2 per 90) it suggests he was the target man rather than the targeter. His 0.6 key passes (ie those which led directly to an attempt on goal) is 54th.

On the other side, he attempted 1.3 tackles (28th) and won 0.9 tackles (18th; for comparison, Kachunga attempted 1.7 and made 1.4). He made 0.4 interceptions (16th; Kacha 9th with 0.6) but only made 0.5 clearances (48th); considering his colleague Matt Smith topped the division with 2.4, that again suggests that when defending corners Bodvarsson was the out-ball rather than an auxiliary centre-back.